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1、http:/(企管培训资料下载)CIM IT Services Market Outlook:Global Automotive IndustryBusinessIntelligenceGroupAugust2003BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPContentsExecutiveSummaryAutomotiveIndustryBusinessChallenges Global Regional:US,Europe,Asia-Pacific,RestofWorldAutomotiveITSpendingTrends Global&RegionalITSpendForec
2、asts AutomotiveIndustryITTrendsAutomotiveITServicesIndustry:CompetitiveProfilesAutomotiveITServicesMarket:BearingPointAlliancesSourcesandContactBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPExecutive SummaryAutomakersarecurrentlyfacedwithslowersales,overcapacityanddeclinesinprofitability.Big3arelosingmarketsharetoJapa
3、neseautomakers.Toyota,HondaandNissanincreasedtheirU.S.salesandmarketshareinthefirsthalfof2003,whiletheBigThreemanufacturers(GM,Ford,DaimlerChrysler)sawtheirsalesdeclinedespitespendingheavilyonincentives.Currentlytheglobalautomotiveindustryhastoomuchcapacity(roughly30%)andassalesfall,theproblemcontin
4、ues.Carpriceshavebeenfallingmakingalreadythinmarginsevenmorepressured.Theglobalautomotiveindustryisfacedwithmorecompetition,greaterpricetransparency,risingcustomerexpectationsandqualityimprovements,makingthepressureevengreateronpriceandprofitability.Chinapresentsthebestopportunityforautomakersduetoi
5、ncreasedgovernmentincentivesandcooperation,cheaperlabor,andproximitytoalargepopulationofpotentialconsumers.Chinacontinuestomakeprogresstowardsamarketeconomywhichhasledtoglobalbusinesses,likeautomotivecompanies,tryingtorampupinordertotapintothecountryslargemarketplaceof1.3Bconsumers.Ayearafterentryin
6、totheWTO,in2003,Chinasautomotiveindustryproduced3.25Mmotorvehicleunits(38%growthcomparedtotheyearbefore).ITIssues:Industryinsurvivalmode,pressuringspending;OpportunitiesforCRMn Mostmanufacturingverticals,includingAutomotive,havebeenoperatingin“survivalmode”,spendingverylittleoncapitalandoperationale
7、xpenses;ITspendinghassufferedasaresult.TheNorthAmericanmanufacturingmarketconstitutesapproximately45%ofthetotalworldmanufacturingITspend.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPExecutive Summaryn CurrentlyintheautomotiveindustrythereislesssignificanceplacedontheroleofITinsupportingbusinessstrategies,especiallyin
8、comparisontoindustrieslikeFinancialServicesorHealthcarepayerindustries.ThisisalargedeterminantofITbudget.n Inordertounderstandtheirnear-termsalesvolume,optionmixandpricesensitivity,automakershavetostartunderstandingtheircustomersbetterthroughthemanysignalstheyseefromtheirconsumersinteractions.Muchof
9、thiscanbeaccomplishedthroughCRMinitiatives.n Whiledealerincentiveshavebeenusedbymostofthemajorautomakers,especiallyintheUS,companiesleveragingtheirexistingCRMmightbeabletogetmoreforless.Thedatagatheredfromincentiveprogramsflowingbacktomanufacturersanddealerscanallowfollow-upcampaignsthatbridgethegap
10、betweensalesandmarketing.n ERPvendorsareturningtheirfocustodeliveringextendedapplicationsinareasofSCM,CRMandPLMtocompensateforthelossofrevenuefromlarge-scaleprojects.CompetitorsandAlliancesn DeloitteConsultinghasajointinitiativewithSAPtosupporttheautomotiveindustryinthedeploymentofthemySAPAutomotive
11、solutiononaworldwidebasis.Aspartofthisinitiative,DCandSAParedevelopingmethodsforcustomer-specificanalysisonfeasibility,cost-benefit,andROI.n IBMencouragestheirengineerstorotateinandoutofthefield,spendingtimesolvingreal-lifeproblemswhilenotabandoningtheirinsideresearch.IBMhascreatedaninnovationservic
12、esgroupwithinitsresearchunitdedicatedtoworkingonautomotivecustomerproblems,makingthemcapableoftakingtheirresearchandapplyittobusinessissues.n IntheEuropeanautomotiveindustry,SAPiscurrentlyfocusingoncrossfunctionalprocesses,packagingtheirSCM,PLMandCRMallinone,usingdifferentmodules,approachingitfromth
