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1、Tab_e of coHentsTHE FUTURE OF THE AUTOZDUSTRY3SMART moblhy-NTEL 匚 GENCE 4AUTONOMOUS DR_V_NG W_LL SHAPE THE FUTURE 5SENSZG AND DATA -NPUTI THE HARDWARE6MOST BRANDS ARE MOV-NG TO LEVEL 3 7ASOFTWARTDEF_NED ERA 一。GLOBALACCELERATON ON ELECTR-FOATON12KEY D-SCUSS-ON ON D-FFERENT MARKETS 1 3THE FA_RYTALE OF
2、 H_GH VAiToN15 一INVESTMENT SUGGESTONS 18Dongfeng Mosr Group (00489 HK) 19Nexieer(01316 HK) 22Great wa= Mosr02333 HK) 2510 December 2020Automobiles & Components Sector 汽车及零部件行业Sector ReportOTA upda一es are an essenHa-feature _O enabCDseKIdrMng and cormec_ed Cary which w 三-ead -0 new business mode-s-i
3、-s expec-ed -ha- more and more conrlec-ed veh-c-es w=- be so-d -rl 一he fu-ure According to FuiureBr一dg9 an -ndeperldeniresearch company3 they expec 二 hai by 20303 over 98% of veh-c-es so-d w三 be connected car” vace generaCDd by nexigenera-5n cars w三 be comp-e-e-y d-fferenifrom ihe current ones whh s
4、ofiware and conteHto represeni 58%077% of a ca-s va-ue (m Terms of pr-ceL To OEMS revenue stream w三 a-so change accord-ng-y For examp-e3 Tes-a w三 charge exira or -ts FSD which enab-es smart features -nc-ud-ng -Nav-gaie on Auop-ot- of which ihe cost has gradua=y increased from us$5ooo -n 2016ous$looo
5、o -n 2020, Meanwh-pBMW has startedoo一 out updates to -ts opera-ng sysCDm -n Oct. 202P a-ow-ng driversopurchase or subscribeonew funct-ona-一 iy at any i-me af-er purchasing ihe vehopThe change to be-ng more software based a=ows OEMs to siart new revenue sireams just -ke app stores of App-e and Googpa
6、 sign m caHe-emeH of iher ecosystem-3,5%85,90%Hardware So 二 ware conQnt10 December 2020Source一 FutureBridge- Guofai Junari nemat-onaLSourc 尖 FutureBridge. Guofai Jurian5-temaHona-.An eff-ciesEmarchiteaure 一 s crHca- to va=dae high -eve- au-onomous d3.ng-n the fu-urw automotive Em architecture w三 be
7、s-mp-三ed and cons。-一dated- The overa= -rend w三 be iransformed from a decenira=zed arch-teciure or d-sir-buted architectureourrem-y the 3rd generat-onL which has numerous separate ECUs (10。to 120 Ecusor comp-ex vehoes) towards more centra=zed sysiems W5ded-caied domain functions (4 -h genera- on)3 co
8、nta-n-ng 35 cen-ra- Dcus u_t-mate-y3 the f-na- move -sobu=d a v-rtua- or coudbased doma-nor constant connectiv一 ty (55generat-onL see F-gure14 beow as the d 一 ffereHTypes of E/E arch-tecere Fu=y and neaTc=y autonomous dr-v-ng w=- require centra-一 zed ho-si-c dec-s-on makingonav 一 gate rea-t-me traff
9、ic s-cat 一。ns According to a MCK-nsey report DCUs have become a prerequisite for ADAS Leve- 3 vehoes and abovebecause ihe comp-ex 一-y 0 fmli m PQseparate ECUs -n an ADAS Leve- 3 sysCDm wou-d be too h_gh The chase on Tes-a is heating up s-nce Tes-叱 s Mode- 3 has been ava-ab-eopreorder -n 209 the mode
10、- was updatedoa doma-n ceHra-一 zed arch 一CDciurpN-kke- Business pub=caons has comeothe conc-us-on thai Tes-a -s 6 years ahead of Toyota and vo-kswagen after a teardown of Tes-a.s newest arch_teccre During the =202。Software Defined veh-c-e ForurrT he-d -n shangha-n JuL 202PMCK-nsey a-so -mp-ed a s-m-
11、ar siatement by doubting wheiher any new Emarch-iecture deve-oped by iradmOna- OEMs cou-d catch up with ihe iechno-ogy Tes-a current-y has 0n ihe Mode- 3 Nonethe-esw we be=eve 一二s st三 one of the biggest areas of deve-opmesgiven the i-me and cost eff-c-ency expected and the scope and f-ex-b三 ty -t ca
12、n provide when progressing 一。softwaredef-ned vehoes and higher -eve- ADAS-Figure4: D 三 ereaTypes of E/E Arch 一一ecEreAutomobiles & Components Sector 汽车及零部件行业DistributedVehicle centra-izedDoma-ncemra-ized Independen- ECUsI boHedenc-ionsI Each funco-n has Ns ECUconnection)Source- McKinsey report.I elab
13、oration of ECUs WRhsone domain I Domass- bodyooa.ort-chassis- powertrain- and=0-a_ nmem 3,4 -aependeanetworks I communicata-n betw een domainsI Stronger COHaboratbn via cen-ra- gatew ay I crossjunctlonai connectionI Azityohand - e conplexcnc6-ns-e.g: adaps-e cruise controI ceHra- domain cglrojerI Ab
