《美债突破1.7还有多大空间.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《美债突破1.7还有多大空间.docx（35页珍藏版）》请在taowenge.com淘文阁网|工程机械CAD图纸|机械工程制图|CAD装配图下载|SolidWorks_CaTia_CAD_UG_PROE_设计图分享下载上搜索。
1、-1.503 招03八个穴人S人6/裨样样裨/衩裨裨裨松裨式式式近期美债利率的快速上行成为全球资本市场关注的焦点因素。截至3月18日，10年 期美债收益率上行突破1.7%的水平，年初至今已经上行了约80bp,远远超过了其他主要 经济体利率的上行幅度。从全年的维度来看，我们认为10年期美债收益率可能保持逐渐 上行的态势，目标点位或在2%附近。美债利率能否继续向上？这一轮美债利率的上行始于市场对通胀上行的担忧以及疫情拐点出现后经济复苏预 期的强化。把10年期美债利率简单的拆分为实际利率和通胀预期来看，去年二季度大宗 商品价格探底后的持续回暖带动通胀预期逐渐升温，年底到年初的这一波商品热潮再一次 催
2、化通胀预期，成为美债利率上行的重要推动力。TIPS反映的实际利率在欧美疫苗接种 范围扩大和疫情拐点之后开始松动，自2月中旬开启一波上行。经济基本面预期的好转是 实际利率上行的主要原因。图1：实际利率和通胀预期近期都在上行通道（）10Y美债OY TIPS 10Y TIPS2.502.001.501.000.500.00-0.50-1.00资料来源：Wind,中信证券研究部经济复苏预期的强化欧美疫情拐点确认，强化了市场对于经济复苏的预期。欧美的工业生产尽管不如国内 修复的那样迅速，但工业产值在去年年底也已大致回归到疫情前水平。当前美国经济还有 待修复的是非制造业和服务消费。消费是美国经济的支柱，美
3、国个人消费支出占GDP的比 例70%左右，其中服务消费支出占比高达GDP的45%,而耐用品消费在正常年份占比不到 10%o所以，虽然耐用品消费呈现高增长态势，但由于涉及到人员聚集和接触的服务消费， 仍然处于负增长状态，因此未来还有较大的修复空间。随着疫苗接种率的不断提升，居民出 行活动逐步恢复，预计接下来一两个季度可能是美国服务消费快速修复的时间窗口，无论是 政府还是市场，近期都开始陆续上调对于2021年美国经济增长的预期。表3：概念板块涨跌幅榜每日涨幅前五板块日涨跌幅（）每bl跌幅刖五板块日涨跌幅（）化妆品4.37流感-2.80纯碱4.26血液制品-2.35C2M3.25央企-2.33仿制药
4、2.89跨境电商-2.32陆股通周增仓前二十2.78MSCI中盘-1.99资料来源：Wind,中信证券研究部I转债市场表4：可转债市场名称收盘价日变化（）中证转债指数369.890.32等权可转债指数1,449.85-0.14可转债预案指数1,206.460.54平均平价99.33-0.01平均转债价格123.40-0.22资料来源:Wind,中信证券研究部表5：可转债个券名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）110031.SH航信转债106.510.051.37110033.SH国贸转债108.70-0.010.52110034.SH九州转债110.501.041.97110038.
