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1、Unit-6-RisksUnit-6-Risks 新编大学英语第新编大学英语第二版第四册课文翻译二版第四册课文翻译Unit 6 RisksUnit 6 RisksRisks and YouRisks and YouAt some time or other, all of us haveAt some time or other, all of us haveplayedplayed thethe partpart ofof a a hypochondriac,hypochondriac,imaginingimagining thatthat wewe havehave somesome te
2、rribleterriblediseasedisease onon thethe strengthstrength ofof veryvery minorminorsymptoms.symptoms. SomeSome peoplepeople justjust havehave totohear about a new disease and they beginhear about a new disease and they begincheckingchecking themselvesthemselves toto seesee if if theythey maymaybe suf
3、fering from it. But fear of diseasebe suffering from it. But fear of diseaseisis notnot ourour onlyonly fear,fear, andand neitherneither isis riskriskof disease the only risk we run. Modernof disease the only risk we run. Modernlife is full of all manner of threats-to ourlife is full of all manner o
4、f threats-to ourlives,lives, ourour peacepeace ofof mind,mind, ourour families,families,andand ourour future.future. AndAnd fromfrom thesethese threatsthreatscomecome questionsquestions thatthat wewe mustmust posepose totoourselves:ourselves: IsIs thethe foodfood I I buybuy safe?safe? AreAretoys for
5、 my children likely to hurt them?toys for my children likely to hurt them?Should my family avoid smoked meats?Should my family avoid smoked meats?AmAm I I likelylikely toto bebe robbedrobbed onon vacations?vacations?Our uncertainties multiply indefinitely.Our uncertainties multiply indefinitely.Anxi
6、ety about the risks of life is a bitAnxiety about the risks of life is a bitlikelike hypochondria;hypochondria; inin both,both, thethe fearfear ororanxietyanxiety feedsfeeds onon partialpartial information.information.But one sharp difference exists betweenBut one sharp difference exists betweenthe
7、two. The hypochondriac can usuallythe two. The hypochondriac can usuallyturnturn toto a a physicianphysician toto getget a a definitivedefinitiveclarificationclarification ofof thethe situation-eithersituation-either youyouhave the suspected disease or you dont.have the suspected disease or you dont
8、.ItIt isis muchmuch moremore difficultdifficult whenwhen anxietyanxietyabout otherabout other formsforms ofof riskrisk isis concerned,concerned,because with many risks, the situation isbecause with many risks, the situation isnot as simple.not as simple.Risks are almost always a matter ofRisks are a
9、lmost always a matter ofprobabilityprobability ratherrather thanthan certainty.certainty. YouYoumay ask, Should I wear a seat belt? Ifmay ask, Should I wear a seat belt? Ifyou re going to have a head-on collision,you re going to have a head-on collision,ofof course.course. ButBut whatwhat if if youy
10、ou getget hithit fromfromthethe sideside andand endend upup trappedtrapped insideinside thethevehicle,vehicle, unableunable toto escapeescape becausebecause ofof a adamaged seat belt mechanism? So doesdamaged seat belt mechanism? So doesthisthis meanmean thatthat youyou shouldshould spendspend theth
