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1、The United Kinqdom: Backqround, Brexit, and Relations with the United Stat6sContentsIntroduction 1Domestic Political Situation2Brexit5The Withdraw al Agreement 6The Trade and Cooptation Agreement7UK-EU Relations Post-Transition 10Brex it and the UK Economy 11Brexit and UK Foreign and Defense Policy
2、11Counterterrorism 13U.S.-UK Relations 14Security and Defense Relations17Counterterrorism and IntelligenceCooperation 18Economic Relations18Northern Ireland18Conclusion19FiguresUnited Kingdom at a Glance:Mapand Basic Facts 2Figure 1. December 2019 UK GeneralElection Results3ContactsAuthor Informatio
3、n20Congressional Research Service commercial and law enforcement sectors. If approved by the EU member states, the decisions would apply for a period of four years, subject to renewal. European Commission, Data Protection: European Commission Launches Process on Personal Data Flows to UK, February 1
4、9, 2021.Congressional Research Service commercial and law enforcement sectors. If approved by the EU member states, the decisions would apply for a period of four years, subject to renewal. European Commission, Data Protection: European Commission Launches Process on Personal Data Flows to UK, Febru
5、ary 19, 2021.)The TCA establishes frameworks for cooperation on energy, fisheries, aviation, and road transport. The agreement establishes a framework for law enforcement and judicial cooperation, but not foreign policy or defense cooperation. The two sides agreed to review the TCAevery five years,
6、and either side can terminate the agreement with 12 months, notice.Analysts observe that the TCAreflects the UK governments prioritization of reclaiming sovereignty over maintaining economic integration with the EU. Charles Grant, Ten Reflections on a Sovereignty-First Brexit, Centre for European Re
7、form, December 28, 2020. The agreement satisfies a number of objectives promoted by advocates of Brexit, such as: Ending the free movement of people. Maintaining more seamless ties with the EU single market would likely have required the UK to continue granting EU citizens the right to freely enter,
8、 reside, and work in the UK. Reciprocal treatment of member states9 citizens is one of the fundamental principles of the EU. The UK government viewed ending the free movement of people as essential to regaining sovereignty over immigration policy. Guarantees of certain rights apply to those with pre
9、-existing residency status, and EUcitizens may continue to apply for residency in the UK. (Brexit also introduced new requirements for UK citizens living in EU member states to apply for residency or work authorizations in those countries.)Freedom from EU rules. Although the UK agreed to the princip
10、les of a level playing field, full departure from the EU single market and customs union frees the UK to set its own national regulations and conduct its own national trade policy. While the UK may choose to diverge from the EU where advantageous, doing so could have consequences for UK-EU trade and
11、 economic relations, potentially including the imposition of tariffs by the EU.Freedom from EU courts. With the end of the transition period, most decision making in the UK is no longer subject to the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU). A UK-EU Partnership Council over
12、sees the operation of the TCA, with decisions made by mutual consent and an independent arbitration tribunal handling dispute settlement. European courts have no role in settling disputes over the TCA. Failure to comply with an arbitration decision could result in economic retaliation or partial sus
13、pension of the agreement.The UK is not completely clear of the CJEU, however. The court retains jurisdiction over the interpretation and application of the operational elements of the withdrawal agreement, including citizens rights issues and the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. The CJEU also r
14、etains jurisdiction over any cases pending before the end of the transition period, including appeals, and the withdrawal agreement gives the EU four years from the end of the transitionperiod to bring cases against the UK for infringements alleged to have occurred during the transition period. Sylv
15、ia de Mars, Brexit Next Steps: The Court of Justice of the EU and the UK, House of Commons Library, February 7,2020.period to bring cases against the UK for infringements alleged to have occurred during the transition period. Sylvia de Mars, Brexit Next Steps: The Court of Justice of the EU and the
16、UK, House of Commons Library, February 7,2020.UK-EU Relations Post-TransitionThe relatively limited scope of the TCA means that continued negotiations about unresolved issues may be a feature of UK-EU relations for years to come. Negotiations may seek to adjust or deepen aspects of the TCAor establi
17、sh a framework for areas not covered in the agreement. Analysts note there is no guarantee the two sides will develop a deeper and more robust formal framework; Sam Lowe, The EV-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement: A Platform on Which to Build?, Centre for European Reform, January 12, 202 1.The rela
