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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件Its hard to believe that its less than a year since theextraordinary moment when the finance,the credit,whichdrives our economies froze.很难相信那个特殊时刻已过去将近一年 当时驱动经济的金融，信贷都停滞了。00:13A massive cardiac arrest.就像一次严重心脏骤停般的影响。00:21The effect,the payback,perhaps,for years of vampirepredators like
2、Bernie Madoff,whom we saw earlier.它也许是对像伯纳德?麦道夫，我们刚才看到的，这样的多年的 吸血鬼的惩罚。00:24Abuse of steroids,binging and so on.还有滥用类固醇，狂欢作乐，等等。00:30And its only a few months since governments injectedenormous sums of money to try and keep the whole systemafloat.政府投入巨额资金试图维持 整个系统，至今才短短几个月。00:33And were now in a very
3、 strange,sort of twilight zone whereno one quite knows whats worked,or what doesnt.我们现在正处在一个很奇怪的有点模糊的地带，没有人确切知道什么有效，什么没有。00:41We dont have any very clear maps,any compass to guide us.我们没有任何清晰的地图，或是指南针来指引我们。00:47We dont know which experts to believe anymore.我们不知道再去相信哪些专家。00:52What Im going to try and
4、 do is to give some pointers towhat I think is the landscape on the other side of the crisis,what things we should be looking out for and how we canactually use the crisis.我想尝试和做的是，给危机另一面上的景观画一些指示箭头，有哪些事我们应该注意 还有我们如何真正利用这次危机。00:55cardiac:n.强心剂;强胃剂/adj.心脏的;心脏病的;贲门的 vampire:n.吸血鬼;脊椎吸血蝙蝠 predators:动捕食者
5、/动食肉动物(predator的复数)steroids:n.生化类固醇(steroid的复数形式);甾体 binging:n.粘合;夹锯;包边/v.狂欢;沉溺(binge的ing形式)injected:充血的/注入的 sums:n.算术题;数总数(sum的复数形式)/vt.概括;计算的总和(sum的三单形式)/vi.共计(sum的三单形式)afloat:adj.在海上的;飘浮的;浸满水的;在传播的/adv.在海上;飘浮著;浸满水 twilight:n.黎明,黄昏;薄暮;衰退期;朦胧状态/adj.昏暗的,微明的;暮年的 pointers:n.仪指针;指标(pointer的复数);指极星There
6、s a definition of leadership which says,is the ability touse the smallest possible crisis for the biggest possibleeffect.有一个关于领导才能的定义是这么说的，“它是利用最小危机 来达到最大效果的能力01:07And I want to talk about how we ensure that this crisis,whichis by no means small,really is used to the full.我就是想谈一下我们如何确保 这次决不小的危机能真正被充
7、分利用。01:15I want to start just by saying a bit about where Im comingfrom.我想先稍微谈谈我自己的经历01:22Ive got a very confused background which perhaps makesme appropriate for confused times.我有非常混乱的经历 这也有可能使我比较适合混乱的时代01:25Ive got a Ph.D.in telecoms,as you can see.我是电信博士，你们可以看到。01:32I trained briefly as a Buddhis
8、t monk under this guy.我曾经短期师从此人，作一个佛教徒01:35Ive been a civil servant,and Ive been in charge of policy forthis guy as well.我曾经是一名公务员 也曾为这个人出谋划策，01:38But what I want to talk about begins when I was at this city,this university,as a student.但我想从我在这个城市，这所大学，作为一个学生开始说起。01:43And then as now,it was a beauti
9、ful place of balls and punts,beautiful people,many of whom took to heart RonaldReagans comment that,even if they say hard work doesntdo you any harm,why risk it?和现在一样，当时这也是一个美丽的地方，有球类运动，划船，有美丽的人，他们很多人真心相信里根总统的这句话 尽管他们说努力工作并不会害了你，但为什么要冒这个险？01:48by no means:决不 to the full:充分地;完全地 telecoms:n.电信(telecom
10、的复数形式);电信学 as you can see:正如你所看到的;你是知道的 briefly:adv.短暂地;简略地;暂时地 monk:n.僧侣,修道士;和尚 in charge of:负责;主管But when I was here,a lot of my fellow teenagers were in avery different situation,leaving school at a time then ofrapidly growing youth unemployment,and essentiallyhitting a brick wall in terms of the
