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1、EIA Drilling Productivity Report-US Energy Information：环境影响评价钻井生产报告-美国能源信息 Still waters run deep.流静水深流静水深,人静心深人静心深 Where there is life,there is hope。有生命必有希望。有生命必有希望The U.S.has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources AdamSieminski,EIADrillin
2、gProductivityReportOctober29,20132shale and tight oil productionmillion barrels per daydry shale gas productionbillion cubic feet per dayNote:DryshalegasproductiondataarebasedonLCIEnergyInsightgrosswithdrawalestimatesasofJune2013,convertedtodryproductionestimateswithEIA-calculatedaveragegross-to-dry
3、shrinkagefactorsbystateand/orshaleplay.Source:EIAbasedonDrillingInfoandLCIEnergyInsight Key insights on drilling productivity and production trends Higher drilling efficiency and new well productivity,rather than an increase in the rig count,have been the main drivers of recent production growthIn t
4、he six plays considered,steep legacy production decline rates offset new well production by 69%for oil and 73%for natural gasUnderstanding the positive and negative forces that affect production volumes in a given region allows the estimation of the number of rigs required to make up for the natural
5、 loss of production from existing wellsConsidering new and existing wells separately helps to highlight plays where the growing number of relatively new wells leads to large monthly declines in legacy production,putting more pressure on increasing production from new wells in order to keep net outpu
6、t risingAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,201334AdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,2013A little drilling historyRig counts and natural gas production appeared to be coupled during 2006 and 2007rig countU.S.natural gas production billion cubic feetSource:BakerHugh
7、es,Inc.rigcount,EIAShort-TermEnergyOutlook5gas productionnatural gas rotary rigsAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,2013Before 2006,changes in natural gas rig counts did not suggest subsequent changes in production rig countU.S.natural gas production billion cubic feet Source:BakerH
8、ughes,Inc.rigcount,EIAShort-TermEnergyOutlook6gas productionnatural gas rotary rigsAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,2013Gas-directed rig counts no longer serve as a useful metric for natural gas production levelsrig countU.S.natural gas production billion cubic feetSource:BakerHu
9、ghes,Inc.rigcount,EIAShort-TermEnergyOutlook7gas productionnatural gas rotary rigsAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,2013Rig counts,either gas-directed or total,no longer serve as a useful metric for natural gas production levelsoil and natural gas rig count and natural gas product
10、ionU.S.rig countbillion cubic feet per day Source:BakerHughes,Inc.rigcount,EIAShort-TermEnergyOutlook8natural gas productionAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,2013Rig counts,either oil-directed or total,are no longer an adequate indicator for oil production,which has continued to r
11、ise in 2013 despite a leveling of rig countsrig countU.S.crude oil production million barrels per daySource:BakerHughes,Inc.rigcount,EIAShort-TermEnergyOutlook9oil production(right axis)AdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,2013Oil and natural gas are increasingly developed from the s
12、ame wellsshare of new wells by type of hydrocarbons produced Source:EIAanalysisofdatafromDrillingInfo,Inc.10AdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,2013In 2011 and 2012,more than half of all new wells produced both oil and natural gas11count of new wells by production typeSource:EIAanal
13、ysisofdatafromDrillingInfo,Inc.AdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,2013Natural gas producers adapt their formation in line with market valueEagle Ford new well gas/oil production ratioMcf/bbl12AdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,2013Source:EIADrillingProductivityRep
14、ort,EIAShortTermEnergyOutlooknatural gas pricedollars per million Btuproduction ratio Mcf/bbl(left axis)EIAs Drilling Productivity Report(DPR)uses a series of new metrics to assess the production and depletion trends of oil and natural gas wells Rig countWell classificationDrilling efficiencyProduct
15、ivity of new wellsProduction and depletion trendsAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,201313Drilling efficiency can be used to relate the number of rigs to production from new wellsAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,201314Source:EIADrillingProductivityReportEagle Fo
16、rd drilling efficiencywells per rig per monthEagle Fordfirst full months production per wellBbl/dayMcf/daySix key plays account for nearly all recent growth in productionAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,201315Source:EIADrillingProductivityReportDPR methodologyMonthly additions fr