18、tively limited scope of the TCA means that continued negotiations about unresolved issues may be a feature of UK-EU relations for years to come. Negotiations may seek to adjust or deepen aspects of the TCAor establish a framework for areas not covered in the agreement. Analysts note there is no guar
19、antee the two sides will develop a deeper and more robust formal framework; Sam Lowe, The EV-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement: A Platform on Which to Build?, Centre for European Reform, January 12, 202 1. instead, they may choose not to expand upon the foundation established by the TCA, or tensio
20、ns in the UK-EU relationship could Emit cooperation.In December 2020, UK and EU officials reached agreement on how to apply the provisions of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland at the end of the transition period. Jess Sargeant and Maddy Thimont Jack, Nochern Ireland Protocol: Agreement in the
21、 UK-EU Joint Committee, Institute for Ciovernment, December 14, 2020. Since the protocol took effect on January 1, 2021, some implementation difficulties have affected trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Such difficulties have given rise to significant UK-EU tensions, which have p
22、ut pressure on the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland.In addition, in January 2021, the protocol was affected by EU efforts to control the export of COVID-19 vaccines outside the bloc. Concerned that Northern Ireland would be a route to circumvent export controls and export vaccines to th
23、e UK, the EU initially approved triggering an emergency override mechanism of the protocol that would have allowed the EU to block vaccine exports to Northern Ireland. John Campbell, Brexit: EU Introduces Controls on Vaccines to NI, BBC News, January 29,2021. Invoking the mechanism could have result
24、ed in border checks between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Although the EU almost immediately reversed itself amid a diplomatic outcry from UK, Irish, and Northern Ireland officials, the incident is widely viewed as calling into question Northern Irelands post-Brexit arrangements. David M. Herszenhor
25、n and Jakob Hanke Vela, 44 EU Drops Irish Border Move in Plan to Curb Vaccine Exports/9 Politico, January 30, 2021; and John Curtis, Northern Ireland Protocol: Article 16 and EU Vaccine Export Controls, UK Parliament House of Commons Library, February 2, 2021.In March 2021, in response to a unilater
26、al dec is ion by the UK to extend the grace periods for regulatory checks on certain goods transferred between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, the EU launched a formal process accusing the UK of breaching the withdrawal agreement. European Commission, Withdrawal Agreement: Commission Sends
27、Letter of Formal Notice to the United Kingdom for Breach of Its Obligations Under the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland, March 15, 2021. If not resolved by negotiation, the process could end up in the CJEU for a ruling or move to binding arbitration under the dispute settlement mechanism of t
28、he withdrawal agreement. Aruling against the UK in either forum could result in a financial penalty. If the EU determines that the process has failed to bring the UK into compliance with the withdrawal agreement, it could suspend some of its obligations under the agreement, suspend parts of the TCA(
29、and impose tariffs on the UK), or delay a decision on financial services equivalency.3 John Campbell, 44 Brexit: EU Legal Action Imminent over UK Extension to Grace Periods, BBC News, March 5, 2021; and Philip Blenkinsop, Explainer: How the EU Will Respond to Britains Northern Ireland Move, Reuters,
30、 March 5, 2021.Brexit and the UK EconomyMany economists expressed concerns that Brexit would cause an economic shock that could leave the UK facing weaker economic growth, higher inflation, job losses, and depreciation of the pound, with potentially significant negative consequences for the U.S. and
31、 global economies.Advocates of Brexit have maintained that such economic fears are greatly exaggerated and that, free from EU regulations, the UK will be able to forge new trade relationships with dynamic, emerging economies while remaining a preeminent international banking and financial center.Alt
32、hough the most dire predictions appear to have subsided, concerns remain that Brexit will pose a long-term drag on the UK economy. Economic growth was approximately 1.3% in 2018 and 1.4% in 2019, the UKs lowest annual economic growth since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.31 32 33 The CO VID-19
33、 pandemic and attendant public health measures, including a series of national lockdowns, caused the economy to contract nearly 10% in 2020. With the distribution of vaccines and less uncertainty around Brexit, forecasts expect the UK economy to grow 5.3% in 2021.Unemployment has remained relatively
