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1、MARKETING MANAGEMENT12th edition4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting DemandKotlerKeller1Chapter QuestionsnWhat constitutes good marketing research?nWhat are good metrics for measuring marketing productivity?nHow can marketers assess their return on investment of marketing expenditures?nHo
2、w can companies more accurately measure and forecast demand?2Marketing Research DefinedSystematic design,collection,analysis,and reporting of data and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation facing a company.3Types of Marketing Research FirmsnSyndicatednCustomnSpecialty-line4The Marketin
3、g Research ProcessnDefine the problemnDevelop the research plannCollect informationnAnalyze informationnPresent findingsnMake decision5Step 1nDefine the problemnSpecify decision alternativesnState research objectives6Step 2nData sourcesnResearch approachnResearch instrumentsnSampling plannContact me
4、thods7Research ApproachesnObservationnFocus groupnSurveynBehavioral DatanExperimentation8Research InstrumentsnQuestionnairesnQualitative MeasuresnMechanical Devices9nAvoid negativesnAvoid hypotheticalsnAvoid words that could be misheardnUse response bandsnUse mutually exclusive categoriesnAllow for“
5、other”in fixed response questionsQuestionnaire Dos and DontsnEnsure questions are free of biasnMake questions simplenMake questions specificnAvoid jargonnAvoid sophisticated wordsnAvoid ambiguous words10Question Types-DichotomousIn arranging this trip,did you contact American Airlines?Yes No11Questi
6、on Types Multiple ChoiceWith whom are you traveling on this trip?No one Spouse Spouse and children Children only Business associates/friends/relatives An organized tour group12Question Types Likert ScaleIndicate your level of agreement with the following statement:Small airlines generally give bette
7、r service than large ones.Strongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree13Question Types Semantic DifferentialAmerican AirlinesLarge.SmallExperienced.InexperiencedModern.Old-fashioned14Question Types Importance ScaleAirline food service is _ to me.Extremely important Very
8、 important Somewhat important Not very important Not at all important15Question Types Rating ScaleAmerican Airlines food service is _.Excellent Very good Good Fair Poor16Question Types Intention to Buy ScaleHow likely are you to purchase tickets on American Airlines if in-flight Internet access were
9、 available?Definitely buy Probably buy Not sure Probably not buy Definitely not buy17Question Types Completely UnstructuredWhat is your opinion of American Airlines?18Question Types Word AssociationWhat is the first word that comes to your mind when you hear the following?Airline _American _Travel _
10、19Question Types Sentence CompletionWhen I choose an airline,the most important consideration in my decision is:_.20Question Types Story Completion“I flew American a few days ago.I noticed that the exterior and interior of the plane had very bright colors.This aroused in me the following thoughts an
11、d feelings.”Now complete the story._21Question Types Picture(Empty Balloons)22Qualitative MeasuresnShadowingnBehavior mappingnConsumer journeynCamera journalsnExtreme user interviewsnStorytellingnUnfocused groups 23Mechanical DevicesnGalvanometersnTachistoscopenEye camerasnAudiometersnGPS24Sampling
12、PlannSampling unit:Who is to be surveyed?nSample size:How many people should be surveyed?nSampling procedure:How should the respondents be chosen?25Types of SamplesProbabilitynSimple randomnStratified randomnClusterNonprobabilitynConveniencenJudgmentnQuota26Contact MethodsnMail questionnairenTelepho
13、ne interviewnPersonal interviewnOnline interview27Characteristics of Good Marketing Research Scientific method Research creativity Multiple methods Interdependence Value and cost of information Healthy skepticism Ethical marketing28Table 4.4 Marketing MetricsnExternalnAwarenessnMarket sharenRelative
14、 pricenNumber of complaintsnCustomer satisfactionnDistributionnTotal number of customersnLoyaltynInternalnAwareness of goalsnCommitment to goalsnActive supportnResource adequacynStaffing levelsnDesire to learnnWillingness to changenFreedom to failnAutonomy29Table 4.5 Sample Customer-Performance Scor
15、ecard Measuresn%of new customers to average#n%of lost customers to average#n%of win-back customers to average#n%of customers in various levels of satisfactionn%of customers who would repurchasen%of target market members with brand recalln%of customers who say brand is most preferred30Tools to Measur
16、e Marketing Plan PerformancenSales analysisnMarket share analysisnExpense-to-Sales AnalysisnFinancial Analysis31Sales AnalysisnSales-Variance AnalysisnMicro-Sales Analysis32Market Share AnalysisnOverall market sharenServed market sharenRelative market share33Marketing-Profitability AnalysisStep 1:Id
17、entifying Functional ExpensesStep 2:Assigning Functional Expenses to Marketing EntitiesStep 3:Preparing a Profit-and-Loss Statementfor each Marketing Entity34Distinguishing Types of CostsnDirectnTraceable commonnNontraceable common35The Measures of Market DemandnPotential marketnAvailable marketnTar
18、get marketnPenetrated market36Estimating Current DemandnTotal market potentialnArea market potentialMarket buildup methodMultiple-factor index methodnBrand development index37Estimating Future DemandnSurvey of Buyers IntentionsnComposite of Sales Force OpinionsnExpert OpinionnPast-Sales AnalysisnMar
19、ket-Test Method38Purchase Probability ScaleDo you intend to buy an automobile within the next 6 months?0.00 No0.20 Slight possibility0.40 Fair possibility0.60 Good possibility0.80 High possibility1.00 Certain391、有时候读书是一种巧妙地避开思考的方法。4月-234月-23Sunday,April 23,20232、阅读一切好书如同和过去最杰出的人谈话。08:59:3108:59:3108
20、:594/23/2023 8:59:31 AM3、越是没有本领的就越加自命不凡。4月-2308:59:3108:59Apr-2323-Apr-234、越是无能的人，越喜欢挑剔别人的错儿。08:59:3108:59:3108:59Sunday,April 23,20235、知人者智，自知者明。胜人者有力，自胜者强。4月-234月-2308:59:3108:59:31April 23,20236、意志坚强的人能把世界放在手中像泥块一样任意揉捏。23四月20238:59:31上午08:59:314月-237、最具挑战性的挑战莫过于提升自我。四月238:59上午4月-2308:59April 23,2
21、0238、业余生活要有意义，不要越轨。2023/4/238:59:3108:59:3123 April 20239、一个人即使已登上顶峰，也仍要自强不息。8:59:32上午8:59上午08:59:324月-2310、你要做多大的事情，就该承受多大的压力。4/23/2023 8:59:32 AM08:59:3223-4月-2311、自己要先看得起自己，别人才会看得起你。4/23/2023 8:59 AM4/23/2023 8:59 AM4月-234月-2312、这一秒不放弃，下一秒就会有希望。23-Apr-2323 April 20234月-2313、无论才能知识多么卓著，如果缺乏热情，则无异纸上画饼充饥，无补于事。Sunday,April 23,202323-Apr-234月-2314、我只是自己不放过自己而已，现在我不会再逼自己眷恋了。4月-2308:59:3223 April 202308:59谢谢大家谢谢大家