《1月多数品类受春节后移影 响但环比持续改善.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《1月多数品类受春节后移影 响但环比持续改善.docx（26页珍藏版）》请在taowenge.com淘文阁网|工程机械CAD图纸|机械工程制图|CAD装配图下载|SolidWorks_CaTia_CAD_UG_PROE_设计图分享下载上搜索。
1、0 CICC中金公司目录评论完整版4乳制品7速冻米面食品9速冻火锅料食品10肉制品11酱油12复合调味品13白酒14啤酒16方便食品17包装水18茶饮料19果汁饮料20碳酸饮料21坚果炒货22面包23附录1：数据统计方法说明24数据范围24监测样本和抽样原理24全国数据推算方法24图表图表1:可比公司估值表（非酒类）5图表2:可比公司估值表（酒类）6图表3:1月行业销售额同比跌幅扩大，奶粉、液态奶同比降幅低于行业整体，酸奶同比降幅进一步扩大 7图表4:1月各品牌表现继续分化，雅土利奶粉延续较高增长，飞鹤增速由负转正 7图表5: 2021年1月奶粉品牌中飞鹤、合生元、雅土利、菲仕兰、达能、君乐宝
2、、澳优市占率同比上升（销售额）.8 图表6:1月行业受高基数影响，同比跌幅扩大，面食表现优于行业整体 9图表7:1月安井、思念、湾仔、龙凤销售额降幅扩大 9图表8: 2021年1月思念、安井市占率同比提升，三全、湾仔码头、龙凤同比下降（销售额）9图表9: 1月行业增速同比放缓，速冻鱼制品增长快于整体10图表10:1月安井、三全、海霸王销售额保持增长 10图表11: 2021年1月安井、海霸王、三全市占率同比提升（销售额）10图表12:1月行业销售额同比增长由正转负，金锣、Smithfield,双汇销售额同比降幅小于行业整体 11图表13: 2021年1月双汇、金锣实现市占率上升（销售额）11图
3、表14:1月行业销售额同比跌幅扩大，千禾继续保持高增趋势，淘大增速由负转正 12图表15: 2021年1月千禾市占率同比提升（销售额）12图表16: 1月行业销售额同比由正转负，品牌复合调味料表现弱于行业整体 13图表17: 2021年1月海底捞、天味、红99市占率略有下滑（销售额）13图表18: 1月行业销售额同比由正转负，高端酒跌幅小于行业整体 14图表19:1月品牌销售额同比由正转负，郎酒、剑南春、洋河、水井坊、牛栏山、江小白表现优于行业整体 14图表20: 2021年1月洋河、牛栏山、剑南春、郎酒市占率同比提升，贵州茅台、泸州老窖、山西汾酒等市占率同比下 滑，五粮液与去年持平（销售额）
4、15图表21:1月销量及收入同比跌幅扩大，各品牌增速分化明显，惠泉、金威表现亮眼，乌苏、喜力表现优于行业整体16肉制品单位：销售额万元，销售量吨，单价元/公斤图表12:1月行业销售额同比增长由正转负，金锣、Smithfield,双汇销售额同比降幅小于行业整体历史同比增速1历史同比增速22021年1月当月同比环比年初累计同比2020年12月2020年11月4Q2O3Q202Q201Q204Q193Q192Q191Q19全国商超肉制品 销售额363,499.5-30.8%26.5%363,499.5-30.8%1.1%-2.0%0.2%3.3%23.2%48.5%12.4%10.8%8.2%4.1
5、%销售量85,166.7-29.9%21.0%85,166.7-29.9%-2.3%-6.4%-3.9%0.5%23.1%53.6%8.8%6.7%4.5%2.5%单位均价42.7-1.2%4.5%42.7-1.2%3.5%4.7%4.2%2.8%0.0%-3.3%3.2%3.9%3.6%1.5%其中（销售额）： 双汇128,834.5-27.0%16.8%128,834.5-27.0%-2.9%-3.5%-2.0%4.1%29.3%67.3%11.4%7.2%6.2%7.2%雨润16,205.6-48.3%31.7%16,205.6-48.3%-11.9%-16.3%-13.0%6.3%34
6、.0%45.9%7.7%3.5%1.6%2.5%金锣40,316.0-24.0%10.7%40,316.0-24.0%5.0%2.4%5.6%12.3%35.3%63.8%12.3%2.2%-2.7%-2.5%得利斯8,465.6-34.6%59.5%8,465.6-34.6%26.0%6.3%9.6%-1.4%49.0%73.0%12.6%22.0%19.3%2.6%Smithfield2,088.8-25.3%12.9%2,088.8-25.3%-21.7%-10.1%-12.4%9.2%67.3%42.4%23.7%17.5%-12.2%-4.2%资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司