34、 low, at 4.5% in 2020.UKTrade and Economy: Basic FactsService industries account for 80% of total UK economic output and more than 80% of employment.Trade with the EU: In 2019, trade with EU member countries accounted for 47% of the UK*s total trade (43% of UK exports and 52% of UK imports).Top 5 Ex
35、port Destinations (2019): United States, Germany, Netherlands, France, Ireland.Top 5 Import Sources (2019): United States, Germany, Netherlands, China, France.Sources: Philip Brien, Service Industries: Key Economic Indicators, House of Commons Library, March I 2, 2021. Matthew Ward, Statistics on UK
36、-EU Trade, House of Commons Library, November 10, 2020. UK Department for International Trade, UK Trade in Numbers, February 202 I.Government spending to support the economy amid the pandemic, combined with decreased revenues, caused the UKs budget deficit to increase from approximately 2.3% of GDP
37、in 2019 to approximately 13.4% of GDP in 2020. Government gross debt increased from approximately 85% of GDP in 2019 to more than 103% of GDP in 2020. To help public finances recover from pandemic -related spending, the UK government announced in March 2021 that it would increase the corporation tax
38、 rate from 19% (the lowest rate among G-7 countries) to 25% starting in 2023.32,Brexit and UK Foreign and Defense PolicyBrexit has forged opposing viewpoints about the potential trajectory of the UKs international influence in the coming years. The Conservative Party-led government has outlined a po
39、st-Brexit vision of a Global Britain that benefits from increased economic dynamism; remains heavily engaged internationally in terms of trade, foreign policy, and security issues; maintains close foreign and security policy cooperation with both the United States and the EU; and retains all the cap
40、abilities of a global power.33 Other observers contend that Brexit is likely to reduce theUKs ability to influence world events and that, without the ability to help shape EU foreign policy, the UK will have less influence in the rest of the world.on-our-international-ambition and Jeremy Hunt, Brita
41、in Has Been Shaping the World for Centuries. That Wont Change with Brexit,“ Washington Post, March 28,2019.4 Reuters, u Britain to Become Second Rate, in the World After Brexit: EUs Tusk,“ November 13, 2019 and Emilio Casalicchio, tcUK Will Be Diminished After Brexit, Rutte WarnsTory Leadership Hope
42、fuls,Politico. June 20,2019.UKs ability to influence world events and that, without the ability to help shape EU foreign policy, the UK will have less influence in the rest of the world.on-our-international-ambition and Jeremy Hunt, Britain Has Been Shaping the World for Centuries. That Wont Change
43、with Brexit,“ Washington Post, March 28,2019.4 Reuters, u Britain to Become Second Rate, in the World After Brexit: EUs Tusk,“ November 13, 2019 and Emilio Casalicchio, tcUK Will Be Diminished After Brexit, Rutte WarnsTory Leadership Hopefuls,Politico. June 20,2019. Rather than striving to be a “min
44、iature great power, one expert proposal suggests that the UK instead could sustain international influence by leveraging its strengths to act as a “broker of solutions to a range of global challenges. Robin Niblett, Global Britain, Global Broker, Chatham House, January 1 1,2021. The UK has opportuni
45、ties to assert an international leadership role postBrexit, as it holds the Group of 7 (G7) presidency in 2021 and is expected to host the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in November.NATO remains the preeminent transatlantic security institution, and in the context of Brexit, U
46、K leaders have emphasized their continued commitment to be a leading country in NATO. The UK has taken a strong role in efforts to deter Russian aggression. As part of NATOs Enhanced Forward Presence, the UK leads a multinational battlegroup in Estonia with approximately 830 soldiers, augmented by a
47、pproximately 340 soldiers from France. NATO, NATOs Enhanced Forward Presence,factsheet, March 2021. Also as part of NATOs Enhanced Forward Presence, the United States leads a multinational battlegroup in Poland, Canada leads in Latvia, and Germany leads in Lithuania. The unit is based in Tapa, about
48、 100 miles from the Russian border. The UK additionally contributes 140 personnel to the U.S.-led multinational battlegroup in Poland. The UK also remains a leading contributor to Operation Resolute Support, the NATO-led training and assistance mission in Afghanistan, with 750 UK soldiers taking par
49、t as of February 2021. NATO, Resolute Support Mission (RSM): Key Facts and Figures, February 2021.The UK has been a leading contributor to the international coalition formed in 2014 to combat the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and maintains more than 1,000 personnel in the region in continued support of that mission. UK Government, UK Action to Combat Daesh, at . UK armed forces participating in coalition efforts against t