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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件We are here today because the United Nations havedefined goals for the progress of countries.今天我们因联合国 为各国发展 所定下之目标 而齐聚于此。00:15Theyre called Millennium Development Goals.这些目标被称为千年发展目标。00:23And the reason I really like these goals is that there are eightof them.我喜欢此目标之原因 在于联合国把它一分为八。00:26
2、And by specifying eight different goals,the United Nationshas said that there are so many things needed to change in acountry in order to get the good life for people.通过细化这八项目标,联合国认为 我们尚要完成更多事情 来为一国之民 创造更好的生活。00:32Look here-you have to end poverty,education,gender,child and maternal health,control i
3、nfections,protect theenvironment and get the good global links between nationsin every aspect from aid to trade.看看这里,我们须消灭极端贫困、普及小学教育、促进两性平等、降低儿童死亡率、改善产妇保健、与疾病對抗、确保环境的可持续能力 和加强全球合作 以促进各方面 从援助到贸易上的发展。00:42Theres a second reason I like these development goals,andthat is because each and every one is m
4、easured.另外还有一个原因促使我喜欢这些发展目标。那就是这些目标皆可具体量化。00:58以儿童死亡率为例,千年发展目标计划于1990年始至2015年止,儿童死亡率 要降低三分之二,01:04Thats a four percent reduction per year-and this,withmeasuring.每年需减少百分之四的死亡率。这是可衡量的。01:14Thats what makes the difference between political talkinglike this and really going for the important thing,a bet
5、ter lifefor people.这就是政治空谈 与为人民 创造更好生活目标 所具有的差别。01:20Millennium:n.千年期,千禧年;一千年,千年纪念;太平盛世,黄金时代 specifying:n.说明/v.指定;具体说明(specify的ing形式)gender:n.性;性别;性交/vt.生(过去式gendered,过去分词gendered,现在分词gendering,第三人称单数genders,形容词genderless)maternal:adj.母亲的;母性的;母系的;母体遗传的 infections:n.传染病;口腔病害(infection复数形式)And what Im
6、 so happy about with this is that we havealready documented that there are many countries in Asia,in the Middle East,in Latin America and East Europe thatare reducing with this rate.我现在很高兴,因为已有很多 亚洲、中东、拉丁美洲 和东欧国家行动起来了,它们国家的儿童死亡率皆有所下降,这些成果都已被记录在案。01:29And even mighty Brazil is going down with five pe
7、rcent peryear,and Turkey with seven percent per year.就连强大的巴西每年也减少了百分之五的儿童死亡率,土耳其则每年减少百分之七。01:42So theres good news.这些都是好消息。01:47But then I hear people saying,There is no progress in Africa.但我却听到有人说:“非洲情况还未改善。01:49And theres not even statistics on Africa to know what ishappening.我们根本看不到非洲的统计数据。我们不知道非
8、洲发生了什么事。”01:52Ill prove them wrong on both points.我要证明这些都是谬论。01:56Come with me to the wonderful world of statistics.来,让我们一起进入美妙的数据世界。01:59I bring you to the webpage,ChildMortality.org,where youcan take deaths in children below five years of age for allcountries-its done by U.N.specialists.你可以上这个网页:C
9、hildMortality.org,在这上面列有各国 五岁以下儿童的死亡率。这是由联合国专家统计的。02:02And I will take Kenya as an example.以肯尼亚为例,02:12Here you see the data.看看这个数据。02:14Dont panic-dont panic now,Ill help you through this.别紧张,别紧张,我来帮助你们解读这些数据。02:16documented:adj.备有证明文件的 statistics:n.统计;统计学;统计统计资料 specialists:n.专家(specialist的复数);专科医
10、生;特种经纪人It looks nasty,like in college when you didnt like statistics.这看起来很乱,正如你在大学里 不喜欢上统计学课一样。02:19But first thing,when you see dots like this,you have to askyourself:from where do the data come?首先,当你看到这些点时,你得先问问自己:这些数据来源何处？02:23What is the origin of the data?原始数据是怎么来的？02:29Is it so that in Kenya,t
11、here are doctors and other specialistswho write the death certificate at the death of the child andits sent to the statistical office?在肯尼亚有没有 医生或其他专员 会在孩童死去时填写一张死亡证明 且寄送至统计局呢？02:31TED演讲者：Hans Rosling|汉斯.罗斯林演讲标题：Hans Rosling:The good news of the decade?|近十年来的好消息?内容概要：In Hans Rosling.s hands,data sing