11、eextraextra moneymoney forfor anan airair bag?bag? Again,Again, ininhead-on collisions, it may well save yourhead-on collisions, it may well save yourlife.life. ButBut whatwhat if if thethe bagbag accidentallyaccidentallyinflatesinflates whilewhile youyou areare drivingdriving downdown thethehighway
12、,highway, thusthus causingcausing anan accidentaccident thatthatwould never have occurred otherwise?would never have occurred otherwise?AllAll ofof thisthis isis anotheranother wayway ofof sayingsayingthatthat nothingnothing wewe dodo isis completelycompletely safe.safe.ThereTherearearerisks,risks,o
13、ftenoftenpotentiallypotentiallyseriousseriousones,ones,associatedassociatedwithwitheveryeveryhobby we have, every job we take, everyhobby we have, every job we take, everyfoodfood wewe eat-ineat-in otherother words,words, withwith everyeveryaction.action. ButBut thethe factfact thatthat therethere a
14、reare risksrisksassociated with everything we are goingassociated with everything we are goingto do does not, or should not, reduce usto do does not, or should not, reduce ustoto tremblingtrembling neurotics.neurotics. SomeSome actionsactionsareare riskierriskier thanthan others.others. TheThe point
15、point isis totoinforminformourselvesourselvesaboutaboutthetherelevantrelevantrisks and then act accordingly.risks and then act accordingly.ForForexample,example,largerlargercarscarsarearegenerallygenerallysafersaferthanthansmallsmallonesonesinincollisions.collisions. ButBut howhow muchmuch safer?saf
16、er? TheTheansweranswer isis thatthat youyou areare roughlyroughly twicetwice asaslikely to die in a serious crash in alikely to die in a serious crash in asmallsmall carcar thanthan inin a a largelarge one.one. YetYetlargerlarger carscars generallygenerally costcost moremore thanthansmall ones (and
17、also use more gas, thussmall ones (and also use more gas, thusincreasing the environmental risks!), soincreasing the environmental risks!), sohowhow dodo wewe decidedecide whenwhen thethe reducedreducedrisksrisks areare worthworth thethe addedadded costs?costs? TheTheultimateultimateriskriskavoidera
18、voidermight,might,forforinstance, buy a tank or an armored car,instance, buy a tank or an armored car,thusthus minimizingminimizing thethe riskrisk ofof deathdeath ororinjuryinjury inin a a collision.collision. ButBut isis thethe addedaddedcostcostandandinconvenienceinconvenienceworthworththethediff
19、erencedifference inin price,price, eveneven supposingsupposing youyoucould afford it?could afford it?WeWe cannotcannot beginbegin toto answeranswer suchsuchquestionsquestions untiluntil wewe havehave a a feelfeel forfor thethelevel of risks in question. So how do welevel of risks in question. So how
20、 do wemeasuremeasurethethelevellevelofofa arisk?risk?SomeSomepeople seem to think that the answer ispeople seem to think that the answer isa simple number. We know, for instance,a simple number. We know, for instance,that about 25,000 people per year die inthat about 25,000 people per year die inaut
