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1、Atlantic CouncilGEOTECH CENTERReport of the Commission onthe Geopolitical Impacts ofNew Technologies and DataAtlantic CouncilGEOTECH CENTERThe Atlantic Council GeoTech Center works to shapethe global future of data and technology together.ISBN-13:978-1-61977-178-9This report is written and published
2、 in accordance withthe Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence.The authors are solely responsible for its analysis andrecommendations.The Atlantic Council and its donorsdo not determine,nor do they necessarily endorse oradvocate for,any of this reports conclusions.May 2021Cover:Double K
3、eck Lasers by Jason Chu Photography,https:/jason-Website:This report includes an interactive website,https:/atlanticcouncil.org/geotechreportCommission on theGeopolitical Impacts ofNew Technologies and DataIn preparing this report for the United States and its allies,to includemembers of Congress,th
4、e new presidential administration,privateindustry,academia,and like-minded nations,the Commission on theGeopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Data sought to providea compass bearing between where the world stood in 2020-2021 anda freer,more secure,and more prosperous world in 2031.Data capabi
5、lities and new technologies impact geopolitics,globalcompetition,and global opportunities for collaboration.The comingdecade must address the sophisticated but potentially fragile systemsthat now connect people and nations,and incorporate resiliency asa necessary foundational pillar of modern life.T
6、o maintain nationalCo-ChairsMr.John GoodmanMs.Teresa Carlsonand economic security and competitiveness in the global economy,the United States and its allies must continue to be preeminent in keytechnology areas,and take measures to ensure the trustworthinessand sustainability of the digital economy,
7、the analog economy,andtheir infrastructures to include:Honorary Co-ChairsSen.Mark WarnerSen.Rob PortmanRep.Suzan DelBeneRep.Michael McCaulCommissionersMr.Max R.Peterson IIMr.Paul DaughertyMr.Maurice SonnenbergHon.Michael ChertoffHon.Michael J.RogersMr.Pascal MarmierGlobal science and technology lead
8、ershipSecure data and communicationsRamayya Krishnan,PhDHon.Shirley Ann Jackson,PhDHon.Susan M.GordonVint Cerf,PhDEnhanced trust and confidence in the digital economyAssured supply chains and system resiliencyZia Khan,PhDContinuous global health protection and global wellnessAnthony Scriffignano,PhD
9、Ms.Frances F.TownsendAdmiral James Stavridis,USN,Ret.Assured space operations for public benefitDirector&Executive TeamDavid A.Bray,PhDFuture of workPeter Brooks,PhDMs.Stephanie WanderThe reports practical,implementable recommendations will enablethe United States and like-minded nations to employ d
10、ata capabilitiesand new technologies to achieve the goals set by this Commission.Mr.John Goodman,Co-ChairMs.Teresa Carlson,Co-ChairDavid A.Bray,DirectorReport of the Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and DataExecutive SummaryThe advancing speed,scale,and sophistication of ne
11、w technologies and datacapabilities that aid or disrupt our interconnected world are unprecedented.While generations have relied consistently on technologies and tools toimprove societies,we now are in an era where new technologies and datareshape societies and geopolitics in novel and even unantici
12、pated ways.As a result,gov-ernments,industries,and other stakeholders must work together to remain economicallycompetitive,sustain social welfare and public safety,protect human rights and demo-cratic processes,and preserve global peace and stability.Emerging technologies also promise new abilities
13、to make our increasingly fragile globalsociety more resilient.To sustain this progress,nations must invest in research,expandtheir digital infrastructures,and increase digital literacy so that their people can competeand flourish in this new era.Yet,at the same time,no nation or international organi
14、zation isable to keep pace with the appropriate governance structures needed to grapple with thecomplex and destabilizing dynamics of these emerging technologies.Governments,espe-cially democratic governments,must work to build and sustain the trust in the algorithms,infrastructures,and systems that
15、 could underpin society.The world must now start tounderstand how technology and data interact with society and how to implement solutionsthat address these challenges and grasp these opportunities.Maintaining both economicand national security and resiliency requires new ways to develop and deploy
16、critical andemerging technologies,cultivate the needed human capital,build trust in the digital fabricwith which our world will be woven,and establish norms for international cooperation.The Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Data(GeoTechCommission)was established by the
17、Atlantic Council in response to these challengesand seeks to develop recommendations to achieve these strategic goals.Specifically,the GeoTech Commission examined how the United States,along with other nations andglobal stakeholders,can maintain science and technology(S&T)leadership,ensure thetrustw