12、s.Global trends in health and economics come tovivid life.And the big picture of global developmentwith some surprisingly good newssnaps into sharp focus.汉斯.罗斯林用他生动的视觉图解读了联合国这10年的数据，发现了一个令人惊讶的，大多未被报告的，具有很好价值的头版消息。与此同时，他揭露了联合国数据上的一个缺陷，它使这报告显得不完美。No-low-income countries like Kenya still dont have that
13、level of organization.没有。像肯尼亚这样的低收入国家 尚没有健全的这类机构。02:39It exists,but its not complete because so many deaths occurin the home with the family,and its not registered.就算有,设备也不齐全,因为许多孩童 是死于家中,而且不会被登记在案。02:45What we rely on is not an incomplete system.我们不能依靠这种缺陷重重的系统。02:54We have interviews,we have surve
14、ys.我们进行访谈,深入调查。02:56And this is highly professional female interviewers who sitdown for one hour with a woman and ask her about herbirth history.这是一位极为专业的女性访问员,她和一位女士 坐了一个小时,询问对方的生育史。02:59How many children did you have?你生了几个小孩？03:07statistical:adj.统计的;统计学的 rely on:依靠,依赖 surveys:n.调查(survey的复数)interv
15、iewers:n.会见者;面谈者;进行面试者Are they alive?全都活着吗？03:09If they died,at what age and what year?假若死了,是于何年几岁死的？03:11And then this is done in a representative sample ofthousands of women in the country and put together inwhat used to be called a demographic health survey report.这就会成为该国 成千上万妇女的代表性样本,这些样本会被收集起来
16、来放进人口健康调查报告里。03:14But these surveys are costly,so they can only be done inthree-to five-year intervals.但这种调查花费甚巨,所以只能每隔三到五年做一次。03:24But they have good quality.但调查质量很高。03:29So this is a limitation.只是经费有限制。03:31And all these colored lines here are results;each color is onesurvey.这些有颜色的线就是调查结果。每一种颜色代表一
17、次调查。03:33But thats too complicated for today,so Ill simplify it for you,and I give you one average point for each survey.但这样看起来太复杂了,所以我会为你们简化这些数据,所以我就把这些数据平均一下。03:38This was 1977,1988,1992,97 and 2002.这是1977年、1988年、1992年、1997年 和2002年。03:44And when the experts in the U.N.当联合国专家们03:52have got these su
18、rveys in place in their database,then theyuse advanced mathematical formulas to produce a trendline,and the trend line looks like this.把这些数据存进资料库时,他们就会用先进的数学公式 来画出一条趋势线,如这一条趋势线。03:54put together:.放在一起;组合;装配 demographic:adj.人口统计学的;人口学的 survey:n.调查;测量;审视;纵览/vt.调查;勘测;俯瞰/vi.测量土地 intervals:n.间隔;声音程(inter
19、val的复数)formulas:n.数公式;配方;规则(formula的复数)See here-its the best fit they can get of this point.看这里。这就是体现这数据资料的最佳趋势线。04:03But watch out-they continue the line beyond the last pointout into nothing.注意看。他们还将这条线 往后延伸 延伸至未来。04:06And they estimated that in 2008,Kenya had per childmortality of 128.他们估计于2008年
20、肯尼亚的儿童死亡率是每千个孩童有一百二十八个会死。04:14And I was sad,because we could see this reversal in Kenyawith an increased child mortality in the 90s.我感到悲伤,因为我们能看到 在90年代的肯尼亚儿童死亡率呈上升,应该会有逆转性。04:20It was so tragic.这是如此的糟糕。04:29But in June,I got a mail in my inbox from DemographicHealth Surveys,and it showed good news f
21、rom Kenya.但在六月我在邮箱收到一封 来自于人口健康调查的信,从肯尼亚那儿传来好消息。04:31I was so happy.我很高兴。04:38This was the estimate of the new survey.这是新调查的评估。04:40Then it just took another three months for the U.N.to get itinto their server,and on Friday we got the new trend line-itwas down here.随后联合国却又花了3个月时间 把这数据呈现在他们的数据服务器上,在周五
22、我们有了新的趋势线。这儿呈下降趋势。04:43Isnt it nice-isnt it nice,yeah?它是不是很棒？很棒,对吧？04:52www.XiYuS锡育软件在周五的那个早上,我确实坐在我电脑前,我看到死亡率 从128降到84.04:54So we celebrated.我们为此庆祝了一下。05:02But now,when you have this trend line,how do we measureprogress?但现在,你有这趋势线,我们怎样衡量进步呢？05:04point out:指出,指明 estimated:adj.估计的;预计的;估算的 reversal:n.
