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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件So if youve been following the news,youve heard thattheres a pack of giant asteroids headed for the UnitedStates,all scheduled to strike within the next 50 years.如果,你一直有看最近的新闻,你肯定听说过有一群巨大的小行星 朝着美国冲过去,所有的这些小行星都会在接下来50年里,一个接一个地袭击我们。00:13Now I dont mean actual asteroids made of rock and me
2、tal.当然,我并不是指那些由石头和金属组成的真正的小行星。00:21That actually wouldnt be such a problem,because if we werereally all going to die,we would put aside our differences,wed spend whatever it took,and wed find a way to deflectthem.因为,如果是的话,那对我们来讲不是一个大问题,因为,如果我们全部都面临死亡的威胁,我们就不会在乎我们人与人之间的差异,我们就会尽我们所能,找到一种方法使那些小行星偏离方向,以
3、至于不会冲向我们。00:25Im talking instead about threats that are headed our way,but theyre wrapped in a special energy field that polarizesus,and therefore paralyzes us.但我所讲的这个冲向我们的威胁,是隐藏在一种很特别的能量场里面,这个威胁导致我们两极分化,也因此使我们麻痹瘫痪。00:33Last March,I went to the TED conference,and I saw JimHansen speak,the NASA scien
4、tist who first raised the alarmabout global warming in the 1980s,and it seems that thepredictions he made back then are coming true.去年三月份,我去参加一个TED会议,我看到NASA宇航局科学家 Jim Hansen 在演说,在80年代,他是第一个拉响全球变暖警钟的人,现在看来,他在当时所做的预测 如今,已经慢慢变成现实。00:43asteroids:n.天小行星(asteroid的复数)put aside:v.撇开;把.放在一边,暂不考虑;储存备用 deflec
5、t:vt.使转向;使偏斜;使弯曲/vi.转向;偏斜 wrapped:adj.有包装的/v.包裹;覆盖(wrap的过去分词)polarizes:vt.(使)极化;(使)偏振;(使)两极分化/vi.极化;偏振;两极分化 paralyzes:vt.使麻痹;使瘫痪 conference:n.会议;讨论;协商;联盟;(正式)讨论会;工会,工党用语(每年的)大会/vi.举行或参加(系列)会议 predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式)This is where were headed in terms of global temperaturerises,and if we k
6、eep on going the way were going,we get afour-or five-degree-Centigrade temperature rise by the endof this century.也就是说,这个冲向我们的威胁,就是全球气温升高的问题,如果我们什么都不管,还是按照我们现在的方式生活,在这个世纪末,全球气温就会升高 4到5摄氏度。00:54Hansen says we can expect about a five-meter rise in sealevels.Hansen 说海平面预计会升高5米。01:04This is what a five-
7、meter rise in sea levels would look like.这个就是海平面升高5米后的景象。01:08Low-lying cities all around the world will disappear withinthe lifetime of children born today.世界上,那些处在低洼地区的城市全部都会消失,而这就会发生在今天出生的孩子们还活着的时候。01:11Hansen closed his talk by saying,Imagine a giant asteroidon a collision course with Earth.在演讲结
8、束的时候,Hansen 说到,“请大家想象一下,一个巨大的小行星正在冲向地球,01:18That is the equivalent of what we face now.我们现在所面临的的全球气候的问题等同于这个小行星冲击地球所带来的威胁。01:25Yet we dither,taking no action to deflect the asteroid,eventhough the longer we wait,the more difficult and expensiveit becomes.但是,我们对此犹豫不决,没有采取任何行动来使这颗小行星偏离轨道。尽管,我们等得越久,解决这
9、个问题就会变得越来越困难和昂贵。“01:27Of course,the left wants to take action,but the right deniesthat theres any problem.当然,左派人士想采取一些行动,但是右派人士否认这个问题的存在。01:36in terms of:依据;按照;在方面;以措词 Low-lying:adj.低洼的 asteroid:n.天小行星;无脊椎海盘车;小游星/adj.星状的 equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的/n.等价物,相等物 dither:n.发抖;递色;电子高频脉动/vi.踌躇;发抖;犹豫 denies:
