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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件Today I want to talk to you about ethnic conflict and civilwar.今天我想同你们谈谈 种族冲突 与内战00:12These are not normally the most cheerful of topics,nor dothey generally generate the kind of good news that thisconference is about.它们大多不是让人开心的话题 也很少带来 令人高兴的好消息 这就是今天的议题00:18Yet,not only is there at le
2、ast some good news to be toldabout fewer such conflicts now than two decades ago,butwhat is perhaps more important is that we also have come toa much better understanding of what can be done to furtherreduce the number of ethnic conflicts and civil wars and thesuffering that they inflict.尽管如此，我们至少还有
3、一些好消息 和20年前相比 这类冲突已经日趋减少 但也许更重要的是 我们已经开始 更好的理解了可以做些什么 来进一步减少 种族冲突和内战 以及伴随而来的痛苦。00:28Three things stand out:leadership,diplomacy andinstitutional design.主要有三点：领导力，外交手腕 和制度设计。00:51What I will focus on in my talk is why they matter,how theymatter,and what we can all do to make sure that theycontinue to
4、 matter in the right ways,that is,how all of us cancontribute to developing and honing the skills of local andglobal leaders to make peace and to make it last.今天的演讲，我会重点谈谈 这三点为什么重要，如何重要 已经我们可以做些什么 来确保这三个重要因素 继续发挥真面影响力 也就是谈谈，我们每一个人都可以怎样贡献 来培育和打磨 本地与世界领导人 和解并保持长治久安 的能力和技巧。00:59ethnic:adj.种族的;人种的 civil
5、 war:内战 conference:n.会议;讨论;协商;联盟;(正式)讨论会;工会,工党用语(每年的)大会/vi.举行或参加(系列)会议 conflicts:n.冲突;矛盾(conflict的复数形式);斗争/v.抵触;战斗;有分歧(conflict的第三人称单数形式)inflict:vt.造成;使遭受(损伤,痛苦等);给予(打击等)stand out:突出;站出来;坚持到底;坚决反对 diplomacy:n.外交;外交手腕;交际手段 institutional:adj.制度的;制度上的/学会的;由来已久的;习以为常的/公共机构的;慈善机构的 contribute to:有助于;捐献 ho
6、ning:n.珩磨/v.用磨刀石磨(hone的ing形式)make peace:讲和;调解;言和和解But lets start at the beginning.首先，让我们从头开始01:23Civil wars have made news headlines for many decades now,and ethnic conflicts in particular have been a near constantpresence as a major international security threat.几十年里来 内战一直占据新闻头条的位置 尤其是种族冲突，近期不断地作为
7、危害世界安全的主要威胁出现。01:26For nearly two decades now,the news has been bad and theimages have been haunting.过去20年来，负面新闻不断 境况是令人困扰的。01:38In Georgia,after years of stalemate,we saw a full-scaleresurgence of violence in August,2008.在格鲁吉亚，经过多年的对峙之后，在2008年8月 再度爆发全面的暴力冲突01:46This quickly escalated into a five-da
8、y war between Russiaand Georgia,leaving Georgia ever more divided.而且很快恶化为俄罗斯和格鲁吉亚之间的 五日战争 这令格鲁吉亚更加分崩离析01:54In Kenya,contested presidential elections in 2007-we justheard about them-quickly led to high levels of inter-ethnicviolence and the killing and displacement of thousands ofpeople.在肯尼亚，2007年有争议
9、的总统选举 我们最近才听到这件事 立刻转变为严重的 种族间的暴力冲突成千上万的人 遭到杀害，流离失所02:02In Sri Lanka,a decades-long civil war between the Tamilminority and the Sinhala majority led to a bloody climax in2009,after perhaps as many as 100,000 people had beenkilled since 1983.在斯里兰卡 持续了十年的 泰米尔少数民族与主要民族僧伽罗之间的 内战 在2009年到达了血腥的顶点 自1983年以来 已
10、近有将近 十万人死于内战02:16at the beginning:首先;从一开始;起初;从头开始 in particular:尤其,特别 stalemate:n.僵局;陷于困境/vt.使僵持;使陷入困境/vi.僵持;陷入僵局 full-scale:adj.全面的;完全的;照原尺寸的 resurgence:n.复活;再现;再起 escalated:升级 contested:vt.争辩;提出质疑/vi.竞争;争辩/n.竞赛;争夺;争论 presidential:adj.总统的;首长的;统辖的 displacement:n.取代,位移;船排水量 climax:n.高潮；顶点；层进法；极点In Ky