21、omobileautomobile accidents.accidents. ByBy contrast,contrast, onlyonlyaboutabout300300diedieperperyearyearininminemineaccidents and disasters. Does that meanaccidents and disasters. Does that meanthat riding in a car is much riskier thanthat riding in a car is much riskier thanmining? Not necessari
22、ly. The fact is thatmining? Not necessarily. The fact is thatsomesome 200200 millionmillion AmericansAmericans regularlyregularlyride in automobiles in the United Statesride in automobiles in the United Stateseveryeveryyear;year;perhapsperhaps700,000700,000areareinvolvedinvolved inin mining.mining.
23、TheThe relevantrelevant figurefigurethat we need to assess a risk is a ratio orthat we need to assess a risk is a ratio orfraction.fraction. TheThe numeratornumerator ofof thethe fractionfractiontells us how many people were killed ortells us how many people were killed orharmedharmed asas thethe re
24、sultresult ofof a a particularparticularactivityactivity overover a a certaincertain periodperiod ofof time;time;thethe denominatordenominator tellstells usus howhow manymanypeoplepeople werewere involvedinvolved inin thatthat activityactivityduring that time. All risk levels are thusduring that tim
25、e. All risk levels are thusratios or fractions, with values betweenratios or fractions, with values between0 (no risk) and 1 (totally risky).0 (no risk) and 1 (totally risky).ByBy reducingreducing allall risksrisks toto ratiosratios ororfractionsfractions ofof thisthis sort,sort, wewe cancan beginbe
26、gin totocomparecomparedifferentdifferentsortssortsofofrisks-likerisks-likemining versus riding in a car. The largermining versus riding in a car. The largerthis ratio, that is, the closer it is to 1, thethis ratio, that is, the closer it is to 1, theriskierriskier thethe activityactivity inin questi
27、on.question. InIn thethecasecase justjust discussed,discussed, wewe wouldwould findfind thetherelativerelative safetysafety ofof carcar traveltravel andand coalcoalmining by dividing the numbers of livesmining by dividing the numbers of liveslostlost inin eacheach byby thethe numbernumber ofof peopl
28、epeopleparticipatingparticipating inin each.each. Here,Here, it it isis clearclearthatthat thethe riskinessriskiness ofof travelingtraveling byby carcar isisaboutabout 1 1 deathdeath perper 10,00010,000 passengers;passengers;withwith mining,mining, thethe riskrisk levellevel isis aboutabout 4 4death
29、sdeaths perper 10,00010,000 miners.miners. SoSo althoughalthoughfarfarmoremorepeoplepeoplearearekilledkilledinincarcaraccidentsaccidentsthanthan ininmining,mining, thethelatterlatterturnsturns outout toto bebe fourfour timestimes riskierriskier thanthanthethe former.former. ThoseThose ratiosratios e
30、nableenable usus totocomparecomparethetherisksrisksofofactivitiesactivitiesororsituationssituations asas differentdifferent asas applesapples andandoranges. If you are opposed to risks, youoranges. If you are opposed to risks, youwillwill wantwant toto choosechoose youryour activitiesactivities byby
