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1、CIM IT Services Market Outlook:Global Automotive IndustryBusinessIntelligenceGroupAugust2003BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPContentsExecutiveSummaryAutomotiveIndustryBusinessChallenges Global Regional:US,Europe,Asia-Pacific,RestofWorldAutomotiveITSpendingTrends Global&RegionalITSpendForecasts AutomotiveI
2、ndustryITTrendsAutomotiveITServicesIndustry:CompetitiveProfilesAutomotiveITServicesMarket:BearingPointAlliancesSourcesandContactBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPExecutive SummaryAutomakersarecurrentlyfacedwithslowersales,overcapacityanddeclinesinprofitability.Big3arelosingmarketsharetoJapaneseautomakers.T
3、oyota,HondaandNissanincreasedtheirU.S.salesandmarketshareinthefirsthalfof2003,whiletheBigThreemanufacturers(GM,Ford,DaimlerChrysler)sawtheirsalesdeclinedespitespendingheavilyonincentives.Currentlytheglobalautomotiveindustryhastoomuchcapacity(roughly30%)andassalesfall,theproblemcontinues.Carpriceshav
4、ebeenfallingmakingalreadythinmarginsevenmorepressured.Theglobalautomotiveindustryisfacedwithmorecompetition,greaterpricetransparency,risingcustomerexpectationsandqualityimprovements,makingthepressureevengreateronpriceandprofitability.Chinapresentsthebestopportunityforautomakersduetoincreasedgovernme
5、ntincentivesandcooperation,cheaperlabor,andproximitytoalargepopulationofpotentialconsumers.Chinacontinuestomakeprogresstowardsamarketeconomywhichhasledtoglobalbusinesses,likeautomotivecompanies,tryingtorampupinordertotapintothecountryslargemarketplaceof1.3Bconsumers.AyearafterentryintotheWTO,in2003,
6、Chinasautomotiveindustryproduced3.25Mmotorvehicleunits(38%growthcomparedtotheyearbefore).ITIssues:Industryinsurvivalmode,pressuringspending;OpportunitiesforCRMn Mostmanufacturingverticals,includingAutomotive,havebeenoperatingin“survivalmode”,spendingverylittleoncapitalandoperationalexpenses;ITspendi
7、nghassufferedasaresult.TheNorthAmericanmanufacturingmarketconstitutesapproximately45%ofthetotalworldmanufacturingITspend.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPExecutive Summaryn CurrentlyintheautomotiveindustrythereislesssignificanceplacedontheroleofITinsupportingbusinessstrategies,especiallyincomparisontoindu
8、strieslikeFinancialServicesorHealthcarepayerindustries.ThisisalargedeterminantofITbudget.n Inordertounderstandtheirnear-termsalesvolume,optionmixandpricesensitivity,automakershavetostartunderstandingtheircustomersbetterthroughthemanysignalstheyseefromtheirconsumersinteractions.Muchofthiscanbeaccompl
9、ishedthroughCRMinitiatives.n Whiledealerincentiveshavebeenusedbymostofthemajorautomakers,especiallyintheUS,companiesleveragingtheirexistingCRMmightbeabletogetmoreforless.Thedatagatheredfromincentiveprogramsflowingbacktomanufacturersanddealerscanallowfollow-upcampaignsthatbridgethegapbetweensalesandm
10、arketing.n ERPvendorsareturningtheirfocustodeliveringextendedapplicationsinareasofSCM,CRMandPLMtocompensateforthelossofrevenuefromlarge-scaleprojects.CompetitorsandAlliancesn DeloitteConsultinghasajointinitiativewithSAPtosupporttheautomotiveindustryinthedeploymentofthemySAPAutomotivesolutiononaworld
11、widebasis.Aspartofthisinitiative,DCandSAParedevelopingmethodsforcustomer-specificanalysisonfeasibility,cost-benefit,andROI.n IBMencouragestheirengineerstorotateinandoutofthefield,spendingtimesolvingreal-lifeproblemswhilenotabandoningtheirinsideresearch.IBMhascreatedaninnovationservicesgroupwithinits