7、研究部图表13:2021年1月双汇、金锣实现市占率上升（销售额）60%50%其他其他双汇金锣雨润得利斯年初累计数据 上年同期累计资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部酱油单位：销售额万元，销售量 吨，单价 元/500ml图表14:1月行业销售额同比跌幅扩大，千禾继续保持高增趋势，淘大增速由负转正2021年1月历史同比增速1荽国商超含油销售额 销售量 单位均价其海厨加珠李欣淘雀味东干中天邦加江锦和大果事古禾鲜月桥记六 达当月同比环比年初累计同比2020年12月2020年11月172,091.6-16.4%15.3%172,091.6-16.4%-3.3%-5.4%123,819.4-12
8、.3%13.7%123,819.4-12.3%-0.8%-2.6%6.9-4.7%1.4%6.9-4.7%-2.5%-2.9%58,462.617,826.34,606.5119.918,247.39,961.1135.9418.94,588.45,294.015,206.9-19.1%-19.7%-33.7%-31.7%-22.5%-27.8%8.2%-42.2%-23.0%-16.8%24.8%13.1%58,462.66.0%17,826.313.2%4,606.570.3%119.915.3%18,247.310.2%9,961.1-0.9%135.910.7%418.9-3.7%4,
9、588.43.9%5,294.015.1%15,206.9-19.1%-3.4%-19.7%-0.1%-33.7%-15.8%-31.7%-41.3%-22.5%-4.8%-27.8%-12.7%8.2%27%-42.2%-9.2%-23.0%-4.8%-16.8%-8.2%24.8%23.7%资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部图表15:2021年1月千禾市占率同比提升（销售额）4Q203Q202Q20历史同比增速22Q191Q191Q204Q193Q19-3.9%1.2%14.8%20.0%5.7%7.3%9.4%9.1%-1.8%3.0%14.5%17.3%5.2%6.7%8.
10、1%7.5%-2.1%-1.8%0.3%2.3%0.5%0.6%1.2%1.5%-3.3%-2.8%5.1%21.6%26.3%5.7%5.3%7.1%9.4%-4.9%-2.8%4.2%12.7%19.0%3.8%7.0%10.6%5.9%-15.9%-14.2%-2.2%9.0%19.3%-5.4%-9.8%-3.6%4.2%-43.4%-47.5%-44.2%-16.6%2.2%1.3%94.4%42.7%97.9%-6.9%-5.9%-3.7%8.4%16.3%1.7%5.7%7.1%9.2%-13.2%-12.5%-11.9%2.0%10.5%1.1%10.1%16.0%13.1%-
11、29.8%-24.9%-45.4%-32.0%-40.0%-36.2%-38.6%-35.1%-38.1%-9.5%-11.8%-17.4%48%-2.6%-16.2%-12.0%-7.4%2.3%-0.6%-6.3%-6.7%12.5%23.5%11.9%16.0%12.9%1.0%-22.2%-15.7%-3.5%4.6%20.5%13.4%11.8%17.0%8.1%20.7%25.0%31.8%51.6%34.0%35.8%46.9%46.4%48.5%年初累计数据上年同期累计资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部复合调味品单位：销售额万元，销售量吨，单价元/500ml图表16
12、:1月行业销售额同比由正转负，品牌复合调味料表现弱于行业整体历史同比增速1历史同比增速22021年1月当月同比环比年初累计同比2020年12月2020年11月4Q203Q202Q201Q204Q193Q192Q191Q19全国商超复合调1 销售额109,900.9-16.8%14.1%109,900.9-16.8%5.3%-1.8%3.7%12.5%37.8%67.0%10.1%19.6%15.1%8.2%销售量29,648.3-14.3%13.5%29,648.3-14.3%3.3%-5.4%0.0%6.2%19.5%48.8%7.6%13.1%12.0%7.5%单位均价18.5-2.9%0
13、.5%18.5-2.9%2.0%3.8%3.7%6.0%15.3%12.2%2.3%5.7%2.8%0.7%其中（销售额）： 海底捞27,892.7-19.5%10.4%27,892.7-19.5%9.6%4.8%11.7%31.8%84.0%95.7%32.5%64.4%46.7%25.8%天味6,593.2-19.2%3.4%6,593.2-19.2%0.4%-6.1%0.5%24.0%73.7%108.0%22.5%45.1%46.1%33.2%红991,044.7-33.5%19.7%1,044.7-33.5%-2.7%-1.5%-1.4%4.4%29.7%59.6%-10.3%11.