13、eperspectiveofthebusinessprocessesthatcrosstheseareas.http:/(企管培训资料下载)Global Automotive Industry:Business ChallengesBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPGlobal Automotive Industry is on a Gradual SlideTheworldsautomotiveindustryhasbeenonagradualdownwardslideoverthepastyear,acceleratedtosomedegreebythelikeliho
14、odofamajorbankruptcyandfurtherrestructuringoftheindustry.n Inhibitorsincludeweak(regional)consumerconfidence,highunemploymentanduncertainglobalequitymarkets,allofwhichhaveledtolowersales.n InEurope,thefirstfivemonthsof2003sawsalesdropby4%whilenewregistrationsforMayfellthelowestinfiveyears.TheUSmarke
15、tisforecasttoshrink4%thisyear.n Currentlytheglobalautomotiveindustryhastoomuchcapacity(roughly30%)andassalesfall,theproblemcontinues.Muchoftheover-capacityisduetoeachindividualcompanyexpectingtogrowfasterthanitsrivals.Andwhilethe90sshowedstrongreturns,manyautomakersinvestedinadditionalcapacity,creat
16、edriskymodels,builtmorefactoriesandenteredintoemergingmarketsthathadmorelongtermpromisethanshortterm.n Formanyyearsthelargesttruckandcarmakershavecontinuallysustainedlossesoutoftheirprimarybusinessesofcarsales,oftenmakingprofitsthroughmoneymadefromsellingsparepartsatinflatedprices,throughfinancingbu
17、sinessesorthroughexchangerates.Thisstructureisincreasinglyexposedinadownturn,especiallywhenincentiveslike0%financinghavehamperedthefinancingbusiness.n Carpriceshavebeenfallingmakingalreadythinmarginsevenmorepressured.Theglobalautomotiveindustryisfacedwithmorecompetition,greaterpricetransparency,risi
18、ngcustomerexpectationsandqualityimprovements,makingthepressureevengreateronprice.n IntheUS,incentiveslike0%financingormoneybackhavekeptvolumeupbuthavealsopressuredprices.Whileincentivesareexpensive,wheneverautomakerspushpricesbackuptheirvolumescollapse.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPGlobal Automotive In
19、dustry is on a Gradual Slide Asidefromproductissues,TheBig3haveunder-fundedpensionliabilitiesandhealth-carebenefitsforretirees.Fordislosingcashandtheirbondshavebeendowngradedtojunkstatus.IftheUSmarketcontinuestoslidealarge-scalecompetitiverestructuringcouldoccur.Europeancarmakers,likeFiat,whichislad
20、enwithdebtandproductionissues,couldbepurchasedbyothercompanieslikeGM(thatowns20%),oreventuallybeboughtoutbythestate.TheindustryupsidesfortheBig3:GeneralMotorswillcontinuetopursueitsgrowthstrategiesinordertoremaincompetitive.DaimlerChryslersisinthemidstofitsimprovedcoststructure,allowingittobettercom
21、petewithGM.Fordisspendingalotofmoneyoncapitalexpenditures.Ifthecompanydoesnotexecute,itmaybeincrisis.TheBig3productshavehigherqualitythanever,althoughtheperceptionofqualityisnotashighasitshouldbe.Company Pension HealthcareGeneralMotors$19,300$51,000Ford$7,300$22,741DaimlerChrysler 3,100 12,113Pensio
22、n and healthcare source:MSDW,Based on Mmgt.DiscussionsTotalUSPensionFundandHealthcareLiability(inMM)BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPUS Automotive Market:Slowing,but Still the LargestTheUSautoindustryisthemostimportantonetotheglobalindustrysincetherewere16.7MregistrationsintheUnitedStatesin2002(downbymore
23、than3%fromthealltimehighin2000).TheUSmarketforlighttrucksandSUVs(8.6Mregistrationsin2002)surpassedthecarmarketin2002(8.1Mregistrations).n ThelowlevelofUSfueltaxesboostedSUVsalesfarmorethaninanyothercountry,althoughrisingoilpricesandenvironmentallegislationcouldreducesales.n In2002,roughlyone-fifthof
24、thecars,lighttrucksandSUVsregisteredintheUnitedStateswereforeign.Californiahasthehighestrateofpassengercarpurchases,accountingforroughly13%ofthetotal.n TheUSindustry,regardlessofitshighnumbers,iscurrentlysaturated.Thestockofpassengercarsperheadwastheninthlargestintheworldin2002.Withnearly500carsper1
25、000ofthepopulation,theUShasmorecarsperheadthantheUnitedKingdom,butslightlyfewerthanItalyandGermany.n CarusageisextremelyhighintheUnitedStatesoverothercountriesintheworld.TheaveragepersonintheUnitedStatestravelsabout9,000kmperyear,comparedto6,000kminWesternEuropeand4,000kminJapan.BUSINESS INTELLIGENC
