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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件Thank you so much.(Applause)We live on a human-dominated planet,putting unprecedented pressure on thesystems on Earth.非常感谢 我们生活在一个由人类支配的星球上,我们将前所未有的压力 压在地球的整个系统上?1075100This is bad news,but perhaps surprising to you,its also partof the good news.这有一个坏消息,但也许会让你吃惊,这也算是一个好消息?00:19Were the
2、first generation,thanks to science,to be informedthat we may be undermining the stability and the ability ofplanet Earth to support human development as we know it.感谢科技进步,我们是第一代 知晓我们可能 正在侵蚀着地球的 稳定性和功能性 来维系人类自身发展。00:23Its also good news,because the planetary risks were facingare so large,that busines
3、s as usual is not an option.还有一个好消息,因为我们面临的风险 如此之大,以前的办法已经没有用了。00:34In fact,were in a phase where transformative change isnecessary,which opens the window for innovation,for newideas and new paradigms.实际上,我们处在新的阶段 必须采取变革的阶段,为创新得打开一扇窗,迎接新想法和新模式。00:41This is a scientific journey on the challenges faci
4、ng humanityin the global phase of sustainability.这是一次人类 关于全球可持续发展面临挑战的科学之旅。00:51On this journey,Id like to bring,apart from yourselves,agood friend,a stakeholder,whos always absent when wedeal with the negotiations on environmental issues,astakeholder who refuses to compromise-planet Earth.在这趟旅途中,除了
5、你们,我希望带上 一个好朋友,一位利益相关者但常常被忽视,当我们处理沟通环境问题时,一个拒绝妥协的利益相关者 它就是一颗叫做地球的星球。00:56unprecedented:adj.空前的;无前例的 undermining:n.底蚀作用;潜挖;淘空;底切/v.在下挖坑道;暗中破坏;逐渐损害(undermine的ing形式)/adj.潜挖的;底蚀的 planetary:adj.行星的 as usual:像往常一样;照例 transformative:adj.变化的,变形的;有改革能力的 innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法 paradigms:n.范例,模范(paradigm的复数形式)
6、apart from:除之外;且不说;并且 stakeholder:n.利益相关者;赌金保管者 negotiations:n.谈判(negotiation的复数);磋商 compromise:vt.妥协;危害/vi.妥协;让步/n.妥协,和解;折衷So I thought Id bring her with me today,on stage,to haveher as a witness of a remarkable journey,which humblyreminds us of the period of grace weve had over the past10,000 year
7、s.我原本想把她带上舞台,让她亲眼目睹 这非凡的旅途,同时谨提醒我们 在过去1万年我们所经历过的恩泽 时代。01:10This is the living conditions on the planet over the last100,000 years.这是一个持续了十万年的生机勃勃的星球。01:24Its a very important period.这是一个非常重要的时期。01:27Its roughly half the period when weve been fully modernhumans on the planet.这几乎持续了我们进化成为现代人类一半的时间。01:
8、29Weve had the same,roughly,abilities that developedcivilizations as we know it.我们也大致拥有同样能力来创造 如大家所知发展了文明。01:32This is the environmental conditions on the planet.这是目前星球的状况。01:36Here,used as a proxy,temperature variability.在这我们用温度变化作为一个参考物。01:38It was a jumpy ride.80,000 years back in a crisis,we lea
9、veAfrica,we colonize Australia in another crisis,60,000 yearsback,we leave Asia for Europe in another crisis,40,000 yearsback,and then we enter the remarkably stable Holocenephase,上下波动很大。这是八万年前的危机,我们离开非洲,我们殖民澳洲是 在六万年后的另一次危机中,我们从亚洲来到欧洲是 在四万年前的危机中,我们在那时进入了 相当稳定的全新时代,01:41humbly:adv.谦逊地;卑贱地;低声下气地 civil
10、izations:n.文明(civilization的复数形式)proxy:n.代理人;委托书;代用品variability:n.可变性,变化性;生物数变异性 jumpy:adj.神经质的;跳跃的 colonize:vt.将开拓为殖民地;移于殖民地;从他地非法把选民移入/vi.开拓殖民地;移居于殖民地the only period in the whole history of the planet,that weknow of,that can support human development.也是地球史上前所未有的时代,我们知道,可以维系人类发展的时代。01:57A thousand y
