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1、CIM IT Services Market Outlook:Global Automotive IndustryBusinessIntelligenceGroupAugust2003BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPContentsExecutiveSummaryAutomotiveIndustryBusinessChallengesGlobalRegional:US,Europe,Asia-Pacific,RestofWorldAutomotiveITSpendingTrendsGlobal&RegionalITSpendForecastsAutomotiveIndus
2、tryITTrendsAutomotiveITServicesIndustry:CompetitiveProfilesAutomotiveITServicesMarket:BearingPointAlliancesSourcesandContactBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPExecutive SummaryAutomakersarecurrentlyfacedwithslowersales,overcapacityanddeclinesinprofitability.Big3arelosingmarketsharetoJapaneseautomakers.Toyot
3、a,HondaandNissanincreasedtheirU.S.salesandmarketshareinthefirsthalfof2003,whiletheBigThreemanufacturers(GM,Ford,DaimlerChrysler)sawtheirsalesdeclinedespitespendingheavilyonincentives.Currentlytheglobalautomotiveindustryhastoomuchcapacity(roughly30%)andassalesfall,theproblemcontinues.Carpriceshavebee
4、nfallingmakingalreadythinmarginsevenmorepressured.Theglobalautomotiveindustryisfacedwithmorecompetition,greaterpricetransparency,risingcustomerexpectationsandqualityimprovements,makingthepressureevengreateronpriceandprofitability.Chinapresentsthebestopportunityforautomakersduetoincreasedgovernmentin
5、centivesandcooperation,cheaperlabor,andproximitytoalargepopulationofpotentialconsumers.Chinacontinuestomakeprogresstowardsamarketeconomywhichhasledtoglobalbusinesses,likeautomotivecompanies,tryingtorampupinordertotapintothecountryslargemarketplaceof1.3Bconsumers.AyearafterentryintotheWTO,in2003,Chin
6、asautomotiveindustryproduced3.25Mmotorvehicleunits(38%growthcomparedtotheyearbefore).ITIssues:Industryinsurvivalmode,pressuringspending;OpportunitiesforCRMnMostmanufacturingverticals,includingAutomotive,havebeenoperatingin“survivalmode”,spendingverylittleoncapitalandoperationalexpenses;ITspendinghas
7、sufferedasaresult.TheNorthAmericanmanufacturingmarketconstitutesapproximately45%ofthetotalworldmanufacturingITspend.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPExecutive SummarynCurrentlyintheautomotiveindustrythereislesssignificanceplacedontheroleofITinsupportingbusinessstrategies,especiallyincomparisontoindustries
8、likeFinancialServicesorHealthcarepayerindustries.ThisisalargedeterminantofITbudget.nInordertounderstandtheirnear-termsalesvolume,optionmixandpricesensitivity,automakershavetostartunderstandingtheircustomersbetterthroughthemanysignalstheyseefromtheirconsumersinteractions.Muchofthiscanbeaccomplishedth
9、roughCRMinitiatives.nWhiledealerincentiveshavebeenusedbymostofthemajorautomakers,especiallyintheUS,companiesleveragingtheirexistingCRMmightbeabletogetmoreforless.Thedatagatheredfromincentiveprogramsflowingbacktomanufacturersanddealerscanallowfollow-upcampaignsthatbridgethegapbetweensalesandmarketing
10、.nERPvendorsareturningtheirfocustodeliveringextendedapplicationsinareasofSCM,CRMandPLMtocompensateforthelossofrevenuefromlarge-scaleprojects.CompetitorsandAlliancesnDeloitteConsultinghasajointinitiativewithSAPtosupporttheautomotiveindustryinthedeploymentofthemySAPAutomotivesolutiononaworldwidebasis.
