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1、IntermediateMacroeconomics91TheOpenEconomynWhydocountriestradewitheachother?“Nonationwaseverruinedbytrade.”-BenjaminFranklinMorevarieties;higherquality;cheaperprice2TheOpenEconomynMerchandisetradeasa%ofGDP(2005)Merchandise Trade(%of GDP)High income43.6Upper middle income66.7Middle income62.2Lower mi
2、ddle income58.8Low income41.13TheOpenEconomyArgentinaChinaEthiopiaFranceGermanyHong KongIndiaMexicoU.KU.S.Merchandise Trade(%of GDP)37.563.844.945.362.7333.728.25840.121.24TheOpenEconomynTheinternationalflowsofcapital&goodsnFactorsaffectingCA(savingsandinvestment)nExchangeratesnFactorsaffectingex-ra
3、te5InternationalFlowsofK&GoodsnCapitalaccount¤taccount6InternationalFlowsofK&Goods(I-S)+NX=0orKA+CA=0NXTB=CA(S-I)NFI=-KA7InternationalFlowsofK&GoodsSI=NX(-KA=CA)IfSI0(KA0;TB0;CA0;KA08InternationalFlowsofK&Goodsn经常项目顺差：既定时期，一国居民向外国居民的贷出大于借入，从而对外净资产增加。n：本国的净对外资产余额n因此，t时点一国净对外资产余额是过去经常项目盈余或赤字的结果。
4、9n投资于本国：In或净对外投资：InternationalFlowsofK&Goods10InternationalFlowsofK&GoodsnNX=CA=-KA?我们借来的钱是否可以全被用于购买别国的商品服务?外国人借的人民币是否可全被用于购买我国的商品服务?nNo！Wepay/earninterestif(SI)011InternationalFlowsofK&Goodsn通常情况下,相对于贸易余额,国外的净要素支付很小。因此,经常项目余额和贸易余额几乎相等。nMankiw的假设CA=TB=-KA正是基于此12InternationalFlowsofK&Goodsn经常项目包括：贸易余
5、额利息/股息其他商品劳务和收入（旅游，工人汇款）单边转让官方转让其他13InternationalFlowsofK&Goodsn经常项目余额部分构成（2005年）（亿美元）中国美国日本巴西商品贸易590-6，6201，321337服务贸易-97450-379-48要素收入-36-241857-205数据来源：IMF2006报告14InternationalFlowsofK&Goodsn2005 China CA:USD 160.8 billion 数据来源：中国外汇管理局15InternationalFlowsofK&Goods项项 目目差额差额一一.经常项目经常项目1608.1831608.
6、183A.A.货物和服务货物和服务1247.9771247.977 a.a.货物货物1341.8911341.891 b.b.服务服务-93.9139-93.9139 B.B.收益收益106.3514106.3514 1.1.职工报酬职工报酬15.1964815.19648 2.2.投资收益投资收益91.1549191.15491 C.C.经常转移经常转移253.8547253.8547 1.1.各级政府各级政府-1.76234-1.76234 2.2.其它部门其它部门255.617255.61716InternationalFlowsofK&Goods项项 目目差额差额 b.b.服务服务-9
7、3.9139-93.9139 1.1.运输运输-130.21-130.21 2.2.旅游旅游75.369375.3693 3.3.通讯服务通讯服务-1.18173-1.18173 4.4.建筑服务建筑服务9.735679.73567 5.5.保险服务保险服务-66.5014-66.5014 6.6.金融服务金融服务-0.14244-0.14244 7.7.计算机和信息服务计算机和信息服务2.176762.17676 8.8.专有权利使用费和特许费专有权利使用费和特许费-51.6385-51.6385 9.9.咨询咨询-8.61408-8.61408 10.10.广告、宣传广告、宣传3.6052
8、13.60521 11.11.电影、音像电影、音像-0.20096-0.20096 12.12.其它商业服务其它商业服务74.9702974.97029 13.13.别处未提及的政府服务别处未提及的政府服务-1.28175-1.2817517OtherInterpretationsn如何评价CA0(SI0)？是好是坏？(SI)0国外比国内更好的投资机会？量入为出的自律？18两期国家跨时预算约束C1Q1TB赤字C1GDP的6024FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomynWhatmakesacountry“small”?-thescaleoftheeconomyis
9、sosmallthatitcannotaffecttheworldpricelevelnPricetaker-takeworldrealinterestrate25FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomyn nr=r*nDomestic&foreignbondsareperfectsubstitutesnCapitalisperfectlymobile26FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomynModel27FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomy1.Worldreali-rateandCAKA=-CA
10、=ISrr*S,ICAISCA(r*)28FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomyInrtendston$flowsintillr=r*nNFInCArS,IISEr*S=IIS=SCA=0CA0nShocktoinvestment(betterinfrastructure)29FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomyYnS=(YCG)nrtendston$flowsintillr=r*nNFInCArS,IISEr*nHurricane(temporaryshocktoproduction)S=I,CA=0SI=ICA030Fact
11、orsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomyAsYconsistently,CnSwouldnotasmuchAlso,Also,investmentmayrS,IISEr*nTechnologicalimprovement(permanentshocktoproduction)temp.shock31FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomynTemporarytradesanctiononIraqTemporaryshocktoTermsofTrade(TOT)toChinaTOTCwouldnotmuchnSnrtendston$flowso
12、uttillr=r*nNFInCArS,IISESI=ICA032FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomynAlargeportionofoilfieldsinIraqweredestroyedduringthewaronTerrorismTOTpermanentlypeoplewouldadjusttheirCnSwouldnotdecreaseasmuch(orevengoesbacktoitsinitiallevel)nCAdeficitmaydisappearfinally33FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomynFina
13、ncingfortemporaryshocks,adjustingforpersistent(permanent)shocks-IMFCompensatoryFinancingFacility(CFF)Acountrycouldaskforloanswhenitsincomefromexportsisinsufficientandtheinsufficientistemporary.34FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomynInfluenceofhomeexpansionaryfiscalpoliciesGorTnSnIunchangedn(S-I)nNFI&
14、NX(CA0)rS,IISEIS=SCAICA037LargeCountrynCanbeconsideredasthecasebetweenSOEandclosedeconomynr*willbepartiallydriventowardthedirectionthatrchanges38LargeCountrynE.g.Drought(temporaryproductionshock)YnSnrtendston$flowsin(NFI)nr*nCA,butsmallerthanSOErS,IISESI=ICA0SSIICA039LargeCountrynGorT(TwindeficitintheU.S.)40S&IShocks资本自由流动的小国封闭经济资本自由流动的大国SICAr*-CAr*-CA-rCA-rCAr，r*CAr，r*41