12、researchunitdedicatedtoworkingonautomotivecustomerproblems,makingthemcapableoftakingtheirresearchandapplyittobusinessissues.n IntheEuropeanautomotiveindustry,SAPiscurrentlyfocusingoncrossfunctionalprocesses,packagingtheirSCM,PLMandCRMallinone,usingdifferentmodules,approachingitfromtheperspectiveofth
13、ebusinessprocessesthatcrosstheseareas.Global Automotive Industry:Business ChallengesBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPGlobal Automotive Industry is on a Gradual SlideTheworldsautomotiveindustryhasbeenonagradualdownwardslideoverthepastyear,acceleratedtosomedegreebythelikelihoodofamajorbankruptcyandfurtherre
14、structuringoftheindustry.n Inhibitorsincludeweak(regional)consumerconfidence,highunemploymentanduncertainglobalequitymarkets,allofwhichhaveledtolowersales.n InEurope,thefirstfivemonthsof2003sawsalesdropby4%whilenewregistrationsforMayfellthelowestinfiveyears.TheUSmarketisforecasttoshrink4%thisyear.n
15、Currentlytheglobalautomotiveindustryhastoomuchcapacity(roughly30%)andassalesfall,theproblemcontinues.Muchoftheover-capacityisduetoeachindividualcompanyexpectingtogrowfasterthanitsrivals.Andwhilethe90sshowedstrongreturns,manyautomakersinvestedinadditionalcapacity,createdriskymodels,builtmorefactories
16、andenteredintoemergingmarketsthathadmorelongtermpromisethanshortterm.n Formanyyearsthelargesttruckandcarmakershavecontinuallysustainedlossesoutoftheirprimarybusinessesofcarsales,oftenmakingprofitsthroughmoneymadefromsellingsparepartsatinflatedprices,throughfinancingbusinessesorthroughexchangerates.T
17、hisstructureisincreasinglyexposedinadownturn,especiallywhenincentiveslike0%financinghavehamperedthefinancingbusiness.n Carpriceshavebeenfallingmakingalreadythinmarginsevenmorepressured.Theglobalautomotiveindustryisfacedwithmorecompetition,greaterpricetransparency,risingcustomerexpectationsandquality
18、improvements,makingthepressureevengreateronprice.n IntheUS,incentiveslike0%financingormoneybackhavekeptvolumeupbuthavealsopressuredprices.Whileincentivesareexpensive,wheneverautomakerspushpricesbackuptheirvolumescollapse.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPGlobal Automotive Industry is on a Gradual Slide Asi
19、defromproductissues,TheBig3haveunder-fundedpensionliabilitiesandhealth-carebenefitsforretirees.Fordislosingcashandtheirbondshavebeendowngradedtojunkstatus.IftheUSmarketcontinuestoslidealarge-scalecompetitiverestructuringcouldoccur.Europeancarmakers,likeFiat,whichisladenwithdebtandproductionissues,co
20、uldbepurchasedbyothercompanieslikeGM(thatowns20%),oreventuallybeboughtoutbythestate.TheindustryupsidesfortheBig3:GeneralMotorswillcontinuetopursueitsgrowthstrategiesinordertoremaincompetitive.DaimlerChryslersisinthemidstofitsimprovedcoststructure,allowingittobettercompetewithGM.Fordisspendingalotofm
21、oneyoncapitalexpenditures.Ifthecompanydoesnotexecute,itmaybeincrisis.TheBig3productshavehigherqualitythanever,althoughtheperceptionofqualityisnotashighasitshouldbe.Company Pension HealthcareGeneralMotors$19,300$51,000Ford$7,300$22,741DaimlerChrysler 3,100 12,113Pension and healthcare source:MSDW,Bas
22、ed on Mmgt.DiscussionsTotalUSPensionFundandHealthcareLiability(inMM)BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPUS Automotive Market:Slowing,but Still the LargestTheUSautoindustryisthemostimportantonetotheglobalindustrysincetherewere16.7MregistrationsintheUnitedStatesin2002(downbymorethan3%fromthealltimehighin2000).