11、Aspartofthisinitiative,DCandSAParedevelopingmethodsforcustomer-specificanalysisonfeasibility,cost-benefit,andROI.nIBMencouragestheirengineerstorotateinandoutofthefield,spendingtimesolvingreal-lifeproblemswhilenotabandoningtheirinsideresearch.IBMhascreatedaninnovationservicesgroupwithinitsresearchuni
12、tdedicatedtoworkingonautomotivecustomerproblems,makingthemcapableoftakingtheirresearchandapplyittobusinessissues.nIntheEuropeanautomotiveindustry,SAPiscurrentlyfocusingoncrossfunctionalprocesses,packagingtheirSCM,PLMandCRMallinone,usingdifferentmodules,approachingitfromtheperspectiveofthebusinesspro
13、cessesthatcrosstheseareas.Global Automotive Industry:Business ChallengesBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPGlobal Automotive Industry is on a Gradual SlideTheworldsautomotiveindustryhasbeenonagradualdownwardslideoverthepastyear,acceleratedtosomedegreebythelikelihoodofamajorbankruptcyandfurtherrestructuringo
14、ftheindustry.nInhibitorsincludeweak(regional)consumerconfidence,highunemploymentanduncertainglobalequitymarkets,allofwhichhaveledtolowersales.nInEurope,thefirstfivemonthsof2003sawsalesdropby4%whilenewregistrationsforMayfellthelowestinfiveyears.TheUSmarketisforecasttoshrink4%thisyear.nCurrentlytheglo
15、balautomotiveindustryhastoomuchcapacity(roughly30%)andassalesfall,theproblemcontinues.Muchoftheover-capacityisduetoeachindividualcompanyexpectingtogrowfasterthanitsrivals.Andwhilethe90sshowedstrongreturns,manyautomakersinvestedinadditionalcapacity,createdriskymodels,builtmorefactoriesandenteredintoe
16、mergingmarketsthathadmorelongtermpromisethanshortterm.nFormanyyearsthelargesttruckandcarmakershavecontinuallysustainedlossesoutoftheirprimarybusinessesofcarsales,oftenmakingprofitsthroughmoneymadefromsellingsparepartsatinflatedprices,throughfinancingbusinessesorthroughexchangerates.Thisstructureisin
17、creasinglyexposedinadownturn,especiallywhenincentiveslike0%financinghavehamperedthefinancingbusiness.nCarpriceshavebeenfallingmakingalreadythinmarginsevenmorepressured.Theglobalautomotiveindustryisfacedwithmorecompetition,greaterpricetransparency,risingcustomerexpectationsandqualityimprovements,maki
18、ngthepressureevengreateronprice.nIntheUS,incentiveslike0%financingormoneybackhavekeptvolumeupbuthavealsopressuredprices.Whileincentivesareexpensive,wheneverautomakerspushpricesbackuptheirvolumescollapse.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPGlobal Automotive Industry is on a Gradual SlideAsidefromproductissues
19、,TheBig3haveunder-fundedpensionliabilitiesandhealth-carebenefitsforretirees.Fordislosingcashandtheirbondshavebeendowngradedtojunkstatus.IftheUSmarketcontinuestoslidealarge-scalecompetitiverestructuringcouldoccur.Europeancarmakers,likeFiat,whichisladenwithdebtandproductionissues,couldbepurchasedbyoth
20、ercompanieslikeGM(thatowns20%),oreventuallybeboughtoutbythestate.TheindustryupsidesfortheBig3:GeneralMotorswillcontinuetopursueitsgrowthstrategiesinordertoremaincompetitive.DaimlerChryslersisinthemidstofitsimprovedcoststructure,allowingittobettercompetewithGM.Fordisspendingalotofmoneyoncapitalexpend
21、itures.Ifthecompanydoesnotexecute,itmaybeincrisis.TheBig3productshavehigherqualitythanever,althoughtheperceptionofqualityisnotashighasitshouldbe.CompanyPensionHealthcareGeneralMotors$19,300$51,000Ford$7,300$22,741DaimlerChrysler3,10012,113Pension and healthcare source:MSDW,Based on Mmgt.DiscussionsT
22、otalUSPensionFundandHealthcareLiability(inMM)BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPUS Automotive Market:Slowing,but Still the LargestTheUSautoindustryisthemostimportantonetotheglobalindustrysincetherewere16.7MregistrationsintheUnitedStatesin2002(downbymorethan3%fromthealltimehighin2000).TheUSmarketforlighttruc
23、ksandSUVs(8.6Mregistrationsin2002)surpassedthecarmarketin2002(8.1Mregistrations).nThelowlevelofUSfueltaxesboostedSUVsalesfarmorethaninanyothercountry,althoughrisingoilpricesandenvironmentallegislationcouldreducesales.nIn2002,roughlyone-fifthofthecars,lighttrucksandSUVsregisteredintheUnitedStateswere
24、foreign.Californiahasthehighestrateofpassengercarpurchases,accountingforroughly13%ofthetotal.nTheUSindustry,regardlessofitshighnumbers,iscurrentlysaturated.Thestockofpassengercarsperheadwastheninthlargestintheworldin2002.Withnearly500carsper1000ofthepopulation,theUShasmorecarsperheadthantheUnitedKin
25、gdom,butslightlyfewerthanItalyandGermany.nCarusageisextremelyhighintheUnitedStatesoverothercountriesintheworld.TheaveragepersonintheUnitedStatestravelsabout9,000kmperyear,comparedto6,000kminWesternEuropeand4,000kminJapan.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPBig 3 Continue to Lose Market Share to JapanAstheaut