11、rgyzstan,just over the last few weeks,unprecedentedlevels of violence occurred between ethnic Kyrgyz and ethnicUzbeks.在吉尔吉斯斯坦，仅几个星期的功夫，史无前例的暴力冲突发生 于吉尔吉斯族 和乌兹别克族之间。02:33Hundreds have been killed,and more than 100,000displaced,including many ethnic Uzbeks who fled toneighboring Uzbekistan.成百上千人死去 十万余人
12、流离失所，其中包括诸多逃亡邻国乌兹别克斯坦的 乌孜别克族人02:43TED演讲者：Stefan Wolff|斯蒂芬.沃尔夫演讲标题：Stefan Wolff:The path to ending ethnic conflicts|通向结束种族冲突的道路内容概要：Stefan Wolff studies contemporary conflicts,focusing on the prevention andsettlement of ethnic conflicts and in postconflict reconstruction in deeply divided and war-tor
13、nsocieties.内战和种族纷争已经给全世界带来令人难以置信的苦难，而斯蒂芬.沃尔夫的研究表明，在过去的20年内，这类冲突发生的数量在稳步减少。他从北爱尔兰，利比亚，帝汶岛的冲突中得到:领导力，外交手腕和制度上的设计是三种最有效的捍卫和平的武器。In the Middle East,conflict between Israelis and Palestinianscontinues unabated,and it becomes ever more difficult tosee how,just how a possible,sustainable solution can beach
14、ieved.在中东地区 以色列和巴勒斯坦间的冲突 持续不断越来越难让人预见 怎么达成 一个两方接受，持续可行的 和平解决方案。02:53Darfur may have slipped from the news headlines,but thekilling and displacement there continues as well,and thesheer human misery that it creates is very hard to fathom.达尔富尔可能已经从新闻头条中淡出了，但那里的杀戮和流离失所 依然继续着 而且这带给当地人的苦难 远超你我的想象03:10And
15、 in Iraq,finally,violence is on the rise again,and thecountry has yet to form a government four months after itslast parliamentary elections.最后，看看伊拉克，暴力又重新抬头 伊拉克四个月前 进行的国会选举 直到目前仍未能形成执政政府。03:22But hang on,this talk is to be about the good news.但等等，这个演讲应该带来好消息的03:37unprecedented:adj.空前的;无前例的 displace
16、d:adj.无家可归的;位移的;被取代的/n.无家可归者/v.取代(displace的过去分词);移动的位置;撤换 fled:v.逃走(flee的过去分词);消逝 neighboring:adj.邻近的;附近的(等于neighbouring)/v.与为邻;位于附近(neighbor的ing形式)unabated:adj.不减弱的,不衰退的 sustainable:adj.可以忍受的；足可支撑的；养得起的；可持续的 fathom:vt.看穿;彻底了解;测量的深度/n.英寻(测量水深的长度单位)parliamentary:adj.议会的;国会的;议会制度的 hang on:坚持下去;不挂断;握住不
17、放So are these now the images of the past?所以说，以上提到的情形已经过去了吗？03:40Well,notwithstanding the gloomy pictures from the MiddleEast,Darfur,Iraq,elsewhere,there is a longer-term trend thatdoes represent some good news.嗯，虽然悲惨的现状 存在于中东，达尔富尔 伊拉克及其他地区 从长期来看 我们的确有好消息03:44Over the past two decades,since the end o
18、f the Cold War,there has been an overall decline in the number of civil wars.自冷战后的20年来 战争的次数 总体来说是在减少的03:56Since the high in the early 1990s,with about 50 such civilwars ongoing,we now have 30 percent fewer such conflictstoday.在九十年代早期最高峰时 大约有50场的内战 现在，冲突已经减少 百分之三十04:04The number of people killed in
19、civil wars also is much lowertoday than it was a decade ago or two.如今在内战中惨遭杀害的人 也远低于 十年前或二十年前的数字04:14But this trend is less unambiguous.但是，这个趋势也不完全清晰04:22The highest level of deaths on the battlefield was recordedbetween 1998 and 2001,with about 80,000 soldiers,policemen and rebels killed every year
20、.战场上最多的死亡人数 记录在1998和2001年之间，大约每年有八万左右的士兵，警察和反抗者被杀害04:25The lowest number of combatant casualties occurred in2003,with just 20,000 killed.战争中死亡人人数的最低数量 出现在2003年 大约两万人遇害04:36gloomy:adj.黑暗的；沮丧的；阴郁的 unambiguous:adj.不含糊的;清楚的;明白的 rebels:n.反叛者(rebel的复数形式)/v.谋反(rebel的第三人称单数形式)lowest:adj.最低的;最小的(low的最高级);最底下