14、7%4.2%-2.7%资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部图表17:2021年1月海底捞、天味、红99市占率略有下滑（销售额）年初累计数据上年同期累计资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部白酒单位：销售额万元，销售量吨，单价元/500ml图表18:1月行业销售额同比由正转负，高端酒跌幅小于行业整体历史同比增速工历史同比增速22021年1月当月同比环比年初累计同比2020年12月2020年11月4Q203Q202Q201Q20401930192Q191Q19全国商超白酒 销售额509,442.1-50.2%3.8%509,442.1-50.2%36.4%21.4%28.8%3.
15、2%13.5%-19.3%11.0%15.8%11.7%4.6%销售量39,589.8-38.0%-26.8%39,589.8-38.0%39.3%14.6%24.8%17.1%40.7%-10.6%-3.9%-1.6%-1.5%-4.5%单位均价64.3-19.8%41.9%64.3-19.8%-2.1%5.9%3.2%-11.9%-19.4%-9.7%15.5%17.7%13.4%9.5%主要高端产品53度茅台销售额89,745.5-47.2%-13.6%89,745.5-47.2%45.2%48.9%45.3%5.2%57.9%31.4%58.1%51.7%38.9%21.5%销售量23
16、7.4-57.7%-18.5%237.4-57.7%18.3%13.8%18.3%-21.3%62.0%34.7%76.3%85.6%33.2%21.7%单位均价1,890.124.9%6.0%1,890.124.9%22.8%30.8%22.8%33.6%-2.5%-2.5%-10.3%-18.3%4.3%-0.1%52度五粮液销隹额68,236.4-38.1%24.5%68,236.4-38.1%37.4%17.4%28.9%-5.1%-18.9%-28.9%12.5%31.8%22.1%3.0%销售量299.9-39.2%29.6%299.9-39.2%38.5%19.2%29.6%-6
17、.4%-26.9%-37.2%-5.2%17.2%17.5%3.8%单位均价1,137.61.8%-3.9%1,137.61.8%-0.8%-1.5%-0.6%1.5%10.9%13.1%18.6%12.4%3.9%-0.7%国窖1573销售额2,987.0-23.0%33.2%2,987.0-23.0%13.2%32.4%53.1%89.0%22.0%-32.6%18.0%0.0%30.0%10.0%销售量18.9-22.7%32.5%18.9-22.7%14.9%36.7%56.0%92.8%20.9%-36.4%8.7%-1.7%29.0%19.9%单位均价789.6-0.4%0.6%7
18、89.6-0.4%-1.5%-3.2%-1.8%-2.0%0.9%6.0%8.5%1.7%0.8%-8.2%洋河-梦之蓝销售额12,610.8-39.0%21.1%12,610.8-39.0%101.9%66.0%68.0%27.8%11.9%-4.9%55.1%36.2%32.2%16.3%销售量110.6-34.0%12.1%110.6-34.0%123.2%88.8%85.7%32.5%19.2%-3.3%59.0%32.4%35.1%15.1%单位均价570.3-7.7%8.0%570.3-7.7%-9.6%-12.1%-9.5%-3.5%-6.1%-1.6%-2.4%2.9%-2.2