26、omotiveindustrygetsmorecompetitive,AmericanconsumersarebuyingmoreJapaneseautomobilesduetotheirreputationforqualityandvalue.Toyota,HondaandNissanincreasedtheirU.S.salesandmarketshareinthefirsthalfof2003,whiletheBigThreemanufacturers(GM,Ford,DaimlerChrysler)sawtheirsalesdeclinedespitespendingheavilyon
27、incentives.Thistrendstartedin1998,whendomesticmanufacturersstartedtolosenearly10pointsofshare,andtheJapanesegainednearly5.Industry-wide,carandlight-trucksalesweredown2.5%throughJune,to8.2M.However,thethreebiggestJapanesemanufacturerssold100,000morevehicles,andthedomesticBigThreesold200,000fewer.Mark
28、etshareforallJapanesebrandsisatanall-timehighof28.5%,anddomesticbrandshaveshrunktoahistoriclowof60.5%.TheeconomicdownturnhasfavoredautomakerslikeToyotasinceconsumershavebecomemorestingyanddiscriminatingwiththeirpurchases,thusfavoringqualityandvalue,whicharethemajorsellingpointsformostJapaneseautomak
29、ers(versus,forexample,luxuryautos).TheJapanesecontinuetograbbiggerchunksofthemarketdespiterecordspendingonincentivesbytheirdomesticrivals.AtthebeginningofJune,incentivesforChrysler,FordandGMaveraged$3,389pervehicle,versus$1,062forJapanesebrands.Koreanmakesaveraged$1,371andEuropeanbrandsaveraged$1,94
30、5.USCar/TruckShare1996vs.2003Source:The Economist,June 2003BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPBig 3 Continue to Lose Market Share to JapanTheBig3sincentives(14%ofsaleprices)arelikelyunsustainable.TheirdependenceonincreasinglylargeincentivestooffsetthelowerresalevalueofUScarsreflectsperceivedproblemswiththei
31、rlong-termqualityanddurability.Forexample,ToyotaandGMcarscanbevirtuallyidentical(sometimesmadeonthesameassemblylineaspartofaGM-Toyotajointventure),butbecauseGMsellsintheused-carmarketfor15-20%lessthanToyota,2GMroutinelyofferspurchaseincentivesof$1,000acar,fourtimesmorethanToyotasgivebacks.3TheBig3co
32、ntinuetoconcentratetheirtestingeffortsonthedefectratesofproductcomponents.However,thisfocusdoesntincreasethelikelihoodofproducingamoreappealingcar.FortheBig3,testsratethecarscomponentsbutwithlessemphasisontheperformanceoftheentirecarasmeasuredbythedesiredattributes(suchasquietness).Conversely,Japane
33、seautomakersareparticularlyeffectiveattestingfortheattributesthatexcitetheirtargetcustomers.TheHondaCivic,forexample,istestedextensivelyforthreekeyattributes:fuelefficiency,initialproductquality,anddurability.Theresultingvehicleismorethanacollectionofdefect-freesubsystems;itisacarthatperformswellint
34、heareasthatcustomershavecometoexpectfromHonda.TheupsidefordomesticautomakersisthatitisdoubtfultheJapanesecancontinueincreasingtheirshareatthesamepace.FewersegmentsareleftfortheJapanesetoinvade.TheToyotadivision,forexample,offersafulllineofvehiclescomparabletoFordorChevrolet,andithasarangeofmodelsint
35、heLexusluxurydivisionthatincludessedans,SUVs,andsportscars.ProfitabilityisalsopressuredattheBig3comparedtoAsianmanufacturers.Forexample,Hondaaverages$1,581inprofitpervehicle(soldintheUS)andToyotagets$1,214.GeneralMotors,however,earnsonly$701whileChryslerGroupmakesonly$226.Fordlosesanaverageof$114one
36、achvehiclesoldlastyear.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPGlobal Automotive Industry:Market Share by RevenueTheglobalautomotiveindustryishighlyconcentratedwhilemarketshareisshifting.nDaimlerChrysler,FordMotor,andGeneralMotorsmakeup44%oftotalglobalsales.However,thisisonepercentlessthanlastyear,indicatingtheB
37、ig3slossofmarketsharetosmallercompetitors.nWhileToyotahasgreatlyincreaseditsmarketshareintheUS,thecompanyhasalsolostapercentageofmarketsharesincelastyear.nImportstoNorthAmericaarethehighesttheyvebeensincethelate80s.OfparticularconcerntoAmericanmanufacturers,lighttrucksales,oncethemajorprofitgenerato
38、r,arelosingsharetoforeigncompetitorslikeToyotaandNissan.Source:Standard And Poors,2003BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPIndustry Profitability Severely PressuredThelargeautomakershavebeenfightingthedownturnandtryingtosustainsaleswithlargerebatesandeasycreditintheUSandincreasinglyinEurope.However,thesestrat
39、egieshaveseriouslypressuredprofits.DaimlerChryslerreportedinJuly2003thatnetincomefellworsethanithassincetheindustryslastpoorearningsperiodinlate2001.Mitsubishipromotedeasycredit,includingloansthatdeferredpaymentsforayeartoconsumerswithweakcreditbuthaverecentlyrescindedthispromotionduetoprofiterosion
40、.PSAsprofitwashitmostlyduetotheriseoftheEuro,especiallyagainsttheBritishPoundandBrazilianReal,Brazilbeingwhereithasoneplant.Someautomakersareattributingthisspanofpoorearningstothebottomofthecurrentcycleofslowdown,howevermanyarestillseekingstructuralimprovementsandbetterpricingpowertobufferthiscycle.
