《中国汽车行业供应链报告.pptx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《中国汽车行业供应链报告.pptx（77页珍藏版）》请在taowenge.com淘文阁网|工程机械CAD图纸|机械工程制图|CAD装配图下载|SolidWorks_CaTia_CAD_UG_PROE_设计图分享下载上搜索。
1、中国汽车行业供应链报告ContentsExecutiveSummaryAutomotiveIndustryBusinessChallenges Global Regional:US,Europe,Asia-Pacific,RestofWorldAutomotiveITSpendingTrends Global&RegionalITSpendForecasts AutomotiveIndustryITTrendsAutomotiveITServicesIndustry:CompetitiveProfilesAutomotiveITServicesMarket:BearingPointAllian
2、cesSourcesandContactExecutive SummaryAutomakersarecurrentlyfacedwithslowersales,overcapacityanddeclinesinprofitability.Big3arelosingmarketsharetoJapaneseautomakers.Toyota,HondaandNissanincreasedtheirU.S.salesandmarketshareinthefirsthalfof2003,whiletheBigThreemanufacturers(GM,Ford,DaimlerChrysler)saw
3、theirsalesdeclinedespitespendingheavilyonincentives.Currentlytheglobalautomotiveindustryhastoomuchcapacity(roughly30%)andassalesfall,theproblemcontinues.Carpriceshavebeenfallingmakingalreadythinmarginsevenmorepressured.Theglobalautomotiveindustryisfacedwithmorecompetition,greaterpricetransparency,ri
4、singcustomerexpectationsandqualityimprovements,makingthepressureevengreateronpriceandprofitability.Chinapresentsthebestopportunityforautomakersduetoincreasedgovernmentincentivesandcooperation,cheaperlabor,andproximitytoalargepopulationofpotentialconsumers.Chinacontinuestomakeprogresstowardsamarketec
5、onomywhichhasledtoglobalbusinesses,likeautomotivecompanies,tryingtorampupinordertotapintothecountryslargemarketplaceof1.3Bconsumers.AyearafterentryintotheWTO,in2003,Chinasautomotiveindustryproduced3.25Mmotorvehicleunits(38%growthcomparedtotheyearbefore).ITIssues:Industryinsurvivalmode,pressuringspen
6、ding;OpportunitiesforCRMn Mostmanufacturingverticals,includingAutomotive,havebeenoperatingin“survivalmode”,spendingverylittleoncapitalandoperationalexpenses;ITspendinghassufferedasaresult.TheNorthAmericanmanufacturingmarketconstitutesapproximately45%ofthetotalworldmanufacturingITspend.Executive Summ
7、aryn CurrentlyintheautomotiveindustrythereislesssignificanceplacedontheroleofITinsupportingbusinessstrategies,especiallyincomparisontoindustrieslikeFinancialServicesorHealthcarepayerindustries.ThisisalargedeterminantofITbudget.n Inordertounderstandtheirnear-termsalesvolume,optionmixandpricesensitivi
8、ty,automakershavetostartunderstandingtheircustomersbetterthroughthemanysignalstheyseefromtheirconsumersinteractions.MuchofthiscanbeaccomplishedthroughCRMinitiatives.n Whiledealerincentiveshavebeenusedbymostofthemajorautomakers,especiallyintheUS,companiesleveragingtheirexistingCRMmightbeabletogetmore
9、forless.Thedatagatheredfromincentiveprogramsflowingbacktomanufacturersanddealerscanallowfollow-upcampaignsthatbridgethegapbetweensalesandmarketing.n ERPvendorsareturningtheirfocustodeliveringextendedapplicationsinareasofSCM,CRMandPLMtocompensateforthelossofrevenuefromlarge-scaleprojects.Competitorsa
10、ndAlliancesn DeloitteConsultinghasajointinitiativewithSAPtosupporttheautomotiveindustryinthedeploymentofthemySAPAutomotivesolutiononaworldwidebasis.Aspartofthisinitiative,DCandSAParedevelopingmethodsforcustomer-specificanalysisonfeasibility,cost-benefit,andROI.n IBMencouragestheirengineerstorotatein
11、andoutofthefield,spendingtimesolvingreal-lifeproblemswhilenotabandoningtheirinsideresearch.IBMhascreatedaninnovationservicesgroupwithinitsresearchunitdedicatedtoworkingonautomotivecustomerproblems,makingthemcapableoftakingtheirresearchandapplyittobusinessissues.n IntheEuropeanautomotiveindustry,SAPi
12、scurrentlyfocusingoncrossfunctionalprocesses,packagingtheirSCM,PLMandCRMallinone,usingdifferentmodules,approachingitfromtheperspectiveofthebusinessprocessesthatcrosstheseareas.Global Automotive Industry:Business ChallengesGlobal Automotive Industry is on a Gradual SlideTheworldsautomotiveindustryhas
