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1、Project Risk ManagementArt Or Science?学习提示学习内容|风险与风险管理的含义|项目风险管理过程1.风险管理计划2.风险识别3.定性的风险分析4.定量的风险分析5.风险反应计划6.风险的监督与控制7.软件的应用|学习重点项目风险管理过程|学习难点1.风险管理计划2.风险评估What risk is|A basic dictionary definition says that risk is“the possibility of loss or injury”Risk is uncertainty that have a Negative Or positi
2、ve effect on meeting project objectivesNegativeRisk(1960S-1970S)A general definition(1980S-1990S)风险的属性f(probability,impact)f(threat insurance chance)certainRiskUncertainProject risk managementProject risk management is the art and science of identifying,analyzing,and responding to risk throughout th
3、e life of a project and in the best interest of meeting the project objectives风险管理是对项目管理过程中如何处理风险管理是对项目管理过程中如何处理风险事件的决策和控制过程风险事件的决策和控制过程项目风险管理项目风险管理是在项目生命期内，为了最大限度地是在项目生命期内，为了最大限度地满足项目目标，识别、分析风险并满足项目目标，识别、分析风险并做出相应反应的艺术和科学做出相应反应的艺术和科学Risk preferenceUtilityUtilityPotential payoffRisk neutralRisk-aver
4、seRisk-averseRisk seekingthe amount of satisfaction or pleasure received from a potential payoff决策过程的三种规范确定状态风险不确定性Whats the difference between the crisis management and the risk managementProject management maturity by industry group and knowledge areaKEY:1=Lowest Maturity rating 5=Highest Maturity
5、 RatingEngineering/constructiontelecommunicationsInformation systemsHi-TechmanufacturingScope3.523.453.253.37Time3.553.143.033.50Cost3.743.223.203.97Quality2.913.222.883.26Human resources3.183.202.933.18communication3.533.533.213.48risk2.932.872.752.76procurement3.333.012.913.33It is important to no
6、te that:Risk management is an investment-there are cost associated with It.nature of the project,The experience of the project team,constrains imposed on both Cost exceed potential benefitMinimizing potential negative riskWhile maximizing potential positive riskdependsgoalsprincipleThe major process
7、 involved in risk management1.Risk management planning2.Risk identification3.Qualitative risk analysis4.Quantitative risk analysis5.Risk response planning6.Risk monitoring and control编制风险编制风险管理计划管理计划识别风险识别风险风险的定性风险的定性和定量分析和定量分析编制风险编制风险应对计划应对计划风险监督风险监督与管理与管理谢谢 谢！谢！风险管理流程风险管理风险管理风险监控风险监控风险规划风险规划风险评估风险
8、评估风险应对风险应对反馈反馈风险文件风险识别风险识别风险分析风险分析反馈线中：虚线表示存在反馈实线表示可能存在反馈风险应对风险应对计划计划/准备准备过程过程风险风险识别识别最高风险最高风险的清单的清单制定风险制定风险应对战略应对战略风险应对手段风险应对手段的选择和分析的选择和分析最佳最佳选择选择风险风险应对工具应对工具最佳实最佳实施方法施方法论证后的风论证后的风险应对计划险应对计划修订最高修订最高风险的报告风险的报告状态状态报告报告其他步其他步骤的反馈骤的反馈风险风险分析分析风险优先风险优先级和整合级和整合实施风实施风险应对计划险应对计划可能性可能性与影响与影响风险评估风险评估风险监控风险监控
9、和报告和报告风险监控风险监控风险事风险事件清单件清单风险风险管理计划管理计划过程过程计划和控制计划和控制组织和培训组织和培训风险规划风险规划Risk management planningRisk management planning is the process of deciding how to approach and plan for risk management activities for a project。A risk management plan documents the procedures for managing risk throughout the pro
10、ject风险管理计划编制风险管理计划编制就是决定采用何种就是决定采用何种方法进行风险管理方法进行风险管理活动并制定相应计活动并制定相应计划管理过程。划管理过程。风险管理计划是风险管理计划是管理整个项目生管理整个项目生命期中的风险程命期中的风险程序性文件序性文件Topic addressed in a risk management plan1.Methodology:how will risk management be performed on this project?What tools and data resources are available and applicable？2.