5、SH济川转债104.66-0.710.85110041.SH蒙电转债105.660.681.46110043.SH无锡转债124.22-0.048.85110044.SH广电转债231.40-3.9423.74110045.SH海澜转债99.520.030.94113009.SH广汽转债106.20-0.052.90113011.SH光大转债122.410.0112.25113012.SH骆驼转债123.022.4724.56113013.SH国君转债112.210.772.91113014.SH林洋转债101.110.441.58113016.SH小康转债139.69-2.27215.561
6、13017.SH吉视转债95.30-0.260.64113502.SH嘉澳转债111.44-3.9053.72113504.SH艾华转债132.090.220.16113505.SH杭电转债100.51-0.670.69113508.SH新凤转债124.301.398.95113509.SH新泉转债208.70-2.0015.23113516.SH苏农转债107.32-0.130.53名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）123002.SZ国祯转债112.890.121.62123004.SZ铁汉转债101.51-0.751.92123007.SZ道氏转债104.52-0.240.75
7、123010.SZ博世转债100.26-0.540.27123011.SZ德尔转债97.85-1.040.18123012.SZ万顺转债119.30-3.015.04123013.SZ横河转债412.00-1.2053.48123014.SZ凯发转债126.68-1.807.37123015.SZ蓝盾转债239.00-1.8512.54127003.SZ海印转债104.320.130.64127004.SZ模塑转债170.34-2.387.56127005.SZ长证转债115.000.192.28127006.SZ敖东转债100.150.101.76127007.SZ湖广转债99.210.21
8、0.29128012.SZ辉丰转债101.070.000.00128013.SZ洪涛转债105.790.2311.04128014.SZ永东转债103.200.190.43128015.SZ久其转债98.70-0.261.14128017.SZ金禾转债189.832.9525.20128018.SZ时达转债103.270.630.13128021 .SZ兄弟转债109.50-0.780.14128022.SZ众信转债109.14-0.063.13128023.SZ亚太转债96.24-0.160.54128025.SZ特一转债99.870.320.24128026.SZ众兴转债98.110.35
9、1.34128029.SZ太阳转债213.005.97161.28128030.SZ天康转债272.500.151.93128032.SZ双环转债106.541.470.61128033.SZ迪龙转债103.49-0.691.83128034.SZ江银转债106.58-0.690.73128035.SZ大族转债111.841.132.05128036.SZ金农转债130.06-1.706.36128037.SZ岩土转债95.26-0.060.20128039.SZ三力转债105.60-0.940.44128040.SZ华通转债107.20-0.370.30128041.SZ盛路转债301.64
10、-3.3522.74128042.SZ凯中转债100.22-0.030.08128044.SZ岭南转债89.001.371.19128046.SZ利尔转债140.202.178.19128048.SZ张行转债116.030.451.26名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）113519.SH长久转债96.770.020.27110047.SH山鹰转债118.181.194.98128049.SZ华源转债99.610.380.26128050.SZ钧达转债127.10-0.033.06110048.SH福能转债120.110.056.74113524.SH奇精转债101.490.320.
11、46128051.SZ光华转债112.49-1.150.82113525.SH台华转债100.68-0.240.07128052.SZ凯龙转债163.00-5.7918.93123018.SZ溢利转债215.00-4.0258.43113526.SH联泰转债362.680.000.00113527.SH维格转债83.800.920.80128053.SZ尚荣转债119.20-0.586.60113021.SH中信转债105.28-0.065.28113528.SH长城转债97.15-0.390.22128056.SZ今飞转债104.98-1.913.55110051.SH中天转债119.00-
12、0.378.39110052.SH贵广转债98.60-0.240.09128057.SZ博彦转债118.600.041.16110053.SH苏银转债112.92-0.1712.47127011.SZ中鼎转2116.100.090.52110055.SH伊力转债127.801.5720.86123022.SZ长信转债130.42-1.570.58110056.SH亨通转债102.65-0.050.55123023.SZ迪森转债97.200.000.49123024.SZ岱勒转债103.69-0.820.30113530.SH大丰转债98.13-0.290.29123025.SZ精测转债126.