19、%1.1%山西汾酒-青花销售额1,754.5-46.2%-0.3%1,754.5-46.2%8.1%-10.5%7.8%2.9%-20.6%-20.8%44.8%25.1%60.6%19.6%销售量16.8-49.1%-1.9%16.8-49.1%5.0%64.3%54.8%27.8%-6.2%-16.3%5.9%-28.7%-7.2%-10.2%单位均价523.75.6%1.6%523.75.6%3.0%-45.5%-30.3%-19.5%-15.4%-5.4%36.7%75.6%73.1%33.1%资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部图表19:1月品牌销售额同比由正转负，郎酒、剑
20、南春、洋河、水井坊、牛栏山、江小白表现优于行业整体历史同比增速1历史同比增速22021年1月当月同比环比年初累计同比2020年12月2020年11月4Q203Q202Q201Q204Q193Q192Q191Q19各公司全国商超贵州茅台2销售额97,500.6-54.7%-12.4%97,500.6-54.7%28.5%33.0%27.7%3.0%50.2%17.6%59.1%46.1%33.7%11.1%五粮液87,636.9-50.0%23.1%87,636.9-50.0%26.6%13.0%20.9%-10.3%-17.8%-32.8%7.3%22.4%15.0%-1.4%泸州老窖29,8
21、41.1-53.2%43.7%29,841.1-53.2%5.8%2.4%10.4%6.6%-10.3%-32.7%-9.3%2.3%1.0%-1.7%洋河股份48,532.9-48.3%23.4%48,532.9-48.3%66.0%38.6%48.4%7.0%-2.6%-25.8%9.6%14.0%15.3%9.1%山西汾酒20,340.0-53.1%-1.0%20,340.0-53.1%43.0%26.3%36.7%-1.1%18.0%-31.6%7.3%8.2%20.8%15.0%剑南春17,020.5-39.7%20.9%17,020.5-39.7%39.9%8.5%22.0%-3.
22、5%1.5%-24.3%9.0%22.9%2.6%10.4%郎酒8,760.2-29.6%81.6%8,760.2-29.6%1.1%62.1%26.6%-2.2%-3.2%-33.7%-0.3%2.4%-10.9%-16.1%水井坊2,823.2-47.6%12.8%2,823.2-47.6%24.2%9.4%22.9%-1.7%-8.3%-8.5%63.5%74.2%27.8%-14.5%口子窖2,865.2-50.2%3.2%2,865.2-50.2%114.5%24.9%58.1%-24.9%-28.7%-45.9%-27.3%-19.3%13.1%29.8%老白干酒1,418.5-5
23、3.6%-23.7%1,418.5-53.6%39.0%13.2%26.2%-10.3%6.4%-45.9%-25.7%-15.4%-11.3%-20.9%牛栏山42,858.7-48.4%5.2%42,858.7-48.4%10.5%3.4%13.8%17.5%36.6%0.6%6.5%14.7%5.8%14.4%江小白3,799.4-40.3%-36.8%3,799.4-40.3%15.4%-14.5%-7.3%-15.5%-9.6%-33.9%-22.8%-14.3%-12.2%7.1%今世缘3,236.5-67.6%3.3%3,236.5-67.6%57.1%-0.8%28.8%33.