18、orthiness and resiliency of physical and software/informational technology(IT)supply chains and infrastructures,and improve global health protection and wellness.The GeoTech Commission identified key recommendations and practical steps forwardfor the US Congress,the presidential administration,execu
19、tive branch agencies,privateindustry,academia,and like-minded nations.ES-1Report of the Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and DataThe GeoTech DecadeData capabilities and new technologies increasingly exacerbate social inequality andimpact geopolitics,global competition,and g
20、lobal opportunities for collaboration.Thecoming decadethe“GeoTech Decade”must address the sophisticated but poten-tially fragile systems that now connect people and nations,and incorporate resiliencyas a necessary foundational pillar of modern life.Additionally,the rapidity of machinesto make sense
21、of large datasets and the speed of worldwide communications networksmeans that any event can escalate and cascade quickly across regions and borderswith the potential to further entrench economic inequities,widen disparities in accessto adequate healthcare,as well as to hasten increased exploitation
22、 of the natural envi-ronment.The coming years also will present new avenues for criminals and terrorists todo harm;authoritarian nations to monitor,control,and oppress their people;and dip-lomatic disputes to escalate to armed conflict not just on land,sea,and in the air,butalso in space and cybersp
23、ace.2001-20112011-20212021-2031Decade of Counterterrorismactivities globallyDecade of Decreasing Trustin government and bigtechnology companiesGeoTech Decade wheretechnology and new datacapabilities will significantlyaffect geopolitics,competition,and collaborationDomestically and internationally,th
24、e United States must promote strategic initiativesthat employ data and new technologies to amplify the ingenuity of people,diversity oftalent,strength of democratic values,innovation of companies,and the reach of globalpartnerships.Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Data CollectionsCritica
25、l technologies that will shape the GeoTech Decadeand in which the UnitedStates and its allies must maintain global S&T leadershipcan be grouped into six areas.All technologies in these categories will have broadand interdependenteffects onpeople and the way they live and work,on global safety and se
26、curity,and on the healthof people and our planet.Technologies that enable a digital economy:communications and network-ing,data science,and cloud computing:collectively provide the foundationfor secure transmission of data for both the public and private sector andestablish robust economies of ideas
27、,resources,and talent.Technologies for intelligent systems:artificial intelligence,distributed sen-sors,edge computing,and the Internet of Things:add new capabilities forES-2Report of the Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Dataunderstanding changes in the world in both ph
28、ysical and digital environments.The resulting data may supplement human intelligence,social engagements,andother sources of insight and analysis.In select,defined areas,intelligent systemsmay enhance human governance of complex systems or decisions.Technologies for global health and wellness:biotech
29、nologies,precision med-icine,and genomic technologies:help create new fields of research,develop-ment,and practical solutions that promote healthy individuals and communities.Nations and health care organizations can use advances in genomics,or morebroadly omics,1 to provide sentinel surveillance2 c
30、apabilities with respect to nat-ural or weaponized pathogens.Sentinel surveillance can provide early detection,data about how a new element is appearing and growing,and information toguide our response.Technologies that enlarge where people,enterprises,and governments oper-ate:space technologies,und
31、ersea technologies:commercial companies andnations around the world are deploying mega-constellations of satellites,orfleets of autonomous ocean platforms,with advanced,persistent surveillanceand communications capabilities.Large-scale Earth observation data is import-ant for monitoring the worlds a
32、tmosphere,oceans,and climate as a founda-tion for understanding evolving health and environmental risks and increas-ing the economic efficiencies in transportation,agriculture,and supply chainrobustness.Technologies that augment human work:autonomous systems,robotics,anddecentralized energy methods:
33、collectively provide the foundation to do workin dangerous or hazardous environments without risk to human lives,while atthe same time augmenting human teams,potentially prompting long-term dis-locations in national workforces,and requiring additional workforce talent fornew technology areas.Foundat
34、ional technologies:quantum information science(QIS),nanotechnol-ogy,new materials for extreme environments,and advanced microelectronics:collectively provide the foundation for solving classes of computational prob-lems,catalyzing next-generation manufacturing,setting standards,creating newways to m
35、onitor the trustworthiness of digital and physical supply chains,as well1Omics technologies are primarily aimed at the universal detection of genes(genomics),mRNA(transcriptomics),proteins(proteomics),and metabolites(metabolomics)in a specific biological sample.2A sentinel surveillance system is use
36、d to obtain data about a particular disease that cannot be obtained through apassive system such as summarizing standard public health reports.Data collected in a well-designed sentinel systemcan be used to signal trends,identify outbreaks,and monitor disease burden,providing a rapid,economical alte
37、rnativeto other surveillance methods.Source:“Immunization Analysis and Insights,”World Health Organization,accessed March19,2021,https:/www.who.int/teams/immunization-vaccines-and-biologicals/immunization-analysis-and-insights/surveillance/surveillance-for-vpds.ES-3Report of the Commission on the Ge
38、opolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Dataas potentially presenting new challenges and opportunities to communicationssecurity that underpin effective governance and robust economies.In addition to the technology itself,countries and organizations must learn to harnessand protect the human elem
39、entby recruiting and upskilling workers with the neededskill sets for today and training the next generation with the right knowledge for tomor-row.There is great competition globally for digitally-skilled workers,and some countriesor companies invest large amounts to develop or recruit this talent.
40、When like-mindednations collaborate in S&T areas,the talent resources can produce greater benefits thanpossible otherwise.This requires governments to ensure their entire populations gain theneeded digital literacy skills and have the means and opportunities to participate in theglobal digital econo
41、my.Making the whole greater than the sum of the parts representsthe important global need for international collaboration.The broad range of important S&T areas requires several forms of collaboration.In mul-tiple key areas,such as QIS and advanced microelectronics,several nations alreadyhave signif
42、icant government investments underway,and current results span a growingnumber of application areas.Collaborating on research and coordinating national invest-ments among like-minded nations could benefit all participants.Fast-evolving technicalcapabilities,such as commercial space or autonomous sys
43、tems,are supporting globalindustries that are developing and fielding new products.Effective collaboration relieson a broad ecosystem of domestic and foreign partners,including private sector entities.Collaboration will be limited in certain areas,for example,areas where,due to securityconsideration
44、s,the United States will develop capabilities in a self-reliant manner.Table ES.1:The GeoTech Decade:Areas Where Data and TechnologyWill Impact Social Equality,Geopolitics,Global Competition,and GlobalOpportunities for CollaborationCritical science and technology areasCommunications and networking,d
45、ata science,cloud computingArtificial intelligence,distributed sensors,edge computing,the Internet of ThingsBiotechnologies,precision medicine,genomic technologiesSpace technologies,undersea technologiesAutonomous systems,robotics,decentralized energy methodsQuantum information science,nanotechnolog
46、y,new materials for extremeenvironments,advanced microelectronicsES-4Report of the Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and DataSummary of RecommendationsTo maintain national and economic security and competitiveness in the global economy,the United States and its allies mustCo
47、ntinue to be preeminent in key technology areas,Take measures to ensure the trustworthiness and sustainability of the digitaleconomy,the analog economy,and their infrastructures.The GeoTech Commission provides recommendations in the following six areas forachieving these strategic objectives.A seven
48、th area,the Future of Work,discussesways to ensure the workforce acquires the skills needed for the digital economy,andthat there is equitable access to opportunity.Global science and technology leadershipTo ensure that the United States and its allies remain the world leaders in S&T,thefederal gove
49、rnment,working with industry and stakeholders,should establish a set ofprioritized strategic S&T objectives and align those objectives with specific timeframes.Additionally,the United States should establish a technology partnership among like-minded and democratic countries to coordinate actions ar
50、ound those objectives.Thepresident and the US Congress should increase annual federal funding for research anddevelopment activities to secure US global leadership in critical new industries andtechnologies,with priorities determined for the largest impact challenges and gaps.Tohelp people across th