13、beenonagradualdownwardslideoverthepastyear,acceleratedtosomedegreebythelikelihoodofamajorbankruptcyandfurtherrestructuringoftheindustry.n Inhibitorsincludeweak(regional)consumerconfidence,highunemploymentanduncertainglobalequitymarkets,allofwhichhaveledtolowersales.n InEurope,thefirstfivemonthsof200
14、3sawsalesdropby4%whilenewregistrationsforMayfellthelowestinfiveyears.TheUSmarketisforecasttoshrink4%thisyear.n Currentlytheglobalautomotiveindustryhastoomuchcapacity(roughly30%)andassalesfall,theproblemcontinues.Muchoftheover-capacityisduetoeachindividualcompanyexpectingtogrowfasterthanitsrivals.And
15、whilethe90sshowedstrongreturns,manyautomakersinvestedinadditionalcapacity,createdriskymodels,builtmorefactoriesandenteredintoemergingmarketsthathadmorelongtermpromisethanshortterm.n Formanyyearsthelargesttruckandcarmakershavecontinuallysustainedlossesoutoftheirprimarybusinessesofcarsales,oftenmaking
16、profitsthroughmoneymadefromsellingsparepartsatinflatedprices,throughfinancingbusinessesorthroughexchangerates.Thisstructureisincreasinglyexposedinadownturn,especiallywhenincentiveslike0%financinghavehamperedthefinancingbusiness.n Carpriceshavebeenfallingmakingalreadythinmarginsevenmorepressured.Theg
17、lobalautomotiveindustryisfacedwithmorecompetition,greaterpricetransparency,risingcustomerexpectationsandqualityimprovements,makingthepressureevengreateronprice.n IntheUS,incentiveslike0%financingormoneybackhavekeptvolumeupbuthavealsopressuredprices.Whileincentivesareexpensive,wheneverautomakerspushp
18、ricesbackuptheirvolumescollapse.Global Automotive Industry is on a Gradual Slide Asidefromproductissues,TheBig3haveunder-fundedpensionliabilitiesandhealth-carebenefitsforretirees.Fordislosingcashandtheirbondshavebeendowngradedtojunkstatus.IftheUSmarketcontinuestoslidealarge-scalecompetitiverestructu
19、ringcouldoccur.Europeancarmakers,likeFiat,whichisladenwithdebtandproductionissues,couldbepurchasedbyothercompanieslikeGM(thatowns20%),oreventuallybeboughtoutbythestate.TheindustryupsidesfortheBig3:GeneralMotorswillcontinuetopursueitsgrowthstrategiesinordertoremaincompetitive.DaimlerChryslersisinthem
20、idstofitsimprovedcoststructure,allowingittobettercompetewithGM.Fordisspendingalotofmoneyoncapitalexpenditures.Ifthecompanydoesnotexecute,itmaybeincrisis.TheBig3productshavehigherqualitythanever,althoughtheperceptionofqualityisnotashighasitshouldbe.Company Pension HealthcareGeneralMotors$19,300$51,00
21、0Ford$7,300$22,741DaimlerChrysler 3,100 12,113Pension and healthcare source:MSDW,Based on Mmgt.DiscussionsTotalUSPensionFundandHealthcareLiability(inMM)US Automotive Market:Slowing,but Still the LargestTheUSautoindustryisthemostimportantonetotheglobalindustrysincetherewere16.7MregistrationsintheUnit
22、edStatesin2002(downbymorethan3%fromthealltimehighin2000).TheUSmarketforlighttrucksandSUVs(8.6Mregistrationsin2002)surpassedthecarmarketin2002(8.1Mregistrations).n ThelowlevelofUSfueltaxesboostedSUVsalesfarmorethaninanyothercountry,althoughrisingoilpricesandenvironmentallegislationcouldreducesales.n
23、In2002,roughlyone-fifthofthecars,lighttrucksandSUVsregisteredintheUnitedStateswereforeign.Californiahasthehighestrateofpassengercarpurchases,accountingforroughly13%ofthetotal.n TheUSindustry,regardlessofitshighnumbers,iscurrentlysaturated.Thestockofpassengercarsperheadwastheninthlargestintheworldin2
24、002.Withnearly500carsper1000ofthepopulation,theUShasmorecarsperheadthantheUnitedKingdom,butslightlyfewerthanItalyandGermany.n CarusageisextremelyhighintheUnitedStatesoverothercountriesintheworld.TheaveragepersonintheUnitedStatestravelsabout9,000kmperyear,comparedto6,000kminWesternEuropeand4,000kminJ
25、apan.Big 3 Continue to Lose Market Share to JapanAstheautomotiveindustrygetsmorecompetitive,AmericanconsumersarebuyingmoreJapaneseautomobilesduetotheirreputationforqualityandvalue.Toyota,HondaandNissanincreasedtheirU.S.salesandmarketshareinthefirsthalfof2003,whiletheBigThreemanufacturers(GM,Ford,Dai