17、om one average rig Represents EIAs estimate of an average rigs contribution to production of oil and natural gas from new wellsNew-well oil/gas production per rig Represents historical estimated monthly additions from one average rig coupled with the number of total drilling rigs as reported by Bake
18、r HughesLegacy oil and natural gas production change Represents EIAs estimates of total oil and gas production changes from all the wells other than the new wells;the trend is dominated by the well depletion ratesProjected change in monthly oil/gas productionRepresents the combined effects of new-we
19、ll production and changes to legacy productionOil/gas production Represents oil and natural gas production from both new and legacy wells since 2007,based on all wells reported to state oil and gas agenciesAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,201316Rigs needed to sustain production i
20、n the Eagle Ford playAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,201317Source:EIADrillingProductivityReportEagle Ford rigs needed to sustain prior months production Rigs needed to sustain production in the Bakken playAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,201318Source:EIADrill
21、ingProductivityReportBakkenrigs needed to sustain prior months production DPR fills in missing data due to lags in state reportingoil production in 6 key playsmillion barrels per dayAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,201319May-13 Oct-13Aug-13Source:EIAanalysisofDrillinginfodata20Ad
22、amSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,2013Backup slidesAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,201321DPRBakken pageDPR methodology:step 1 monthly additions from one rigAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,201322Source:EIADrillingProductivityReportMonthly add
23、itions from one average rig:Monthly additions from one average rig represent EIAs estimate of an average rigs contribution to production of oil and natural gas from new wells.The estimation of new-well production per rig uses several months of recent historical data on total production from new well
24、s for each field divided by the regions monthly rig count,lagged by two months.Current-and next-month values are listed on the top header.BakkenMarcellusOctober2013drillingdatathroughSeptember,projectedproductionthroughNovemberDPR methodology:step 2 rig counts and production per rigAdamSieminski,EIA
25、DrillingProductivityReportOctober29,201323Source:EIADrillingProductivityReportNew-well oil/gas production per rig:The charts present historical estimated monthly additions from one average rig coupled with the number of total drilling rigs reported by Baker Hughes.DPR methodology:step 3 legacy produ
26、ction declineAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,201324Source:EIADrillingProductivityReportMonthly additions from one average rig:The charts present EIAs estimates of total oil and gas production changes from all the wells other than the new wells.The trend is dominated by the well
27、depletion rates,but other circumstances can influence the direction of the change.For example,well freeze-offs or hurricanes can cause production to significantly decline in any given month,resulting in a production increase the next month when production simply returns to normal levels.DPR methodol
28、ogy:step 4 production changeAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,201325Source:EIADrillingProductivityReportMonthly additions from one average rig:The charts present the combined effects of new-well production and changes to legacy production.Total new-well production is offset by the
29、 anticipated change in legacy production to derive the net change in production.The estimated change in production does not reflect external circumstances that can affect the actual rates,such as infrastructure constraints,bad weather,or shut-ins based on environmental or economic issues.DPR methodo
30、logy:step 5 total productionAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,201326Source:EIADrillingProductivityReportOil/gas production:These charts present oil and natural gas production from both new and legacy wells since 2007.This production is based on all wells reported to the state oil
31、and gas agencies.Where state data are not immediately available,EIA estimates the production based on estimated changes in new-well oil/gas production and the corresponding legacy change.For more informationAdamSieminski,EIADrillingProductivityReportOctober29,2013U.S.Energy Information Administratio
32、n home page|www.eia.govDrilling Productivity Report|http:/www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling Annual Energy Outlook|www.eia.gov/aeoShort-Term Energy Outlook|www.eia.gov/steoInternational Energy Outlook|www.eia.gov/ieoMonthly Energy Review|www.eia.gov/merToday in Energy|www.eia.gov/todayinenergyState Energy Portal|http:/www.eia.gov/state27