11、Roles and responsibilities:who are the individuals responsible for implementing specific tasks and providing deliverables related to risk management？3.Budget and schedule:what are the estimated cost and schedules for performing risk related activities？方法论：项目中的风险管理怎样被执行？可以得到的并切实可行的工具和数据资源是什么?角色和责任：谁是
12、执行特定任务并对风险管理提供可交付性成果的个人或群体？预算和进度：执行与与风险相关的进度和估计的成本是多少？Topic addressed in a risk management plan1.Risk categories:what are the main categories of risks that should be addressed on this project?Is there a risk breakdown structure for the project?2.Risk probability and impact:how will the probabilities
13、 and impacts of risk items be assessed?What scoring and interpretation methods will be used for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of risks3.Risk documenting:what reporting formats and process will be used for risk management activities.风险的种类：项目中涉及的风险的种类：项目中涉及的主要风险的种类有哪些？是主要风险的种类有哪些？是否编制出与否编制
14、出与WBSWBS和和OBSOBS相应项相应项目风险结构分解图？目风险结构分解图？风险的概率和影响：风险项风险的概率和影响：风险项目发生的概率和对项目目标目发生的概率和对项目目标产生的影响如何评价？什么产生的影响如何评价？什么样的打分和解释的方法可用样的打分和解释的方法可用来定性和定量地分析项目风来定性和定量地分析项目风险？险？风险登记：采用怎样的报告风险登记：采用怎样的报告形式和流程用来登记风险管形式和流程用来登记风险管理活动。理活动。Project documentsCorporate risk management policiesRisk categoriesLessons-learne
15、d reports from past projectTemplates for creating a risk management planThe risk tolerances of various stakeholders A risk management plan:summarizes how risk management will be performed on a particular project完善的风险计划威胁与灾害威胁与灾害应急方案与缓和计划应急方案与缓和计划损失和破坏不完善的风险计划威胁与灾害威胁与灾害应急方案与缓和计划应急方案与缓和计划损失和破坏Risk Ide
16、ntification|Identifying risk is the process of understanding what potential events might hurt or enhance a particular project。|风险识别是了解可能损害和增强特定项目效益的潜在风险事件的过程。1.Tools and techniques2.The risk register项目风险管理计划项目计划信息：工作分解结构：项目的产品描述、项目的工期和成本估计、资源规划、采购计划、假设前提和限制条件；风险类别历史资料：项目文档、公开发表的资料、项目团队成员的知识和经验访谈法SWO
17、T检查表法假设前提分析图示技术文件审核头脑风暴德尔菲法Identified riskstriggersSuggestions for identifying risksBrainstorming:is a techniques for by which a group attempts to generate ideas or find a solution for a specific problem by amassing ideas spontaneously and without judgmentDelphi technique is to derive a consensus am
18、ong a panel of experts who make predictions about future developmentsInterviewing:is a fact-finding technique for collecting information in face-to-face,phone,e-mail,or instant-messaging discussionsThe Risk RegisterA risk register is a document that contains results of various risk management proces
19、s,often displayed in a table or spreadsheet format.It is a tool for documenting potential risk events and related information。Risk events refer to specific,uncertain events that may occur to the detriment or enhancement of the project风险登记表是一种记录各种风险管风险登记表是一种记录各种风险管理过程结果的文件，通常以表格的理过程结果的文件，通常以表格的形式给出，是