26、E GROUPBig 3 Continue to Lose Market Share to JapanAstheautomotiveindustrygetsmorecompetitive,AmericanconsumersarebuyingmoreJapaneseautomobilesduetotheirreputationforqualityandvalue.Toyota,HondaandNissanincreasedtheirU.S.salesandmarketshareinthefirsthalfof2003,whiletheBigThreemanufacturers(GM,Ford,D
27、aimlerChrysler)sawtheirsalesdeclinedespitespendingheavilyonincentives.Thistrendstartedin1998,whendomesticmanufacturersstartedtolosenearly10pointsofshare,andtheJapanesegainednearly5.Industry-wide,carandlight-trucksalesweredown2.5%throughJune,to8.2M.However,thethreebiggestJapanesemanufacturerssold100,
28、000morevehicles,andthedomesticBigThreesold200,000fewer.MarketshareforallJapanesebrandsisatanall-timehighof28.5%,anddomesticbrandshaveshrunktoahistoriclowof60.5%.TheeconomicdownturnhasfavoredautomakerslikeToyotasinceconsumershavebecomemorestingyanddiscriminatingwiththeirpurchases,thusfavoringqualitya
29、ndvalue,whicharethemajorsellingpointsformostJapaneseautomakers(versus,forexample,luxuryautos).TheJapanesecontinuetograbbiggerchunksofthemarketdespiterecordspendingonincentivesbytheirdomesticrivals.AtthebeginningofJune,incentivesforChrysler,FordandGMaveraged$3,389pervehicle,versus$1,062forJapanesebra
30、nds.Koreanmakesaveraged$1,371andEuropeanbrandsaveraged$1,945.USCar/TruckShare1996vs.2003Source:The Economist,June 2003BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPBig 3 Continue to Lose Market Share to Japan TheBig3sincentives(14%ofsaleprices)arelikelyunsustainable.Theirdependenceonincreasinglylargeincentivestooffset
31、thelowerresalevalueofUScarsreflectsperceivedproblemswiththeirlong-termqualityanddurability.Forexample,ToyotaandGMcarscanbevirtuallyidentical(sometimesmadeonthesameassemblylineaspartofaGM-Toyotajointventure),butbecauseGMsellsintheused-carmarketfor15-20%lessthanToyota,2GMroutinelyofferspurchaseincenti
32、vesof$1,000acar,fourtimesmorethanToyotasgivebacks.3 TheBig3continuetoconcentratetheirtestingeffortsonthedefectratesofproductcomponents.However,thisfocusdoesntincreasethelikelihoodofproducingamoreappealingcar.FortheBig3,testsratethecarscomponentsbutwithlessemphasisontheperformanceoftheentirecarasmeas
33、uredbythedesiredattributes(suchasquietness).Conversely,Japaneseautomakersareparticularlyeffectiveattestingfortheattributesthatexcitetheirtargetcustomers.TheHondaCivic,forexample,istestedextensivelyforthreekeyattributes:fuelefficiency,initialproductquality,anddurability.Theresultingvehicleismorethana
34、collectionofdefect-freesubsystems;itisacarthatperformswellintheareasthatcustomershavecometoexpectfromHonda.TheupsidefordomesticautomakersisthatitisdoubtfultheJapanesecancontinueincreasingtheirshareatthesamepace.FewersegmentsareleftfortheJapanesetoinvade.TheToyotadivision,forexample,offersafulllineof
35、vehiclescomparabletoFordorChevrolet,andithasarangeofmodelsintheLexusluxurydivisionthatincludessedans,SUVs,andsportscars.ProfitabilityisalsopressuredattheBig3comparedtoAsianmanufacturers.Forexample,Hondaaverages$1,581inprofitpervehicle(soldintheUS)andToyotagets$1,214.GeneralMotors,however,earnsonly$7
36、01whileChryslerGroupmakesonly$226.Fordlosesanaverageof$114oneachvehiclesoldlastyear.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPGlobal Automotive Industry:Market Share by RevenueTheglobalautomotiveindustryishighlyconcentratedwhilemarketshareisshifting.n DaimlerChrysler,FordMotor,andGeneralMotorsmakeup44%oftotalgloba
37、lsales.However,thisisonepercentlessthanlastyear,indicatingtheBig3slossofmarketsharetosmallercompetitors.n WhileToyotahasgreatlyincreaseditsmarketshareintheUS,thecompanyhasalsolostapercentageofmarketsharesincelastyear.n ImportstoNorthAmericaarethehighesttheyvebeensincethelate80s.Ofparticularconcernto