23、逆转;摄反转;法撤销 inbox:n.收件箱/收文篮Im going into some details here,because the U.N.do it likethis.这儿我讲些细节,因为联合国是像这样做的。05:08They start in 1990-they measure to 2009.他们是从1990年到2009年进行衡量。05:12They say,0.9 percent,no progress.他们说,“0.9%,没有进步。”05:15Thats unfair.这不合理。05:18As a professor,I think I have the right to p
24、ropose something做为一个教授,我认为我有权提出一些不同的东As a professor,I think I have the right to propose somethingdifferently.西。05:20I would say,at least do this-10 years is enough to followthe trend.我要说,至少做到这个。10年来的趋势是足够长的。05:23Its two surveys,and you can see whats happening now.这有2个调查,你可以看到现在发生的事。05:27They have 2.
25、4 percent.他们有2.4%的进步。05:30Had I been in the Ministry of Health in Kenya,I may havejoined these two points.我要是在肯尼亚的卫生部,我或许会为这两点进步而努力。05:32So what Im telling you is that we know the child mortality.所以我会告诉你 我们了解这儿童死亡率。05:37We have a decent trend.我们有了一个相当不错的趋势。05:41Its coming into some tricky things the
26、n when we aremeasuring MDGs.当我们衡量千年发展目标时,一些棘手的事随之而来。05:43And the reason here for Africa is especially important,because 90s was a bad decade,not only in Kenya,but acrossAfrica.对于非洲这儿的理由是非常重要的,因为90年代是个糟糕的10年,不仅仅是在肯尼亚,而是遍布非洲05:47The HIV epidemic peaked.艾滋病毒肆意泛滥。05:55peaked:adj.尖的;消瘦的;有遮檐的/v.到达高点,消瘦,竖起
27、(peak的过去式和过去分词形式)There was resistance for the old malaria drugs,until we gotthe new drugs.以前的抗疟疾药物有抗体不顶用,除非我们研发新药。05:57We got,later,the mosquito netting.之后,我们有了蚊帐。06:00And there was socio-economic problems,which are nowbeing solved at a much better scale.还有社会经济问题,我们现在才以一个更好地方式解决这些问题。06:02So look at
28、the average here-this is the average for all ofsub-Saharan Africa.所以看看这平均值。撒哈拉以南非洲国家的平均值在这儿。06:07And the U.N.says its a reduction with 1.8 percent.联合国说 这平均值下降了1.8%。06:11Now this sounds a little theoretical,but its not so theoretical.这个现在听起来有点理论化,但这不是特理论的。06:16You know,these economists,they love mone
29、y,they wantmore and more of it,they want it to grow.大家知道,这些经济学家 他们喜欢金钱,他们想要很多的钱,他们想让钱生钱。06:20So they calculate the percent annual growth rate of theeconomy.所以他们计算经济年均增长百分比。06:25We in public health,we hate child death,so we want less andless and less of child deaths.而我们关注公共卫生,我们不希望儿童死亡,所以我们期望越来越少的儿童死
30、亡。06:28So we calculate the percent reduction per year,but its sort ofthe same percentage.所以我们每年计算降低率。但这是相同的百分比排序。06:33If your economy grows with four percent,you ought toreduce child mortality four percent;if its used well andpeople are really involved and can get the use of theresources in the way
31、they want it.如果经济增长率为4%,儿童死亡率就降低4%,如果适当应用,人们很好地参与其中 人们可以以他们想要的方式来使用资源。06:37malaria:n.内科疟疾;瘴气 mosquito:n.蚊子 netting:n.网;网鱼;结网/v.把织成网;用网捕捉(net的现在分词)socio-economic:adj.社会经济的 in the way:妨碍;挡道So is this fair now to measure this over 19 years?那么现在用19年来衡量这千年发展目标是合理的吗？06:47An economist would never do that.一