26、mlerChrysler)sawtheirsalesdeclinedespitespendingheavilyonincentives.Thistrendstartedin1998,whendomesticmanufacturersstartedtolosenearly10pointsofshare,andtheJapanesegainednearly5.Industry-wide,carandlight-trucksalesweredown2.5%throughJune,to8.2M.However,thethreebiggestJapanesemanufacturerssold100,00
27、0morevehicles,andthedomesticBigThreesold200,000fewer.MarketshareforallJapanesebrandsisatanall-timehighof28.5%,anddomesticbrandshaveshrunktoahistoriclowof60.5%.TheeconomicdownturnhasfavoredautomakerslikeToyotasinceconsumershavebecomemorestingyanddiscriminatingwiththeirpurchases,thusfavoringqualityand
28、value,whicharethemajorsellingpointsformostJapaneseautomakers(versus,forexample,luxuryautos).TheJapanesecontinuetograbbiggerchunksofthemarketdespiterecordspendingonincentivesbytheirdomesticrivals.AtthebeginningofJune,incentivesforChrysler,FordandGMaveraged$3,389pervehicle,versus$1,062forJapanesebrand
29、s.Koreanmakesaveraged$1,371andEuropeanbrandsaveraged$1,945.USCar/TruckShare1996vs.2003Source:The Economist,June 2003Big 3 Continue to Lose Market Share to Japan TheBig3sincentives(14%ofsaleprices)arelikelyunsustainable.TheirdependenceonincreasinglylargeincentivestooffsetthelowerresalevalueofUScarsre
30、flectsperceivedproblemswiththeirlong-termqualityanddurability.Forexample,ToyotaandGMcarscanbevirtuallyidentical(sometimesmadeonthesameassemblylineaspartofaGM-Toyotajointventure),butbecauseGMsellsintheused-carmarketfor15-20%lessthanToyota,2GMroutinelyofferspurchaseincentivesof$1,000acar,fourtimesmore
31、thanToyotasgivebacks.3 TheBig3continuetoconcentratetheirtestingeffortsonthedefectratesofproductcomponents.However,thisfocusdoesntincreasethelikelihoodofproducingamoreappealingcar.FortheBig3,testsratethecarscomponentsbutwithlessemphasisontheperformanceoftheentirecarasmeasuredbythedesiredattributes(su
32、chasquietness).Conversely,Japaneseautomakersareparticularlyeffectiveattestingfortheattributesthatexcitetheirtargetcustomers.TheHondaCivic,forexample,istestedextensivelyforthreekeyattributes:fuelefficiency,initialproductquality,anddurability.Theresultingvehicleismorethanacollectionofdefect-freesubsys
33、tems;itisacarthatperformswellintheareasthatcustomershavecometoexpectfromHonda.TheupsidefordomesticautomakersisthatitisdoubtfultheJapanesecancontinueincreasingtheirshareatthesamepace.FewersegmentsareleftfortheJapanesetoinvade.TheToyotadivision,forexample,offersafulllineofvehiclescomparabletoFordorChe
34、vrolet,andithasarangeofmodelsintheLexusluxurydivisionthatincludessedans,SUVs,andsportscars.ProfitabilityisalsopressuredattheBig3comparedtoAsianmanufacturers.Forexample,Hondaaverages$1,581inprofitpervehicle(soldintheUS)andToyotagets$1,214.GeneralMotors,however,earnsonly$701whileChryslerGroupmakesonly
35、$226.Fordlosesanaverageof$114oneachvehiclesoldlastyear.Global Automotive Industry:Market Share by RevenueTheglobalautomotiveindustryishighlyconcentratedwhilemarketshareisshifting.n DaimlerChrysler,FordMotor,andGeneralMotorsmakeup44%oftotalglobalsales.However,thisisonepercentlessthanlastyear,indicati
36、ngtheBig3slossofmarketsharetosmallercompetitors.n WhileToyotahasgreatlyincreaseditsmarketshareintheUS,thecompanyhasalsolostapercentageofmarketsharesincelastyear.n ImportstoNorthAmericaarethehighesttheyvebeensincethelate80s.OfparticularconcerntoAmericanmanufacturers,lighttrucksales,oncethemajorprofit
37、generator,arelosingsharetoforeigncompetitorslikeToyotaandNissan.Source:Standard And Poors,2003Industry Profitability Severely PressuredThelargeautomakershavebeenfightingthedownturnandtryingtosustainsaleswithlargerebatesandeasycreditintheUSandincreasinglyinEurope.However,thesestrategieshaveseriouslyp
