《ShlomoBenartzi_2011S[施洛莫.贝纳兹][为未来而存款].pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《ShlomoBenartzi_2011S[施洛莫.贝纳兹][为未来而存款].pdf（7页珍藏版）》请在taowenge.com淘文阁网|工程机械CAD图纸|机械工程制图|CAD装配图下载|SolidWorks_CaTia_CAD_UG_PROE_设计图分享下载上搜索。
1、www.XiYuS锡育软件Im going to talk today about saving more,but not today,tomorrow.今天我要谈一谈存钱 但不是今天开始存钱 而是明天存钱00:12Im going to talk about Save More Tomorrow.我将要谈的是:明天存更多的钱00:18Its a program that Richard Thaler from the University ofChicago and I devised maybe 15 years ago.这是芝加哥大学的 理查德 泰勒和我 在15年前设计的一个项目00:2
2、0The program,in a sense,is an example of behavioral financeon steroids-how we could really use behavioral finance.在某种意义上 这个项目是广义的 行为金融学 我们怎样才能真正地利用行为金融学00:27Now you might ask,what is behavioral finance?现在也许你会问 什么是行为金融学00:36So lets think about how we manage our money.那让我们考虑一下 我们是如何管理我们的钱的00:39Lets st
3、art with mortgages.让我们从贷款开始00:42Its kind of a recent topic,at least in the U.S.这个话题很新 至少在美国很新00:45A lot of people buy the biggest house they can afford,andactually slightly bigger than that.很多人买的房子都是 他们能支付得起的最大的房子 而且实际上,比那种还要再大一些。00:49And then they foreclose.之后,他们的财产被银行收走了。00:57And then they blame t
4、he banks for being the bad guys whogave them the mortgages.然后他们就开始责备银行,因为银行不好,给了他们贷款。01:00Thaler:n.泰勒(德国的旧银币名)devised:v.设计(devise的过去式和过去分词);计划;发明 in a sense:在某种意义上behavioral:adj.行为的 steroids:n.生化类固醇(steroid的复数形式);甾体 mortgages:n.抵押贷款;房屋贷款(mortgage的复数);财产贷款/v.经抵押(mortgage的三单形式)foreclose:vt.阻止;排除;取消抵押品
5、赎回权/vi.取消抵押品赎回权Lets also think about how we manage risks-for example,investing in the stock market.让我们也来想一下 我们如何管理风险:比如说,投资股票市场。01:05Two years ago,three years ago,about four years ago,markets did well.两年或三年,甚至是四年以前,股市很好01:11We were risk takers,of course.当然,当时我们也是风险承担者。01:16Then market stocks seize a
6、nd were like,Wow.之后股市开始缩水 而我们就开始感叹01:19These losses,they feel,emotionally,they feel very differentfrom what we actually thought about it when markets weregoing up.从情感上而言,他们会觉得这些损失 与我们实际的想象中 市场会回升的时间 有很大差距01:23So were probably not doing a great job when it comes torisk taking.当涉及风险的时候 我们做的也许不是很好01:34
7、How many of you have iPhones?你们中多少人有iPhone？01:39Anyone?Wonderful.有人吗？太好了。01:42I would bet many more of you insure your iPhone-youreimplicitly buying insurance by having an extended warranty.我打赌你们中许多人 都给你们的iPhone上了保险延长保修期也是一种隐性的保险01:45What if you lose your iPhone?如果你的iPhone丢了怎么办？01:54investing:n.机熔模铸
8、造/v.投资;授与(invest的现在分词)stock market:股票市场;证券市场;股票交易 takers:n.接受者;购买者(taker的复数)stocks:n.金融股票;贸易存货;库存量(stock的复数)/v.采购;有的存货;贮存(stock的第三人称单数)seize:vt.抓住;夺取;理解;逮捕/vi.抓住;利用;(机器)卡住 emotionally:adv.感情上;情绪上;令人激动地;情绪冲动地 implicitly:adv.含蓄地;暗中地 warranty:n.保证;担保;授权;(正当)理由What if you do this?如果发生了其他事情怎么办？01:56How m
9、any of you have kids?你们当中多少人有孩子?01:58Anyone?多少人？02:00Keep your hands up if you have sufficient life insurance.如果你有足够的人寿保险 请继续举着手不要放下02:02I see a lot of hands coming down.我看到很多手放下去了。02:07I would predict,if youre a representative sample,that manymore of you insure your iPhones than your lives,even whe
10、nyou have kids.我预计说,如果你是一个代表性样本 那么你们给iPhone上的保险 比你们的寿险还要多 有了孩子也是一样。02:09Were not doing that well when it comes to insurance.每当谈及保险的时候,我们做的都不够好。02:20The average American household spends 1,000 dollars a yearon lotteries.美国一般家庭 每年花费1000美元 在乐透彩上。02:23TED演讲者：Shlomo Benartzi|施洛莫.贝纳兹演讲标题：Shlomo Benartzi:S