21、的 combatant:n.战士;争斗者/adj.战斗的;好斗的 casualties:n.伤亡;人员伤亡(casualty的复数)Despite the up and down since then,the overall trend-andthis is the important bit-clearly points downward for thepast two decades.尽管后来有数字上的起伏，上上下下，总体的趋势 也是最重要的关键 在过去20年 下降很明显04:44The news about civilian casualties is also less bad tha
22、n it usedto be.有关平民遇害的新闻报道 与以前相比相对减少04:56From over 12,000 civilians deliberately killed in civil wars in1997 and 1998,a decade later,this figure stands at 4,000.在1997与1998年间 超过一万两千平民 在内战中遭到屠杀 十年之后 这个数目仅为400005:00This is a decrease by two-thirds.数字减少了三分之二05:12This decline would be even more obvious i
23、f we factored inthe genocide in Rwanda in 1994.如果我们算上卢旺达1994年的种族清洗 减少趋势就更明显了 在199405:15But then 800,000 civilians were slaughtered in a matter ofjust a few months.在短短几个月内 就有八十万平民遭到屠杀05:21This certainly is an accomplishment that must never besurpassed.这肯定是个 无法超越的进步。05:27What is also important is to n
24、ote that these figures only tellpart of the story.重要的是要知道 这些数字仅告诉我们事实的冰山一角05:32They exclude people that died as a consequence of civil war,from hunger or disease,for example.这些数字没有包括 由于内战而死的人 例如：死于饥饿和疾病的人05:37up and down:上上下下;到处;前前后后;来来往往 deliberately:adv.故意地;谨慎地;慎重地 two-thirds:n.三分之二/三分之二的/三分之二地 fa
25、ctored:adj.因式分解的/v.将作为因素考虑;分解的因子(factor的过去分词)genocide:n.种族灭绝;灭绝整个种族的大屠杀 slaughtered:vt.屠宰,屠杀;杀戮;使惨败/n.屠宰,屠杀;杀戮;消灭 accomplishment:n.成就;完成;技艺,技能 surpassed:v.超过,凌驾(surpass的过去分词形式)consequence:n.结果;重要性;推论And they also do not properly account for civilian sufferingmore generally.这些数字也无法真实地反映 遭受各种苦难的平民百姓05
26、:43Torture,rape and ethnic cleansing have become highlyeffective,if often non-lethal,weapons in civil war.折磨，强奸和种族清洗 已经成为内战中极为有效令人生不如死的非致命武器05:49To put it differently,for the civilians that suffer theconsequences of ethnic conflict and civil war,there is nogood war and there is no bad peace.换句话说 对于由
27、于种族冲突和内战而遭受伤害 平民百姓来说 没有好战争，也没有坏和平。05:59Thus,even though every civilian killed,maimed,raped,ortortured is one too many,the fact that the number of civiliancasualties is clearly lower today than it was a decade ago,isgood news.任何一位平民遭到杀害、致残，抢劫，或折磨 都不能轻视 然而平民死亡的数字 比起十年前 已无疑减少 这个事实 的确是好消息06:14So,we have
28、 fewer conflicts today in which fewer people getkilled.今日冲突数量的减少 遭到杀害的人数下降06:30And the big question,of course,is why?我们当然要问这样一个核心问题：为什么减少？06:35In some cases,there is a military victory of one side.在某些案例之中 是一方获得了军事胜利06:39This is a solution of sorts,but rarely is it one that comeswithout human costs o
29、r humanitarian consequences.这是一种解决方法 但是这种解决方法 很少是在没有人员伤亡 或是没有人道代价之下达成的06:43account for:对负有责任;对做出解释;说明的原因;导致;(比例)占 consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数)no good:很糟,没有用 maimed:adj.残废的;受伤的/v.使残废(maim的过去分词)tortured:v.拷打;虐待(torture的过去分词);使扭曲 humanitarian:adj.人道主义的;博爱的;基督凡人论的/n.人道主义者;基督凡人论者The defeat of
30、the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka is perhaps themost recent example of this,but we have seen similar so-called military solutions in the Balkans,in the South Caucasusand across most of Africa.斯里兰卡的塔米尔之虎的战败 我想是最近的一个血腥例子 但是我们也在巴尔干半岛、南高加索 以及非洲的大部分地区 见过类似的 所谓的血腥06:52At times,they are complimented by negotia