11、ir opportunities.但我在这里的时候，我的许多青少年伙伴处在非常不一样的形势下，他们在年轻人失业飙升的时候毕业离开了学校，在就业机会上他们等于撞上了南墙。02:03And I spent quite a lot of time with them rather than in我没有去划船，而是花了大量时间和他们在一起02:17TED演讲者：Geoff Mulgan|杰夫.摩根演讲标题：Geoff Mulgan:Post-crash,investing in a better world|经济崩溃之后，投资一个更好的世界内容概要：Geoff Mulgan is director o
12、f the Young Foundation,a center for social innovation,social enterprise and public policy that pioneers ideas in fields such as aging,education andpoverty reduction.He.s the founder of the think-tank Demos,and the author of The Art ofPublic Strategy.当我们重启世界经济之时，Geoff Mulgan提出了这样一个问题:除了给那些天数已尽的老行业提供紧
13、急经济援助，我们为什么不把这些激励资金给一些新兴的有社会责任感的公司，让他们能够自力更生-从而使世界变得美好一点?And I spent quite a lot of time with them rather than inpunts.02:17And they were people who were not short of wit,or grace orenergy,but they had no hope,no jobs,no prospects.他们不是缺少智慧，风度或是活力，可他们没有希望，没有工作，没有前途。02:21And when people arent allowed
14、to be useful,they soon thinkthat theyre useless.当人们不被允许有用时，很快他们就会认为自己是无用的。02:29And although that was great for the music business at thetime,it wasnt much good for anything else.尽管当时这种情况对音乐产业很不错，但对任何其他行业来说并不太好02:34And ever since then,Ive wondered why it is that capitalism isso amazingly efficient at
15、 some things,but so inefficient atothers,why its so innovative in some ways and souninnovative in others.从那时起，我就在考虑，为什么资本主义 对某些事情极其有效，但是对另一些事情却并不这么有效呢？又为什么它在某些方面很创新，但在另些方面却没有呢？02:39Now,since that time,weve actually been through anextraordinary boom,the longest boom ever in the history ofthis country
16、.那段时间以后，我们事实上经历了一段特殊的繁荣时期，这个国家有史以来最长的繁荣时期02:51at a time:一次;每次;在某时 in terms of:依据;按照;在方面;以措词 prospects:n.前景;预期;潜在顾客;远景展望inefficient:adj.无效率的,效率低的;无能的 innovative:adj.革新的，创新的Unprecedented wealth and prosperity,but that growthhasnt always delivered what we needed.史无前例的富裕和繁荣 但是这种增长并没有一直带来我们所需要的03:00H.L.M
17、encken once said that,to every complex problem,there is a simple solution and its wrong.门肯曾经说过，“每一个复杂的问题，都有一个简单的解“，但这是错的。03:06But Im not saying growth is wrong,but its very strikingthroughout the years of growth,many things didnt getbetter.我并不是说增长是错误的，但是值得注意的是经过这么多年的增长，许多事情并没有好转。03:13Rates of depres
18、sion carried on up,right across the Westernworld.在整个西方世界，抑郁症的比例在不断上升。03:20If you look at America,the proportion of Americans with noone to talk to about important things went up from a tenthto a quarter.看一下美国，美国人中 无人可以谈心的人口比例从十分之一增长到了四分之一03:24We commuted longer to work,but as you can see from thisgr
19、aph,the longer you commute the less happy youre likelyto be.我们花更多时间在上下班的路上，但从这个图中你会看到，在路上花的时间越长，你就有可能越不快乐03:31And it became ever clearer that economic growth doesntautomatically translate into social growth,or human growth.更清晰的一点是经济进步 并不能自动转化为社会进步或者人类进步。03:38Were now at another moment when another w
20、ave ofteenagers are entering a cruel job market.我们现在正处在另一个时刻、又一拨青少年正在进入这个残酷的就业市场03:46Unprecedented:adj.空前的;无前例的 depression:n.沮丧;洼地;不景气;忧愁 commuted:vt.减刑;交换;用交换;使变成/vi.通勤;代偿/n.通勤(口语)commute:vt.减刑;交换;用交换;使变成/vi.通勤;代偿/n.通勤(口语)automatically:adv.自动地;机械地;无意识地/adj.不经思索的There will be a million unemployed yo