14、syohandle morecorrprox func5-ns I consoaatsn of functions (cos-oHmzaBn)centra-tewaYI v-nua一 domainI L一iTMed ded-ceed HWI Ethernei backboneI Comptexcncs-ns-high performance corrvuB-gSector ReportGLOBAL ACCELERATON oz ELECTRmoAToNEurope fas- acce-era 一一 on of NEV adopHon- Among the four forces- eQctr
15、mcation growth has more certainty due to its estab-一shed techno-ogy and being w-de-y recognized as a new type of power source，wh=e China has been the -argest NEV (mc-ud-ng both e-ectr-c vehoesmv) and pcg.n hybrids (PHEV) marketor many year? Europe has been very strong since 2019】 surpassing China S
16、become -he -argest NEV markei-n 1H2Ppart-y due s ihe pandempChina vehoe and NEV sa-es pcngep-buithe strong -rend 5 Europe cannot be 一 gnored which has been -arge-y pushed by s-rsregu-at - on requ-r- ng new car sa-esohave CO2 em-ss 一 on -m-ted -0 95g/km which 一 s a-so around - he targe- China se-or 2
17、。25 For Ch-na3 sa-es has been very f-uccai-ng -n the past few yea。due to changes -n subs-d-ew par5-u-ar-y w-th ihe -as 二 wo updaies which saw sign 言 ani decrease -n subs-d 一 es by 5。 or above ch-na.s am-onobe -he iop NEV powerhouse has nachanged】 W5deveopments -n NEVsobe one of the key agendas .3 ih
18、e country.s straieg-c p-apComparedoEurope and ch-s US performance has been re-at-ve-y stabpwhich -arge-yo-ows the coun-ry-s overa= vehoe sa-esEU27ce_aa Norway and ihe UK 535 3.6% 81.6% 414 7.5% 57.。Source 二 memat5na_ counc= onQean Transportawom German Nat5na_ p-atform emobmty. M=T.Figure5: Average C
19、arbon D-ox-de Em-ss5ns and Targe-S10 December 2020201 6 ,2017 ,2018 .2019 .2020 -2021 -2022 -2023 -2024 -2025 -2026 - ccc cSource 二 mernat5na_ Counc/7 ofQean Transportation (-CCT)- Guoiai Junan mtemationaLWe expeafaaadopt 一 on of NEVs - n 一 he three -arges 一 marks, We be=eve the.regu-at-om iechnoogy
20、s charging -nfrastructure and new mode-s are the four key dr-v-ng forces-1) RegEa 一一 on The push -n regu-ai-on w三 be one of ihe dr-v-ng forces that spurs NEV adopi-opThere are some common oo-s used by govemments -nc-udmg 1) prov-d-ng subsidies ands-x -ncent-ves3 which shou-d be the most commono gene
21、rate -ns-ani-mpacL 2) CO2 em-ss 5n requirement and/orfue- eff-c-ency requ-remen 一 which shou-d a=gn W5counilys reduction 5 greenhouse gas targets。We have seen t-ghten-ng targei of CO2 emission and mcreas-ng effo-ency requ-rementor new car sa-es 5 These three major markeiw which shou-d guide OEMsopro
22、duce more e-ear-c vehoes- 2) Bat-ery 一echnoogy Battery 箔 chno-ogy -s more than readyosee much fasier adopi 一 on ihan the past 5 yeas Tbchno-ogy - mprovement has come -n a -arge part through 1) battery dr-v-ng range - mprovement dr 一 ven by betCDr batCDry dens 一 tyaverage dr:ng range -s - mprovmgywhi
23、ch 一 s one of the top concernsor many NEV buyers; and 2) m price has become econom 一 ca=y more comparabQio an -nCDma- combust 一 on eng-ne (OE) vehoe，Bai-ery price - s one key driver behind ihe decreasing NEV pricey W5-th-um.on baitery price having dropped by a CAGR o 二 8.7% during 220o201P from arou
24、nd 1000 kwh/kg -n 20*100156 kwh/kg-n 20193 according to B-oombeaNew Energy Finance (BNEFL -t -s expecod io fu=her droposo kwh/kg 5 2025 Moreover; new manufaccr-ngQchn-ques and new pack design w三 a-s。 keep prices fa=ng Th-S has a-ready been w-sessed .5 BYD.S b-ade baitery and Coniemporary Amperex Tec
25、hnoogy CO.3 See fhe -as一 page for disc-aimer Page 12 of 29Automobiles & Components Sector 汽车及零部件行业Sector Report匚 m-tecrsOATL) ce=iopack techno-ogy-3) Charging -nfras-ruc-ure I Creating convenience 一s -mporianiomcrease NEV adopi-om referenc-ng Norway which has aboui 4。% NEV penetra一一om ihe current -h