23、TheUSmarketforlighttrucksandSUVs(8.6Mregistrationsin2002)surpassedthecarmarketin2002(8.1Mregistrations).n ThelowlevelofUSfueltaxesboostedSUVsalesfarmorethaninanyothercountry,althoughrisingoilpricesandenvironmentallegislationcouldreducesales.n In2002,roughlyone-fifthofthecars,lighttrucksandSUVsregist
24、eredintheUnitedStateswereforeign.Californiahasthehighestrateofpassengercarpurchases,accountingforroughly13%ofthetotal.n TheUSindustry,regardlessofitshighnumbers,iscurrentlysaturated.Thestockofpassengercarsperheadwastheninthlargestintheworldin2002.Withnearly500carsper1000ofthepopulation,theUShasmorec
25、arsperheadthantheUnitedKingdom,butslightlyfewerthanItalyandGermany.n CarusageisextremelyhighintheUnitedStatesoverothercountriesintheworld.TheaveragepersonintheUnitedStatestravelsabout9,000kmperyear,comparedto6,000kminWesternEuropeand4,000kminJapan.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPBig 3 Continue to Lose Ma
26、rket Share to JapanAstheautomotiveindustrygetsmorecompetitive,AmericanconsumersarebuyingmoreJapaneseautomobilesduetotheirreputationforqualityandvalue.Toyota,HondaandNissanincreasedtheirU.S.salesandmarketshareinthefirsthalfof2003,whiletheBigThreemanufacturers(GM,Ford,DaimlerChrysler)sawtheirsalesdecl
27、inedespitespendingheavilyonincentives.Thistrendstartedin1998,whendomesticmanufacturersstartedtolosenearly10pointsofshare,andtheJapanesegainednearly5.Industry-wide,carandlight-trucksalesweredown2.5%throughJune,to8.2M.However,thethreebiggestJapanesemanufacturerssold100,000morevehicles,andthedomesticBi
28、gThreesold200,000fewer.MarketshareforallJapanesebrandsisatanall-timehighof28.5%,anddomesticbrandshaveshrunktoahistoriclowof60.5%.TheeconomicdownturnhasfavoredautomakerslikeToyotasinceconsumershavebecomemorestingyanddiscriminatingwiththeirpurchases,thusfavoringqualityandvalue,whicharethemajorsellingp
29、ointsformostJapaneseautomakers(versus,forexample,luxuryautos).TheJapanesecontinuetograbbiggerchunksofthemarketdespiterecordspendingonincentivesbytheirdomesticrivals.AtthebeginningofJune,incentivesforChrysler,FordandGMaveraged$3,389pervehicle,versus$1,062forJapanesebrands.Koreanmakesaveraged$1,371and
30、Europeanbrandsaveraged$1,945.USCar/TruckShare1996vs.2003Source:The Economist,June 2003BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPBig 3 Continue to Lose Market Share to Japan TheBig3sincentives(14%ofsaleprices)arelikelyunsustainable.TheirdependenceonincreasinglylargeincentivestooffsetthelowerresalevalueofUScarsrefle
31、ctsperceivedproblemswiththeirlong-termqualityanddurability.Forexample,ToyotaandGMcarscanbevirtuallyidentical(sometimesmadeonthesameassemblylineaspartofaGM-Toyotajointventure),butbecauseGMsellsintheused-carmarketfor15-20%lessthanToyota,2GMroutinelyofferspurchaseincentivesof$1,000acar,fourtimesmoretha
32、nToyotasgivebacks.3 TheBig3continuetoconcentratetheirtestingeffortsonthedefectratesofproductcomponents.However,thisfocusdoesntincreasethelikelihoodofproducingamoreappealingcar.FortheBig3,testsratethecarscomponentsbutwithlessemphasisontheperformanceoftheentirecarasmeasuredbythedesiredattributes(sucha
33、squietness).Conversely,Japaneseautomakersareparticularlyeffectiveattestingfortheattributesthatexcitetheirtargetcustomers.TheHondaCivic,forexample,istestedextensivelyforthreekeyattributes:fuelefficiency,initialproductquality,anddurability.Theresultingvehicleismorethanacollectionofdefect-freesubsystem
34、s;itisacarthatperformswellintheareasthatcustomershavecometoexpectfromHonda.TheupsidefordomesticautomakersisthatitisdoubtfultheJapanesecancontinueincreasingtheirshareatthesamepace.FewersegmentsareleftfortheJapanesetoinvade.TheToyotadivision,forexample,offersafulllineofvehiclescomparabletoFordorChevro
35、let,andithasarangeofmodelsintheLexusluxurydivisionthatincludessedans,SUVs,andsportscars.ProfitabilityisalsopressuredattheBig3comparedtoAsianmanufacturers.Forexample,Hondaaverages$1,581inprofitpervehicle(soldintheUS)andToyotagets$1,214.GeneralMotors,however,earnsonly$701whileChryslerGroupmakesonly$22
36、6.Fordlosesanaverageof$114oneachvehiclesoldlastyear.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPGlobal Automotive Industry:Market Share by RevenueTheglobalautomotiveindustryishighlyconcentratedwhilemarketshareisshifting.n DaimlerChrysler,FordMotor,andGeneralMotorsmakeup44%oftotalglobalsales.However,thisisonepercentl