10、否认/拒绝All right,so I go back from TED,and then the following week,Im invited to a dinner party in Washington,D.C.,where Iknow that Ill be meeting a number of conservativeintellectuals,including Yuval Levin,那好,所以我就回到TED,然后,在接下来的星期,我会被邀请去华盛顿特区参加一个晚餐派对,在那里,我知道我会见到 一些保守派知识分子,包括 YuvalLevin,01:41and to pre
11、pare for the meeting,I read this article by Levin inNational Affairs called Beyond the Welfare State.为了准备好这次会见,我读了一篇 Levin 在National Affair 发表的一篇文章,题目为”超越国家的福利与安康“。01:50TED演讲者：Jonathan Haidt|乔纳森.海特演讲标题：Jonathan Haidt:How common threats can make common(political)ground|为什么共同利益来自于共同威胁内容概要：Jonathan Hai
12、dt studies how-and why-we evolved to be moral.By understandingmore about our moral roots,his hope is that we can learn to be civil and open-minded.如果有很多小行星向地球飞来，我们肯定会像电影里演的一样，联合在一起，阻止它们的到来，是吧?但是，通常在面对重大的，有数据根据的，并且是“世界末日”级的问题时，人们通常会退回到各自的党派阵营，并且陷入僵局。Jonathan Haidt 向我们展示了那些正在冲向地球的小行星-有些是左派关注的，有些是右派关心的
13、-他向我们建议如何让两党协同合作，并且更有成效地为全人类服务。Levin writes that all over the world,nations are coming toterms with the fact that the social democratic welfare state isturning out to be untenable and unaffordable,dependentupon dubious economics and the demographic model of abygone era.Levin 写到,在全世界范围内,所有的国家现在正面临一个不
14、可否认的事实,那些全民社会民主福利 正在变得难以负担 和依赖于不确定的经济因素 以及过时的人口模型01:57All right,now this might not sound as scary as an asteroid,but look at these graphs that Levin showed.当然,这听上去大概没有小行星冲击地球那么可怕,但是看看这些Levin展示的数据图。02:15This graph shows the national debt as a percentage ofAmericas GDP,and as you see,if you go all the
15、 way back tothe founding,we borrowed a lot of money to fight theRevolutionary War.这些图像显示出整个国家的借债 在全美国的GDP里所占的比重,正如你所看到的,如果回到（美国）建国之初,我们为了独立战争借了很多钱,02:20conservative:adj.保守的/n.保守派,守旧者 intellectuals:n.劳经知识分子(intellectual的复数)Levin:n.闪电 untenable:adj.(论据等)站不住脚的;不能维持的;不能租赁的;难以防守的 unaffordable:adj.买不起的 de
16、pendent upon:取决于dubious:adj.可疑的；暧昧的；无把握的；半信半疑的 demographic:adj.人口统计学的;人口学的 bygone:adj.过去的/n.过去的事 graphs:n.数图形,图表;曲线图(graph的复数)/v.把绘入图;用图表表示;描绘(graph的第三人称单数)Wars are expensive.But then wed pay it off,pay it off,pay itoff,and then,oh,whats this?The Civil War.Even moreexpensive.打仗是很昂贵的。但是我们不断地还钱,还钱,还钱,
17、然后呢？噢！这是什么？美国南北战争（内战）。这个更贵。02:30Borrow a lot of money,pay it off,pay it off,pay it off,getdown to near zero,and bang!-World War I.又借了很多钱,然后又还啊,还啊,还啊,刚刚还到差不多没有债的时候,砰！-第一次世界大战爆发。02:36Once again,the same process repeats.再一次的,同样的过程又重复进行。02:42Now then we get the Great Depression and World War II.接下来,又是大萧
18、条和第二次世界大战。02:43We rise to an astronomical level,around 118 percent of GDP,really unsustainable,really dangerous.我们的债已经上升到了一个天文学的数字,大概所占GDP的118%,这真是让我们不堪重负的,也是非常危险的。02:45But we pay it off,pay it off,pay it off,and then,whats this?但是,我们又继续还债,还啊,还啊,还啊,然后呢？这是什么？02:53Why has it been rising since the 70s?