31、focusing on the small-ratio exposures. Iffocusing on the small-ratio exposures. Ifyou are reckless, then you are not likelyyou are reckless, then you are not likelyto be afraid of higher ratios unless theyto be afraid of higher ratios unless theyget uncomfortably large.get uncomfortably large.OnceOn
32、ce wewe understandunderstand thatthat riskrisk cancannevernever bebe totallytotally eliminatedeliminated fromfrom anyanysituation and that, therefore, nothing issituation and that, therefore, nothing iscompletelycompletely safe,safe, wewe willwill thenthen seesee thatthatthethe issueissue isis notno
33、t oneone ofof avoidingavoiding risksrisksaltogetheraltogether butbut ratherrather oneone ofof managingmanagingrisksrisksinina asensiblesensiblerequiresrequiresway.way.twotwoRiskRiskthings:things:managementmanagementcommoncommon sensesense andand informationinformation aboutaboutthe character and deg
34、ree of the risks wethe character and degree of the risks wemay be running.may be running.风险与你风险与你1 1在说不定的某个时候，在说不定的某个时候， 我们大家都曾充当过我们大家都曾充当过疑病症患者的角色疑病症患者的角色, ,只凭一些轻微的症状便怀疑只凭一些轻微的症状便怀疑自己得了某种可怕的病。自己得了某种可怕的病。 有的人只要一听说一种有的人只要一听说一种新的疾病，新的疾病，就会去检查，就会去检查，看自己是否可能患了这看自己是否可能患了这种病。种病。 然而，然而， 对疾病的恐惧并非我们唯一的恐惧。对疾病
35、的恐惧并非我们唯一的恐惧。同样，患病的危险也并非我们唯一会遇上的危同样，患病的危险也并非我们唯一会遇上的危险。险。现代生活中充满了各种各样的威胁，现代生活中充满了各种各样的威胁，诸如对诸如对我们生命的威胁，我们生命的威胁，对我们平和心境的威胁，对我们平和心境的威胁，对我对我们家人的威胁，们家人的威胁，对我们未来的威胁。对我们未来的威胁。从而产生了从而产生了好些问题，好些问题，我们不得不问自己：我们不得不问自己：我买的食品安全我买的食品安全吗？给孩子们的玩具会伤害他们吗？我们家的吗？给孩子们的玩具会伤害他们吗？我们家的人是不是不该吃熏肉？我度假时会不会遭抢人是不是不该吃熏肉？我度假时会不会遭抢劫
36、？我们的疑虑就无休止地增加。劫？我们的疑虑就无休止地增加。2 2对生活中风险的担忧与疑病症有相似之处；对生活中风险的担忧与疑病症有相似之处；二者的恐惧或忧虑皆起因于信息不全面。二者的恐惧或忧虑皆起因于信息不全面。 但二者但二者之间也存在一个明显的差别。之间也存在一个明显的差别。 疑病症患者通常可疑病症患者通常可以求助于医生，以求助于医生，以便澄清疑虑以便澄清疑虑要么你得了你要么你得了你所怀疑的疾病，所怀疑的疾病，要么你没得。要么你没得。但当涉及到其它形但当涉及到其它形式的风险时，式的风险时，事情就要困难得多，事情就要困难得多，因为对许多风因为对许多风险来说，情况并不那么简单。险来说，情况并不那
37、么简单。3 3风险几乎总是一个可能性的问题而无确定性风险几乎总是一个可能性的问题而无确定性可言。可言。你也许会问：你也许会问：“ “我该不该系安全带？我该不该系安全带？” ”如果如果你坐的车要与其它车正面相撞，你坐的车要与其它车正面相撞， 那当然该系安全那当然该系安全带。倘若你的车侧面被撞，结果你被困在车里，带。倘若你的车侧面被撞，结果你被困在车里，又因安全带装置遭破坏而无法挣脱，那怎么办又因安全带装置遭破坏而无法挣脱，那怎么办呢？这是否意味着你该再花些钱在车内安一个呢？这是否意味着你该再花些钱在车内安一个保险气袋呢？同样，保险气袋呢？同样，在正面相撞的情况下，在正面相撞的情况下，保险保险气袋
38、完全可以救你一命。气袋完全可以救你一命。但是，但是，万一正当你在高万一正当你在高速公路上开车时，保险气袋突然意外充气膨胀，速公路上开车时，保险气袋突然意外充气膨胀，从而导致了本来绝不会发生的事故，从而导致了本来绝不会发生的事故， 那又该如何那又该如何是好？是好？4 4上面说的这一切，只是从另一角度说明我们上面说的这一切，只是从另一角度说明我们所做的事没有一件是百分之百安全的。所做的事没有一件是百分之百安全的。 有些风险有些风险常常是潜在的重大风险常常是潜在的重大风险 与我们的每个与我们的每个业余爱好、业余爱好、所做的每项工作、所做的每项工作、所吃的每种食物有所吃的每种食物有关，换句话说，与所进
39、行的任何活动有关。但我关，换句话说，与所进行的任何活动有关。但我们又不能，们又不能， 也不该因危险存在于我们将要做的每也不该因危险存在于我们将要做的每件事，件事，而变成战战兢兢的神经症患者。而变成战战兢兢的神经症患者。有些活动有些活动是比其它活动更危险。是比其它活动更危险。 关键在于要让自己了解相关键在于要让自己了解相应的风险，然后相机行事。应的风险，然后相机行事。5 5例如，两车相撞时，大车总的说来要比小车例如，两车相撞时，大车总的说来要比小车安全些。安全些。可究竟能安全多少呢？答案是这样：可究竟能安全多少呢？答案是这样：在在一起严重的车祸中坐小车丧生的可能性是坐大一起严重的车祸中坐小车丧生
40、的可能性是坐大车的两倍左右。然而，大车通常比小车贵（并且车的两倍左右。然而，大车通常比小车贵（并且消耗更多的汽油，由此给环境带来了更大的风消耗更多的汽油，由此给环境带来了更大的风险！险！ ） 。 那么我们该怎样确定什么时候值得为降低那么我们该怎样确定什么时候值得为降低风险增加花费呢？例如，风险增加花费呢？例如， 避免风险最保险的做法避免风险最保险的做法也许是去买一辆坦克或装甲车，也许是去买一辆坦克或装甲车， 从而把撞车时死从而把撞车时死亡或受伤的风险降到最小。亡或受伤的风险降到最小。 然而，然而， 即便你买得起，即便你买得起，这笔额外的费用以及忍受坦克或装甲车所带来这笔额外的费用以及忍受坦克或