11、ears into this period,we abandon our huntingand gathering patterns.在这1千年发展中,我们放弃了狩猎采集的模式。02:02We go from a couple of million people to the seven billionpeople we are today,The Mesopotamian culture:we inventagriculture,we domesticate animals and plants.我们从几千万人口 发展到如今的70亿人口,美索不达米亚文化:那时我们发明了农业,我们驯化动物和植
12、物。02:07You have the Roman,the Greek and the story as you know it.然后是罗马文明,希腊文明等等众所周知的文明。TED演讲者：Johan Rockstrom|约翰.罗克斯特伦演讲标题：Johan Rockstrom:Let the environment guide our development|让环境引导我们的发展内容概要：Johan Rockstr?m works to redefine sustainable development,and figure out whatneeds to happen.人类发展已经造成地球资
13、源的紧张，但是约翰.罗克斯特伦提醒我们，人类科学技术进步也使我们认识到这一切，并随之改变这种行为。他的研究发现了9大“地球界限”通过这个发现可以指引我们保护地球上息息相关的众多生态系统?You have the Roman,the Greek and the story as you know it.02:15The only phase,as we know it,that can support humanity.我们目前知道地球是唯一 适合人类生存发展文明的地方。02:18The trouble is were putting a quadruple sqeeze on this poo
14、rplanet,a quadruple sqeeze,which,as its first squeeze,haspopulation growth,of course.麻烦的是在这个可怜的星球,我们四面楚歌,这第一面,当然是人口增长。02:22Now,this is not only about numbers.现在不仅是数字上的增长。02:32This is not only about the fact that were seven billion peoplecommitted to nine billion people,its an equity issue as well.不只
15、是70亿到90亿人口这个事实,还涉及到一个公平性的问题。02:34abandon:n.狂热;放任/vt.遗弃;放弃 domesticate:vt.驯养;教化;引进/vi.驯养;使习惯于或喜爱家务和家庭生活 quadruple:adj.四倍的;四重的/vt.使成四倍/vi.成为四倍/n.四倍 squeeze:vt.挤;紧握;勒索/vi.压榨/n.压榨;紧握;拥挤;佣金 equity:n.公平,公正;衡平法;普通股;抵押资产的净值The majority of the environmental impacts on the planethave been caused by the rich m
16、inority,the 20 percent thatjumped onto the industrial bandwagon in the mid-18thcentury.对地球环境产生很大影响的 往往是富裕的少数人,在18世纪的中期,百分之二十的人投身于工业革命中。02:39The majority of the planet,aspiring for development,havingthe right for development,are in large aspiring for anunsustainable lifestyle,a momentous pressure.这星球
17、的大多数国家 渴望发展,有权发展,但这些国家大多在追求一种地球无法承受的生活方式,这是一种巨大的压力。02:47The second pressure on the planet is,of course,the climateagenda,the big issue,where the policy interpretation ofscience is that it would be enough to stabilize greenhousegases at 450 ppm to avoid average temperatures exceedingtwo degrees,to av
18、oid the risk that we may be destabilizingthe West Antarctic Ice Sheet,holding 6 meters-level rising,the risk of destabilizing the Greenland Ice Sheet,holdinganother seven meters-sea level rising.给地球的第二个压力,当然是气候议程,一个大议题,往往科学影响着政策 有观点认为 将温室气体含量稳定在450ppm 从而避免温度 升高超过2度,避免我们失去 南极西部的冰盖层融化,水平面将升高6米的风险,避免格陵
19、兰冰盖融化的风险,这会造成海平面再上升7米。02:56impacts:n.影响(impact的复数);力冲击/v.压紧;冲撞;对产生不良影响(impact的三单形式)bandwagon:n.流行,时尚;乐队花车 aspiring:adj.有抱负的;追求的;高耸的/v.立志(aspire的ing形式)unsustainable:adj.无法支撑的;不可证实的;不能成立的 momentous:adj.重要的;重大的 stabilize:vt.使稳固,使安定/vi.稳定,安定 ppm:abbr.百万分率,百万分之(partspermillion)exceeding:adj.超越的;非常的;过度的/v
20、.超过;占优势(exceed的ing形式)destabilizing:减稳Now,you would have wished the climate pressure to hit astrong planet,a resilient planet,but unfortunately,the thirdpressure is the ecosystem decline.现在,你们会指望 这个强大的,能承受强压力的星球来抵御气候压力,但是,不幸的是,还有第三种压力是生态系统的衰落。03:19Never have we seen,in the past 50 years,such a sharpd