11、aving for tomorrow,tomorrow|为未来而存款内容概要：Shlomo Benartzi uses behavioral economics to study how and why we plan well forthe future(or fail to),and uses that to develop new programs to encourage saving forretirement.想要下周开始存钱是很容易的，那么现在就开始怎么样?一般而言，我们总是想花钱。经济学家施洛莫.贝纳兹说，这是存钱养老的过程中最大的困难之一，同时，他还提出了问题:如何将这种行为
12、挑战变为解决方案呢?And I know it sounds crazy.我知道这听起来很疯狂。02:32How many of you spend a thousand dollars a year onlotteries?在座各位有多人每年花1000美元在乐透彩上？02:35No one.没有人02:38So that tells us that the people not in this room are spendingmore than a thousand to get the average to a thousand.这就告诉了我们,没在这间屋子里面的人 每年花在乐透彩上的钱
13、超过了1000美元 这才能让平均值保持在1000美元02:40Low-income people spend a lot more than a thousand onlotteries.低收入人群 花在乐透彩上的钱远远超出了1000美元02:48So where does it take us?那么这会如何影响我们呢02:54Were not doing a great job managing money.我们并不是很擅长于管理钱02:56lotteries:彩票Behavioral finance is really a combination of psychology andecon
14、omics,trying to understand the money mistakes peoplemake.行为经济学实际上是 心理学和经济学的结合 请试着理解一下 人们所犯的有关于金钱的错误02:59And I can keep standing here for the 12 minutes and 53seconds that I have left and make fun of all sorts of ways wemanage money,and at the end youre going to ask,Howcan we help people?在剩下的12分53秒中
15、我可以一直在这里站着 取笑我们管理金钱的 各种方法。结束的时候你们就会问:“我们如何才能帮补别人呢”？03:08And thats what I really want to focus on today.这才是我今天想讲的重点03:21How do we take an understanding of the money mistakespeople make,and then turning the behavioral challengesinto behavioral solutions?我们如何理解 别人在管理金钱上犯的错误 并且改变这些行为上的挑战 使其变为解决方案？03:24A
16、nd what Im going to talk about today is Save MoreTomorrow.今天我将要讲的是 增加未来的储蓄03:34I want to address the issue of savings.我想讨论一下 储蓄的问题03:38We have on the screen a representative sample of 100Americans.在屏幕上 有一个100个美国人的 代表性样本03:42And were going to look at their saving behavior.我们将会看一下他们的储蓄行为03:48First thi
17、ng to notice is,half of them do not even have accessto a 401(k)plan.首先需要注意的是 他们当中一半人 都没有 加入401退休福利计划03:51They cannot make savings easy.他们想要储蓄很不容易03:59They cannot have money go away from their paycheck into a401(k)plan before they see it,before they can touch it.他们不能将钱一眼不看 一分不动地 投入到 401退休福利计划当中04:02p
18、sychology:n.心理学;心理状态 make fun of:取笑What about the remaining half of the people?那么剩下的一半人呢04:11Some of them elect not to save.他们中的一部分选择不储蓄04:14Theyre just too lazy.他们只是太懒了04:17They never get around to logging into a complicatedwebsite and doing 17 clicks to join the 401(k)plan.他们从来不愿意登录一个比较复杂的网站 并且点击1
19、7下鼠标 加入401退休福利计划04:19www.XiYuS锡育软件And then they have to decide how theyre going to invest intheir 52 choices,and they never heard about what is a moneymarket fund.然后他们需要决定如何投资 52种不同的计划 他们也从未听说过什么是货币市场基金04:25And they get overwhelmed and the just dont join.他们应接不暇,所以也就不了了之了04:33How many people end up s
20、aving to a 401(k)plan?有多少人最后会加入401退休福利计划呢04:35One third of Americans.三分之一的美国人04:40Two thirds are not saving now.三分之二的美国人现在没有在储蓄04:43Are they saving enough?他们存够钱了么04:45Take out those who say they save too little.除去那些 说自己没有存钱的人。04:47One out of 10 are saving enough.10个人里面有一个人 存的钱是足够的。04:51Nine out of 1
21、0 either cannot save through their 401(k)plan,decide not to save-or dont decide-or save too little.10个人中有9个 或者是不能通过401退休福利计划存款 或者是决定不存款,或者还没决定存不存款 或者存款少的微乎其微04:56We think we have a problem of people saving too much.我想那些存款过多的人 面临着一个问题05:07get around:到处走走;逃避;说服;传开来(等于getround);有办法应付;有办法应付局面 logging:n.
