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1、财务报表分析与证券投资Guohua JiangAssociate Professor of AccountingGuanghua School of ManagementPeking University1The Father of Accounting-Luca Pacioli(1445-1517)nHe wrote a famous mathematics booknIn one chapter he invented double-entry accounting systemnHe taught Leonardo Da Vinci perspective and proportiona
2、lity.The knowledge was used to paint“the Last Supper”2n学过财务报表分析课程的请举手3Dow Jones Industrial Average 1930-20024DJIA,NASDAQ 1990-20025Back to Square One:DJIA 1998-20026D or Dot.bomb-NASDAQ 1998-20027The Three Major Stock Exchanges8The Regulator of U.S.Stock MarketnSEC,the Securities and Exchange Commis
3、sionnArthur Levitt,commissioner,1993-2000 in the Clinton administrationnNumbers Game Speech,19989The Current SEC Commissioners 10Who Issue American Accounting Standards?nFASB:Financial Accounting Standards BoardSet up in 1973 to replace Accounting Principle Board(APB)An independent,private organizat
4、ionStandards issued recognized by SECnGAAP:Generally Accepted Accounting Standards7 concept statements(principles)e.g.,No.7(February 2000)Using cash flow information and present value in accounting measurements148 statements of standards(rules)by the year of 2003e.g.,No.1(December 1973)Disclosure of
5、 foreign currency translation information11International Accounting StandardsInternational Accounting Standards Committee(IASC)Based at LondonIndependent and privately fundedMeant to design a set of worldly accepted accounting standardsCommittee serve as an advisory board memberInternational Account
6、ing Standards41 standards up to the year of 2003e.g.,IAS 2.Inventory,January 1,199512“Big Four”International Accounting FirmsnErnst Young(worldwide revenue 2002:$10.1 billions,4.3 billions in the U.S.)nPriceWaterhouseCoopersnDeloitte&TouchenKPMG13中华人民共和国证券监督管理委员会(Chinese Securities Regulatory Commis
7、sion)14Number of Stocks at Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges15Amount of Capital Raised Through Stock Markets16Market Capitalization17Market Size relative to NYSE18Market Performance19Profitability of Chinese Listed Firms:1992-200420ROE21 Stock Market Capitalization/GDP(%)22Share types in ChinaSh
8、aresTradableNon-tradableIndividualForeignLegal personStateA shareB shareH,N,S,Share2324Share Structures of Chinese Listed Companies(December,2001)Non-tradable(0.1 billion shares):State Shares 2410.61 46.20Domestic Legal Person Shares 663.17 12.71Other non-tradable Shares 331.07 6.4%Total non-tradabl
9、e 3404.85 65.25Tradable:A Shares 1318.13 25.26%B Shares 163.09 3.13%H/N and other shares 331.94 6.36%Total Tradable:1813.16 34.75%Total:5218.01 100%25Large Shareholder expropriation of minority shareholders/TunnelingAn Example,Jiang,Lee and Yue,(2005)2627Chinas Stock Market:A ten-year perspectiveFro
10、m zero to an important emerging capital marketFirst developed fast,then became stagnant:Fewer new listingsMarket index downRaises less capitalLess trading activitiesListed companies performed worseOverall Less important in the booming economy!28The Users of financial statementsnEquity investorsnCred
