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1、Thank you for your interest inthis EC LAC publicationECU CPubl cationsJMm u iip yi MMMsa 量 wa&sPlease register if you would like to receive information on our editorialproducts and activities. When you register, you may specify your particularareas of interest and you will gain access to our product
2、s in other formats. cepaLorg/en/publications cepaLorg/en/publicationsfacebook /publicacionesdelacepalH H Among the service producing economies, the ECCU group outperformed the average, with growth of 2.8%. Dominica posted growth of 5.7%, the highest in the subregion, while Angu川a grew by 5.4%. The o
3、ther service producing economies of The Bahamas, Barbados and Jamaica all exhibited sluggish performance. The Bahamas and Jamaica grew by 1.8% and 0.9 % respectively, while Barbados shrank by 0.1%.In 2020 contractions are expected in all Caribbean economies except Guyana, which is expected to grow b
4、y 37.8%, While this is still tremendous growth and the highest forecasted in the world, it is down from pre-pandemic estimates of 85.6%, The remaining goods producers economies will shrink by 7.5%, while the service producers will fall by 8.1%. The largest contraction is estimated in Belize, at 14%.
5、 The service producing economies will be more adversely affected by the COVID-19 restrictions, given their greater dependence on travel and tourism； four of these economies (Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Saint Lucia) are expected to post double-digit contractio
6、ns.Table 2 Caribbean GDP growth rates, 2019-2020 (Percentages)20192020aAngu川a5.4-25.5Antigua and Barbuda4.5-13.8Bahamas1.8-10.5Barbados-0.1-8.8Belize0.3-14.0Dominica5.7-8.7Grenada3.1-12.4Guyana5.437.8Jamaica0.9-5.3Monserrat4.5-4.0Saint Kitts and Nevis2.5-15.1Saint Lucia1.5-18.1Saint Vincent and the
7、Grenadines0.3-6.3Suriname2.1-7.0Trinidad and Tobago-0.4-7.1Caribbean131.0-6.0Goods Producers0.6-2.9Service Producers1.4-8.6Caribbean excluding Guyana0.8-8.1Goods producers excluding Guyana0.1-7.5Source： Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official data.a
8、Forecast.b Aggregates are weighted averages.C. UnemploymentAverage unemployment rates in the Caribbean in 2019 remained unchanged from 2018 at 11.7%, but there were improvements in several countries (see figure 1). Both the Bahamas and Barbados maintained their 2018 rates of 10.7% and 10.1% respecti
9、vely while unemployment decreased in Belize, Grenada, Jamaica and Saint Lucia. The largest declines were seen in the ECCU countries (with available data) of Grenada (5.4 percentage points) and Saint Lucia (3.1 percentage points). Unemployment has been trending downward in this subregion due to the p
10、ick-up in economic activity and implementation of targeted training-based employment creation programmesUnemployment data was not available for Suriname and and Trinidad and Tobago in 2019.Average unemployment rates in the Caribbean in 2019 remained unchanged from 2018 at 11.7%, but there were impro
11、vements in several countries (see figure 1). Both the Bahamas and Barbados maintained their 2018 rates of 10.7% and 10.1% respectively while unemployment decreased in Belize, Grenada, Jamaica and Saint Lucia. The largest declines were seen in the ECCU countries (with available data) of Grenada (5.4
12、percentage points) and Saint Lucia (3.1 percentage points). Unemployment has been trending downward in this subregion due to the pick-up in economic activity and implementation of targeted training-based employment creation programmesUnemployment data was not available for Suriname and and Trinidad
13、and Tobago in 2019.Given the high depenence on tourism among most Caribbean economies, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on emplyment will be severe. Early estimates by ECLAC (2020) indicate that total employment will be reduced by nine percentage points in the Caribbean, compared to two percentag
14、e points in Latin America. Saint Lucia, The Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda and Saint Kitts and Nevis will experience the largest declines in employment, all at over 13 percentage points. Conversely, the goods producing economies of Suriname, Guyana and Trindad and Tobago will experience minimal change
15、s in their total employment (all below one percentage point) as a result of the tourism slowdown.Figure 1 Unemployment rates, 2014-2019 (Percentages)4一 Grenada- * Jamaica一 Saint LuciaTrinidad and Tobago . Caribbean Average - 一 SurinameSource： Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (
16、ECLAC), on the basis of official data.II. Fiscal and debt performanceThis section analyses the recent fiscal performance and the expected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the fiscal response of governments and the implications for the short to medium-term.A. FiscalIn recent years the region has bee
17、n striving to reduce its fiscal deficit as a path to restoring healthy public finances and as a platform for growth and social welfare. The CO VID-19 pandemic is likely to to reverse the gains that Caribbean countries have made towards medium-term fiscal consolidation and debt reduction.In the last
18、five years, the average median deficit declined from 3.0% to 1.5% of GDP, suggesting progress towards fiscal consolidation. The overall fiscal position had stabilized with a median deficit of 1.0% of GDP in 2018, following unbudgeted spending on hurricane relief and reconstruction spending after the
19、 active 2017 season. There was slippage in the fiscal position in 2019 with the median deficit rising to 2.4% of GDP. The deficit increased in the goods-based economies, but declined in the services producers. Among the goods producers, Belize and Guyana registered higher deficits of 2.8% of GDP and
20、 3.6% of GDP, respectively, owing to lower net revenues in Belize and growth in spending that offset higher tax revenues in Guyana. Meanwhile, the deficit contracted to 10.3% of GDP in Suriname and to 2.4% of GDP in Trinidad and Tobago. Despite recent fiscal challenges, Suriname was able to reduce i
21、ts deficit by 1.2 percentage points to 10.3% of GDP in 2019/ due to growth in revenues that offset higher spending.Fiscal performance varied among the service-based economies, influenced in part by the performance of their dominant tourism sector and other services, the impact of natural disasters a
22、nd the importance of the state in the economy. Their median fiscal deficit declined from 0.67% of GDP in 2018 to 0.01% of GDP in 2019. The deficit declined in six economies and increased in the other five. Dominica experienced a spike (13.8%) in its deficit, as a consequence of rehabilitation and re
23、construction spending after Hurricane Maria in 2017. Sizeable increases in the deficit were also recorded in Montserrat (up 5.9 percentage points) and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines(up 4.2 percentage points). Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Grenada, which have undertaken IMF-supported adjustmen
24、t programmes have all posted fiscal surplus in the last three years.Table 3Fiscal balances 2014- 2019(Percentages of GDP)201420152016201720182019Anguilla2.530.44-0.360.560.133.96Antigua and Barbuda-2.782.21-0.38-2.44-3.19-3.32The Bahamas-4.40-3.26-2.60-5.44-3.36-1.68Barbados-7.50-9.16-5.43-4.52-0.30
25、3.69Belize-2.97-8.01-3.35-2.81-0.74-3.55Dominica-1.70-1.7413.88-4.50-7.87-21.66Grenada-4.68-1.191.803.014.914.68Guyana-4.10-1.05-3.41-3.34-2.70-2.78Jamaica-0.52-0.29-0.200.461.200.86Montserrat-6.1618.82-0.361.19-6.52-12.43Saint Kitts and Nevis9.745.904.691.903.229.59Saint Lucia-3.27-2.08-0.50-1.15-0
26、.67-0.01Saint Vincent and the Grenadines-2.06-0.212.19-1.14-1.04-5.27Suriname-4.70-9.81-11.28-9.32-11.46-10.25Trinidad and Tobago-2.51-1.70-5.36-8.88-3.53-2.39Average Caribbean-2.3-0.7-0.7-2.4-2.12.7Goods Producers-3.6-5.1-5.9-6.1-4.6-4.7Service Producers-1.90.91.2-1.1-1.2-2.0Source： Economic Commis
27、sion for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official data.The COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a reversal of efforts towards fiscal consolidation and debt reduction. The pandemic has been a perfect storm for regional governments, leading to loss of revenue, significant growth in
28、necessary fiscal spending and debt for many countries, which were already overleveraged. Across the region government expenditure has increased significantly to provide health equipment and supplies, unempployment and food support and support to small businesses, especially in the badly affected tou
29、rism sector. The first round of spending has been estimated at US$1.3 billion. The Caribbeans fiscal responses have ranged between 0.5% and 5% of GDP. This is expected to lead to increases in the fiscal deficit in some countries by more than 5.0 percentage points.B. DebtPublic debt declined from 69.
30、9% of GDP in 2018 to 67.6% of GDP in 2019 (figure 2 below), reflecting a decline in both foreign and domestic debt. Public debt fell in the service-based economies, from 71.3% of GDP in 2018 to 67.7% of GDP in 2019. This reflected a substantial reversal after growth in public debt to finance rehabil
31、itation and reconstruction following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in some countries in 2017. In line with the winding down of hurricane-induced borrowing, debt contracted by 10.4 percentage points to 49.9% of GDP in Anguilla. Jamaica and Grenada were also able to reduce their debt by 7.6 and 7.4 percen
32、tage points, respectively as they undertook adjustment programmes, withassistance from the IMF. Jamaica cut expenditure by around 2.0%, while posting modest growth in revenues. St. Kitts and Nevis debt stabilised at just over 57% of GDP, as fiscal and debt operations were favourably impacted by infl
33、ows from its Citizen by Investment programme.Figure 2Total public debt, 2019(Percentages of GDP)140120100806020SOPEqBcopocEodSPEEUECOs仁-pel一。puec。u-EPS Ppnqp8 pueeonlCASeppuajoo6eqoj_ pup pppc一Hs n PUCQCRSe=n6u4 scoz0Source： Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)Z on the bas
34、is of official data.Meanwhile, debt increased by 4.3 percentage points in Dominica to 78.7% of GDP, partly due to continued borrowing for reconstructionafter Hurricane Maria. Debt rose by 2.7 percentage points, respectivley in Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname. Borrowing in Trinidad and Tobago was us
35、ed to finance the construction of roads and bridges, a hospital and for budget support among other activities.Increased borrowing across most countries to cope with the pandemic is expected to lead to a spike in public debt in 2020. The increase in debt in countries will vary according to their prio
36、r fiscal strength. Public debt is expected to increase by more thatn 10 percentage points in some of the most severely affected tourism-based economies. Governments in these economies have borrowed to provide reliefto the tourism sector and to citizens who have been affected by the pandemic.C. Debt
37、Service PaymentsIn the Caribbean debt service payments as a proportion of government revenue declined from an average of 33.5% in 2018 to 29.5% in 2019 (see table 4 below), The debt service ratio contracted by 6.4 percentage points in the service-based economies and rose by 0.5 percentage points in
38、the goods-based economies.Among the service producers, there was a dramatic decline in the ratio for The Bahamas from 113.6% in 2018 to 50.9% in 2019, partly reflecting a 47% fall in debt service payments. The debt service payments of Suriname declined by 12.4 percentage points, reflecting an increa
39、se in revenue and grants and a fall in debt service payments. Trinidad and Tobagos debt service to ratio fell by 5.1 percentage points to 15.6% of revenue, as firm growth in revenues (7.9%) had a positive impact on the ratio. The pandemic is expected to lead to rising debt service costs in 2020 sinc
40、e the region has so far gotten little debt relief.Table 4Debt service payment ratios for the Caribbean2015Total Debt Services Payments (percentages of government revenue)2019201620172018Anguilla9.222.321.120.617.3Antigua and Barbuda42.757.462.657.371.1Bahamas38.343.382.8113.650.9Barbados59.6n.a.n.an
41、.an.aBelize27.117.919.217.418.6Dominica14.39.010.710.018.1Grenada23.927.532.427.933.3Guyana13.17.07.17.926.2Jamaica102.843.065.541.739.6Montserrat0.10.10.10.10.2Saint Kitts and Nevis25.511.811.37.96.2Saint Lucia25.126.029.671.443.2Saint Vincent and the Grenadines23.524.327.830.237.1Suriname37.670.23
42、1.442.430.0Trinidad and Tobago9.912.218.620.715.6Caribbean30.226.630.033.529.1Goods Producers21.926.819.122.122.6Service Producers33.226.534.438.131.7Source： Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)Z on the basis of official data.III. Monetary PolicyPrior to the COVID-19 pande
43、mic, overall, monetary policy in the subregion remained unchanged in an environment of high liquidity and low interest rates. Most economies, namely, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and Trinidad and Tobago, left main monetary policy instruments unchange
44、d in 2019, in order to balance the dual objectives of stimulating growth and achieving price stability through fixed or stable exchange rates.Meanwhile, the Bank of Jamaica reduced its policy interest rate on four occasions bringing it to the historic low of 0.50%, The Bank also lowered the cash res
45、erve requirement on two occasions by a cumulative 5.0 percentage points to 7.0%, which increased liquidity in the financial system. In contrast, the Central Bank of Suriname increased the reserve requirement for foreign-currency deposits and required that at least half of commercial banks USD cash d
46、eposits and all Euro deposits be held at the Bank.In the first half of 2020, the Caribbean Central Banks eased monetary policies substantially to facilitate smooth market functioning and weather the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago and ECCU cut their policy ra
47、tes by 5.00%, 1.50% and 4.50%, respectively. In addition, Suriname reduced domestic currency reserve requirement from 35.0% to 27.5% to increase liquidity in the system. The Bank of Jamaica has taken several measures to inject liquidity into the financial system, including commencement of a bond buying programme, re-introduction of a longer-term lending facility and re-activation of t