38、Americanmanufacturers,lighttrucksales,oncethemajorprofitgenerator,arelosingsharetoforeigncompetitorslikeToyotaandNissan.Source:Standard And Poors,2003BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPIndustry Profitability Severely PressuredThelargeautomakershavebeenfightingthedownturnandtryingtosustainsaleswithlargerebat
39、esandeasycreditintheUSandincreasinglyinEurope.However,thesestrategieshaveseriouslypressuredprofits.DaimlerChryslerreportedinJuly2003thatnetincomefellworsethanithassincetheindustryslastpoorearningsperiodinlate2001.Mitsubishipromotedeasycredit,includingloansthatdeferredpaymentsforayeartoconsumerswithw
40、eakcreditbuthaverecentlyrescindedthispromotionduetoprofiterosion.PSAsprofitwashitmostlyduetotheriseoftheEuro,especiallyagainsttheBritishPoundandBrazilianReal,Brazilbeingwhereithasoneplant.Someautomakersareattributingthisspanofpoorearningstothebottomofthecurrentcycleofslowdown,howevermanyarestillseek
41、ingstructuralimprovementsandbetterpricingpowertobufferthiscycle.Company EarningsStatus IssuesGeneralMotorsOperatingprofitfell87%,AnnouncedearningsAugust8,2003IntenseUSpricewarseverelypressuredprofitsDaimlerChryslerSecondquarter2003operatingprofitfell62%Chryslerlosses,USpricewar,Mercedessalesslacking
42、Renault Operatingprofitfell588million.Lastreported7/24/03Globalsalesdecline(4.5%)infirsthalf;adversecurrencymovesPSAPuegotCitreonOperatingprofitsinautodivisiondown27%infirsthalf2003Strongeuro,weakFrenchdemandVolkswagen 400millionoffitspretaxprofit,announcedMay2003Foreign-exchangemoves,weakEuropeansa
43、lesMitsubishi Forecasting$674MnetlossasofJuly2003USsalesdown20%in6mos.April;anticipates$420MchargeforbadcarloansFord 96%dropinoperatingprofitinmidJulyannouncements$525MlossatFordofEurope,USpricewarSource:Wall Street Journal,Earnings ReportsBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPAutomakers Still Poor at Aligning
44、 Supply and DemandProfitsintheglobalautoindustryaresufferingsinceOEMscannotaligntheirsupplywithconsumerdemand.Whileconsumerdemanddataisreadilyavailable,carmakersfollowlaggingindicatorsandtheresultisineffectiveadvertisingandrebatesandinventoryoverstocks.Thecurrentmethodsthatautomakersusetosatisfydema
45、ndareoutofalignment.n Inrecordsalesyears(suchas2001),profitsintheautomobileindustryaveragedamere1.2%andonlythreecompaniesBMW,HondaandMagnaInternational-had5%profit.n Forecastsoftenmissactualdemand.Forexample,demandforDaimlersPTCruiserfarexceededsupplywhenitcameonthemarket.ThenDCXrampedupcapacityto23
46、0Kunits,makingitordinaryandbuyersmovedon.Rightnowthefactoryisdiscountingthemodel,furthererodingthemodelsimage.n Suppliersarehurtbyvariation.WhenanOEMplansincorrectlyonaparticularplatformvolume,ofabout10-15%,thefactoryhastoraiseorlowervolumesuddenly.n In2002saleswerethelowestinfouryears,leavingvehicl
47、einventoryat70days.Seventydaysofinventorycanmean$40Bincapitalsittingonlots.MeanwhiledealersandOEMsspend$3Band$11B,respectively,everyyearonadvertisements.n Theloopfromproductionplanningtomanufacturetosaleandbacktakesupto6months,whichistoolongtofixoverproductionofanunpopularconfigurationortoinformsupp
48、liersofsurgesindemand.Withalaggingmarket,intensecompetitionandmorerapidlyshiftingconsumertastes,thispooralignmenthasbeenmoreobviousintheindustrythanever.n Automakersarestillapplyinglastyearssalesresultstothecurrentyearspre-plannedvolumewithoutconsiderationofhowmanydaysittooktosellspecificvehicles.BU
49、SINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPUS Automotive Distribution:Inefficient NetworkDealersaccountfornearlyallUScarandcommercial-vehiclesales,butthesenetworksareincreasinglyinefficient.Automotivecompanieshavenotbeenabletorelocateorshutdownpoorperformersduetostatelaws.However,itispossibletoreshapedealernetworksby
50、orchestratingaseriesofownershipchanges,encouragingweakperformerstoexitthemarket,helpingtopperformerstoexpand,andencouragingdealerstoimprovesalesskills.Giventightprofitmargins,manufacturerscandefinitelyusetheextraprofitthatamoreefficientdistributionsystemcoulddeliver.U.Sdealernetworkswerebuiltinaninc