21、ung people here bythe end of the year.到今年底，这里会有一百万的 年轻失业人口。03:53Thousands losing their jobs everyday in America.而在美国每天都有数千人失去他们的工作03:57Weve got to do whatever we can to help them,but wevealso got to ask,I think,a more profound question of whetherwe use this crisis to jump forward我们必须极尽所能去帮助他们 但我们也必须
22、问这样一个问题，我想，一个更深刻的问题 我们是否能利用这次危机向前跳跃04:00to a different kind of economy thats more suited to humanneeds,to a better balance of economy and society.到一个不同的，更适合人类需要的经济制度，达到经济和社会的更和谐状态。04:09And I think one of the lessons of history is that even thedeepest crises can be moments of opportunity.我认为历史的重要一课就是
23、，即使最深的危机也能带来机遇04:17They bring ideas from the margins into the mainstream.它们把边缘的想法带入主流04:24They often lead to the acceleration of much needed reforms.他们往往加速了急需的改革04:27And you saw that in the Thirties,when the Great Depressionpaved the way for Bretton Woods,welfare states and so on.你们看到这在三十年代发生过，当时的经济
24、大萧条 为布雷顿森林，福利国家等铺平了道路。04:31unemployed:adj.失业的;未被利用的 suited:adj.合适的/v.适合(suit的过去分词)crises:n.危机,紧要关头;危险期(crisis的复数形式)mainstream:n.主流 lead to:导致;通向 acceleration:n.加速,促进;物加速度 Thirties:n.三十年代/num.三十/adj.三十个的 paved:铺砌面And I think you can see around us now,some of the greenshoots of a very different kind o
25、f economy and capitalismwhich could grow.你们也可以看到现在在我们周围 一种完全不同的经济制度和资本主义已萌生出绿芽 并可能生长04:41You can see it in daily life.你们在日常生活中就能发现这些。04:48When times are hard,people have to do things forthemselves,and right across the world,Oxford,Omaha,Omsk,you can see an extraordinary explosion of urban当时势艰难，人们不得不
26、为自己做点什么 在全世界，从牛津，奥马哈到鄂木斯克，你们会发现城市化务农的激增 人们借用土地，借用房顶 把游艇变作临时农场。04:50Omsk,you can see an extraordinary explosion of urbanfarming,people taking over land,taking over roofs,turningbarges into temporary farms.变作临时农场。04:50And Im a very small part of this.我本人也是其中之一。05:04I have 60,000 of these things in my
27、garden.在我的花园里我养了六万只这个家伙。05:06A few of these.This is Atilla the hen.还有一些这个。这是母鸡Atilla。05:09And Im a very small part of a very large movement,which forsome people is about survival,but is also about values,abouta different kind of economy,which isnt so much aboutconsumption and credit,but about things
28、 which matter tous.我只是这巨大运动的一小份子，对某些人来说是为了生存 但同时它也涉及到价值观，涉及到不同类型的经济，它并不是那么关系到消费和信用 而是关系到对我们真正重要的事。05:12And everywhere too you can see a proliferation of timebanks and parallel currencies,people using smarttechnologies to link up all the resources freed up by themarket,people,buildings,land and linki
29、ng them to whoeverhas got the most compelling needs.到处你们可以看到时间银行 和并行货币的激增，人们运用高科技联系起 各种被市场，人，楼房和土地解放的资源 把它们和有最强烈需求的人联系起来。05:26barges:n.船驳船(barge的复数)/v.猛撞;用驳船运载(barge的第三人称单数)proliferation:n.增殖,扩散;分芽繁殖currencies:n.货币;货币流通(currency的复数)link up:会合;连接;联系 freed:adj.释放的/v.使自由;解放(free的过去分词)compelling:adj.引人注
30、目的;强制的;激发兴趣的/v.强迫;以强力获得(compel的ing形式)www.XiYuS锡育软件Theres a similar story,I think,for governments.这里有个类似的故事，关于政府的，05:42Ronald Reagan,again,said the two funniest sentences in theEnglish language are,Im from the government.And Imhere to help.又是里根总统，他说在英语里 最滑稽的两句话是，“我是政府的。我来这儿帮助你们。”05:45But I think last