41、CompanyEarningsStatusIssuesGeneralMotorsOperatingprofitfell87%,AnnouncedearningsAugust8,2003IntenseUSpricewarseverelypressuredprofitsDaimlerChryslerSecondquarter2003operatingprofitfell62%Chryslerlosses,USpricewar,MercedessalesslackingRenaultOperatingprofitfell588million.Lastreported7/24/03Globalsale
42、sdecline(4.5%)infirsthalf;adversecurrencymovesPSAPuegotCitreonOperatingprofitsinautodivisiondown27%infirsthalf2003Strongeuro,weakFrenchdemandVolkswagen400millionoffitspretaxprofit,announcedMay2003Foreign-exchangemoves,weakEuropeansalesMitsubishiForecasting$674MnetlossasofJuly2003USsalesdown20%in6mos
43、.April;anticipates$420MchargeforbadcarloansFord96%dropinoperatingprofitinmidJulyannouncements$525MlossatFordofEurope,USpricewarSource:Wall Street Journal,Earnings ReportsBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPAutomakers Still Poor at Aligning Supply and DemandProfitsintheglobalautoindustryaresufferingsinceOEMsc
44、annotaligntheirsupplywithconsumerdemand.Whileconsumerdemanddataisreadilyavailable,carmakersfollowlaggingindicatorsandtheresultisineffectiveadvertisingandrebatesandinventoryoverstocks.Thecurrentmethodsthatautomakersusetosatisfydemandareoutofalignment.nInrecordsalesyears(suchas2001),profitsintheautomo
45、bileindustryaveragedamere1.2%andonlythreecompaniesBMW,HondaandMagnaInternational-had5%profit.nForecastsoftenmissactualdemand.Forexample,demandforDaimlersPTCruiserfarexceededsupplywhenitcameonthemarket.ThenDCXrampedupcapacityto230Kunits,makingitordinaryandbuyersmovedon.Rightnowthefactoryisdiscounting
46、themodel,furthererodingthemodelsimage.nSuppliersarehurtbyvariation.WhenanOEMplansincorrectlyonaparticularplatformvolume,ofabout10-15%,thefactoryhastoraiseorlowervolumesuddenly.nIn2002saleswerethelowestinfouryears,leavingvehicleinventoryat70days.Seventydaysofinventorycanmean$40Bincapitalsittingonlots
47、.MeanwhiledealersandOEMsspend$3Band$11B,respectively,everyyearonadvertisements.nTheloopfromproductionplanningtomanufacturetosaleandbacktakesupto6months,whichistoolongtofixoverproductionofanunpopularconfigurationortoinformsuppliersofsurgesindemand.Withalaggingmarket,intensecompetitionandmorerapidlysh
48、iftingconsumertastes,thispooralignmenthasbeenmoreobviousintheindustrythanever.nAutomakersarestillapplyinglastyearssalesresultstothecurrentyearspre-plannedvolumewithoutconsiderationofhowmanydaysittooktosellspecificvehicles.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPUS Automotive Distribution:Inefficient NetworkDeale
49、rsaccountfornearlyallUScarandcommercial-vehiclesales,butthesenetworksareincreasinglyinefficient.Automotivecompanieshavenotbeenabletorelocateorshutdownpoorperformersduetostatelaws.However,itispossibletoreshapedealernetworksbyorchestratingaseriesofownershipchanges,encouragingweakperformerstoexitthemar
50、ket,helpingtopperformerstoexpand,andencouragingdealerstoimprovesalesskills.Giventightprofitmargins,manufacturerscandefinitelyusetheextraprofitthatamoreefficientdistributionsystemcoulddeliver.U.Sdealernetworkswerebuiltinanincrementalanduncoordinatedwayoverseveraldecadescreatingroomforconsolidationasw