20、用来描述潜在风险事形式给出，是用来描述潜在风险事件和相关信息的文件件和相关信息的文件风险事件是指那些特定的风险事件是指那些特定的可能对项目产生有利或可能对项目产生有利或不利影响的不确定事件不利影响的不确定事件Sample Risk RegisterNORANKRISKDESCRIPTIONCATEGORYROOT CAUSETRIGGERSPOTENTIAL RESPONSESRISK OWERPROBABILITYIMPACTSTATUSR441R212Qualitative Risk AnalysisProbability/impactMatrix or chartTop ten item
21、 trackingExpert judgmentSample probability/impact Matrixrisk6risk9Risk1risk4Risk3risk7Risk2Risk5risk11Risk8risk10risk12highmediumlowhighmediumlowimpactprobabilityLowriskMediumriskHighriskTop ten risk item tracking:it maintains an awareness of risks through out of the life of a project.MONTHLY RANKIN
22、GRISK EVENRANK THIS MONTHRANK LAST MONTHNUMBER OF MONTH IN TOP TENRISK RESOLUTION PROGRESSInadequate planning124Working on revising the entire project management planPoor definition233Holding meetings with project customer and sponsor or to clarify scopeAbsence of leadership312After previous project
23、 manager quiet,assigned a new one to lead a projectExpected Monetary Value(EMV)Exampledecision probability0.20.80.20.10.7$300,000-$40,000-$50,000-$20,000$60,000=+$60,000-$32,000-$10,000-$2,000$42,000Project 1Project 2outcome=EMVPROJECT1S EMV=$60,00-$32,000=$28,000Project 2,s EMA=-$10,000-$2,000+$42,
24、000=$30,000SIMULATIONlA more sophisticated quantitative risk analysis technique is simulation,simulation uses a representation or model of a system to analyze the expected behavior or performance of the system.lMost simulations are based on some form of Monte Carlo analysis.风险的定性分析风险的定性分析风险的定量分析风险的定
25、量分析定义定性风险分析是评估已识别风险的影响和可能性的过程。这一过程按风险对项目目标可能的影响对风险进行排序。定量风险分析过程的目标是量化分析每一风险的概率及其对项目目标造成的后果，也分析项目总体风险的程度作用与目的识别具体风险和指导风险应对；根据各风险对于项目目标的潜在影响对风险进行排序通过比较风险值确定风险总体级别。测定某一特定项目目标的概率；量化项目的风险影响，决定项目可能需要的成本和时间的应急储备；通过量化各风险对项目目标的影响程度，赠别出最需要关注的风险相互联系风险的定量分析一般在风险的定性分析之后进行。风险的定性分析与风险的定量分析可以分别单独使用，也可以一起使用，这决定于项目的时
26、间、预算的要求和风险以及影响对风险性定量说明的需要。需要提供的信息和依据风险管理计划已识别的风险项目状态项目类型数据精确性概率范围及后果假设前提风险管理计划已识别的风险风险优先次序清单历史信息专家判断其他计划编制的输出运用的方法与工具访谈概率/影响风险等级评分矩阵专家判断法十大风险项目跟踪风险概率和影响敏感性分析决策树分析模拟（蒙特卡罗分析）分析的结果项目总体风险等级项目优先次序清单需进一步分析和管理的风险清单风险定性分析结果中反映的趋势。经量化的风险优先次序清单项目概率分析完成成本和时间目标的概率定量分析结果中反映的趋势风险应对计划的编制概念：针对已识别的风险制定行动方案和确定行动措施的过程
27、，其目标在于增加实现项目目标的机会，减少对项目的威胁。这一过程包括确定和分派相应的人员和单位负责每项风险应对措施，保证已识别的风险能够得到合适的处理。项目风险应对计划（risk register)序号序号风险事件风险事件 风险的影响风险的影响应对策略应对策略具体应对措施具体应对措施负责人负责人Risk Response Planning lThe basic response strategies for negative risk:1.Risk avoidance2.Risk acceptance3.Risk transference4.Risk mitigationlThe basic r
28、esponse strategies for positive risks:1.Risk exploitation2.Risk sharing3.Risk enhancement4.Risk acceptance风险应对策略规避风险：通过变更项目计划，从而消除风险和产生风险的条件，或者保护项目的目标免受风险的影响。如缩小项目范围、延长工期、采用成熟的技术、避免使用缺乏经验的承包商。转移风险：设法将风险的结果连同对风险应对的权利转让给第三方。转移风险需要付出相应的成本包括：保险费、履约保证金、担保费用等。缓解风险：采取一定措施将某一负面风险影响事件的概率和其后果将地道到一种可以接受的限度。缓解风