11、itorsnGovernmentnCustomernSuppliersnLabor union29课程结构第一节 会计信息与资本市场介绍第二节 会计报表回顾-资产负债表第三节 会计报表回顾-损益表第四节 会计报表回顾-现金流量表第五节 赢余管理与赢余质量第六节 赢利能力分析第七节 赢利预测第八节 风险分析第九节 证券价值评估30Perspectives of This CoursenA security analysts perspectivenEmphasize two issues:Earnings Management and valuation31Earnings Management
12、:Rao,Teoh,Wong,Review of Accounting Studies,199832Earnings Restatements Min Wu,HKUST333435Widespread Earnings Manipulation(Jiang and Wang 2005)36Accounting-based ValuationnWho are my peers?Earnings multiples,book-value multiples,sales multiplesnEVA,Economic value added,Residual income valuation(RIV)
13、,Edward,Bell,Ohlson Model(EBO)nIn one word,Share value=f(earnings,book value,dividend,cash flow,etc.)37Accounting-based Valuation-2nUltimately,we do valuation to earn higher returns on stock trading.nWe get an intrinsic value number,compare it to prevailing stock price,if our value estimate is highe
14、r than price,we buy;otherwise we sell.nFrankel and Lee,Journal of Finance,1999To get papers mentioned,from a PKU computer,go to or just ask from me.38How Important is Accounting Information?nJanuary 22,2003,after market closed,AT&T(stock symbol T)announced:Revenue for 4th quarter shrank to$9.3 billi
15、on from 10.2 billion in the 4th quarter of previous year Loss from continuing operations widened to$611 million from$216 million.39How Important is Accounting Information?(http:)40How Important is Accounting Information?nIn the weekend before Monday,Feb.3,2003,Mattel(MAT)announced fourth quarter res
16、ults:nRevenue increased from the fourth quarter a year earlier by 6.9%to$1.56 billion.nNet income increased by 35%to$186.1 million.nEarnings per share(EPS)increased to 42 cents from 31 cents.41How Important is Accounting Information?42Value Investing:Warren Buffett()43Investing MottoTwo friends went
17、 hunting in the jungle.All of a sudden,a bear jumped out of nowhere and came after them.A:Run!B:No,it is hopeless,we wont overrun a bear.A:But I do not have to run faster than the bear.I only need to run faster than you!44Questions on stock market?45作业n六人一组n两个作业n每次课上分别布置作业，下次课上交，打印版n注意报告的形象美46作业1：n每
18、组选一家中国上市公司做投资价值分析（非金融类公司）n使用该公司行业平均数据做比较，比如，行业平均利润率；或对比公司数据n使用最新年报n参见所附宇通客车公司分析报告47作业2：nExcel股票定价建模n和本课程一一对应n用不同的spreadsheet录入三大报表（最好有5年的）、发现赢余操纵、进行赢利分析、风险分析、赢利预测、建立价值模型n和作业1使用同一家公司nSpreadsheet之间要相互勾联n今后评估另外一家公司只需要重新录入三大报表即可n作业2的价值评估进入作业1481、有时候读书是一种巧妙地避开思考的方法。2023/3/72023/3/7Tuesday,March 7,20232、阅
19、读一切好书如同和过去最杰出的人谈话。2023/3/72023/3/72023/3/73/7/2023 9:55:29 AM3、越是没有本领的就越加自命不凡。2023/3/72023/3/72023/3/7Mar-2307-Mar-234、越是无能的人，越喜欢挑剔别人的错儿。2023/3/72023/3/72023/3/7Tuesday,March 7,20235、知人者智，自知者明。胜人者有力，自胜者强。2023/3/72023/3/72023/3/72023/3/73/7/20236、意志坚强的人能把世界放在手中像泥块一样任意揉捏。07 三月 20232023/3/72023/3/72023
20、/3/77、最具挑战性的挑战莫过于提升自我。三月 232023/3/72023/3/72023/3/73/7/20238、业余生活要有意义，不要越轨。2023/3/72023/3/707 March 20239、一个人即使已登上顶峰，也仍要自强不息。2023/3/72023/3/72023/3/72023/3/710、你要做多大的事情，就该承受多大的压力。3/7/2023 9:55:29 AM2023/3/707-3月-2311、自己要先看得起自己，别人才会看得起你。3/7/2023 9:55 AM3/7/2023 9:55 AM2023/3/72023/3/712、这一秒不放弃，下一秒就会有希望。07-Mar-2307 March 20232023/3/713、无论才能知识多么卓著，如果缺乏热情，则无异纸上画饼充饥，无补于事。Tuesday,March 7,202307-Mar-232023/3/714、我只是自己不放过自己而已，现在我不会再逼自己眷恋了。2023/3/72023/3/707 March 202309:55谢谢大家谢谢大家