13、10-0.051.66113532.SH海环转债98.48-0.230.36128063.SZ未来转债101.660.650.36128062.SZ亚药转债71.741.052.39113024.SH核建转债103.54-0.360.94127012.SZ招路转债106.30-0.382.22110057.SH现代转债105.780.360.71113534.SH鼎胜转债97.69-0.200.87113025.SH明泰转债181.868.11109.83128064.SZ司尔转债110.02-0.430.28113026.SH核能转债107.791.0811.59110058.SH永鼎转债9
14、7.63-1.371.02128066.SZ亚泰转债97.60-0.490.34名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）127013.SZ创维转债97.28-0.120.49113535.SH大业转债96.30-0.060.25113536.SH三星转债114.80-0.904.68123027.SZ蓝晓转债154.00-0.8737.66113537.SH文灿转债119.81-1.071.14113027.SH华钮转债102.77-0.421.15128069.SZ华森转债99.800.040.29123028.SZ清水转债95.800.010.25128070.SZ智能转债106.0
15、0-3.207.39113541.SH荣晟转债114.780.231.82113542.SH好客转债118.031.761.07113543.SH欧派转债220.505.7038.46123029.SZ英科转债2050.00-0.7356.09128073.SZ哈尔转债101.31-2.198.73123030.SZ九洲转债161.00-0.6258.00128071 .SZ合兴转债107.10-1.010.10128072.SZ翔鹭转债98.200.410.69123031 .SZ晶瑞转债211.18-4.8716.68128074.SZ游族转债95.010.010.40128075.SZ远
16、东转债118.741.571.11113545.SH金能转债216.262.8125.13128076.SZ金轮转债98.33-0.680.37128078.SZ太极转债111.00-0.400.18110059.SH浦发转债102.490.0816.61113546.SH迪贝转债100.10-0.360.41127014.SZ北方转债101.490.180.17128079.SZ英联转债132.00-5.71101.31113548.SH石英转债136.47-4.7129.10123033.SZ金力转债116.140.903.53110060.SH天路转债109.810.260.231230
17、34.SZ通光转债187.00-2.1541.07110061.SH川投转债129.000.925.55123035.SZ利德转债117.07-0.890.63113549.SH白电转债101.35-0.640.58113550.SH常汽转债122.03-0.760.27128081.SZ海亮转债100.70-0.071.77110062.SH烽火转债108.85-0.731.39128083.SZ新北转债102.86-0.350.14110063.SH鹰19转债119.972.505.49128082.SZ华锋转债102.89-0.100.24名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）1
18、13029.SH明阳转债141.362.9613.57128085.SZ鸿达转债97.601.1821.29113557.SH森特转债178.1221.45363.72113559.SH永创转债122.081.7828.43110065.SH淮矿转债123.840.278.67110064.SH建工转债98.400.611.29128087.SZ孚日转债92.001.580.84128091 .SZ新天转债114.500.4334.96113030.SH东风转债104.140.240.28128093.SZ百川转债105.350.252.20123038.SZ联得转债113.81-0.6314
19、.56123039.SZ开润转债108.850.806.60128090.SZ汽模转2108.78-1.242.77127015.SZ希望转债121.10-0.661.79113561.SH正裕转债111.85-0.403.25123042.SZ银河转债134.70-2.04104.25128094.SZ星帅转债113.30-2.480.56113563.SH柳药转债107.540.050.22128095.SZ恩捷转债177.08-6.0144.58113565.SH宏辉转债105.02-1.162.40113564.SH天目转债132.86-1.6312.08128096.SZ奥瑞转债12
20、4.780.061.01128097.SZ奥佳转债135.200.160.30123043.SZ正元转债125.33-3.5437.77113566.SH翔港转债103.72-0.865.01110066.SH盛屯转债149.691.0019.31113568.SH新春转债99.670.490.52113567.SH君禾转债104.50-0.150.16113569.SH科达转债90.820.030.23113570.SH百达转债98.14-0.360.31128100.SZ搜特转债83.601.176.51110067.SH华安转债109.750.144.91113572.SH三祥转债121
21、.56-0.351.47123044.SZ红相转债103.14-0.010.74123045.SZ雷迪转债110.800.9633.94128101.SZ联创转债105.24-0.340.05110068.SH龙净转债103.521.005.36123046.SZ天铁转债150.50-5.9737.46123047.SZ久吾转债110.81-1.140.70128103.SZ同德转债162.600.2726.75名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）113033.SH利群转债98.050.101.11113574.SH华体转债100.18-1.221.45113575.SH东时转债13