24、9%20.3%-1.3%59.9%17.8%-8.5%35.0%资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部图表20:2021年1月洋河、牛栏山、剑南春、郎酒市占率同比提升，贵州茅台、泸州老窖、山西汾酒等市占率同比下 滑，五粮液与去年持平（销售额）资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部年初累计数据上年同期累计啤酒单位：销售额万元，销售量吨，单价元/500ml图表21:1月销量及收入同比跌幅扩大，各品牌增速分化明显，惠泉、金威表现亮眼，乌苏、喜力表现优于行业整体历史同比增速工历史同比增速22021年1月当月同比环比年初累计同比2020年12月2020年11月4Q203Q202Q201Q
25、204Q193Q192Q191Q19全国商超啤酒销售额97,270.1-44.0%27.0%97,270.1-44.0%-11.3%-13.7%-11.9%-12.3%-2.7%12.3%8.5%4.6%3.5%6.3%销售量106,510.9-42.6%23.6%106,510.9-42.6%-9.7%-15.6%-13.3%-10.9%-2.5%12.6%12.0%3.1%1.1%5.9%单位均价4.6-2.4%2.7%4.6-2.4%-1.8%2.2%0.0%0.0%-1.7%-0.2%-0.3%-3.2%1.4%2.4%其中（销售额）:华润合计16,131.1-42.1%24.5%16
26、,131.1-42.1%-10.2%-14.9%-11.3%-11.6%-0.6%11.4%1.7%6.5%15.3%10.2%华润雪花11,090.9-58.4%20.0%11,090.9-58.4%-32.5%-35.8%-23.9%-10.1%0.9%13.5%2.1%8.2%17.3%14.8%华润勇闯天涯3,854.9-53.0%27.8%3,854.9-53.0%-31.5%-33.1%-29.1%-25.4%-11.4%10.5%-7.9%-6.1%4.4%8.5%华润superx161.8-37.4%-5.4%161.8-37.4%-7.1%-20.9%-16.6%-19.2%
27、-6.9%17.4%-9.2%-16.8%-0.5%青岛24,835.9-52.4%34.7%24,835.9-52.4%-13.7%-20.5%-14.8%-16.3%-8.7%2.4%5.8%3.7%1.2%0.0%青岛纯生1,617.6-47.9%30.4%1,617.6-47.9%-13.8%-27.9%-18.5%-14.0%-26.2%-19.5%-12.1%-8.4%-2.9%4.5%青岛奥古特1,597.0-70.5%57.9%1,597.0-70.5%-8.7%-9.5%1.5%-14.7%-28.9%-10.7%2.3%0.5%5.3%-5.4%青岛19032,011.1-
28、70.2%33.9%2,011.1-70.2%2.1%-8.3%6.4%2.0%6.1%31.7%46.4%38.4%32.0%13.8%青岛崂山3,628.1-44.8%12.2%3,628.1-44.8%-15.0%-21.1%-19.3%-13.5%-4.2%23.6%12.4%13.3%5.4%-9.2%青岛经典3,906.6-36.3%32.0%3,906.6-36.3%-12.7%-22.7%-14.3%-15.6%-7.1%16.0%19.8%17.6%29.5%45.5%燕京10,328.2-33.0%43.9%10,328.2-33.0%0.2%-15.5%-13.6%6.1
29、%21.3%22.5%22.2%4.1%8.9%26.3%燕京漓泉1,089.2-36.2%-14.1%1,089.2-36.2%1.4%-15.4%-13.3%-17.9%-6.3%-1.0%-5.6%-7.2%9.2%40.1%燕京惠泉55.719.3%120.7%55.719.3%-3.0%-24.9%-20.0%-40.7%-22.3%19.4%-7.7%-58.0%-72.4%-65.2%百威合计11,676.8-40.3%24.1%11,676.8-40.3%-13.8%-9.1%-13.6%-21.3%-4.3%12.5%-1.1%9.9%2.9%10.9%百威7/50.6-49
30、.3%25.3%7,150.6-49.3%-21.7%-18.0%-19.7%-22.6%-4.2%8.7%-2.0%7.2%-1.6%9.1%百威Corona1,322.6-28.5%30.7%1,322.6-28.5%-28.6%0.3%-13.6%-23.2%-1.4%19.1%20.5%39.0%16.6%8.9%百威福佳臼1,033.9-33.8%17.3%1,033.9-33.8%-5.1%-5.4%-3.1%-5.6%22.3%101.6%96.5%67.9%24.2%11.3%百威蓝妹284.0-36.0%19.2%284.0-36.0%9.3%16.5%14.2%-3.1%-
