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1、Operations ManagementDecision-Making ToolsModule A21998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.OutlineThe Decision Process in OperationsFundamentals of Decision MakingDecision TablesDecision Making Under RiskExpected Value of Perfect Information(EVPI)Decision TreesA More Complex Decision Tree31998 by Prentice Hall,In
2、c.Learning ObjectivesState the decision processDescribe decision tables&treesExplain decision making under riskCompute expected monetary valueUse decision tables&trees to make decisions41998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.Models,and the Techniques of Scientific Management Can Help Managers To:Gain deeper insi
3、ght into the nature of business relationshipsFind better ways to assess values in such relationships;andSee a way of reducing,or at least understanding,uncertainty that surrounds business plans and actions51998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.Steps to Good DecisionsDefine problem&influencing factorsEstablish d
4、ecision criteriaSelect decision-making tool(model)Identify&evaluate alternatives using decision-making tool(model)Select best alternativeImplement decision61998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.Advantages of Using ModelsThey are less expensive and disruptive than experimenting with the real world systemThey all
5、ow operations managers to ask“What if”types of questionsThey are built for management problems and encourage management inputThey force a consistent and systematic approach to the analysis of problemsThey require managers to be specific about constraints and goals relating to a problemThey can help
6、reduce the time needed in decision making71998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.Limitations of ModelsThey may be expensive and time-consuming to develop and testThey are often misused and misunderstood(and feared)because of their mathematical complexityThey tend to downplay the role and value of nonquantifiable
7、 informationThey often have assumptions that oversimplify the variables of the real world81998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.决策过程The Decision-Making Process问题Problem决策Decision计量分析计量分析Quantitative Analy逻辑Logic历史资料Historical Data行销研究Marketing Research科学分析Scientific Analysis模式Modeling计质分析计质分析Qualitative Analysi
8、s感情Emotions直观Intuition个人经验和激励Personal Experience and Motivation谣言Rumors91998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.决策问题决策问题Decision Problem 方案方案Alternatives自然的状况自然的状况自然的状况自然的状况States States of Natureof Nature结果结果Out-comes问题的元素Elements of a Problem101998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.Decision Problem Decision Problem Alternat
9、ivesAlternativesStates of NatureStates of NatureOut-Out-comescomes决策树Decision trees决策表Decision tables呈现决策问题解决的方法111998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.决策论Fundamentals of Decision Theory有三种决策模式有三种决策模式:在确定在确定环境下作决策境下作决策Decision making under certainty在在风险下作决策下作决策Decision making under risk在不确定在不确定环境下作决策境下作决策Decisi
10、on making under uncertainty条件条件Terms:方案方案Alternative:course of action or choice状况状况State of nature:an occurrence over which the decision maker has no control决策决策树的符号的符号Symbols used in decision tree:决策点决策点A decision node from which one of several alternatives may be selected决策状况决策状况A state of nature
11、node out of which one state of nature will occur121998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.状况状况States of Nature方案方案AlternativesState 1State 2Alternative 1Outcome 1Outcome 2Alternative 2Outcome 3Outcome 4决策表Decision Table131998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.替代替代方案方案低低中中高高小型小型设备$10$10$10中型中型设备$7$12$12大型大型设备(4)216报酬表报酬表确定环境下的
12、决策确定环境下的决策替代替代方案方案低低中中高高小型小型设备$10$10$10中型中型设备$7$12$12大型大型设备(4)216概率性决策Probabilistic decision situation不同状况的概率性决策States of nature have probabilities of occurrence选择最大的金钱期望回报Select alternative with largest expected monetary value(EMV)Average return for alternative If decision were repeated many times在
13、有风险下进行决策Decision Making Under Risk161998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.不确定环境下的决策替代替代方案方案低低中中高高小型小型设备$10$10$10中型中型设备$7$12$12大型大型设备(4)216小中取大小中取大(10)大中取大大中取大平均值或平均值或Laplace最大遗憾中最大遗憾中取最小取最小不确定环境下的决策替代替代方案方案低低中中高高小型小型设备$10$10$10中型中型设备$7$12$12大型大型设备(4)216小中取大小中取大(10)大中取大大中取大(16)平均值或平均值或Laplace最大遗憾中最大遗憾中取最小取最小不确定环
14、境下的决策替代替代方案方案低低中中高高小型小型设备$10$10$10中型中型设备$7$12$12大型大型设备(4)216小中取大小中取大(10)大中取大大中取大(16)平均值或平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遗憾中最大遗憾中取最小取最小平均数平均数平均数最大遗憾值取最小不确定环境下的决策替代替代方案方案低低中中高高小型小型设备$10$10$10中型中型设备$7$12$12大型大型设备(4)216小中取大小中取大(10)大中取大大中取大(16)平均值或平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遗憾中最大遗憾中取最小取最小10-10,10-7,10+412-10,12-12,12-216-1
15、016-1216-16不确定环境下的决策替代替代方案方案低低中中高高小型小型设备$10$10$10中型中型设备$7$12$12大型大型设备(4)216小中取大小中取大(10)大中取大大中取大(16)平均值或平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遗憾中最大遗憾中取最小取最小(4)最大遗憾值取最小02630414100EMV AVP VVP VVP VVP ViiiiNN()()()()=N=S S*=*+*+*11122LNo.of states of natureNo.of states of natureNo.of states of naturePayoffPayoffProbabili
16、ty of payoffProbability of payoffAlternative Alternative i iEMV方程式Expected Monetary Value Equation221998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.以图解进行决策Graphical display of decision process问题解决Used for solving problems With 1 set of alternatives&states of natureDecision tables can be used alsoWith several sets of alte
17、rnatives&states of nature(sequential decisions)Decision tables cannot be usedEMV is criterion used most often 决策树Decision Trees231998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.应用决策树来解决问题Analyzing Problems with Decision Trees问题的定义Define the problem绘决策树Structure or draw the decision tree决定不同的决策概率Assign probabilities to th
18、e states of nature计算个别状况的回报Estimate payoffs for each possible combination of alternatives and states of nature计算它的投资回报率Solve the problem by computing expected monetary values for each state-of-nature node241998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.12State 1State 2State 1State 2Alternative 1Alternative 2Decision Dec
19、ision NodeNodeOutcome 1Outcome 1Outcome 1Outcome 2Outcome 2Outcome 2Outcome 3Outcome 3Outcome 3Outcome 4Outcome 4Outcome 4State of Nature NodeState of Nature NodeDecision Tree251998 by Prentice Hall,Inc.决策决策树替代替代方案方案低低(.3)中中(.5)高高(.2)小型小型设备$10$10$10中型中型设备$7$12$12大型大型设备(4)216=0.3x10+10 x0.5+10 x0.2=100.3x7+0.5x12+12x0.2=10.5-0.3x4+2x0.5+16x0.2=3EV/PI大型大型中型中型小型小型低低低低低低中中中中中中高高高高高高-4216712121010100.30.30.30.50.50.50.20.20.2EVPI=0.3x10+0.5x12+0.2x16-10.5=12.2-10.5=1.7310.510