19、为什么这个借债从70年代起就一直在上升呢？02:58Its partly due to tax cuts that were unfunded,but its dueprimarily to the rise of entitlement spending,especiallyMedicare.一部分原因是以为那些被减掉的税收没有被基金化,但最主要的原因是社会福利支出的增长,特别是医疗保险。03:01Civil War:内战 get down to:开始认真考虑;着手处理 repeats:重复 Depression:n.沮丧;洼地;不景气;忧愁astronomical:adj.天文的,天文学的
20、;极大的 unsustainable:adj.无法支撑的;不可证实的;不能成立的 unfunded:adj.未备基金的 entitlement:n.权利;津贴 Medicare:n.(美,加)医疗保险(等于medicare)Were approaching the levels of indebtedness we had atWorld War II,and the baby boomers havent even retiredyet,and when they do,this is what will happen.我们现在达到的借债水平已经跟在二战时候的水平差不多了,而且,那些在婴儿潮
21、出生的人还没有退休,等他们都退休的时候,这就是将会发生的。03:09This is data from the Congressional Budget Office showingits most realistic forecast of what would happen if currentsituations and expectations and trends are extended.这一组来自国会预算办公室的数据 对将要发生的事情,做出了最接近现实的预测,这个预测是根据现在的情形、预期,以及趋势的延伸所做出来的。03:18All right,now what you migh
22、t notice is that these two graphsare actually identical,not in terms of the x-and y-axes,or interms of the data they present,but in terms of their moraland political implications,they say the same thing.那好,现在你们也许会注意到,这两幅图 实际上是一模一样的,不是他们的x,y轴一样,也不是他们所显示的数据一样,而是他们所暗含的道德寓意、政治寓意是一样的。03:27Let me translat
23、e for you.让我来为你们解释一下。03:40We are doomed unless we start acting now.”如果我们再不采取行动,我们的末日就到了。03:42Whats wrong with you people on the other side in the otherparty?你们这些另一党派的人是怎么一回事啊？03:45Cant you see reality?If you wont help,then get the hell outof the way.难道你们看不清现实吗？如果你们不帮忙的话,那就走开,别碍事。“03:48indebtedness:n
24、.债务;受恩惠 baby boomers:婴儿潮出生的一代人(babyboomer的名词复数)Congressional:adj.国会的;会议的;议会的 trends:n.动态,统计趋势 identical:adj.同一的；完全相同的/n.完全相同的事物 implications:n.蕴涵式;暗指,暗示;含蓄,含意;卷入(implication的复数)out of the way:偏僻的;不同寻常的;不挡道;把移开We can deflect both of these asteroids.我们完全可以使这些”小行星“偏离撞击地球的方向。03:53These problems are both
25、 technically solvable.这些问题在技术上是可以解决的。03:55Our problem and our tragedy is that in these hyper-partisantimes,the mere fact that one side says,Look,theres anasteroid,我们的问题和悲剧来自与这个”超级党派割据”的时代,这个党派的人说:“看,那里有一颗小行星向我们飞来。”03:58means that the other sides going to say,Huh?What?这就意味着另一个党派的人会说:“什么？04:04No,Im no
26、t even going to look up.No.不,我根本不抬头朝天上看。绝不。“04:06To understand why this is happening to us,and what we cando about it,we need to learn more about moral psychology.想要明白为什么这种情况会发生在我们身上,并且我们要怎样解决这个问题,需要我们学一些道德心理学。04:09So Im a social psychologist,and I study morality,and one ofthe most important princip
27、les of morality is that moralitybinds and blinds.我是一名社会心理学家,并且我专门研究社会道德,在道德心理学里,最重要的一个原则是说,道德约束人并使人变得盲目。04:16It binds us into teams that circle around sacred values butthereby makes us go blind to objective reality.它使我们为了一些神圣的价值观团结在一起,但是它也让我们失去了对客观现实的判断力。04:24Think of it like this.可以这样想。04:31Large-s
28、cale cooperation is extremely rare on this planet.大规模的团体合作在这个星球上是很罕见的。04:32solvable:adj.可以解决的;可以解的;可溶的 psychology:n.心理学;心理状态 psychologist:n.心理学家,心理学者 blinds:n.建百叶窗;盲人(常用复数)/v.使失明(blind的第三人称单数)sacred:adj.神的；神圣的；宗教的；庄严的 blind to:无视于;对熟视无睹 Large-scale:adj.大规模的,大范围的;大比例尺的There are only a few species tha
29、t can do it.只有很少的一些物种可以做到。04:36Thats a beehive.Thats a termite mound,a giant termitemound.那是一个蜂窝。那是一个白蚁丘,一个相当大的白蚁丘。04:38And when you find this in other animals,its always the samestory.当你看到其他动物像这样”协同合作“的时候,其实本质都是一样的。04:41Theyre always all siblings who are children of a single queen,so theyre all in
30、the same boat.他们都是同一个女王所生的兄弟姐妹,他们都在”一条船上“。04:44They rise or fall,they live or die,as one.他们同昌同衰,共生共死,就像一个个体一样。04:51Theres only one species on the planet that can do thiswithout kinship,and that,of course,is us.但在这个星球上,只有一种物种,就算没有血缘联系,也能这样协同合作。当然就是我们人类。04:54www.XiYuS锡育软件This is a reconstruction of an
31、cient Babylon,and this isTenochtitlan.这个是古代巴比伦的重建模型,这个是特诺奇蒂特兰。04:59Now how did we do this?How did we go from being hunter-gatherers 10,000 years ago to building these gigantic citiesin just a few thousand years?我们是怎样达到这样的成就呢？我们是怎样从10,000年前的狩猎者和采集者,就在仅仅几千年后变成修建这些庞大建筑的人了呢？05:04beehive:n.蜂窝;蜂箱 termite:
32、n.昆白蚁 mound:n.堆;高地;坟堆;护堤/vt.堆起;筑堤/vi.积成堆 siblings:n.兄弟姐妹;同科in the same boat:处境相同;面临同样的危险 kinship:n.法亲属关系,家属关系;亲密关系 reconstruction:n.再建,重建;改造;复兴 hunter-gatherers:n.采集狩猎的人 gigantic:adj.巨大的，庞大的Its miraculous,and part of the explanation is this ability tocircle around sacred values.这绝对是奇迹,其中一部分原因是 我们能够为
33、了共同的神圣的价值观团结在一起。05:13As you see,temples and gods play a big role in all ancientcivilizations.正如你所知道的,寺庙和上帝在所有古代文明里扮演了重要的角色。05:20This is an image of Muslims circling the Kaaba in Mecca.这是穆斯林信仰者环绕在麦加圣地的克尔白圣石。05:24Its a sacred rock,and when people circle somethingtogether,they unite,they can trust each
34、 other,they becomeone.它是一块神圣的石头,当人们一起环绕在某一个东西的周围的时候,人们就团结在一起,他们可以彼此信任,他们就仿佛成为了一个个体。05:28Its as though youre moving an electrical wire through amagnetic field that generates current.就像是你拿一根电线,然后 让它绕着磁场移动,这样就会有电流产生。05:35When people circle together,they generate a current.当人们围绕在一起的时候,他们就会产生电流。05:40We l
35、ove to circle around things.我们人类真的很喜欢围绕着某些东西。05:43We circle around flags,and then we can trust each other.我们围绕在旗帜的周围,然后我们就变得来相信彼此。05:44We can fight as a team,as a unit.我们可以组成一个团体,一个部队去战斗。05:48But even as morality binds people together into a unit,into ateam,the circling blinds them.但是,尽管道德使人们团结在一起,形
36、成一个团体,但是这也使得人们变得盲目。05:51It causes them to distort reality.这导致了人们无视现实。05:58miraculous:adj.不可思议的,奇迹的 civilizations:n.文明(civilization的复数形式)circling:n.环骑/vt.盘旋,绕轨道运行(circle现在分词形式)generates:计生成/发生 distort:vt.扭曲;使失真;曲解/vi.扭曲;变形We begin separating everything into good versus evil.我们开始把所有的一切分割成好的和坏的。06:00No
37、w that process feels great.It feels really satisfying.这个分割的过程是很爽的。因为这给了我们强大的满足感。06:04But it is a gross distortion of reality.但这是对现实极大的歪曲。06:08You can see the moral electromagnet operating in the U.S.Congress.你可以看见这个道德电磁体正运行在美国国会里面。06:12This is a graph that shows the degree to which voting inCongress
38、 falls strictly along the left-right axis,so that if youknow how liberal or conservative someone is,you knowexactly how they voted on all the major issues.这幅曲线图显示出国会里的 投票在很大的程度上完全的沿着左和右两个轴,也就是说,如果你事先知道一个人是自由派还是保守派的话,你就可以准确的预测出这个人在很多重大问题上是怎样投票的。06:15And what you can see is that,in the decades after t
39、he CivilWar,Congress was extraordinarily polarized,as you wouldexpect,about as high as can be.你还可以看到的是,在内战结束后的近十年里,国会完全被两极分化,就像你所预料的,这种被分化的程度是非常非常巨大的。06:26But then,after World War I,things dropped,and we get thishistorically low level of polarization.但是,在第一次世界大战以后,这种分化程度降低了,这种两极分化的局面降到了历史最低点。06:36ve
40、rsus:prep.对；与.相对；对抗 satisfying:adj.令人满意的;令人满足的 distortion:n.变形;物失真;扭曲;曲解electromagnet:n.电磁体,电电磁铁;电磁石 axis:n.轴；轴线；轴心国 extraordinarily:adv.非常;格外地;非凡地polarized:adj.偏振的;极化的 historically:adv.历史上地;从历史观点上说 polarization:n.极化;偏振;两极分化This was a golden age of bipartisanship,at least in terms ofthe parties abil
41、ity to work together and solve grand nationalproblems.这是两党制的黄金时期,至少在两党合作的方面,在大家团结一致,解决国家层面的问题。06:42But in the 1980s and 90s,the electromagnet turns back on.但是在80、90年代,这种两极分化的电磁体又开始活跃了。06:50Polarization rises.两极分化又开始了。06:54It used to be that conservatives and moderates and liberalscould all work toge
42、ther in Congress.在过去,保守派、温和派和自由派 都可以在国会里分工合作。06:57They could rearrange themselves,form bipartisancommittees,but as the moral electromagnet got crankedup,the force field increased,他们可以不断调和,形成两党联盟委员会,但随着道德电磁体的转动,电磁场就增强了,07:02Democrats and Republicans were pulled apart.民主党和共和党被生生地扯开了。07:10It became muc
43、h harder for them to socialize,much harderfor them to cooperate.两党之间的交流,以及互相合作变得越来越困难。07:13Retiring members nowadays say that its become like gangwarfare.退休的党内人士描述这个现象就像是帮派斗争。07:16bipartisanship:n.两党合作;两党制 conservatives:n.保守党,保守派 moderates:n.温和派(moderate的复数);稳健派/v.主持;减轻;变温和(moderate的三单形式)liberals:n.