22、记录;伐木工作/v.把锯成段木;砍伐树木(log的ing形式)overwhelmed:v.受打击,压倒(overwhelm的过去式);淹没/adj.受宠若惊的,使不知所措Lets look at that.让我们来看一下05:11We have one person-well,actually were going to slice himin half because its less than one percent.我们有一个人 实际上 我们只算他的一半 因为这个数据是少于1%的05:13Roughly half a percent of Americans feel that they
23、 save toomuch.大约有0.5%的美国人 认为他们存的钱太多了05:21What are we going to do about it?那么我们该如何对待这件事情呢05:29Thats what I really want to focus on.这就是为什么我想将重点放在这上05:31We have to understand why people are not saving,and thenwe can hopefully flip the behavioral challenges intobehavioral solutions,and then see how powe
24、rful it might be.我们需要理解 人们不去储蓄的原因 这样我们才有希望跨过 行为上的障碍 将其变为解决方式 并且看一下这会有多强大05:33So let me divert for a second as were going to identify theproblems,the challenges,the behavioral challenges,thatprevent people from saving.所以请给我一秒钟转移话题 因为我们即将要找到那些问题 人们在储蓄上面对的 挑战,行为上的挑战05:46Im going to divert and talk abou
25、t bananas and chocolate.我想先谈一下香蕉和巧克力05:55Suppose we had another wonderful TED event next week.假设我们下周还有一次美好的TED讲座05:59And during the break there would be a snack and you couldchoose bananas or chocolate.那么在休息期间 会有茶点提供 你有香蕉或者是巧克力可以选择06:02How many of you think you would like to have bananasduring this
26、hypothetical TED event next week?那么各位有多少人在这场假想的讲座的茶歇间 会选择吃香蕉呢06:08divert:vt.转移;使欢娱;使转向/vi.转移 hypothetical:adj.假设的;爱猜想的Who would go for bananas?有多少人吃香蕉,请举手06:13Wonderful.很好06:15I predict scientifically 74 percent of you will go for bananas.我从科学角度预计 你们当中有74%的人会选择香蕉。06:17Well thats at least what one wo
27、nderful study predicted.至少一个很好的研究也应该能预测到这一点06:22And then count down the days and see what people endedup eating.然后让我们等到那一天 看看人们最后吃的什么吧06:27The same people that imagined themselves eating thebananas ended up eating chocolates a week later.那些想象着自己 吃香蕉的人 一周之后 吃的都是巧克力。06:35Self-control is not a problem
28、in the future.自控能力 不是未来的一个问题06:44Its only a problem now when the chocolate is next to us.当巧克力就在我们手边的时候 这就是一个现在的问题06:49What does it have to do with time and savings,this issue ofimmediate gratification?这与时间,与储蓄有什么关系呢 与这种即时的喜悦又有什么关系呢06:55Or as some economists call it,present bias.一些经济学家将其称为,及时性偏见07:01
29、We think about saving.We know we should be saving.我们总是想着储蓄。我们知道我们应该储蓄07:05We know well do it next year,but today let us go and spend.我们知道我们明年会做 但是今天我们还是先消费吧07:07Christmas is coming,we might as well buy a lot of gifts foreveryone we know.圣诞节快到了 我们会给认识的所有人都买礼物07:10predicted:adj.预测的/v.预计(predict的过去分词);
30、预示 chocolates:n.巧克力糖(chocolate的复数形式)Self-control:n.克己,自我控制 have to do with:与有关 gratification:n.满意;喜悦;使人满意之事 might as well:不妨,何妨;还是的好So this issue of present bias causes us to think about saving,but end up spending.所以这种及时性偏见 让我们想的是储蓄 但却以花钱告终07:15Let me now talk about another behavioral obstacle to sa
31、vinghaving to do with inertia.让我再谈一个 与惰性有关的 储蓄的行为障碍07:23But again,a little diversion to the topic of organ donation.但是同样 我需要先岔开一下话题 谈一下器官捐赠07:29Wonderful study comparing different countries.这是一个有关不同国家的非常好的比较研究07:34Were going to look at two similar countries,Germany andAustria.我们将要看两个相像的国家 德国和奥地利07:3