37、essthanlastyear,indicatingtheBig3slossofmarketsharetosmallercompetitors.n WhileToyotahasgreatlyincreaseditsmarketshareintheUS,thecompanyhasalsolostapercentageofmarketsharesincelastyear.n ImportstoNorthAmericaarethehighesttheyvebeensincethelate80s.OfparticularconcerntoAmericanmanufacturers,lighttruck
38、sales,oncethemajorprofitgenerator,arelosingsharetoforeigncompetitorslikeToyotaandNissan.Source:Standard And Poors,2003BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPIndustry Profitability Severely PressuredThelargeautomakershavebeenfightingthedownturnandtryingtosustainsaleswithlargerebatesandeasycreditintheUSandincreas
39、inglyinEurope.However,thesestrategieshaveseriouslypressuredprofits.DaimlerChryslerreportedinJuly2003thatnetincomefellworsethanithassincetheindustryslastpoorearningsperiodinlate2001.Mitsubishipromotedeasycredit,includingloansthatdeferredpaymentsforayeartoconsumerswithweakcreditbuthaverecentlyrescinde
40、dthispromotionduetoprofiterosion.PSAsprofitwashitmostlyduetotheriseoftheEuro,especiallyagainsttheBritishPoundandBrazilianReal,Brazilbeingwhereithasoneplant.Someautomakersareattributingthisspanofpoorearningstothebottomofthecurrentcycleofslowdown,howevermanyarestillseekingstructuralimprovementsandbett
41、erpricingpowertobufferthiscycle.Company EarningsStatus IssuesGeneralMotorsOperatingprofitfell87%,AnnouncedearningsAugust8,2003IntenseUSpricewarseverelypressuredprofitsDaimlerChryslerSecondquarter2003operatingprofitfell62%Chryslerlosses,USpricewar,MercedessalesslackingRenault Operatingprofitfell588mi
42、llion.Lastreported7/24/03Globalsalesdecline(4.5%)infirsthalf;adversecurrencymovesPSAPuegotCitreonOperatingprofitsinautodivisiondown27%infirsthalf2003Strongeuro,weakFrenchdemandVolkswagen 400millionoffitspretaxprofit,announcedMay2003Foreign-exchangemoves,weakEuropeansalesMitsubishi Forecasting$674Mne
43、tlossasofJuly2003USsalesdown20%in6mos.April;anticipates$420MchargeforbadcarloansFord 96%dropinoperatingprofitinmidJulyannouncements$525MlossatFordofEurope,USpricewarSource:Wall Street Journal,Earnings ReportsBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPAutomakers Still Poor at Aligning Supply and DemandProfitsinthegl
44、obalautoindustryaresufferingsinceOEMscannotaligntheirsupplywithconsumerdemand.Whileconsumerdemanddataisreadilyavailable,carmakersfollowlaggingindicatorsandtheresultisineffectiveadvertisingandrebatesandinventoryoverstocks.Thecurrentmethodsthatautomakersusetosatisfydemandareoutofalignment.n Inrecordsa
45、lesyears(suchas2001),profitsintheautomobileindustryaveragedamere1.2%andonlythreecompaniesBMW,HondaandMagnaInternational-had5%profit.n Forecastsoftenmissactualdemand.Forexample,demandforDaimlersPTCruiserfarexceededsupplywhenitcameonthemarket.ThenDCXrampedupcapacityto230Kunits,makingitordinaryandbuyer
46、smovedon.Rightnowthefactoryisdiscountingthemodel,furthererodingthemodelsimage.n Suppliersarehurtbyvariation.WhenanOEMplansincorrectlyonaparticularplatformvolume,ofabout10-15%,thefactoryhastoraiseorlowervolumesuddenly.n In2002saleswerethelowestinfouryears,leavingvehicleinventoryat70days.Seventydaysof
47、inventorycanmean$40Bincapitalsittingonlots.MeanwhiledealersandOEMsspend$3Band$11B,respectively,everyyearonadvertisements.n Theloopfromproductionplanningtomanufacturetosaleandbacktakesupto6months,whichistoolongtofixoverproductionofanunpopularconfigurationortoinformsuppliersofsurgesindemand.Withalaggi
48、ngmarket,intensecompetitionandmorerapidlyshiftingconsumertastes,thispooralignmenthasbeenmoreobviousintheindustrythanever.n Automakersarestillapplyinglastyearssalesresultstothecurrentyearspre-plannedvolumewithoutconsiderationofhowmanydaysittooktosellspecificvehicles.BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPUS Auto
49、motive Distribution:Inefficient NetworkDealersaccountfornearlyallUScarandcommercial-vehiclesales,butthesenetworksareincreasinglyinefficient.Automotivecompanieshavenotbeenabletorelocateorshutdownpoorperformersduetostatelaws.However,itispossibletoreshapedealernetworksbyorchestratingaseriesofownershipc
50、hanges,encouragingweakperformerstoexitthemarket,helpingtopperformerstoexpand,andencouragingdealerstoimprovesalesskills.Giventightprofitmargins,manufacturerscandefinitelyusetheextraprofitthatamoreefficientdistributionsystemcoulddeliver.U.Sdealernetworkswerebuiltinanincrementalanduncoordinatedwayovers