22、9.36-4.0720.50113034.SH滨化转债127.294.3722.82113576.SH起步转债103.51-0.6016.80110069.SH瀚蓝转债134.70-0.378.21128106.SZ华统转债117.80-0.170.08123048.SZ应急转债109.12-0.445.64123049.SZ维尔转债112.910.522.84128105.SZ长集转债107.00-0.830.19127016.SZ鲁泰转债101.201.101.20113577.SH春秋转债126.47-0.061.01110070.SH凌钢转债106.450.693.51123050.S
23、Z聚飞转债112.80-1.190.19113578.SH全筑转债99.850.590.25113580.SH康隆转债305.34-16.4577.79113573.SH纵横转债98.30-0.871.03113579.SH健友转债116.50-1.161.12128107.SZ交科转债110.740.031.24128108.SZ蓝帆转债115.11-0.466.54128109.SZ楚江转债109.03-0.380.60113582.SH火炬转债231.372.2110.80113584.SH家悦转债99.470.650.71123051.SZ今天转债108.22-0.540.431230
24、53.SZ宝通转债103.051.030.36127017.SZ万青转债117.37-0.530.16123052.SZ飞鹿转债117.18-1.272.31123054.SZ思特转债97.21-1.010.36128111.SZ中矿转债157.500.7715.89113585.SH寿仙转债123.77-0.081.70113588.SH润达转债100.820.832.10128114.SZ正邦转债114.58-0.071.94128113.SZ比音转债133.994.4215.78113589.SH天创转债86.371.5624.79128117.SZ道恩转债97.10-0.690.621
25、13591.SH胜达转债99.99-0.540.18123056.SZ雪榕转债104.02-0.931.36128116.SZ瑞达转债97.250.060.35123057.SZ美联转债104.530.0318.16110071.SH湖盐转债99.840.120.19名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）127018.SZ本钢转债83.681.4011.53128118.SZ瀛通转债95.60-0.940.16113036.SH宁建转债98.55-0.450.15128119.SZ龙大转债121.290.820.57128121.SZ宏川转债109.20-0.420.37123058.
26、SZ欣旺转债120.49-0.054.58127019.SZ国城转债86.120.973.51113593.SH沪工转债105.050.060.36123059.SZ银信转债101.880.400.18127020.SZ中金转债109.00-0.272.24123060.SZ苏试转债117.450.130.84123062.SZ三超转债107.80-0.322.27128120.SZ联诚转债100.06-0.040.65128122.SZ兴森转债102.30-0.490.07113037.SH紫银转债102.00-0.120.95123061.SZ航新转债102.20-0.584.131135
27、95.SH花王转债92.54-0.300.46128123.SZ国光转债106.00-0.560.31123063.SZ大禹转债110.76-1.020.55128124.SZ科华转债95.70-0.260.49110073.SH国投转债105.310.293.05113596.SH城地转债87.00-0.011.88128125.SZ华阳转债107.12-0.350.16113597.SH佳力转债96.210.020.33113598.SH法兰转债122.19-2.494.21113594.SH淳中转债111.35-0.580.33127021 .SZ特发转299.990.020.79113
28、599.SH嘉友转债101.770.550.32113038.SH隆20转债157.220.26106.72128126.SZ赣锋转2172.00-0.5894.26128127.SZ文科转债96.000.230.80113600.SH新星转债95.57-0.640.42110072.SH广汇转债83.631.547.24113601.SH塞力转债96.40-0.500.45128128.SZ齐翔转2123.872.6746.09113039.SH嘉泽转债103.96-1.133.82128129.SZ青农转债104.730.124.89128130.SZ景兴转债118.881.758.711
29、10074.SH精达转债107.00-0.930.27113602.SH景20转债114.98-1.771.01名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）123064.SZ万孚转债114.50-0.690.64123065.SZ宝莱转债103.50-1.433.99128131.SZ崇达转299.83-0.370.33123066.SZ赛意转债121.00-0.010.27123067.SZ斯莱转债109.21-0.820.70128132.SZ交建转债90.93-0.070.55128133.SZ奇正转债102.310.131.28113603.SH东缆转债119.870.880.281
30、28134.SZ鸿路转债129.20-0.153.89110075.SH南航转债131.561.1811.24123068.SZ弘信转债103.891.261.02123069.SZ金诺转债99.70-0.300.41123070.SZ鹏辉转债106.401.824.01123072.SZ乐歌转债126.62-3.5716.69113605.SH大参转债124.551.430.86113040.SH星宇转债135.260.887.38127022.SZ恒逸转债151.013.4336.46123073.SZ同和转债110.551.333.34123074.SZ隆利转债116.50-1.107.