26、e highest -n the wor-d- Norway shows -hat a sirong suppor-ve charging network 一 s one。二 he faciors 5 一 is fast NEV adopi-on-n part-cu-ar，he govemmeaof Norway has ensured fast charging siaHons -rl highways (every 50km) and provided subsidies -n both pub=c and pr-vae domainsoacceerate -nsia-at-ork We
27、be=eve ihai the _ack of chaa-ng posts 一 s one factor ihat has dragged NEV penetrat 一 OF and a shift -n subsidy focus w三 sure-y hep Chinaogrow fast -n ihe next five yeas4) New mode-s I -t 一s expected ihai there w三 be 450 to 500 new modes -aunch-ng through 2022“ according to -Hs Mark一t and BNEF We be=
28、eve the more NEV mode-s -rl -he marked the more awareness created. This wou-d mean thai more demand w三 be created when more produas are ava-ab-e and when NEVs become ma-nsiream vehoe Norma=y OEMs can craft NEVs through -he-r ex-sung p-atormo-m-i capita- -nvestmenL However cha=enges arise whentechno-
29、ogy requ-rements increase。To overcome th-ss a ded-caied m p-aiorm -s becoming commonor OEMS which enab-es beiier packaging of ner-or cab-n spacppower e-ectron-css moo0 and ba$y packsKEY D_SCUSSON ON DmFERENT MARKETSEach market 一 s op 一一 mNng their po=2.es _0 accommodae higher conceHraon of NEVS, ch-
30、npihe US and Europe have iher own set of po=c一esosupportihe deve-opmeHof NEV and Europe -s the mosi aggressive -n Terms of CO2 em-ss - on Targets which 一 s driving the fastesi adoption of NEVS，Meanwh-pihe US -Ong re=ed on 一 is Corporate Average File- Economy (CAFE) po=c - es- wh 一 ch has been updaCD
31、d io SAFE but has -oweredce- economy targeis from 54 mpgo40 mpg The adopt一on of NEVs w三 rey on the adopUon of ca-一fom一a-s ZeroEm一ssion Veh一c-e (ZEV) Program ch-np where po=c-es are s-m-ar t。the us with the dua- credit schemeo-ows the CAFE and ZEV programs，China has opt-m-zed the-r major NEV po=c-es
32、5 202Pand a new -andscape shou-d be deve-op-ng 5 2021 onwards Further discuss 一 on by reg 一 on -s asO-OWS-Europe is -n an env-ronmen- of high subs-d-es and SM2.supervision Europe has 一 he str 一 ctesi CO2 emission requirement among major reg 一 ons requ m ng CO2 emissions io be reducedo95 g/km by 2021
33、3 a -eve 二 hat cannot be achieved byOE veh一c-es a-one. The -atest standard was promu-gaied on Apr一一 17 2019 and the target was updated to 808g/km and 594g/km by 2025 and 203Prespect-ve-y Furiher) Europe adopted a muchougher testing requ - remenL -nstead of using -he OS standard-s New European Drivin
34、g cyc-e (NEDC) iest methoda the EU w=adopt ihe wor-dw 一 de Harmon 一 zed L-ght veh-c-es Test Procedure (WLTP) ies- method 5 sep2019 WLTP has a str-cieriest-ng cyc-e and on averag9 the emission -eve- 一 s about 21% higher (-eougher) than -he respective NEDC va-uep according toOCH-n terms of subs-dyj Eu
35、rope 一 s more generous -n genera-3 and 一 s one ofihe key cata-ysts that drives NEV sa-ess w-h Germany- France and Sweden a= updating to -he new subsidy scheme The subsidy and other tax beness are given d-rea-yoihe consumer; which 一 s d-fferenifrom ch-3 -n term s of pena-v Europe has ihe h-ghesL w 一
36、ih the new siandaacharging EUR95 per excess em-ss-o?Figure6: WLTP t。NEDC R2.5S by manEaaurersNissanPSA-OpelBMWVW GroupToyota- MazdaVolvoFordFCARenau ItDaimlerKiaHyundaiEm-ssionSourc印 EEA. Guota- Junan -ntematonaLFigure7: Average CO2 Em-ss-ons from New PassengerCars in Europeg/km 20。， 1 80 一 60， 140，
37、 一 20， so .8。 6。10 December 2020Automobiles & Components Sector 汽车及零部件行业Source 二 CCT. GUOS-J Junan -niernafona-.Sector ReportSee the -ast pageor disc-aimerPage 13 0f 29CHIZASW5changes -n po=2.esoguide zm adoption in 2020，Fast changing technoogy and the impact from the covo19 pandemic has seen regu-a
38、tors upda5-g a= major NEVre-aied po=c 一 es A-ong w 一-h -hose =sted -n Tab-e?ihe subs 一 dy PO-一 cy and the duo cred 一 i scheme has been opi-m-zed and ex-endedo2022 Further】 manys-es and provinces are very suppori-veo promoie NEVs W5exira subsidies on rep-acemen- purchases and charg 一 ng expenses。Ans.
