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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件In two weeks time,thats the ninth anniversary of the day Ifirst stepped out onto that hallowed Jeopardy set.再过两个星期,就是我第一次上电视 玩危险 游戏的九周年纪念。00:12I mean,nine years is a long time.九年是个很漫长的时间。00:19And given Jeopardys average demographics,I think whatthat means is most of the people who saw m
2、e on that showare now dead.鉴于危险观众的平均年龄,我想这意味着 大多数在那个节目上看到我的人现在已经死了。00:20(Laughter)But not all,a few are still alive.（笑声）但并不是所有的观众都过世了,还有人健在。00:27Occasionally I still get recognized at the mall or whatever.偶尔仍然有人 在商场或其它地方认出我。00:30And when I do,its as a bit of a know-it-all.他们仍记得我是万事通。00:33I think tha
3、t ship has sailed,its too late for me.我认为木已成舟,为时已晚。00:36For better or for worse,thats what Im going to be known as,as the guy who knew a lot of weird stuff.不管我喜欢不喜欢,我就这么被定型了 永远是那个知道很多稀奇古怪事情的家伙。00:38And I cant complain about this.我对此并无怨言。00:44I feel like that was always sort of my destiny,although I
4、hadfor many years been pretty deeply in the trivia closet.我觉得那好似始终都是我的命运 尽管多年来我一直沉迷在掌握百科知识。00:46stepped:v.踏;行走(step的过去式和过去分词)hallowed:adj.神圣的,神圣化的 Jeopardy:n.危险;(被告处于被判罪或受处罚的)危险境地 demographics:n.人口统计资料 a bit of a:一点,有点,有些;相当后接名词,常指不愉快的人或事 know-it-all:adj.自称无所不知的/n.假装博学多闻的人(等于knowall)sailed:v.航行(sail
5、的过去分词)/adj.已开航的 complain about:抱怨 trivia:n.琐事If nothing else,you realize very quickly as a teenager,it is nota hit with girls to know Captain Kirks middle name.别的不说,作为一名少年,你很快就意识到 知道科克船长的中名,并不能吸引女孩们的眼球。00:52(Laughter)And as a result,I was sort of the deeply closetedkind of know-it-all for many years
6、.（笑声）也因此,有很多年,我一直是活在自己世界里的万事通。00:58But if you go further back,if you look at it,its all there.但是,如果倒转时光,你就会发现,其实线索都在01:03I was the kind of kid who was always bugging Mom and Dadwith whatever great fact I had just read about-我小时候就总是缠着妈妈爸爸 打听任何我那时刚刚读到任何信息 01:06Haleys comet or giant squids or the size
7、of the worldsbiggest pumpkin pie or whatever it was.哈雷彗星或巨型鱿鱼 或是世界上最大的南瓜饼,不管什么事儿。01:12I now have a 10-year-old of my own whos exactly the same.我现在有个 10 多岁的孩子,和我像极了。01:18And I know how deeply annoying it is,so karma does work.现在我知道被人无休止地追问是多么讨厌的事儿,真是报应。01:21(Laughter)And I loved game shows,fascinated
8、 with gameshows.（笑声）我喜欢游戏节目,迷上了游戏节目。01:25I remember crying on my first day of kindergarten back in1979 because it had just hit me,as badly as I wanted to go toschool,that I was also going to miss Hollywood Squares andFamily Feud.我记得,在 1979 年,上幼儿园的第一天,我大哭 因为我意识到,虽然我喜欢上学,但也会错过好莱坞广场和家庭宿怨两个游戏节目。01:30Kir
9、k:n.教会;苏格兰教会 closeted:adj.私下密谈的/v.私下密谈(closet的过去式和过去分词)comet:n.天彗星 squids:n.鱿鱼(squid的复数)karma:n.因果报应,因缘 Squares:n.广场;数正方形(square的复数形式);方钢;直角尺/v.使成直角;使符合的要求(square的第三人称单数形式)Feud:n.不和;争执;封地/vi.长期不和;长期争斗I was going to miss my game shows.我会错过我的游戏节目。01:39And later,in the mid-80s,when Jeopardy came back o
10、n theair,I remember running home from school every day towatch the show.后来,在八十年代中期,危险游戏又重新开播,我记得每天从学校跑回家观看。01:43It was my favorite show,even before it paid for my house.早在我用这个节目支付的报酬购买房子之前,它就是我最喜欢的电视游戏节目。01:50And we lived overseas,we lived in South Korea where my dadwas working,where there was only
11、one English language TVchannel.再说,当时,我们在海外居住,在韩国,我爸爸工作的地方,那里只有一个英语电视频道。01:56There was Armed Forces TV,and if you didnt speak Korean,电视上有武装部队节目 如果你不会说韩语,那就是唯一看得懂的电视台。02:01TED演讲者：Ken Jennings|肯.詹宁斯演讲标题：Ken Jennings:Watson,Jeopardy and me,the obsolete know-it-all|沃森，“危险”游戏和我-过气的“百事通”内容概要：Ken Jennings h
12、olds the record for most consecutive wins on the classic Americantrivia game show,Jeopardy.“百事通”肯.詹宁斯以记忆百科知识为职业。他是美国“危险”电视游戏大赛的常胜冠军。但是2001年，在对抗超级计算机-沃森的竞赛中，他输了。在这个演说中，他诙谐且谦卑地向我们讲述了他在最擅长的游戏中被计算机打败的感受，并且以此说明人类传统知识的重要性。(录制于TEDx西雅图大学)There was Armed Forces TV,and if you didnt speak Korean,thats what you
13、 were watching.唯一看得懂的电视台。02:01So me and all my friends would run home every day andwatch Jeopardy.所以,我和我所有的朋友,每天跑回家看危险游戏。02:04I was always that kind of obsessed trivia kid.我总是那种痴迷百科知识的孩子。02:08I remember being able to play Trivial Pursuit against myparents back in the 80s and holding my own,back when
14、that was a fad.我记得,在八十年代,和父母玩儿琐细的追求,当时是很时髦的,我水平不错,可以抗衡我父母。02:11Theres a weird sense of mastery you get when you knowsome bit of boomer trivia that Mom and Dad dont know.当你知道一些妈妈和爸爸不知道的冷僻事儿,就会有种奇妙的优越感。02:19You know some Beatles factoid that Dad didnt know.当你知道一些爸爸都不知道的关于披头士的传闻,02:24on the air:在广播,广播中
15、 fad:n.时尚;一时的爱好;一时流行的狂热 mastery:n.掌握;精通;优势;征服;统治权 boomer:n.生育高峰中出生的人;赶往新兴地区安家的人;发出隆隆声者;发育完全的雄袋鼠 Beatles:n.披头士合唱(摇滚乐队)factoid:n.仿真陈述(仅因出现在出版物上而被信以为真)/adj.虚构的;似是而非的And you think,ah hah,knowledge really is power-the rightfact deployed at exactly the right place.你会想,啊哈,知识就是力量 知识的力量就在于恰到好处地运用正确的知识。02:27I
16、 never had a guidance counselor who thought this was alegitimate career path,that thought you could major in triviaor be a professional ex-game show contestant.从来没有那个指导顾问告诉我 主修百科知识 或者是前专业游戏节目参赛者 可以当作正当的职业。02:38And so I sold out way too young.我太年青,受人左右。02:48I didnt try to figure out what one does wit
17、h that.没有试图搞清楚如何发挥特长,02:50I studied computers because I heard that was the thing,and Ibecame a computer programmer-not an especially goodone,not an especially happy one at the time when I was firston Jeopardy in 2004.而是随大流,学了计算机,当了计算机程序员,表现尚可,虽然并不是特别突出。2004年,第一次上电视游戏节目危险那时的我对生活也不满意02:51But thats wha
18、t I was doing.可是当时那就是我的职业03:03And it made it doubly ironic-my computer background-a few years later,I think 2009 or so,when I got anotherphone call from Jeopardy saying,Its early days yet,but IBMtells us they want to build a supercomputer to beat you atJeopardy.我的电脑背景 是个双重讽刺。几年后,我记得大概是2009年,危险游戏节目组
19、给我打电话说,现在为时尚早,但 IBM 告诉我们,他们想要建造一台超级计算机,与你竞赛危险游戏。03:04hah:int.哈,嘿 deployed:v.部署(deploy的过去式);展开 counselor:n.顾问;法律顾问;参事(等于counsellor)legitimate:adj.合法的；正当的；合理的；正统的/vt.使合法；认为正当(等于legitimize)contestant:n.竞争者;争辩者 doubly:adv.双重地;加倍地;双摺地 ironic:adj.讽刺的;反话的 supercomputer:n.计巨型计算机,超级计算机Are you up for this?你接受
20、吗?03:21This was the first Id heard of it.这是我第一次听说人机竞赛。03:22And of course I said yes,for several reasons.当然,我答应了。原因有几个,03:24One,because playing Jeopardy is a great time.第一,因为我享受玩危险。03:27Its fun.Its the most fun you can have with your pants on.它充满乐趣。除了做爱,玩危险是最令人开心的。03:29(Laughter)And I would do it for
21、 nothing.（笑声）我可以分文不收。03:33I dont think they know that luckily,but I would go back andplay for Arbys coupons.幸好,我想他们不知道,可是麦当劳优惠券就足以让我去了。03:36I just love Jeopardy,and I always have.我就是爱玩危险,我一直都是这样。03:41And second of all,because Im a nerdy guy and this seemedlike the future.还有因为我是个书呆子,而这看似是我的未来。03:43Pe
22、ople playing computers on game shows was the kind ofthing I always imagined would happen in the future,and nowI could be on the stage with it.我一直认为 人机在电视游戏节目上对抗 是未来的趋势 而且现在,我真的可以和计算机玩游戏了,在电视上,03:47I was not going to say no.我怎么能说不呢。03:54The third reason I said yes is because I was pretty confidenttha
23、t I was going to win.第三个原因,是因为,我很有信心自己会赢。03:55I had taken some artificial intelligence classes.我上过一些人工智能课。03:59coupons:n.优惠券;息票;化工取样片(coupon的复数)nerdy:adj.书呆子式的/n.令人厌烦的人 on the stage:在舞台上;现阶段;当演员I knew there were no computers that could do what you needto do to win on Jeopardy.04:01www.XiYuS锡育软件Peopl
24、e dont realize how tough it is to write that kind ofprogram that can read a Jeopardy clue in a natural languagelike English and understand all the double meanings,thepuns,the red herrings,unpack the meaning of the clue.危险中的线索是用人类语言表述的,比如英语,它含有双关、相似字、隐语,编写计算程序来解谜这样的线索 是十分艰难的。04:05The kind of thing th
25、at a three-or four-year-old human,little三、四岁小孩子能做的事 对计算机来说是很难的。04:18The kind of thing that a three-or four-year-old human,littlekid could do,very hard for a computer.的。04:18And I thought,well this is going to be childs play.所以,我以为我会赢的轻而易举。04:25Yes,I will come destroy the computer and defend my speci
26、es.是的,我会打败计算机,捍卫我的种群。04:28(Laughter)But as the years went on,as IBM started throwingmoney and manpower and processor speed at this,（笑声）但随着岁月的流逝,IBM 开始投入大笔金钱、人力和高速芯片。04:33I started to get occasional updates from them,and I startedto get a little more worried.他们偶尔给我一些最新动态,我开始多一点担心。04:40win on:影响;胜过 me
27、anings:n.含义;价值(meaning的复数)puns:n.双关语(pun的复数)herrings:鲱 unpack:vt.卸下;解除的负担/vi.打开包裹 manpower:n.人力;人力资源;劳动力 processor:n.计处理器;处理程序;加工者 updates:n.升级,更新;补充资料(update复数形式)/v.更新;变更(update的单三形式)I remember a journal article about this new questionanswering software that had a graph.我记得有一篇杂志文章,专门讨论这台玩文字游戏的计算机,并
28、附了一个图表,04:44It was a scatter chart showing performance on Jeopardy,tensof thousands of dots representing Jeopardy champions upat the top with their performance plotted on number of-是一个散点图,绘制危险参赛者的成绩 在图表的顶部,数以万计的圆点代表危险冠军的成绩他们的成绩是由-我本想说是-答对问题的数目,04:50I was going to say questions answered,but answersqu
29、estioned,I guess,clues responded to-versus theaccuracy of those answers.但我觉得应该是被“质疑”的答案,反正就是将参赛者给予的答案 与那些答案的准确性来做衡量。05:00So theres a certain performance level that the computerwould need to get to.所以,计算机性能必须要达到一定水平05:08And at first,it was very low.刚开始时,它是非常低的。05:12There was no software that could co
30、mpete at this kind ofarena.没有哪个软件可以在这样的舞台上竞争。05:14But then you see the line start to go up.但是,后来那条线开始上升。05:17And its getting very close to what they call the winnerscloud.而它非常接近所谓的“优胜者区域05:19And I noticed in the upper right of the scatter chart somedarker dots,some black dots,that were a different c
31、olor.我注意到在散点图的右上角 有一些较暗的点,一些黑点,那是另一种颜色。05:22scatter:vi.分散,散开;散射/vt.使散射;使散开,使分散;使散播,使撒播/n.分散;散播,撒播 representing:v.代表;表示,表现(represent的ing形式)champions:n.冠军(champion的复数形式);夺标;盟主/v.拥护,保卫(champion的三单形式)responded:v.回答,回报;反应(respond的过去分词)versus:prep.对；与.相对；对抗 arena:n.舞台;竞技场And thought,what are these?我想,这是什么
32、？05:29The black dots in the upper right represent 74-timeJeopardy champion Ken Jennings.中右上角的黑点代表 74 次危险冠军肯.詹宁斯。05:31And I saw this line coming for me.那条代表计算机的线,朝我而来。05:35And I realized,this is it.我意识到,这下完了。05:37This is what it looks like when the future comes for you.这看起来就像大限将近。05:38(Laughter)Its n
33、ot the Terminators gun sight;its a little linecoming closer and closer to the thing you can do,the onlything that makes you special,the thing youre best at.（笑声）它不是终结者的瞄准器;这是一条细线,逼近你的智力 你的特长,最擅长的事。05:40And when the game eventually happened about a year later,it was very different than the Jeopardy ga
34、mes Id been usedto.最终,大约一年后,游戏开播。它和以往危险游戏非常不同。05:52We were not playing in L.A.on the regular Jeopardy set.通常我们在洛杉矶玩,05:59Watson does not travel.但电脑沃森不能旅行。06:02Watsons actually huge.实际上,沃森体积庞大。06:04Its thousands of processors,a terabyte of memory,trillionsof bytes of memory.它有数以千计的芯片,内存高达一兆兆字节,数万亿字节的
35、内存。06:05Ken:n.视野范围,见地,知识范围 Terminator:n.终结者;终止子;明暗界限 different than:不同于 processors:n.计处理器,计处理机(processor复数)terabyte:n.太字节;兆兆位(量度信息单位)trillions:n.数万亿/adj.万亿的/num.数万亿bytes:n.计字节;位元组,字节数(byte的复数)We got to walk through his climate-controlled server room.我们要走进有气候控制的服务器室。06:11The only other Jeopardy conte
36、stant to this day Ive ever beeninside.直到今天 沃森是里面唯一一个危险选手。06:13And so Watson does not travel.所以,沃森不能旅行。06:17You must come to it;you must make the pilgrimage.你必须来见它;您必须来”朝拜“。06:20So me and the other human player wound up at this secretIBM research lab in the middle of these snowy woods inWestchester C
37、ounty to play the computer.所以我和其他人类玩家 集聚在这个秘密的 IBM 研究实验室 在威彻斯特县的雪域森林中 和电脑玩危险游戏。06:24And we realized right away that the computer had a bighome court advantage.我们马上意识到 沃森有巨大的主场优势06:34There was a big Watson logo in the middle of the stage.在舞台中央,有一个大的沃森徽标。06:39There was a big Watson logo in the middle
38、of the stage.Like youre going to play the Chicago Bulls,and theres thething in the middle of their court.就好像你要和芝加哥公牛队比赛,在他们的球场,会有一个公牛队的标志。06:41And the crowd was full of IBM V.P.s and programmerscheering on their little darling,having poured millions ofdollars into this hoping against hope that the h
39、umans screwup,and holding up Go Watson signs and just applaudinglike pageant moms every time their little darling got oneright.观众席上,坐满了 IBM 副总裁和程序员 给他们的小宝贝加油,在投入数以百万计的美元后 他们希望人类输 他们高举 沃森加油 的标语,就像选美妈妈一样,每次他们亲爱的小闺女答对一个问题,他们就鼓掌。06:46climate-controlled:气象学气候控制 to this day:至今 pilgrimage:n.漫游;朝圣之行/vi.朝拜;漫
40、游 snowy:adj.下雪的,多雪的;被雪覆盖的;洁白无瑕的 right away:立刻 poured:n.倾泻;流出;骤雨/vt.灌,注;倒;倾泻;倾吐/vi.倾泻;涌流;斟茶 screwup:拧紧;鼓舞;弄糟;狠狠地提高 holding up:举起;阻挡;拦截(holdup的现在分词形式)applauding:vt.赞同;称赞;向喝采/vi.喝彩;鼓掌欢迎 pageant:n.盛会;游行;虚饰;露天表演 moms:abbr.密西根数学系统(MichigansOwnMathematicalSystem)I think guys had W-A-T-S-O-N written on thei
41、r bellies ingrease paint.我看到男员工们用油脂漆在他们的肚子上写上 W-A-T-S-O-N（沃森）的名字。07:03If you can imagine computer programmers with the lettersW-A-T-S-O-N written on their gut,its an unpleasant sight.想象一下,计算机程序员将 W-A-T-S-O-N（沃森）写在肚皮上,怪恶心的。07:09But they were right.They were exactly right.但,他们对了。他们完全正确。07:16I dont wan
42、t to spoil it,if you still have this sitting on yourDVR,but Watson won handily.如果你还没看过这次比赛的录像,我不想扫兴,但沃森赢得轻而易举。07:19And I remember standing there behind the podium as Icould hear that little insectoid thumb clicking.我记得站在舞台的后面 当我听到那小昆虫机器人敲击蜂音器。07:25It had a robot thumb that was clicking on the buzzer
43、.机器人有一个拇指,可以敲击蜂鸣器。07:30And you could hear that little tick,tick,tick,tick.你能听到嘀嗒、嘀嗒、嘀嗒、嘀嗒。07:34And I remember thinking,this is it.我记得当时在想,完了。07:38I felt obsolete.我过时了。07:40I felt like a Detroit factory worker of the 80s seeing a robotthat could now do his job on the assembly line.我觉得自己像个八十年代底特律工厂的工人
44、 眼睁睁看着生产线上的机器人代替他工作。07:42bellies:n.腹部(belly的复数);胴网;腹部羊毛 grease:vt.涂脂于;贿赂/n.油脂;贿赂 gut:n.内脏;肠子;剧情;胆量;海峡;勇气;直觉;肠/vt.取出内脏;摧毁(建筑物等)的内部/adj.简单的;本质的,根本的;本能的,直觉的 handily:adv.方便地;敏捷地;灵巧地podium:n.乐队指挥台;矮墙;墩座墙 buzzer:n.蜂鸣器;嗡嗡作声的东西;信号手 tick:vt.标记号于;滴答地记录/n.滴答声;扁虱;记号;赊欠/vi.发出滴答声;标以记号 obsolete:adj.废弃的;老式的/n.废词;陈腐
45、的人/vt.淘汰;废弃 assembly:n.装配；集会，集合I felt like quiz show contestant was now the first job that hadbecome obsolete under this new regime of thinkingcomputers.我觉得,在当下,知识测验节目参赛者也已经,被这个具有思维能力的计算机淘汰了。07:48And it hasnt been the last.这样的事还会再重演。07:57If you watch the news,youll see occasionally-and I see thisall
46、 the time-that pharmacists now,theres a machine thatcan fill prescriptions automatically without actually needinga human pharmacist.如果你看新闻,偶尔,你会看到 我是经常看到这样的新闻的 比如药剂师,现在有一种机器,可以自动按处方配药 不需要药剂师的干预。07:59And a lot of law firms are getting rid of paralegals becausetheres software that can sum up case laws
47、 and legal briefsand decisions.很多的律师事务所律师解雇专职助手 因为软件可以总结案件、法律摘要和决定。08:10You dont need human assistants for that anymore.他们不再需要人类助理了。08:17I read the other day about a program where you feed it abox score from a baseball or football game and it spits out anews article as if a human had watched the gam
48、e and wascommenting on it.前几天,我读到一篇关于程序的报道,如果你给它输入 足球手或棒球员的个人成绩表,它就能吐出一篇新闻文章,就好像它真看过比赛 然后像人一样的点评那场比赛。08:19regime:n.政权,政体;社会制度;管理体制 pharmacists:n.药剂师(pharmacist的复数)prescriptions:n.医药处方,医药方(prescription复数形式)automatically:adv.自动地;机械地;无意识地/adj.不经思索的 pharmacist:n.药剂师 paralegals:n.律师帮办;律师的专职助手/adj.辅助律师业务的
49、 sum up:总结;概述;计算的总数 assistants:n.管理助理,助教,店员;辅佐人(assistant的复数形式)the other day:不久前某一天;几天以前 spits:vi.吐痰;吐口水;发出劈啪声/vt.吐,吐出;发出;发射/n.唾液 commenting:评论/注解/说明(comment的现在分词)And obviously these new technologies cant do as clever orcreative a job as the humans theyre replacing,but theyrefaster,and crucially,the
50、yre much,much cheaper.很明显,这些新技术与被取代的人类比起来 它们不能做创造性的工作,也没有人类聪明 但它们速度更快,至关重要的是,它们非常、非常便宜。08:28So it makes me wonder what the economic effects of thismight be.所以,这使得我很好奇:这些技术的究竟如何影响经济。08:38Ive read economists saying that,as a result of these newtechnologies,well enter a new golden age of leisure whenwe