21、ecline of ecosystem functions and services on the planet,one of them being the ability to regulate climate on the longterm,in our forests,land and biodiversity.在过去50年中,我们从没有见过 生态系统在这颗星球上的作用和影响 如此急剧的衰落,他们当中有种能力是长期调整 影响森林,土地和生物多样性的气候。03:27The forth pressure is surprise,the notion and the evidencethat
22、we need to abandon our old paradigm,that ecosystemsbehave linearly,predictably,controllably in our,so to say,linear systems,and that,in fact,surprise is universal,assystems tip over very rapidly,abruptly and often irreversibly.第四种压力是不同性,概念和证据 那就是我们必须放弃我们老套的模式,那就是可以这么说,在我们线性系统旧模式中,生态系统表现是线性的,是可以预见的,是
23、可控制的,那就是,实际上,不同性就是共同性,随着系统迅速地,突然地 往往也是不可逆转的破坏。03:40This,dear friends,poses a human pressure on the planet ofmomentous scale.亲爱的朋友们,这是对地球大规模地 施加压力。03:58resilient:adj.弹回的,有弹力的 ecosystem:n.生态系统 biodiversity:n.生物多样性 paradigm:n.范例;词形变化表ecosystems:n.生态系统(ecosystem的复数)linearly:adv.成直线地;在线上地 predictably:adv
24、.可预言地 so to say:可以这么说 linear:adj.线的，线型的；直线的，线状的；长度的 abruptly:adv.突然地;唐突地 poses:姿势We may,in fact,have entered a new geological era,theAnthropocene,where humans are the predominant driver ofchange at a planetary level.我们可能,实际上,已经进入了一个新的地质时代,人类世,指的是人类是在行星级别中造成变化 的主要驱动。04:04Now,as a scientist,whats the
25、evidence for this?现在,作为一名科学家,有什么证据呢？04:13Well,the evidence is,unfortunately,ample.证据是,不幸的是,太多了。04:17Its not only carbon dioxide that has this hockey stickpattern of accelerated change.不仅仅是二氧化碳 极大地加速了变化的进程。04:21You can take virtually any parameter that matters for humanwell-being-nitrous oxide,methan
26、e,deforestation,overfishing land degredation,loss of species-they all showthe same pattern over the past 200 years.你几乎可以把任何参数 跟人类相关的任何参数-一氧化二氮,甲烷,砍伐森林,过度捕捞,土地退化,物种的灭绝-它们都证明了过去的200年中 同一种模式。04:26Simultaneously,they branch off in the mid-50s,10 yearsafter the second world war,showing very clearly that
27、thegreat acceleration of the human enterprise starts in the mid-与此同时,在50年代中期,第二次世界大战后的10年,非常清楚的证明了在50年代中期伟大的人类事业 开始加速提高。04:42great acceleration of the human enterprise starts in the mid-50s.geological:adj.地质的,地质学的 predominant:adj.主要的；卓越的；支配的；有力的；有影响的 ample:adj.丰富的;足够的;宽敞的 dioxide:n.二氧化物 hockey:n.曲棍球
28、;冰球 accelerated:adj.加速的;加快的/v.加速;促进(accelerate的变形)well-being:n.幸福;康乐 nitrous:adj.氮的;硝石的;含氮的 oxide:n.化学氧化物 methane:n.有化甲烷;能源沼气deforestation:n.采伐森林;森林开伐 overfishing:n.渔捞过度/vt.过度捕捞(overfish的现在分词)Simultaneously:adv.同时地 acceleration:n.加速,促进;物加速度You see,for the first time,an imprint on the global level.你看
29、,第一次,在全球范围内的一个印记。04:53And I can tell you,you enter the disciplinary research in eachof these,you find something remarkably important,theconclusion that we may have come to the point where wehave to bend the curves,我可以告诉你,当你开始研究这每一个学科,你会发现一些非常重要的东西,结果是我们可能已经到达了 必须改变曲线走向程度,04:56that we may have entere
30、d the most challenging and excitingdecade in the history humanity on the planet,the decadewhen we have to bend the curves.在地球上整个人类的历史中,我们可能已经进入了最富有挑战性和刺激性的时代,一个我们必须改变曲线走向的时代。05:08Now,as if this was not enough-to just bend the curves andunderstanding the accelerated pressure on the planet-wealso have