39、her noi-ceab-e change 一 s that deve-opmeHof charging posts w三 get more support dueoihe -mpota2.ro-e -t has -n sca=ng up the NEV marke-3 and was -abe-ed as one of sevenih new infrastructure deveopments -n ch-na The deve-opment of charging posts -rl the past f 一 ve years has been -agg-ng govemmenitarg
40、eis hereorg subsidies on charging POSTS have been 0 Pt-mN-ng with the -a-est ones being more focused 0ntack=ng 一 is weaknesses。Par5-u-ar-y3 subsidies are -earl-ng towards the operat - on sidpwith Guangdong J-angsuy Be 一5:q Shanghai and Chengdu a= prov-d-ng subs-d-esor charging posi operators as a wa
41、yosupport the-r opera-ons-n part-cu-arj Shanghai has increased the subsidy amouni and cou-d offer upoRMBOoo/kwpthe highest w-th-n major regions。We exPec- a - ess fcctuating grow-h environment，We be=eve ihat po=Qes are more supportive than prev-ous-y expecied. which -s benef-c-a二。NEV deve-opmenL The
42、more siab-e changes w三 a-so trans-ate io more stab-e growth as comparedo f-uccat-ng growth patiern due io po=cy adj ustmen-3 We exPec- tharecovery -n 2H20 w三 extendO1H21 due -o-ow base and growing demandor NEVs which wou-d see sa-es back to growth 5 2021 NEVs w三 be one of -he s-ronges- sectors -n ih
43、e markets which we expect to y-e-d a CAGR of 21= during 229o2025 under base case scenar-pwh=e a bu= case cou-d see CAGR upo28.3% -n the same per - OP-Th-S w三 be much better than ourl 3% CAGR of the overa= aut。markeL As a resu-L we shou-d see fast NEV penetration -n ch-np expect-ngoreach 17.3% 5 2025
44、 -n our base case scenar 一。 Figure8: China zm sa-es Grow-hz!gure19: China zm MarksForeCas-urn-sL40P。1.2000。0000008000。6000。4。-。2000。m MPHEV yoy400%NEV Pene-ra-on (Base case) (RHS)10 December 2020Units80003。630030。4.0。-。20。-。Base Bear Bu=2。201 1 II2012 II2013 II2014I2015I2016I2017I2018I2019II1-10M19I
45、1-10M20201 12012Source: Guotai Junan -ntemat-onaL source。CAAM- Guos-j Junan -ntemationa-.USwh=e there are po=2.es at the Federa 二 eve-5 -he adop 一-on of casoms,ys Nm program w 三 be key for NEV adoption. At the federa 二 eve-3 promotion of new energy vehoes 一 s ma-rl-y based on Three sign 三 cant PO-一
46、c-es 二 ax benefitsSafer Affodab_e Fue-mff-c-e2.(SAFE) and Greenhouse gas (GHG) standards，The p-ugLrl Eocir-C Drive vehoe Cred 一二 RC 30D) a=ows buyers oenjoy a tax subsidy based on the baHery capac 一 ty with a maximum -m-t of $75500 per veh-c-p-t sets a subsidy ex -一 mechanism according to -heoia- sa
47、-es of new energy vehoes by manufacturers- The CAFE was f-rst calr-ed out -n 1 975 -n responseoihe。一- embargo -n *1973- and has been updaied again recesyj sw-oh-ngoa program ca=ed SAFE】 seH-ng 40 mpg as ihe goa-n 2026。but this new target -s -ower comparedoCAFE- GHG ss-ndards are a-so prom2.ed ai the
48、 federa 二 eve 二。 urge auomakers to reduce vehoe greenhouse gas em-ss-on -eve-3 The EPA pub=shes each car company.s annua- GHG report every yea pub=cN-ng each car company.s point” and companies That generate negative points need to purchase GHG pos m ve pointssoffset- On ihe other hand stateeve- support -s a-s。very -mportanL -n add 一