31、40113604.SH多伦转债96.23-0.200.09128135.SZ洽洽转债118.900.510.43127023.SZ华菱转2137.301.4869.95113606.SH荣泰转债108.690.180.04123075.SZ贝斯转债98.600.440.52110076.SH华海转债113.950.081.21123071 .SZ天能转债99.620.211.02113041.SH紫金转债171.011.5743.81113607.SH伟20转债116.400.060.14113608.SH威派转债100.000.390.04128137.SZ洁美转债123.200.160.3
32、1127024.SZ盈峰转债120.07-0.361.45127025.SZ冀东转债115.700.000.00128136.SZ立讯转债113.000.173.74123076.SZ强力转债92.860.370.46123077.SZ汉得转债97.190.660.68123078.SZ飞凯转债104.73-1.151.28110077.SH洪城转债106.75-0.130.47123080.SZ海波转债100.510.612.59123081 .SZ精研转债95.75-1.790.79113610.SH灵康转债99.580.300.39名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）11361
33、1.SH福20转债129.000.462.22113609.SH永安转债101.381.266.21128138.SZ侨银转债103.88-0.600.51128139.SZ祥鑫转债104.50-0.290.35123079.SZ运达转债114.10-0.870.96123082.SZ北陆转债109.613.1114.49123085.SZ万顺转293.15-0.052.89113043.SH财通转债109.710.122.15128140.SZ润建转债100.47-0.330.92123087.SZ明电转债101.93-0.141.13123083.SZ朗新转债113.000.020.731
34、23088.SZ威唐转债92.35-0.200.46113612.SH永冠转债108.000.270.54123084.SZ高澜转债97.20-0.300.53123089.SZ九洲转2106.991.227.27123090.SZ三诺转债116.000.872.87127026.SZ超声转债98.800.300.72113615.SH金诚转债128.182.543.86113044.SH大秦转债102.630.0610.17123091.SZ长海转债135.006.9710.17123092.SZ天壕转债106.09-0.581.68128141.SZ旺能转债115.63-0.322.641
35、13614.SH健20转债122.97-1.040.88128142.SZ新乳转债120.600.250.14127027.SZ靖远转债93.41-0.054.96113616.SH韦尔转债142.900.5211.74128143.SZ锋龙转债99.80-0.890.49113618.SH美诺转债106.162.183.64123086.SZ海兰转债101.600.082.41113042.SH上银转债101.22-0.1070.41123093.SZ金陵转债110.41-1.243.95113619.SH世运转债101.381.011.24113621.SH彤程转债117.020.675.
36、50123098.SZ一品转债137.900.071.14123097.SZ美力转债104.16-0.041.33123096.SZ思创转债107.602.1816.45123099.SZ普利转债117.001.742.12127028.SZ英特转债92.650.122.09118000.SH嘉元转债114.50-0.1720.80123100.SZ朗科转债100.39-0.247.30资料来源：Wind,中信证券研究部表6：可转债正股名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（亿）600271.SH航天信息11.31-0.530.60600755.SH厦门国贸6.69-0.590.9060099
37、8.SH九州通18.351.491.16600566.SH济川药业20.73-0.720.80600863.SH内蒙华电2.441.240.75600908.SH无锡银行6.650.451.37600831 .SH广电网络5.84-1.680.54600398.SH海澜之家7.19-0.830.67601238.SH广汽集团10.60-0.191.67601818.SH光大银行4.19-0.715.38601311.SH骆驼股份11.582.844.41601211.SH国泰君安16.190.003.72601222.SH林洋能源7.160.852.01601127.SH小康股份21.97-2.79