32、7And in Germany,if you would like to donate your organs-God forbid something really bad happens to you-whenyou get your driving license or an I.D.,you check the boxsaying,I would like to donate my organs.在德国 如果你想要捐赠器官 希望上帝是可以 保佑你的 在你在拿到驾照或者是身份证的时候 你需要在方框中打勾来说明“我想要捐赠器官”。07:43Not many people like chec
33、king boxes.没有多少人在方框中打勾07:58It takes effort.You need to think.这需要很大努力 你需要再三考虑08:00Twelve percent do.有12%的人选择捐赠08:02Austria,a neighboring country,slightly similar,slightlydifferent.在邻国奥地利 情况略有相似,却也有些不同08:05Whats the difference?那么什么地方不同呢08:10Well,you still have choice.那就是你还是有选择的08:12inertia:n.力惯性;惰性,迟钝
34、;不活动 diversion:n.转移;消遣;分散注意力 neighboring:adj.邻近的;附近的(等于neighbouring)/v.与为邻;位于附近(neighbor的ing形式)You will decide whether you want to donate your organs ornot.你需要决定 你是不是想要捐赠器官08:14But when you get your driving license,you check the box ifyou do not want to donate your organ.但是当你拿到驾照的时候 如果你不想捐赠器官 你需要在方框
35、中打勾08:19Nobody checks boxes.没有人在方框中打勾08:27Thats kind of too much effort.这太费劲了08:29One percent check the box.The rest do nothing.只有1%的人打了勾 其他的人什么都没有做08:31Doing nothing is very common.无所事事是很正常的08:34Not many people check boxes.只有少部分人在方框中打勾08:36What are the implications to saving lives and having organs
36、available?那么救助他人性命 和器官捐赠 有什么影响呢08:39In Germany,12 percent check the box.在德国 有12%的人打了勾08:46Twelve percent are organ donors.有12%的人是器官捐赠者08:48Huge shortage of organs,God forbid,if you need one.器官短缺非常严重 上帝保佑你,如果你需要一个的话08:51In Austria,again,nobody checks the box.在奥地利,同样的,没有人勾上了方框08:55Therefore,99 percent
37、 of people are organ donors.因此 99%的人都是 器官捐赠者08:58Inertia,lack of action.惰性 缺乏行动09:03What is the default setting if people do nothing,if they keepprocrastinating,if they dont check the boxes?如果人们什么也不做 那么默认的什么就是什么 如果他们一直拖延下去,如果他们不选择呢09:05implications:n.蕴涵式;暗指,暗示;含蓄,含意;卷入(implication的复数)donors:n.捐赠人(do
38、nor的复数);电子施主procrastinating:v.拖延;耽搁(procrastinate的ing形式)Very powerful.这是很有力的09:12Were going to talk about what happens if people areoverwhelmed and scared to make their 401(k)choices.我们将会谈一谈 如果人们很害怕选择投资401退休福利计划时 该怎么办09:14Are we going to make them automatically join the plan,orare they going to be l
39、eft out?我们是应该让他们自愿加入计划,还是让他们被落下09:23In too many 401(k)plans,if people do nothing,it meanstheyre not saving for retirement,if they dont check the box.在许多401退休福利计划当中 如果人们什么也不做这就意味着如果他们不在方框中打勾 他们就没有为未来存钱09:28And checking the box takes effort.而打勾是花费精力的09:38So weve chatted about a couple of behavioral ch
40、allenges.我们已经谈及了几个行为障碍09:41One more before we flip the challenges into solutions,havingto do with monkeys and apples.在我们跨过挑战讨论解决方案之前 我们再来谈一个 这个与猴子和苹果有关系09:44No,no,no,this is a real study and its got a lot to do withbehavioral economics.不 不 不 这是一项存在的研究 与行为经济学有很大关系09:49One group of monkeys gets an app