31、 to recognize the fact that systems do have multiplestable states,现在,仿佛这还不够-仅仅是改变曲线走向和了解到这颗星球上的急剧增加的压力-我们也要意识到一个事实 那就是系统有多种稳定状态,05:17separated by thresholds-illustrated here by this ball andcup diagram,where the depth of the cup is the resilience ofthe system.在曲线上由一个个槛区分开来-我在这个用球杯图来表示,杯子的深度代表了系统的适应能
32、力。05:27Now,the system may gradually-under pressure of climatechange,erosion,biodiversity loss-lose the depth of thecup,the resilience,but appear to be healthy and appear tosuddenly,under a threshold,be tipping over.Upff.现在,系统逐渐地-受到气候变化,侵蚀,生物多样性丧失的压力-于是杯子的深度开始减少,也就是系统适应能力降低,但似乎是健康的 也似乎是突然间,经过一个槛后,又跌落
33、到某一界限下了。哦。05:33imprint:n.印记;痕迹;特征;版本说明/vt.加特征;刻上记号 disciplinary:adj.规律的;训练的;训诫的 come to the point:直截了当地说;扼要地说 curves:n.数曲线;弯曲状(curve的复数形式)/v.弯曲;使弯曲(curve的第三人称单数)thresholds:n.阈值;建门槛;临界值值(threshold的复数)illustrated:n.有插画的报章杂志/adj.有插图的/v.阐明;举例说明;给加插图(illustrate的过去分词)resilience:n.恢复力;弹力;顺应力 erosion:n.侵蚀，腐
34、蚀 threshold:n.入口;门槛;开始;极限;临界值tipping:n.倾卸台/adj.倾翻的;倾卸的/v.使倾斜;轻拍;踮起脚走(tip的ing形式)Sorry.Changing state and literally ending up in an undesiredsituation,where new biophysical logic takes over,newspecies take over,and the system gets locked.抱歉。改变了原有状态 确实滑落到 一个出乎意料的状态,从那里开始,新的生物物理逻辑开始运作,新的物种开始出现,系统再次平衡。05
35、:48Do we have evidence of this?Yes,coral reef systems.我们有证据吗？是的,珊瑚礁系统。06:02Biodiverse,low-nutrient,hard coral systems under multiplepressures of overfishing,unsustainable tourism,climatechange.生物的多样,低养份,硬珊瑚系统 在过渡捕捞,不可持续的旅游业,气候变化等多重压力下。06:06A trigger and the system tips over,loses its resilience,soft
36、corals take over,and we get undesired systems that cannotsupport economic and social development.系统的崩溃一触即发,失去了它的适应能力,从而软珊瑚取而代之,留给我们一个我们出乎意料的系统 一个不能维系经济和社会发展的系统。06:14The Arctic,a beautiful system,a regulating biome at theplanetary level,taking the knock after knock on climatechange,appearing to be in
37、 a good state.北极,一个美丽的生态系统,我们地球上一个有调节作用的生物群落 受到气候变化的一次次冲击,看上去似乎还可以。06:24No scientist could predict that in 2007,suddenly,what couldbe crossing a threshold.没有科学家能够预测在2007年 突然间,有什么能够跨越这个界限槛。06:33www.XiYuS锡育软件The system suddenly,very surprisingly,loses 30 to 40percent of its summer ice cover.生态系统突然间,非常
38、出人意料地,失去了百分之三十到四十 的夏季冰覆盖率。06:38Biodiverse:生物多类状态的/生物多样的 corals:n.无脊椎珊瑚(coral的复数)regulating:vt.调节;校正(regulate的现在分词)biome:n.生态生物群系;生态生物群落区 knock on:撞击撞出;敲击(门,窗)appearing:n.印刷版面高度/v.出现,显得(appear的ing形式)And the drama is,of course,that,when the system does this,the logic may change.当然,具有戏剧效果的是,当生态系统发生了变化,
39、其中的逻辑也跟着变化。06:42It may get locked in an undesired state,because it changescolor,absorbs more energy,and the system may get stuck.这可能锁定了一种不希望的状态,因为它改变了颜色,吸收了更多的能量,系统可能陷入困境。06:46In my mind,the largest red flag warning for humanity thatwe are in a precarious situation.我认为,对于人类来说最大的一面红旗警示是 我们处在一个岌岌可危的时期
40、。06:52As a sideline,you know that the only red flag that poppedup here was a submarine from an unnamed country thatplanted a red flag at the bottom of the Arctic to be able tocontrol the oil resources.顺便说一下,你知道在那里的唯一一个红色旗 是一架从一个不知名国家来的潜水艇 在北极底部插上一面红旗 从而得以控制石油资源。06:58Now,if we have evidence,which we
41、now have,that wetlands,现在,如果我们有证据,我们现在有了,湿地,森林,07:09Now,if we have evidence,which we now have,that wetlands,forests,林,07:09unclear,the rainforests,behave in this nonlinear way.热带雨林,不是按照线性方式运作。07:1430 or so scientists around the world gathered and asked aquestion for the first time,Do we have to put
42、the planet intothe the pot?全世界大约有30名科学家 聚在一起,第一次问了一个问题,“我们要把这星球陷入困境吗？”07:18absorbs:v.吸收;吸引的注意(absorb的第三人称单数形式)precarious:adj.危险的;不确定的 sideline:n.副业;球场边线;局外人的观点/vt.迫使退出/adj.倾斜的 popped:adj.被警察局拘押的;被逮捕的/v.突然爆开;突然地出现;取出(pop的过去分词)submarine:n.潜水艇;海底生物/adj.海底的;水下的/vt.用潜水艇攻击/vi.在下疾行;在下滑动 unnamed:adj.无名的;未命名
43、的;未提及的 wetlands:n.湿地(wetland的复数形式);沼泽地;塘地 rainforests:n.(热带)雨林 nonlinear:adj.非线性的So we have to ask ourselves:are we threatening thisextraordinarily stable Holocene state?所以,我们必须问自己:我们正在威胁这个非常稳定的全新世界吗？07:24Are we in fact putting ourselves in a situation where werecoming too close to thresholds that c
44、ould lead todeleterious and very undesired,if now catastrophic,changefor human development?我们真的要将我们自己置于一个困境？我们即将接近 下一个界限而可能引向 有害的,我们极不希望看到的,好比现在灾难性的 为人类发展而做的改变。07:30You know,you dont want to stand there.要知道,你并不希望站在那里。07:42In fact,youre not even allowed to stand where thisgentleman is standing,at the
45、 foaming,slippery waters at thethreshold.实际上,根本不允许你站在那里 那是这位绅士站着的地方,在那个槛,湿滑的水冒着泡。07:44In fact,theres a fence quite upstream of this threshold,beyond which you are in a danger zone.实际上,在这个界限的高处 有个护栏,在危险区之上。07:51And this is the new paradigm,which we gathered two,threeyears back,recognizing that our ol
46、d paradigm of justanalyzing and pushing and predicting parameters into thefuture,aiming at minimalizing environmental impacts,is ofthe past.这是个新的模式,根据我们过去的两、三年收集的信息,我们发现我们旧的模式 仅仅是分析、引用和预测 影响未来的参数,目标是减小环境的冲击,那是过去式。07:57extraordinarily:adv.非常;格外地;非凡地 lead to:导致;通向 deleterious:adj.有毒的,有害的 catastrophic:
47、adj.灾难的;悲惨的;灾难性的,毁灭性的 foaming:n.发泡,泡沫形成/v.起泡沫(foam的ing形式)upstream:adv.逆流地;向上游/adj.向上游的;逆流而上的/n.上游部门 recognizing:v.认识;承认;察觉(recognize的ing形式)/n.认识;承认/adj.认识的;识别的 predicting:v.预测(predict的ing形式);预报;预言Now we to ask ourselves:which are the large environmentalprocesses that we have to be stewards of to kee
48、p ourselvessafe in the Holocene?现在,我们问我们自己:哪个是最大的环境进程 我们必须要管的 以保证我们自己在全新世的安全？08:10And could we even,thanks to major advancements in Earthsystems science,identify the thresholds,the points where wemay expect nonlinear change?我们甚至可以 感谢地球系统科学的重大发展,发现这些一个个槛,我们所期望的非线性变化的界限点？08:18And could we even define
49、a planetary boundary,a fence,within which we then have a safe operating space forhumanity?我们甚至能定义 地球界限,一个护栏,通过这些,我们人类就可以有个安全的工作空间吗？08:27This work,which was published in Nature,在2009年底,“自然”杂志上发表的这个项目08:35late 2009,after a number of years of analysis,led to the finalproposition,that we can only find n
50、ine planetary boundarieswith which,under active stewardship,would allow ourselvesto have a safe operating space.经过数年的分析,终于得出最后的提议,那就是我们只能够找到 九个地球界限 在积极领导下,可能允许我们自己有个安全的工作空间。08:37These include,of course,climate.这包括了,当然的,气候。08:54It may surprise you that its not only climate.你可能觉得惊奇,不仅仅是气候。08:56But it