32、个经济学家决不会这样做。06:50I have just divided it into two periods.我会把它分为2个阶段。06:53In the 90s,only 1.2 percent,only 1.2 percent.在90年代,只有1.2%,只有1.2%降低率。06:55Whereas now,second gear-its like Africa had first gear,now they go into second gear.而现在,第二阶段 好比非洲有第一阶段,现在非洲进入第二阶段。07:00But even this is not a fair represe
33、ntation of Africa,because itsan average,its an average speed of reduction in Africa.但甚至这个 都不能完全代表非洲,因为这只是平均值,在非州降低率的平均值。07:06And look here when I take you into my bubble graphs.看看这儿我的泡状图形。07:14Still here,child death per 1,000 on that axis.还是这儿,纵轴每1000个孩子里的儿童死亡人数。07:17Here we have the year.这儿看到的是年数。0
34、7:22And Im now giving you a wider picture than the MDG.我现在呈现给你比千年发展目标视角更宏观的数据图。07:24I start 50 years ago when Africa celebrated independence inmost countries.我从50年前举例 非洲大多数国家庆祝独立。07:27I give you Congo,which was high,Ghana-lower.And Kenya-even lower.我给大家举例,刚果的儿童死亡数很高,加纳的较低,肯尼亚的更低点。07:32second gear:第二
35、档 first gear:一档;第一档 bubble:n.气泡,泡沫,泡状物;透明圆形罩,圆形顶/vi.沸腾,冒泡;发出气泡声/vt.使冒泡;滔滔不绝地说 graphs:n.数图形,图表;曲线图(graph的复数)/v.把绘入图;用图表表示;描绘(graph的第三人称单数)axis:n.轴；轴线；轴心国And what has happened over the years since then?Here we自那以后发生了什么事呢？我们在这儿07:36And what has happened over the years since then?Here wego.You can see,w
36、ith independence,literacy improved andvaccinations started,smallpox was eradicated,hygiene wasimproved,and things got better.大家能看到,随着国家独立,人们读写能力的提高,人们接种疫苗接种,天花被消灭,卫生保健得到改善,一切都好起来。07:39But then,in the 80s,watch out here.但随后,在80年代,看看这里。07:48Congo got into civil war,and they leveled off here.刚果经历内战,它们在
37、这里持稳。07:50Ghana got very ahead,fast.加纳以非常快的速度领先着。07:54This was the backlash in Kenya,and Ghana bypassed,butthen Kenya and Ghana go down together-still a standstillin Congo.肯尼亚数据也激烈变化着,加纳超过了肯尼亚,随后肯尼亚和加纳的儿童死亡人数都在下降。刚果的还没变化。07:56Thats where we are today.这就是现在我们所处的境地。08:03You can see it doesnt make sens
38、e to make an average of thiszero improvement and this very fast improvement.各位ikeyi看到,这个 零改善和这个非常快速的改善的 平均值不具有任何意义。08:05Time has come to stop thinking about sub-Saharan Africa asone place.时间加以证明 不要把撒哈拉以南非洲国家当作一个区域来混淆。08:15vaccinations:n.接种疫苗;种痘 smallpox:n.内科天花 eradicated:adj.画着根的/v.摆脱;擦掉;连根拔起(eradic
39、ate的过去分词)hygiene:n.卫生;卫生学;保健法 civil war:内战 leveled:n.水平;标准;水平面/adj.水平的;平坦的;同高的/vi.瞄准;拉平;变得平坦/vt.使同等;对准;弄平 backlash:n.反冲;强烈抵制/vt.强烈反对;发生后冲 bypassed:v.绕道,忽视(bypass的过去分词)standstill:n.停顿;停止 make sense:有意义;讲得通;言之有理Their countries are so different,and they merit to berecognized in the same way,as we dont
40、talk about Europe asone place.这些国家是如此不同,他们理应被正确地认识,正如我们不会说欧洲是一个地方。08:21I can tell you that the economy in Greece and Sweden arevery different-everyone knows that.我可以告诉你在希腊和瑞典的经济是截然不同的。大家都晓得。08:29And they are judged,each country,on how they are doing.这得按各国情况来做评估。08:34So let me show the wider picture.