29、险应注意成本收益的比较，保证风险管理投资的合理性。接受风险：当某一风险的影响在可承受的范围之内，或者项目团队没能找到其他合适的风险应对策略时，不改变原有计划去应对某一风险。采用接受风险的策略需要制定：应急计划（contingency plan),退却计划（fallback plan)、应急补助和储备（contingency allowance）。Risk Monitoring And ControllRisk monitoring and control involves executing the risk management processes to respond to risk ev
30、ens.lExecuting the risk management process means ensuring that risk awareness is an ongoing activity performed by the entire project team throughout the entire project.Reassessment,risk audits,varianceAnd trend analysis,technical performance measurements,reserve analysis,And status meetings or perio
31、dic risk reviews such as The top ten risk item tracking method Tools and technicalRequested changes,Recommended corrective and preventive actions,And updates to the risk register,project management plan,Organizational process assets,such as lessons-learned information that might help future projecto
32、utput风险监控风险的监控就是对项目的风险进行监督和控制，包括：1.跟踪已识别的风险、监视残余风险和识别新的风险；2.保证风险管理计划和风险应对计划的执行和实施；3.评估这些计划对于递减风险的有效性项目风险监督和控制包括在整个项目过程中风险监控的目的风险应对计划是否有效实施？风险应对措施是否有效？项目假设前提是否依然成立；风险暴露水平与以前的状况相比是否发生变化，如发生，做出趋势分析；某一风险触发器/征兆是否已经发生；适当的组织政策和管理程序是否得到遵从；是否有新的风险风险监控的方法与措施建立风险数据库；定期对项目风险进行审核；完善风险管理责任制度。Broad categories of r
33、isks might include:MarketriskFinancialriskTechnology riskPeople riskStructure/processriskSample risk breakdown structureIT ProjectCompetitionsuppliersCash flowHardwaresoftwarenetworkExecutive supportuser supportteam supportestimatecommunicationresourceProject managementTechnicalBusinessOrganizationa
34、l每一阶段的典型风险事件全生命期四个阶段项目批准项目初始计划和详细计划执行结束缺乏主要专家问题定义不明确无可行性研究目标不明确购买（通过竞标）无风险管理计划计划草率缺乏准确参数传播不准确角色定义不明确团队缺乏经验员工缺乏技能材料可获得性罢工天气范围变更进度变更管理制度要求无适应的控制系统质量差客户不接受基建规模更改现金流动问题总体项目风险风险投资总额Potential negative risk conditions associated with each knowledge areaareaRisk conditionsintegrationScope Time CostInadequat
35、e planning;poor resource allocation;poor integration management;lack of post-project review Poor definition of scope or work packages;incomplete definitionErrors in estimating time or resource availability;errors in determining the critical path;poor allocation and management of float;early release
36、of competitive productsEstimating errors;inadequate productivity,cost change,or contingencyareaRisk conditionsqualityHuman resourcescommunicationrisk procurementPotential negative risk conditions associated with each knowledge areapoor attitude toward quality;substandard design/materials/workmanship
37、;inadequate quality assurance programPoor conflict management;poor project organization and definition of responsibilities;absence of leadershipCarelessness in planning or communicating;lack of Consultation With key stakeholdersIgnoring risk;unclear analysis of risk;poor insurance managementUnenforceable conditions or contract clauses;adversarial relations