41、装甲车所带来的不便是否值得呢？的不便是否值得呢？6 6在我们尚不知所涉及的风险程度之前，我们在我们尚不知所涉及的风险程度之前，我们还无法回答这些问题。还无法回答这些问题。那么，那么，我们该如何去衡量我们该如何去衡量风险程度呢？有些人似乎认为答案只不过是一风险程度呢？有些人似乎认为答案只不过是一个简单的数字。例如，我们知道每年大约有个简单的数字。例如，我们知道每年大约有25,00025,000 人死于车祸。人死于车祸。 相比之下，相比之下， 每年只有大约每年只有大约300300 人死于矿山事故和灾难。这难道就意味着人死于矿山事故和灾难。这难道就意味着乘坐汽车要比采矿危险得多吗？未必。事实是，乘坐
42、汽车要比采矿危险得多吗？未必。事实是，在美国每年大约有两亿人经常性地以车代步；在美国每年大约有两亿人经常性地以车代步； 而而大概只有大概只有 7070 万人从事采矿作业。我们评估一种万人从事采矿作业。我们评估一种风险时，所需要的有关数字是一个比率或分数。风险时，所需要的有关数字是一个比率或分数。该分数的分子告诉我们在某个特定时期由于从该分数的分子告诉我们在某个特定时期由于从事某种特定活动而丧生或受伤的人数；事某种特定活动而丧生或受伤的人数； 其分母告其分母告诉我们在这一时期从事这种活动的总人数。这诉我们在这一时期从事这种活动的总人数。这样，样，所有的风险程度都是由比率或分数表示，所有的风险程度
43、都是由比率或分数表示，其其大小介于大小介于 0 0（无风险）到（无风险）到 1 1（完全风险）之间。（完全风险）之间。7 7通过把所有风险都简化为这种比率或分数，通过把所有风险都简化为这种比率或分数，我们便可以开始比较不同种类的风险，我们便可以开始比较不同种类的风险， 如比较采如比较采矿与乘坐汽车。矿与乘坐汽车。这个比率越大，这个比率越大，也就是说它越接也就是说它越接近近 1 1，那么有关活动的风险就越大。在刚才讨论，那么有关活动的风险就越大。在刚才讨论的例子中，的例子中， 我们可以用每一活动中死亡的人数除我们可以用每一活动中死亡的人数除以参与该活动的总人数，以参与该活动的总人数， 从而找出汽
44、车旅行与采从而找出汽车旅行与采煤的相对安全性。煤的相对安全性。 此处，此处， 我们可以很清楚地看到，我们可以很清楚地看到，乘坐汽车旅行的风险是每一万人中大约有一人乘坐汽车旅行的风险是每一万人中大约有一人丧生；丧生；而就采矿而言，而就采矿而言，其危险程度是每一万矿工其危险程度是每一万矿工中大约有四人死亡。中大约有四人死亡。所以，所以，尽管在车祸中丧生的尽管在车祸中丧生的人远比采矿要多，其实后者的风险是前者的四人远比采矿要多，其实后者的风险是前者的四倍。倍。 这些比率使我们能够对毫不相干的活动或情这些比率使我们能够对毫不相干的活动或情形的危险性加以比较，形的危险性加以比较， 即便差别如苹果与橘子那
45、即便差别如苹果与橘子那样大也能比较。样大也能比较。如果你反对冒险，如果你反对冒险，你就会选择风你就会选择风险比率较小的活动。险比率较小的活动。如果你无所畏惧，如果你无所畏惧，那么你往那么你往往会对高比率不太在乎，往会对高比率不太在乎， 除非它们大得令人难以除非它们大得令人难以承受。承受。8 8我们一旦明白了风险是永远无法从任何情况我们一旦明白了风险是永远无法从任何情况中完全去除的，中完全去除的，因而就没有绝对安全的事，因而就没有绝对安全的事，我们我们也就会明白问题的关键不是要彻底避免风险，也就会明白问题的关键不是要彻底避免风险， 而而是要理智地管理风险。风险管理需要两大要素：是要理智地管理风险
46、。风险管理需要两大要素：常识以及与我们可能要承担的风险的性质和程常识以及与我们可能要承担的风险的性质和程度相关的信息。度相关的信息。Health RisksHealth RisksOpinion polls repeatedly tell us thatOpinion polls repeatedly tell us thatthethe onlyonly thingthing AmericansAmericans worryworry aboutaboutmoremore thanthan thethe environmentenvironment isis theirtheirhealth
47、.health. ThisThis isis entirelyentirely understandable,understandable,forfor healthhealth isis obviouslyobviously preferablepreferable totoillness.illness.WhatWhatwithwithmakesmakeshealthhealthtodaystodaysslightlyslightlypreoccupationpreoccupationsurprisingsurprising isis thatthat AmericansAmericans
48、 areare farfarhealthier now than they have ever been.healthier now than they have ever been.ManyMany diseasesdiseases thatthat onceonce struckstruck terrorterrorinto hearts have either been completelyinto hearts have either been completelyeliminatedeliminated oror broughtbrought underunder control.c
49、ontrol.AlthoughAlthough AIDSAIDS isis a a notablenotable exception,exception,few new mass killers have come along tofew new mass killers have come along toreplacereplacethetheonesonesthatthathavehavebeenbeeneliminated.eliminated.Nonetheless,Nonetheless,variousvariousthreatsthreatshealthhealthandandt
50、otothetheit itremainsremainseveryones permanent concern. After all,everyones permanent concern. After all,moremore thanthan halfhalf ofof usus (57(57 percent)percent) willwilldie from either heart disease or cancer,die from either heart disease or cancer,if current trends continue.if current trends