31、 year when governments did step in,peoplewere quite glad that they were there,that they did act.不过去年当政府真的介入，人们还是很高兴有政府在，并且他们有所行动。05:54But now,a few months on,however good politicians are atswallowing frogs without pulling a face,as someone onceput it,they cant hide their uncertainty.但是现在，几个月后，再好的政治家
32、都像在活吞青蛙 还不能拉着脸，像某些人形容的那样，他们隐藏不了心中的无把握。05:59Because its already clear how much of the enormous amountof money they put into the economy,really went to fixing thepast,bailing out the banks,the car companies,not preparingus for the future.因为已经很明显 他们投入到经济中的大量资金，无论多少 都只是在修补过去，帮助那些银行和汽车公司脱离困境，而不是为将来做好准备。0
33、6:08How much of the money is going into concrete and boostingconsumption,not into solving the really profound problemswe have to solve.到底有多少钱投入到了具体的消费增长中，而不是用来去解决我们必须解决的真正严重的问题06:21And everywhere,as people think about unprecedented sumswhich are being spent of our money and our childrensmoney,now,in
34、 the depth of this crisis,theyre asking:到处，当人们想到那些空前的巨额资金 那些被花掉的我们的钱，我们孩子的钱 现在，在这个危机深处，他们在问：06:29step in:介入;插手干预;作短时间的非正式访问 swallowing:n.生理吞咽/v.吞下;忍受(swallow的ing形式)frogs:n.青蛙(frog的复数形式)uncertainty:n.不确定,不可靠 bailing:n.排水;提捞 boosting:n.助推,局部通风;升压加力/v.推进(boost的现在分词形式)Surely,we should be using with a lo
35、nger term vision toaccelerate the shift to a green economy,to prepare for aging,to deal with some of the inequalities想必，我们应该用更长远的眼光 来加速朝绿色经济的转变 来为衰老做好准备，来对付有些不平等06:37which scar countries like this and the United States ratherthan just giving the money to the incumbents?这些不平等给这个国家还有美国留下了伤疤 而不只是把钱都给现任
36、者?06:46Surely,we should be giving the money to entrepreneurs,tocivil society,for people able to create the new,not to the big,well-connected companies,big,clunky governmentprograms.想必，我们应该把钱给企业家，给公民社会 使人们能够创新 而不是把钱给大的，关系好的公司，和庞大的笨重的政府项目。06:53And,after all this,the great Chinese sage Lao Tzu said,Gov
37、erning a great country is like cooking a small fish.总而言之，中国伟大的哲人老子说过，“治大国如烹小鲜。07:04Dont overdo it.不要做过头。07:11And I think more and more people are also asking:Whyboost consumption,rather than change what we consume?我觉得越来越多人还在问：为什么刺激消费，而不是改变一下我们所消费的？07:14Like the mayor of S?o Paulo whos banned adverti
38、singbillboards,or the many cities like San Francisco putting ininfrastructures for electric cars.就像圣保罗的市长，他取缔了广告牌 还有许多其他城市，像旧金山 进行了电动汽车基础设施的建设07:20inequalities:n.数不等式;不均等,不平衡;不平坦(inequality的复数形式)scar:vt.伤害;给留下伤痕/vi.结疤;痊愈/n.创伤;伤痕incumbents:在位者(incumbent的名词复数)entrepreneurs:n.企业家(entrepreneur的复数)well-c
39、onnected:adj.有好亲戚的;出身名门的;血统关系好的;精心构思的 clunky:adj.沉重的;影响不好的 sage:n.圣人;贤人;哲人/adj.明智的;贤明的;审慎的 Governing:adj.有统治,控制或治理权力的/v.统治(govern的ing形式);支配 overdo:vt.把做得过分;使过于疲劳;对表演过火;夸张/vi.做得过分;表演过火 billboards:n.经广告牌,户外看板(billboard复数)infrastructures:n.建基础设施;下部构造;基本建设(infrastructure的复数)You can see a bit of the same
40、 thing happening in thebusiness world.你能看到在商业社会里零星的同样的事情在发生07:29Some,I think some of the bankers who have appear to havelearned nothing and forgotten nothing.有一些，我觉得有一些银行家 好像什么都没有学到，也什么都没忘掉07:35But ask yourselves:What will be the biggest sectors of theeconomy in 10,20,30 years time?It wont be the on