31、tedsettlements,or at least cease-fire agreements,andpeacekeepers are deployed.在其他情况下 冲突者因为谈判解决而接受赞扬 或是至少达成停火协议 接受和平部队派驻07:07But hardly ever do they represent a resounding success-Bosnia and Herzegovina perhaps more so than Georgia.但这些情况并不表示 成功获得的和平 波斯利亚和黑赛格威那 与乔治亚相比，更接近这种状况07:15But for many parts of
32、 Africa,a colleague of mine once put itthis way,The cease-fire on Tuesday night was reached just intime for the genocide to start on Wednesday morning.但对于非洲的多数区域 我的同事曾经如此形容：“星期二晚上的停火协议 及时阻止了 星期三早上开始的种族屠杀”07:23But lets look at the good news again.我们再回头看看好消息07:38If theres no solution on the battlefiel
33、d,three factors canaccount for the prevention of ethnic conflict and civil war,orfor sustainable peace afterwards:leadership,diplomacy andinstitutional design.如果战场上无法获得解决方案 有三个因素 可以阻止种族冲突与内战 获取得日后足以令人接受的和平 领导能力、外交手腕 以及制度设计07:40so-called:adj.所谓的；号称的 At times:有时;偶尔 complimented:n.恭维;称赞;问候;致意;道贺/vt.恭维;
34、称赞negotiated:adj.商谈的/v.谈判,协商(negotiate过去式和过去分词形式)settlements:n.定居点,殖民地(settlement复数)cease-fire:n.停火 agreements:n.法协议;同意;法契约(agreement的复数形式)peacekeepers:维和人员(peacekeeper的复数)deployed:v.部署(deploy的过去式);展开 hardly ever:几乎不;几乎从来不 resounding:adj.响亮的;轰动的;彻底的/v.回响(resound的ing形式)prevention:n.预防;阻止;妨碍www.XiYuS锡
35、育软件Take the example of Northern Ireland.以北爱尔兰为例07:56Despite centuries of animosity,decades of violence andthousands of people killed,1998 saw the conclusion of anhistoric agreement.即使有着几个世纪的仇恨 数十年的暴力冲突 数千人遭受杀害 仍与1998年达成了 历史性的协议07:59Its initial version was skillfully mediated by Senator GeorgeMitchel
36、l.乔治.米切尔参议员十分有技巧性的斡旋了 双方最初的协议版本08:11Crucially,for the long-term success of the peace process inNorthern Ireland,he imposed very clear conditions for theparticipation and negotiations.让北爱尔兰的和平进程 能够长久维持的关键 是他为参与和谈的双方 加上了十分明确的条件08:16Central among them,a commitment to exclusively peacefulmeans.在这些条件之中 最
37、重要的是只能使用 和平手段的承诺08:26Subsequent revisions of the agreement were facilitated bythe British and Irish governments,who never wavered in theirdetermination to bring peace and stability to NorthernIreland.随后的修订协议 因为英国与爱尔兰 没有动摇的和平决心 迅速带来了北爱尔兰的和平与稳定08:33animosity:n.憎恶,仇恨,敌意 skillfully:adv.巧妙地;精巧地 mediated:
38、vt.仲裁,调停;调解(mediate的过去式及过去分词形式)Crucially:adv.关键地;至关重要地 long-term:adj.长期的/从长远来看 imposed:adj.强加的;施加的;应用的/v.欺骗(impose的过去分词);把强加于 participation:n.参与；分享；参股 negotiations:n.谈判(negotiation的复数);磋商exclusively:adv.唯一地；专有地；排外地 revisions:n.校订,印刷修正;复习(revision的复数形式)facilitated:v.促进;帮助(facilitate的过去分词);使有利发展 waver
39、ed:vi.摇曳;踌躇;摆动/n.动摇;踌躇;挥动者The core institutions that were put in place in 1998 and theirmodifications in 2006 and 2008 were highly innovative and在1998年起草的 核心宪法 以及2006与2008年 对宪法的修订 都具有十足创新的精神 并让所有互相冲突的党派 见到他们所关注的核心问题、需求获modifications in 2006 and 2008 were highly innovative andallowed all conflict par
40、ties to see their core concerns anddemands addressed.冲突的党派 见到他们所关注的核心问题、需求获得解决08:44The agreement combines a power-sharing arrangement inNorthern Ireland with cross-border institutions that linkBelfast and Dublin and thus recognizes the so-called Irishdimension of the conflict.这份协议结合了北爱尔兰 权利分享的安排 与超越
