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1、經濟學與經濟學人的挑戰經濟學與經濟學人的挑戰美國的貨幣改策為例 Challenge to Economics/EconomistsThe case of US monetary policy國立臺灣大學經濟學系演講華而誠教授世新大學管理學院經濟系2005.10.20 Outline Outline 大綱大綱Economics has become the most popular major in the universities of the United States and why?But this does not say economics is an easy science.On
2、 the contrary,economics has never met greater challenges as it tries to address an increasing array of questions posted by rapid technological progress and the integration of global markets(globalization).The conduct of the US monetary policy is a case in point.I.Facts about popularity of EconomicsU
3、.S.colleges and universities awarded 16,141 degrees to economics majors in the 2003-2004 academic year,up nearly 40%from five years earlier;Economics is the most popular major at Harvard University,Columbia University,University of Chicago,and other well-known schools;andThe rising popularity of the
4、 economics major appears to be a global phenomenon:the share of degrees in economics and business awarded in Poland from 1996 to 2002 more than doubled,to 36%from 16%;in Russia,the share jumped to 31%from 18%(McKinsey Global Institute).Why,the popularity?Wide application of economics to issues of so
5、cietal concerns:inflation,economic growth,equity公平;sustainable development可持續發展;economic globalization全球化,immigration;competitiveness競爭力;de-regulation(power,telecom,banking);AIDs,terrorism,corruption,sumo wrestling,etc,(“Freakonomics,”Steven Levitt,University of Chicago);Economics mode of reasoning
6、can help to analyze a wide range of issues(Harvard University President,Mr.Summers);It is the world we are currently operating in needs the basic framework of economics,even though learning it can be very frustrating;and,of course,Good pay after graduation;job not threatened by China and India.II.Ch
7、allenge to economics Economic theory is built upon the past“regularity”as much as the laws in natural sciences.However,economics is an imperfect science since its object of study-human economic behavior even presumed to be rationale,which has been challenged lately,cannot be modeled and predicted wi
8、th precision.Rapid structural change and technological progress,and the integration of global markets render economic behavior even more difficult to predict.The lack of predictive power tilts economics toward an art,away from science.Challenge to economists is greaterIf economics has its shortcomin
9、gs,its application by economists is even more treacherous.“Economic principles”often does not delve much into the“political economy”or the“nitty-gritty”details that cannot be avoided at the stage of its application.“The devils are in the details”,if not always.Good arguments do not necessarily make
10、good economic policies.This puts economists at risk.For instance,privatization 民營化(e.g.,第二次金融改革、BOT)has a noble objective,but its implementation is quite another:cases of failure abound.Russia is the worse case.An example:Is the practicing of the US monetary policy an art?“Discretion”選擇 wins over th
11、e“Rule”法則 in the old debate?What rules?(anything but constant)Taylors rule泰勒定律“natural rate”of unemployment自然失業率“neutral rate”of interest中性利率Has Greenspan lost monetary control?FFR rate has been raised since June 2004The long-rate fell rather than rose Greenspans conundrumA flattened yield curve:abs
12、ence of risk premium(a bond bubble?)A housing boom(or bubble)?Households extracted equity in the hundreds of billions(why not?)-to support consumption that led to a plunging in the saving rateThe government also went for a spending splurgeShortage in saving resulted in macroeconomic imbalance-and th
13、e decline in the dollarCauses of Greenspans conundrumBretton Woods II:foreign buying of treasuries,central banks from Asia in particular,accounted for 0.5%to 2.0%of the decline in the rate on the 10-year treasuries,to defuse currency appreciation.A global“saving glut”weak investment-accounts for the
14、 US current account deficit;the US is not to blame?Investors and speculators have imprudently opted for risky assets(real estate,bond),due to the low volatilities in the financial market.Taiwan:a Greenspanian conundrum?Taiwan:enjoyed a large saving surplus but no more as investment recoveredImplicat
15、ions?The US economy is in an un-chartered territory.Why?Its dynamism rests on consumption growth that,in turn,hinges on the wealth effect財富效果,or rather,the bubble泡沬effect,with income relegated to a minuscule role.Since the price of asset cannot increase forever,the US economic imbalance is not susta
16、inable可持續,unless income picks up.Unfortunately,we dont have a clear clue to the important question:Will the restoration of the US economic balance trigger a recession or a much more pleasant soft-landing軟著路?Prepare for the rainy days:The wealth-intoxicated US economy,the global locomotive,could jeop
17、ardize the health of the global economy.Taiwan needs to further strengthen domestic demand,preferably investment.Implication for economics:we need to pay more attention to the wealth effect in explaining saving/consumption behavior and perhaps even investment behavior since the wealth effect is not
18、so exceptional after all(see next).Permanent income and life-cycle hypotheses of saving/consumption are still relevant but not always.Is the wealth effect so exceptional?Can a capitalist market economy be exempted from the bubble attacks?Or is it desirable?Probably no,to both questions.Keynes:invest
19、ment is driven by animal spiritsSchumpeter:innovation that drives a capitalist economy involves a process of creative self-destruction Example:The 2000-2003 stock market bubble followed the IT revolution in the 1990sGlobalization as a wild cardThe fact that the US economy can even sustain a long per
20、iod of rising current account deficit rests on her ability to borrow from the international financial markets,or the free flow of capital that has kept on expanding.No wonder,when questioned,Harvard president,Mr.Summer says that US is one of the two countries that have benefited the most from global
21、ization.Guess which country is the other one?China!Challenge from China(and India)How to analyze Chinas impact on the global economy?China will likely be the largest economy in the world in this century.The centre of the world economy will shift from the West to the East.Is the rising of China repre
22、sents a positive supply shock供給震盪 to the global economy?It lowers global prices while expanding global output.Chinas red-hot growth stimulated global growth and financed US consumption.Chinas voracious demand for raw material raised world prices of commodities prices from copper to oil.How do other
23、countries take up the challenge and opportunity implied by Chinas rise?Embracing the challenge to move forward is the only optionConclusion:Bright future lies aheadThe challenges to economics/economists will continue to grow as the progress of society will put increasing demand on them.Why?Economics
24、 still holds the key to shed light on many new and old issues of societal concern.Economists are well advised to practice his/her trade with humidity and practice more.Economics may still be a dismal science,but the fortunes of economists should keep growing;lets certainly hope so.敬祝各位經濟學人身體健康學業進步 謝謝大家