41、es liningup for handouts like cars and aerospace and so on.但是问一下你们自己：经济中最大的领域将会是什么 在10，20，30年后？不会是排队等着领救济品的行业 比如汽车，航空航天工业，等等。07:40The biggest sector,by far,will be health-already 18percent of the American economy,predicted to grow to 30even 40 percent by mid-century.最大的领域，从目前来看，会是健康-已占美国经济的百分之十八 预计到
42、本世纪中会增长到百分之三十，甚至四十。07:49Elder care,child care,already much bigger employers thancars.老年人护理，儿童护理已经比汽车行业多雇佣很多人07:59Education,six,seven,eight percent of the economy andgrowing.教育，占经济的百分之六，七，八，会持续增长08:03Environmental services,energy services,the myriad of greenjobs,theyre all pointing to a very differen
43、t kind of economywhich isnt just about products,but is using distributednetworks环境服务，能源服务，各式各样的绿色工作 它们都指向了一个非常不同的经济形式 这种经济形式不只是关于产品，而是要利用分散式网络08:07bankers:金融银行家 sectors:n.部门;分区;扇区数(sector的复数)/v.把划成扇形;把分成部分(sector的三单形式)lining:n.衬里;内层;衬套 handouts:n.讲义;宣传册子,宣传品(handout的复数形式)aerospace:n.航空宇宙;航航空航天空间pred
44、icted:adj.预测的/v.预计(predict的过去分词);预示 Elder:n.老人;长辈;年长者;父辈/adj.年长的;年龄较大的;资格老的myriad:adj.无数的;种种的/n.无数,极大数量;无数的人或物and its founded above all on care,on relationships,on whatpeople do to other people,often one to one,rather thansimply selling them a product.并且它首先是建立在关怀和关系之上 建立在人们对他人的服务之上，而且经常是一对一的服务 而不是简单
45、的卖给他们商品08:19And I think that what connects the challenge for civil society,the challenge for governments and the challenge forbusiness now is in a way a very simple one,but quite adifficult one.还有，我认为，现在把对公民社会的挑战 对政府的挑战和对商业的挑战联系起来的 是从某方面来说非常简单的，但也是非常困难的一种东西。08:31We know our societies have to radical
46、ly change.我们知道我们的社会必须从根本上改变08:41We know we cant go back to where we were before thecrisis.我们知道我们不能再回到危机之前08:45But we also know its only through experiment that welldiscover exactly how to run a low carbon city,how to care fora much older population,how to deal with drug addictionand so on.但同时我们也知道只有
47、通过实验 我们才会发现怎样运行一个低碳的城市，怎样照料更大的老龄化人口，怎样解决吸毒问题，等等。08:49And heres the problem.这里还有个问题。09:03In science,we do experiments systematically.在科学领域，我们系统的做实验09:05Our societies now spend two,three,four percent of GDP toinvest systematically in new discovery,in science,intechnology,to fuel the pipeline of brilli
48、ant inventions whichilluminate gatherings like this.我们的社会现在会花GDP的百分之二，三，四 系统地投资新发现，投资科学和技术 为杰出发明的输油管道加油 照亮像我们这样的聚会09:08above all:首先;尤其是 in a way:在某种程度上;有点儿;十分激动 radically:adv.根本上；彻底地；以激进的方式systematically:adv.有系统地;有组织地 inventions:n.专利发明(invention的复数);创意曲 illuminate:vt.阐明,说明;照亮;使灿烂;用灯装饰/vi.照亮 gatherin
49、gs:n.聚会(gathering的复数)Its not that our scientists are necessarily much smarter thanthey were a hundred years ago,maybe they are,but theyhave a hell of a lot more backing than they ever did.并不是我们的科学家一定 比一百年前的更加聪明，他们也许是的，但他们以前从没有过这么多的支持09:22And whats striking though,is that in society theres almostnoth
50、ing comparable,no comparable investment,nosystematic experiment in the things capitalism isnt verygood at,like compassion,or empathy,or relationships,orcare.不过打击人的是，在社会里我们几乎没什么可以拿来比较的，没有可比较的投资，在资本主义不擅长事情上，比如热情，或者同情，或者关心，或者关怀上没有过系统的实验。09:31Now,I didnt really understand that until I met this guy whowa