41、国境的宪法 连接了贝尔法特与都柏林 以此承认了所谓的爱尔兰地区的冲突09:01And significantly,theres also a clear focus on both the rightsof individuals and the rights of communities.显而易见 这份宪法同时明确地保障了 个人的权利与当地社群的权利09:14The provisions in the agreement may be complex,but so isthe underlying conflict.也许这份协议的条款非常复杂 但是在它背后冲突也是同样复杂09:24Perha
42、ps most importantly,local leaders repeatedly rose tothe challenge of compromise,not always fast and not alwaysenthusiastically,but rise in the end they did.最重要的是 当地领袖不断地回应对于妥协让步的反对意见 不见得每次都反映迅速 也不见得每次都充满热情 但是最终证明他们缔造了和平09:31modifications:n.修改;修饰;变型;条款修订(modification的复数)innovative:adj.革新的，创新的 power-s
43、haring:n.权力分享 cross-border:adj.跨越边界的;国境线交叉的 recognizes:认出/表彰/承认/赞成 dimension:n.方面;数维;尺寸;次元;容积vt.标出尺寸/adj.规格的 significantly:adv.意味深长地;值得注目地 provisions:n.规定(provision的复数);食品;预备/v.供应补给品;供应粮食(provision的三单形式)underlying:adj.潜在的；根本的；在下面的；优先的/v.放在的下面；为的基础；优先于(underlie的ing形式)compromise:vt.妥协;危害/vi.妥协;让步/n.妥协
44、,和解;折衷 in the end:终于,最后Who ever could have imagined Ian Paisley and MartinMcGuinness jointly governing Northern Ireland as First andDeputy First Minister?又有谁想象得到 易安佩斯里与马丁麦吉尼斯 以首相和副首相的身份 携手共同领导北爱尔兰政府09:44But then,is Northern Ireland a unique example,or does thiskind of explanation only hold more gene
45、rally in democraticand developed countries?然而，北爱尔兰究竟是个特例？还是这种解释 一般只能套用在 民主与已发展国家上？09:55By no means.绝非如此10:05The ending of Liberias long-lasting civil war in 2003illustrates the importance of leadership,diplomacy andinstitutional design as much as the successful prevention of afull-scale civil war in
46、 Macedonia in 2001,or the successfulending of the conflict in Aceh in Indonesia in 2005.2003年所结束的 利比亚漫长的内战 描绘了 领导力、外交手腕 以及宪法设计的重要性 这三个因素也成功阻止了 2001年马其顿 即将爆发的全面内战以及成功结束了 2005年发生在印尼亚齐地区的冲突10:07In all three cases,local leaders were willing and able to makepeace,the international community stood ready t
47、o helpthem negotiate and implement an agreement,and theinstitutions have lived up to the promise that they held onthe day they were agreed.在这三个案例之中 当地领袖都愿意，也都有能力缔造和平 国际社会也准备好 协助他们谈判与制定协议 宪法制度则实践了 自点头同意那天开始 各党派许诺下的承诺10:31Paisley:adj.涡纹花呢制的;有涡纹图案的/n.有多色涡纹图案的毛织品 jointly:adv.共同地;连带地 governing:adj.有统治,控制
48、或治理权力的/v.统治(govern的ing形式);支配 Deputy:n.代理人，代表/adj.副的；代理的 By no means:决不 long-lasting:adj.持续时间长的 illustrates:v.阐明;举例说明(illustrate的三单形式);给加插图Focusing on leadership,diplomacy and institutional designalso helps explain failures to achieve peace,or to make it last.注重领导力、外交手腕 与制度设计 也选择了无法得到和平或是 和平无法长久维持的原因
49、10:50The hopes that were vested in the Oslo Accords did not leadto an end of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.人们对于奥斯陆协议所赋予的希望 并没有终结 以色列人于巴勒斯坦人的冲突10:59Not all the issues that needed to be resolved were actuallycovered in the agreements.双方需要解决的问题 并没有全部达成协议11:05Rather,local leaders committed to revisit
50、ing them later on.结果，当地领袖承诺 稍后重新协议11:10Yet instead of grasping this opportunity,local andinternational leaders soon disengaged and becamedistracted by the second Intifada,the events of 9/11 and thewars in Afghanistan and Iraq.他们并没有抓住和平的机会 本地领袖与国际领袖不久之后就分道扬镳 并且因为随后的 第二次巴勒斯坦起义、911事件 阿富汗与伊拉克的战争而心烦意乱11: