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1、REPORT ISSUE 28Q4 2021Photo:ESB Professional /ShutterstockECI Media ManagementQ4 2021inflation reportupdate.3.12.14.15.16.37.38Introduction .Global Events&Media Developments.7Global Media Inflation .Regional Trends&Developments.Regional Inflation .Key Markets In Detail .About ECI .Our Product Offeri
2、ng.Contacts .39(Clickable in downloaded version)ContentsPhoto:Ulrike Neumann/iStockE C I I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T 2 0 2 1,Q 4 P A G E 2Global .Market.Inflation.Trends.5For many people across the world,it feels like life has returned to at least a version of normal,although the pandemic will ine
3、vitably have a long-lasting impact on the global economy and on how we live our lives.Lockdowns and stay-at-home restrictions are hopefully becoming a thing of the past as vaccine rollouts continue at pace,and consumers are slowly regaining the confidence to go out and spend money as economies recov
4、er.Media inflation in 2021 has reflected that increase in confidence.Overall media inflation is at 4.0%globally,with offline media reaching 3.5%and online 4.4%.The story is more complex and more interesting as we start to drill down into specific media types.TV has been the big success story of the
5、year,despite the rise in CTV and speculation that the streamers would cause the decline of linear TV.TV inflation is higher than anticipated at the start of the year,and is recovering more quickly than expected as well.We expect it to have recovered to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year in
6、all regions except Latin America.Online media inflation has been less volatile than offline,and didnt suffer the same dip at the height of the pandemic in 2020.This was in part thanks to the rise of CTV,which must also be held at least partially responsible for the significant deflation TV saw in 20
7、20.2021updateECI inflation reportExecutive summaryPhoto:ESB Professional /ShutterstockE C I I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T 2 0 2 1,Q 4 P A G E 3Online Display saw a marked decrease in 2020 in EMEA,but has recovered and inflated in all other regions.Meanwhile,Online Video has inflated across all regio
8、ns,thanks to that shift to CTV.Interestingly,online is seeing higher levels of inflation globally than offline,but that is because Print is dragging down the overall offline figure;in fact,the offline recovery compared to 2020 is greater than online,albeit from a lower base.The story is of course di
9、fferent across regions and markets,depending on a swathe of factors including government responses to the pandemic,vaccine rollouts and economic health prior to the pandemic.The story also evolves with the changing context.That is why we at ECI Media Management release this update to our annual infl
10、ation report;with both consumer behavior and media pricing so entwined with the prevailing economic context and,now,the recovery from the pandemic,it is crucial that marketers have up-to-date information easily available so they can make sound investment decisions,backed by data and reinforced by co
11、ntext.In this update,we explore the effect that the continued Covid-19 recovery is having on media inflation in key markets globally,how the outlook has changed over the course of 2021 and provide some initial thoughts as to what 2022 could look like.Our analysts across the world harness their deep
12、knowledge of the advertising landscape with industry-leading forensic data analysis skills to understand how media inflation has evolved.Our information is derived from a number of sources,including our global network of experts,real client data and agencies.We cross-reference it with data from indu
13、stry bodies and publications,as well as with agency traders and media vendors,meaning that it holistically reflects the expertise of those with an impact on trading variables.We hope that this update will play a valuable role in your toolkit as you prepare for 2022 and beyond.Executive summaryPhoto:
14、ESB Professional /ShutterstockE C I I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T 2 0 2 1,Q 4 P A G E 4Photo:Shutterlk/ShutterstockGlobalmarket inflationInflation rates are forecast to rise world-wide in 2021,with the USA seeing the sharpest increases in the second quar-ter of 2021.This rise in inflation rates cont
15、rasts with the downward trend of 2018-2020.This is likely a result of sharp increases to real GDP growth in 2021 compared to 2020,thanks to the easing of lockdown restrictions and the reopening of economies.Although it will continue on a trajectory of overall growth,worldwide real GDP growth is fore
16、cast to slow down in 2022.Please see the following page for CDI and GDP inflation graphs.trendsE C I I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T 2 0 2 1,Q 4 P A G E 5Photo:Sean Pavone/ShutterstockReal GDP,%change,year-on-year10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%Source:OECD Economic Outlook(https:/www.oecd-ilibrary.org/e
17、conomics/oecd-economic-outlook_16097408)trendsGlobal market inflationCPI Inflation,%change,year-on-yearWorldG7EU*USAChina*6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%Q2 Q12011201220132014201520162017201820192020WorldG7EU*USAChina*2021*There is no CPI Inflation data for China in 2020Source:OECD Economic Ou
18、tlook(https:/www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecd-economic-outlook_16097408)20182020201920212022WorldEUUSAChinaUKCanadaJapanIndiaWorldEUEUCanadaJapanIndiaUSAChinaE C I I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T 2 0 2 1,Q 4 P A G E 6Photo:Ioreanto/ShutterstockeventsThe impact of the Covid-19 pandemic continues to
19、 be felt in economies across the world,despite successful vaccine rollouts in most wealthy countries.While restrictions are lifting,consumers continue to display hesitancy about resuming normal life,and many habits have changed for good.THE COVID-19 PANDEMICAlthough many hoped that the pandemic woul
20、d be more or less over by now,Covid-19 continues to dominate global discourse.Since the release of our Q1 inflation report,many countries particularly wealthier ones havesuccessfully rolled out their vaccinationprogrammes.Governments,supported inmany instances by brands,are workingto persuade the va
21、ccine-hesitant to bevaccinated.AB InBev,for example,promisedall Americans aged 21 and over a free beerif the US reached President Bidens goalof 70%of people having received their first vaccine by July 4th,while Krispy Kreme and Shake Shack both offered Americans free food if they could demonstrate t
22、hat they had been vaccinated.Furthermore,many brands are offering employees time off or payment to get their vaccines.Travel restrictions remain in place to varying degrees,particularly for unvaccinated people,leading to uncertainty for both the travel industry and travelers.However,restrictions are
23、 starting to ease for vaccinated travelers.The US,for example,has confirmed that fully vaccinated visitors from most countries will be able to enter the country from early November.SPORTThe Olympic and Paralympic Games2021 was the year of the sport comeback,with many fans enjoying in-person attendan
24、ce for the first time in over a year.The 2020 Tokyo Olympics were rescheduled to this year and took place at the end of July.This was despite suggestions until the week before that they might still be cancelled,thanks to widespread opposition of the Games amongst Japanese people,with many worried it
25、 would lead to an increase in cases of Covid-19.In light of this opposition,Toyota a sponsor of the games pulled Olympic-related TV ads in Japan.This was perceived as a symbolic vote of no confidence by a major sponsor,and undoubtedly had many a marketer planning for the cancellation of the Games.Gl
26、obalE C I I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T 2 0 2 1,Q 4 P A G E 7However,both the Olympics and Paralympics went ahead and were generally perceived as a success,although the empty stadiums had an undeniable impact on the experience of the Games for athletes,TV viewers and sponsors.In an interesting devel
27、opment,the impact of Discoverys purchase of the European rights to the 2018-2024 Olympics six years ago was felt by European viewers,with the deal severely limiting free-to-air coverage of Tokyo 2020 in countries including the UK and Italy.Euros 2020The 2020 UEFA European Football Championship the E
28、uros came at an opportune time for a pandemic-ravaged continent.It coincided with the lifting of restrictions in many countries,thereby providing a boost not only to public morale but to a reeling hospitality industry.In the UK alone the final(in which England took part)is believed to have contribut
29、ed 150 million($207 million)to British GDP.The Euros,which took place in front of partially filled stadiums,were also a demonstration of the new normal a normal where testing,vaccines and the reopening of public life became mainstream.The European Super LeagueIn April,12 of Europes top football team
30、s announced that they were forming a new league,called the European Super League,which would allow the top clubs and players to compete on a regular basis.It was a way for the clubs,whose income was severely impacted by the pandemic,to earn more prize and rights money,as well as to create more spons
31、orship opportunities.However,the initiative immediately faced widespread opposition from UEFA,FIFA,national governments and fans,who accused the clubs of elitism and greed,and within days it had collapsed.Most clubs have now withdrawn,with the notable exceptions of Real Madrid,Barcelona and Juventus
32、.POLITICS AND WORLD EVENTSThe Biden AdministrationThe Biden administrations immediate focus upon taking office was to get the pandemic under control and the American economy back on track.On the first count they are enjoying success:at the time of writing,67%of the population has received at least o
33、ne dose of the vaccine,while 57%have bene fully vaccinated.Economic recovery,however,is more shaky.Recently,concern around the Delta variant of the virus has hit consumer confidence,which has in turn impacted recovery,particularly for the travel and hospitality sectors.Job growth has slowed,the effe
34、ct of which has been exacerbated by the end of Covid-19 unemployment benefits.AfghanistanOne of the major events of Bidens presidency so far has been his decision to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan,effectively ending NATOs 20-year occupation of the country.Photo:AevanStock/ShutterstockE C I
35、I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T 2 0 2 1,Q 4 P A G E 8The resulting power vacuum was filled with astonishing speed by the Taliban,with huge human rights implications for women in particular,and cries of protest from around the world.ElectionsSeveral key global powers have recentlyhad elections,or have
36、elections in the near future.Following Germanys recent elections,it looks likely that centre-left candidate Olaf Scholz will replace Angela Merkel as Chancellor.Merkel has been a figure of stability for both Germany and the European Union,so it will be interesting to see if Scholz will be able to st
37、ep into that role effectively,if he does indeed become Chancellor.Canada gave Justin Trudeau a third term as Prime Minister and his second minority government,while French president Emmanuel Macron is preparing for presidential elections in the spring of 2022,which will be seen as a vote on his gove
38、rnments Covid-19 performance.He will face considerable opposition from far-right candidates.Global supply chain crisisAs Covid-19 restrictions ease and national economies emerge from strict lockdowns,pent-up demand for labor,energy,goods and transport has surged.This rapid acceleration is putting en
39、ormous pressure on just-in-time supply chains that keep factories and shop shelves stocked.Shipping containers are queuing outside major ports,resulting in supply issues across the world.This is causing panic in the run up to the holiday season,with consumers worried that they will not be able to ge
40、t hold of the food and gifts that are normally so fundamental to celebrations.The issue is being exacerbated in countries including the UK and Germany by a shortage of HGV drivers to transport goods when they come ashore.Meanwhile,investment banks have downgraded their growth forecasts for China in
41、the wake of power cuts that have shut down entire cities,including factories,thereby affecting exports.THE ENVIRONMENTEnvironmental issues continue to attract a lot of concern from experts around the world.Countries around the world have seen more extreme adverse weather events,including devastating
42、 floods,hurricanes and heatwaves.The UK is being seeking to assert its climate leadership when it hosts COP26 in early November,bringing global leaders together to discuss how they can work together to implement effective measures to reduce the threat presented by climate change.The conference will
43、be supported by a number of global brands,including Unilever,Microsoft and GSK.Photo:Alex Stemmers/ShutterstockE C I I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T 2 0 2 1,Q 4 P A G E 9Tightening control of the tech sectorWith the pandemic accelerating the influence that the internet has on our lives,governments acr
44、oss the world have continued to implement measures to try to control it.In August,the White House held a summit to address cybersecurity threats against the US.Several Big Tech companies including Alphabet,IBM and Microsoft have pledged billions of dollars to cybersecurity over the coming years,and
45、have also said that they will train Americans to fill some of the 500,000 unfilled vacancies in the security sector.Shortly after the summit,T-Mobile confirmed that a hacker had stolen the personal details of more than 54 million customers the fourth and largest confirmed data hack since 2018.Big Te
46、ch continues to face intense scrutiny by regulators around the world.In August,the USs Federal Trade Commission(FTC)refiled their antitrust complaint against Facebook,alleging the company has a focused strategy of supressing competition through a buy or bury strategy.Facebook is fighting back,filing
47、 a motion in October saying that the FTC has failed to provide adequate evidence and analysis that the company has a monopoly and harmed rivals through its dominant position.Meanwhile,China has continued its crackdown on the technology sector with the implementation of a new law to tighten control o
48、f companies user data.It has also implemented a new restriction,banning children from playing more than three hours of online gaming a week.From September,Chinese minors have only been able to play video games between 8pm and 9pm on Fridays,weekends and public holidays.The new regulation has had a s
49、ignificant impact on some of Chinas biggest gaming companies such as Tencent and NetEase,whose stock prices fell sharply.The dangers that children face online are well documented.Apples To Catch a Predator policy aims to limit the spread of Child Sexual Abuse Material(CSAM).It is spread across three
50、 areas:the Messages app will learn and warn about sensitive content;the new iOS and iPadOS will use new applications of cryptography to detect CSAM;and Siri Search will also intervene when users try to search for CSAM-related topics.These features will be implemented later this year.The end of the e