38、ressuredprofits.DaimlerChryslerreportedinJuly2003thatnetincomefellworsethanithassincetheindustryslastpoorearningsperiodinlate2001.Mitsubishipromotedeasycredit,includingloansthatdeferredpaymentsforayeartoconsumerswithweakcreditbuthaverecentlyrescindedthispromotionduetoprofiterosion.PSAsprofitwashitmo
39、stlyduetotheriseoftheEuro,especiallyagainsttheBritishPoundandBrazilianReal,Brazilbeingwhereithasoneplant.Someautomakersareattributingthisspanofpoorearningstothebottomofthecurrentcycleofslowdown,howevermanyarestillseekingstructuralimprovementsandbetterpricingpowertobufferthiscycle.Company EarningsSta
40、tus IssuesGeneralMotorsOperatingprofitfell87%,AnnouncedearningsAugust8,2003IntenseUSpricewarseverelypressuredprofitsDaimlerChryslerSecondquarter2003operatingprofitfell62%Chryslerlosses,USpricewar,MercedessalesslackingRenault Operatingprofitfell588million.Lastreported7/24/03Globalsalesdecline(4.5%)in
41、firsthalf;adversecurrencymovesPSAPuegotCitreonOperatingprofitsinautodivisiondown27%infirsthalf2003Strongeuro,weakFrenchdemandVolkswagen 400millionoffitspretaxprofit,announcedMay2003Foreign-exchangemoves,weakEuropeansalesMitsubishi Forecasting$674MnetlossasofJuly2003USsalesdown20%in6mos.April;anticip
42、ates$420MchargeforbadcarloansFord 96%dropinoperatingprofitinmidJulyannouncements$525MlossatFordofEurope,USpricewarSource:Wall Street Journal,Earnings ReportsAutomakers Still Poor at Aligning Supply and DemandProfitsintheglobalautoindustryaresufferingsinceOEMscannotaligntheirsupplywithconsumerdemand.
43、Whileconsumerdemanddataisreadilyavailable,carmakersfollowlaggingindicatorsandtheresultisineffectiveadvertisingandrebatesandinventoryoverstocks.Thecurrentmethodsthatautomakersusetosatisfydemandareoutofalignment.n Inrecordsalesyears(suchas2001),profitsintheautomobileindustryaveragedamere1.2%andonlythr
44、eecompaniesBMW,HondaandMagnaInternational-had5%profit.n Forecastsoftenmissactualdemand.Forexample,demandforDaimlersPTCruiserfarexceededsupplywhenitcameonthemarket.ThenDCXrampedupcapacityto230Kunits,makingitordinaryandbuyersmovedon.Rightnowthefactoryisdiscountingthemodel,furthererodingthemodelsimage.
45、n Suppliersarehurtbyvariation.WhenanOEMplansincorrectlyonaparticularplatformvolume,ofabout10-15%,thefactoryhastoraiseorlowervolumesuddenly.n In2002saleswerethelowestinfouryears,leavingvehicleinventoryat70days.Seventydaysofinventorycanmean$40Bincapitalsittingonlots.MeanwhiledealersandOEMsspend$3Band$
46、11B,respectively,everyyearonadvertisements.n Theloopfromproductionplanningtomanufacturetosaleandbacktakesupto6months,whichistoolongtofixoverproductionofanunpopularconfigurationortoinformsuppliersofsurgesindemand.Withalaggingmarket,intensecompetitionandmorerapidlyshiftingconsumertastes,thispooralignm
47、enthasbeenmoreobviousintheindustrythanever.n Automakersarestillapplyinglastyearssalesresultstothecurrentyearspre-plannedvolumewithoutconsiderationofhowmanydaysittooktosellspecificvehicles.US Automotive Distribution:Inefficient NetworkDealersaccountfornearlyallUScarandcommercial-vehiclesales,butthese
48、networksareincreasinglyinefficient.Automotivecompanieshavenotbeenabletorelocateorshutdownpoorperformersduetostatelaws.However,itispossibletoreshapedealernetworksbyorchestratingaseriesofownershipchanges,encouragingweakperformerstoexitthemarket,helpingtopperformerstoexpand,andencouragingdealerstoimpro
49、vesalesskills.Giventightprofitmargins,manufacturerscandefinitelyusetheextraprofitthatamoreefficientdistributionsystemcoulddeliver.U.Sdealernetworkswerebuiltinanincrementalanduncoordinatedwayoverseveraldecadescreatingroomforconsolidationaswellasotherefficiency-enhancingimprovements.Manufacturershavea
50、wardedfranchisestothousandsofindependentowner-operatorsrangingfromsmallfamilybusinessestolargescalenationalchains.Onceadealershipopensforbusiness,themanufacturercantexertmuchdirectcontroloveritandmustbecontent,essentially,withtheroleofproductandfinancingsupplier.Multi-brandmanufacturersfacetheadditi