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1、Intermediate Macroeconomics91The Open EconomynWhy do countries trade with each other?“No nation was ever ruined by trade.” - Benjamin FranklinMore varieties; higher quality; cheaper price2The Open EconomynMerchandise trade as a % of GDP (2005)Merchandise Trade (% of GDP)High income43.6Upper middle i
2、ncome66.7Middle income62.23The Open EconomyArgentinaChinaEthiopiaFranceGermanyHong KongIndiaMexicoU.KU.S.Merchandise Trade (% of GDP)37.563.844.945.362.7333.728.25840.121.24The Open EconomynThe international flows of capital & goodsnFactors affecting CA (savings and investment)nExchange ratesnFactor
3、s affecting ex-rate 5International Flows of K & GoodsnCapital account & current accountNXGICY0NXIGCY0NXISNXIS6International Flows of K & Goods(I-S)+NX=0orKA+CA=0NXTB = CA(S-I)NFI = - KA 7International Flows of K & GoodsS I = NX (- KA = CA) If S I 0 (KA 0; TB0; CA0; KA08International Flows of K & Goo
4、dsn经常项目顺差：既定时期，一国居民向外国居民的贷出大于借入，从而对外净资产增加。n ：本国的净对外资产余额n因此，t时点一国净对外资产余额是过去经常项目盈余或赤字的结果。 *012ttBBCACACA*B*1*BBISCA9n投资于本国：In或净对外投资：*1()BB*1()SIBBInternational Flows of K & Goods10International Flows of K & GoodsnNX = CA = -KA?我们借来的钱是否可以全被用于购买别国的商品服务? 外国人借的人民币是否可全被用于购买我国的商品服务?nNo！We pay/earn interest
5、if (S I) 011International Flows of K & Goodsn通常情况下,相对于贸易余额,国外的净要素支付很小。因此,经常项目余额和贸易余额几乎相等。nMankiw的假设CA = TB = -KA正是基于此*1rBTBCA12International Flows of K & Goodsn经常项目包括：贸易余额利息/股息其他商品劳务和收入（旅游，工人汇款）单边转让官方转让其他13International Flows of K & Goodsn经常项目余额部分构成 （2005年）（亿美元）中国美国日本巴西商品贸易590-6，6201，321337服务贸易-9745
6、0-379-48要素收入-36-241857-205数据来源：IMF2006报告14International Flows of K & Goodsn2005 China CA : USD 160.8 billion 数据来源：中国外汇管理局15International Flows of K & Goods项项 目目差额差额一一. .经常项目经常项目1608.1831608.183 A.A.货物和服务货物和服务1247.9771247.977 a.a.货物货物1341.8911341.891 b.b.服务服务-93.9139-93.9139 B.B.收益收益106.3514106.3514
7、1.1.职工报酬职工报酬15.1964815.19648 2.2.投资收益投资收益91.1549191.15491 C.C.经常转移经常转移253.8547253.8547 1.1.各级政府各级政府-1.76234-1.76234 2.2.其它部门其它部门255.617255.61716International Flows of K & Goods项项 目目差额差额 b.b.服务服务-93.9139-93.9139 1.1.运输运输-130.21-130.21 2.2.旅游旅游75.369375.3693 3.3.通讯服务通讯服务-1.18173-1.18173 4.4.建筑服务建筑服务9.
8、735679.73567 5.5.保险服务保险服务-66.5014-66.5014 6.6.金融服务金融服务-0.14244-0.14244 7.7.计算机和信息服务计算机和信息服务2.176762.17676 8.8.专有权利使用费和特许费专有权利使用费和特许费-51.6385-51.6385 9.9.咨询咨询-8.61408-8.61408 10.10.广告、宣传广告、宣传3.605213.60521 11.11.电影、音像电影、音像-0.20096-0.20096 12.12.其它商业服务其它商业服务74.9702974.97029 13. 13. 别处未提及的政府服务别处未提及的政府服
9、务-1.28175-1.2817517Other Interpretationsn如何评价CA 0 (S I 0)？ 是好是坏？(S I) 0 国外比国内更好的投资机会？量入为出的自律？18两期国家跨时预算约束 22,C Q11,C Q1Q2QC1Q1TB赤字C1GDP的6024Factors affecting CA- Small Open EconomynWhat makes a country “small”?- the scale of the economy is so small that it cannot affect the world price levelnPrice t
10、aker - world real interest rate 25Factors affecting CA- Small Open EconomynDomestic & foreign bonds are perfect substitutesnCapital is perfectly mobile26Factors affecting CA- Small Open EconomynModelISNFINX*)()(rIGTYCYNX27Factors affecting CA- Small Open Economy1.World real i-rate and CAKA = - CA =
11、I S rr*S, ICAISCA( r* )28Factors affecting CA- Small Open EconomyI nr tends to n$ flows in till r = r*nNFI nCA rS, IISEr*S=IIS=SCA=0CA0n Shock to investment (better infrastructure)29Factors affecting CA- Small Open EconomyY nS = (Y C G) nr tends to n$ flows in till r = r*nNFI nCA rS, IISEr*n Hurrica
12、ne (temporary shock to production)S=I, CA=0SI=ICA030Factors affecting CA- Small Open EconomyAs Y consistently , C nS would not as much investment may rS, IISEr*n Technological improvement(permanent shock to production)temp. shock31Factors affecting CA- Small Open EconomynTemporary trade sanction on
13、IraqTemporary shock to Terms of Trade (TOT) to ChinaTOT C would not muchnS nr tends to n$ flows out till r = r*nNFI nCA rS, IISESI=ICA032Factors affecting CA- Small Open EconomynA large portion of oil fields in Iraq were destroyed during the war on TerrorismTOT permanentlypeople would adjust their C
14、nS would not decrease as much (or even goes back to its initial level) nCA deficit may disappear finally33Factors affecting CA- Small Open EconomynFinancing for temporary shocks, adjusting for persistent (permanent) shocks- IMF Compensatory Financing Facility (CFF)A country could ask for loans when
15、its income from exports is insufficient and the insufficient is temporary.34Factors affecting CA- Small Open EconomynInfluence of home expansionary fiscal policies Gor TnSnI unchangedn(S-I )nNFI & NX (CA0)rS, IISEIS=SCAICA037Large CountrynCan be considered as the case between SOE and closed economyn
16、r* will be partially driven toward the direction that r changes38Large CountrynE.g. Drought (temporary production shock)Y nS nr tends ton$ flows in (NFI )nr* nCA , but smaller than SOErS, IISESI=ICA0SSIICA039Large CountrynG or T (Twin deficit in the U.S.)40S & I Shocks资本自由流动的小国封闭经济资本自由流动的大国SICA r* -CA r* -CA -r CA -r CA r ，r* CA r ，r* 41