41、然后我给大家看看这更宏观的数据图。08:37My country,Sweden:1800,we were up there.拿我的国家瑞典来说:1800年我们的儿童死亡数在这儿。08:40What a strange personality disorder we must have,countingthe children so meticulously in spite of a high child deathrate.尽管有高儿童死亡率,我们那时得需要多么奇怪的心理 来仔细地统计儿童死亡数。08:46Its very strange.Its sort of embarrassing.这
42、非常奇怪,也令人尴尬。08:52But we had that habit in Sweden,you know,that we countedall the child deaths,even if we didnt do anything about it.但大家知道,我们在瑞典有个风俗 我们记录所有儿童死亡数 即使我们为此做不了什么。08:55And then,you see,these were famine years.然后大家看到,这是饥荒年,09:01These were bad years,and people got fed up with Sweden.糟糕的年代,人们在瑞
43、典混不下去了。09:03My ancestors moved to the United States.我的祖先移民到美国。09:05meticulously:adv.细致地;一丝不苟地;拘泥地 in spite of:尽管;不管,不顾 embarrassing:adj.使人尴尬的;令人为难的 fedup with:受够了;极厌恶;对厌倦And eventually,soon they started to get better and betterhere.不久之后,他们生活变好起来。09:08And here we got better education,and we got healt
44、h service,and child mortality came down.这儿我们得到良好的教育,公共医疗保健服务,儿童死亡数才降下来。09:11We never had a war;Sweden was in peace all this time.我们没有战争,瑞典一直以来处于和平年代。09:16But look,the rate of lowering in Sweden was not fast.但看一下,在瑞典的降低率 变化不是非常快。09:19Sweden achieved a low child mortality because we startedearly.瑞典达到低
45、儿童死亡数 由于我们早期开始的工作。09:25We had primary school actually started in 1842.我们实际 在1842年开始有小学教育。09:31And then you get that wonderful effect when we got femaleliteracy one generation later.随后在一代人之后 当女性有识字能力 这才有了显著作用。09:35You have to realize that the investments we do in progressare long-term investments.大家得
46、意识到我们所取得的进步投资 是个长远投资。09:41Its not about just five years-its long-term investments.这不仅仅是5年的,而是个长远投资。09:46And Sweden never reached the Millennium DevelopmentGoal rate,3.1 percent when I calculated.我计算时发现瑞典还没达到千年发展目标的 儿童死亡率3.1%。09:50So we are off track-thats what Sweden is.我们还没达到这目标。这就是瑞典的现状。09:55lower
47、ing:adj.使低劣的;昏暗的;减少体力的 primary school:小学 investments:n.经投资,投资的财产;投资学(investment的复数形式)long-term:adj.长期的/从长远来看But you dont talk about it so much.但我们不经常谈这个。09:58We want others to be better than we were,and indeed,我们想让其他国家比我们瑞典做得更好。的确,其他国家已经做得很好了。10:00We want others to be better than we were,and indeed,
48、others have been better.他国家已经做得很好了。10:00Let me show you Thailand,see what a success story,Thailandfrom the 1960s-how they went down here and reachedalmost the same child mortality levels as Sweden.让我给大家展示下泰国的数据,看看泰国自从1960年取得了多么成功的进步,他们是怎样降低这数据几乎到达和瑞典一样的儿童死亡率水平上。10:03And Ill give you another story-Eg
49、ypt,the most hidden,glorious success in public health.我会给大家另一个例子,埃及,在公共卫生上常常被人忽视,但取得辉煌的成就。10:12Egypt was up here in 1960,higher than Congo.在1960年埃及在这儿的数据 比刚果的还要高。10:18The Nile Delta was a misery for children with diarrhealdisease and malaria and a lot of problems.尼罗河三角洲的儿童过着苦难的生活,他们得腹泻性痢疾 疟疾和面对很多问题。
50、10:22And then they got the Aswan Dam.They got electricity intheir homes,they increased education and they got primaryhealth care.然后埃及建有阿斯旺大坝。家中通电了。他们普及教育。也普及基本的医疗保健。10:29And down they went,you know.大家都晓得,他们的儿童死亡率在下降。10:36And they got safer water,they eradicated malaria.他们有安全饮用水,消灭了疟疾。10:38And isnt i