31、11.6%25.9%-25.1%45.9%106.8%68.5%嘉士伯5,287.9-28.1%12.3%5,287.9-28.1%1.5%4.5%6.8%13.9%46.4%116.8%85.9%66.7%20.3%11.4%嘉士伯乌苏2,372.7-5.2%2.2%2,372.7-5.2%40.2%33.3%41.6%59.6%168.6%437.7%403.5%265.6%77.0%-8.1%嘉士伯16641,797.0-33.3%16.9%1,797.0-33.3%-6.3%-7.8%-3.9%-4.1%13.4%78.0%75.6%67.4%34.2%45.1%患上伯大理262.1-
32、20.3%74.9%262.1-20.3%-39.3%-33.4%-27.8%-19.5%17.7%135.4%38.1%41.1%10.2%-28.5%嘉士伯风花雪月12.0-51.3%27.4%12.0-51.3%-47.8%-68.8%-63.6%-48.1%-34.9%-16.0%37.2%25.0%-28.7%5.5%嘉士伯乐堡395.2-47.7%15.9%395.2-47.7%-28.1%-18.6%-21.9%-1.7%12.2%38.8%-5.9%-10.2%-18.2%-8.1%喜力961.9-6.1%11.1%961.9-6.1%23.3%52.3%41.5%33.2%-
33、0.5%-19.3%-31.0%-7.9%-12.0%16.0%珠江1,334.8-31.1%-9.0%1,334.8-31.1%0.8%-3.8%-2.1%-32.0%-32.6%-19.1%-14.6%5.7%6.4%10.9%珠江纯生765.6-37.8%-7.7%765.6-37.8%6.6%8.3%7.9%-26.7%-28.9%-11.1%-11.1%8.5%11.1%11.7%珠江零度265.7-18.6%-1.2%265.7-18.6%-13.5%-26.9%-24.1%-50.2%-54.1%-42.1%-31.9%-14.3%2.4%14.6%金威495.09.2%55.1
34、%495.09.2%-8.6%-11.1%-6.9%-30.0%-19.3%-10.5%-5.2%-12.8%-6.1%8.4%哈尔滨6,736.7-41.3%21.3%6,736.7-41.3%-21.5%-18.0%-19.6%-22.9%-9.5%6.7%-1.0%-5.8%-9.9%1.6%重庆491.8-26.0%64.1%491.8-26.0%-3.2%-1.5%0.3%4.5%60.8%84.3%37.1%20.0%-11.1%-14.6%资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部图表22: 2021年1月燕京、嘉士伯、华润、喜力、百威、珠江市占率同比提升，青岛市占率同比下滑
35、，乐堡、重庆基 本持平（销售额）年初累计数据 上年同期累计资料来源：全国连锁店超市信息网，中金公司研究部方便食品单位：销售额万元，销售量吨，单价元/100g图表23:1月行业销售额同比由正转负，非自热品类（米饭、面食等）销售额延续较高增长历史同比增速1历史同比增速22021年1月当月同比环比年初累计同比2020年12月2020年11月4Q203Q202Q201Q204Q193Q192Q191Q19全国商超方便食品销售额255,137.3-30.4%19.8%255,137.3-30.4%1.1%-5.6%-1.0%-1.4%16.3%62.2%11.2%11.8%12.1%10.4%销售量88
36、,697.1-28.2%18.3%88,697.1-28.2%1.4%-5.4%-1.2%-1.2%13.3%55.9%8.9%7.6%8.2%7.5%巾后便面销售额231,593.2-30.6%19.7%231,593.2-30.6%-0.1%-6.8%-2.8%-4.1%10.9%55.3%6.5%6.9%8.6%7.3%销售量85,028.2-28.4%18.4%85,028.2-28.4%0.6%-6.1%-2.1%-2.4%11.1%53.4%7.2%5.8%6.7%6.3%单位均价2.7-3.1%1.1%2.7-3.1%-0.7%-0.8%-0.7%-1.8%-0.2%1.2%-0
37、.6%1.1%1.8%0.9%自热类销售额21,773.3-32.4%21.0%21,773.3-32.4%8.5%2.6%12.1%27.9%111.2%196.2%114.4%159.1%165.3%165.8%销售量3,318.2-28.0%16.6%3,318.2-28.0%15.2%5.6%15.7%24.9%95.4%157.1%92.5%107.7%107.6%108.0%单位均价6.6-6.1%3.8%6.6-6.1%-5.8%-2.8%-3.1%2.3%8.1%15.2%11.3%24.7%27.8%27.8%非自热品类销售额1,770.8348.9%24.1%1,770.8348.9%51