44、自由主义者(liberal的复数)rearrange:vt.重新排列;重新整理 bipartisan:adj.两党连立的;代表两党的 committees:n.委员会;街道办事处 cranked:adj.有曲柄的,弯曲的/v.转动曲柄;使成曲柄状;曲折行进(crank的过去分词)Democrats:n.民主党员(democrat的复数);民主主义者 socialize:vt.使社会化;使社会主义化;使适应社会生活/vi.交际;参与社交 Retiring:adj.退休的;不善社交的;过隐居生活的/v.退休(retire的ing形式)warfare:n.战争；冲突Did anybody notic
45、e that in two of the three debates,Obamawore a blue tie and Romney wore a red tie?有没有人注意到,在三场总统辩论会的其中两个里面,奥巴马戴了一条蓝领带,罗姆尼戴了一条红的。07:21Do you know why they do this?你们知道他们为什么要这样做？07:28Its so that the Bloods and the Crips will know which side tovote for.(Laughter)The polarization is strongest among ourpo
46、litical elites.因为这样的话“血滴帮”和“跛子帮”（非裔美国人组成的帮派）就知道投谁的票了。（大家笑）这种两极分化的现象在政治精英中最为强烈。07:30Nobody doubts that this is happening in Washington.没人会怀疑是否华府（华盛顿）正在上演这种现象。07:37But for a while,there was some doubt as to whether it washappening among the people.但过一阵子,人们会怀疑说,在老百姓里面会不会也会有这种分化的现象呢？07:39Well,in the las
47、t 12 years its become much more apparentthat it is.确实,在过去12年里,这种趋势 变得越来越明显。07:43So look at this data.This is from the American NationalElections Survey.看看这些数据。它们来自于关于美国大选的问卷调查。07:46And what they do on that survey is they ask whats called afeeling thermometer rating.这个调查被称作“感觉冷暖”评级。07:49So,how warm o
48、r cold do you feel about,you know,NativeAmericans,or the military,the Republican Party,theDemocratic Party,all sorts of groups in American life.也就是说,你对 美国原住民、美国军队、共和党、民主党、等等各种不同群体,有多热或者是多冷的感觉。07:54debates:n.法辩论;讨论(debate的复数)/v.法辩论;讨论(debate的三单形式)Bloods:n.血帮(blood复数)Crips:n.瘸子帮;跛子帮(crip的复数)elites:n.精
49、英(elite的复数)Survey:n.调查;测量;审视;纵览/vt.调查;勘测;俯瞰/vi.测量土地 rating:n.等级;等级评定;额定功率/v.对评价(rate的ing形式)The blue line shows how warmly Democrats feel aboutDemocrats,and they like them.这条蓝色的线显示了民主党人士对民主党的冷暖程度、即喜欢程度的感觉。08:04You know,ratings in the 70s on a 100-point scale.这些是70年代的数据,用0-100点的评分标准。08:09Republicans l
50、ike Republicans.Thats not a surprise.共和党喜欢共和党,这并不令人惊奇。08:12But when you look at cross-party ratings,you find,well,thatits lower,but actually,when I first saw this data,I wassurprised.但是当你看看不同党派之间的评分,你会发现,评分降低了,但是实际上,当我第一次看到这个数据的时候,我很惊讶。08:15Thats actually not so bad.If you go back to the Carter ande