41、le,theyre pretty happy.有一组猴子得到了一个苹果 它们很高兴09:55The other group gets two apples,one is taken away.另一组猴子得到了两个苹果 但是有一个被拿走了09:58They still have an apple left.它们只剩下了一个苹果10:00Theyre really mad.它们就非常的愤怒10:02Why have you taken our apple?为什么要拿走我们的苹果10:05This is the notion of loss aversion.这就是由损失引起的厌恶情绪10:08au
42、tomatically:adv.自动地;机械地;无意识地/adj.不经思索的 aversion:n.厌恶;讨厌的人We hate losing stuff,even if it doesnt mean a lot of risk.我们讨厌失去东西 即使我们并不会因此承担多大风险10:11You would hate to go to the ATM,take out 100 dollars andnotice that you lost one of those$20 bills.如果你去自动取款机取出100美元 然后发现你丢了其中的20美元 你很可能会很愤恨10:16Its very pai
43、nful,even though it doesnt mean anything.即使这并不意味着任何事情 这还是非常令人心痛的10:23Those 20 dollars might have been a quick lunch.这20美元很可能代表着一顿午餐10:27So this notion of loss aversion kicks in when it comes tosavings too,because people,mentally and emotionally andintuitively frame savings as a loss because I have t
44、o cut myspending.所以这种对损失的愤恨情绪 在储蓄的时候同样也会发生 因为人们 从精神上,情感上和本能上 都认为储蓄是一种损失 因为我需要减少花销10:31So we talked about all sorts of behavioral challenges havingto do with savings eventually.那让我们来讨论一下 最终可能会影响到储蓄的 各种行为上的困难10:48Whether you think about immediate gratification,and thechocolates versus bananas,its just
45、 painful to save now.无论你想到的是不是即时的喜悦 还是巧克力与香蕉之间的选择 从现在开始存款就是很令人心痛的。10:56Its a lot more fun to spend now.现在开始花钱 却有趣得多11:05We talked about inertia and organ donations and checkingthe box.我们讨论了惰性与器官捐赠 以及是否在方框内打勾11:09If people have to check a lot of boxes to join a 401(k)plan,theyre going to keep procras
46、tinating and not join.如果人们需要打很多个勾 才能加入401退休福利计划的话 他们就会搁置下这件事 选择不去参加theyre going to keep procrastinating and not join.11:14mentally:adv.精神上,智力上;心理上 intuitively:adv.直观地;直觉地 versus:prep.对；与.相对；对抗 donations:n.经捐赠(donation的复数);捐款And last,we talked about loss aversion,and the monkeys andthe apples.最后,我们来谈
47、下由损失引起的厌恶情绪 以及猴子和苹果的故事11:22If people frame mentally saving for retirement as a loss,theyre not going to be saving for retirement.如果人们在思想上认为 为退休而储蓄是一种损失的话 他们就不会打算为退休而储蓄11:26So weve got these challenges,and what Richard Thaler and Iwere always fascinated by-take behavioral finance,make itbehavioral fi
48、nance on steroids or behavioral finance 2.0 orbehavioral finance in action-flip the challenges intosolutions.所以我们得出了以下人们可能面临的困难 理查德泰勒和我 总是对这些困难很感兴趣 将行为金融学变得更加深入具体 或者我们可以称其为 行为金融学2.0版 或者现实中的行为金融学 将所面临的困难化为解决方案11:35And we came up with an embarrassingly simple solutioncalled Save More,not today,Tomorro
49、w.我们得出了一个异常简单的解决方案 叫做 为了明天而储蓄 不是今天11:53How is it going to solve the challenges we chatted about?那么这种方案将怎样解决 我们刚刚谈到的这些困难呢？12:00If you think about the problem of bananas versus chocolates,we think were going to eat bananas next week.如果你想到了 香蕉还是巧克力的问题 想我们下周应该是吃香蕉12:04We think were going to save more ne
50、xt year.那么我们就应该想我们明年要存更多的钱12:11www.XiYuS锡育软件Save More Tomorrow invites employees to save more maybenext year-sometime in the future when we can imagineourselves eating bananas,volunteering more in thecommunity,exercising more and doing all the right thingson the planet.明天存更多的钱 邀请员工 也许明年开始存更多的钱 未来的某一