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1、ISSN 1728-5445SERIESSTUDIES AND PERSPECTIVES99 ECLAC SUBREGIONALHEADQUARTERSFOR THE CARIBBEANEconomic Surveyof the Caribbean2020Facing the challengeof COVID-19Dillon AlleyneSheldon McLeanMichael HendricksonHidenobu TokudaMachel PantinNyasha SkerretteKeron VictorThank you for your interest in this EC
2、LAC publicationECLACPublicationsPlease register if you would like to receive information on our editorialproducts and activities. When you register, you may specify your particular areas of interest and you will gain access to our products in other formats.Register www.cepal.org/en/publications Publ
3、icacioneswww.cepal.org/apps99Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2020Facing the challenge of COVID-19Dillon AlleyneSheldon McLeanMichael HendricksonHidenobu TokudaMachel PantinNyasha SkerretteKeron VictorThis document was prepared by Dillon Alleyne, Deputy Chief; Sheldon McLean, Coordinator of the Econ
4、omic Development Unit; Michael Hendrickson, Economic Affairs Officer; Hidenobu Tokuda, Associate Economic Affairs Officer; Machel Pantin and Nyasha Skerrette, Economic Affairs Assistants; and Keron Victor, consultant with the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) subregiona
5、l headquarters for the Caribbean.The views expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal editing, are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Organization.United Nations publicationISSN: 1728-5445 (electronic version)ISSN: 1727-9917 (print version)
6、LC/TS.2021/1LC/CAR/TS.2021/1Distribution: LCopyright United Nations, 2021All rights reservedPrinted at United Nations, SantiagoS.20-00888This publication should be cited as: D. Alleyne and others, “Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2020: facing the challenge of COVID-19”, Studies and Perspectives ser
7、ies-ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, No. 99 (LC/TS.2021/1-LC/CAR/TS.2021/1), Santiago, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), 2021.Applications for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Economic Commission for Latin
8、America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Documents and Publications Division, publicaciones.cepalun.org. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction.ECLAC - Studies a
9、nd Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 99Economic Survey of the Caribbean.3ContentsAbstract5I.Global and subregional performance7A.Global analysis and performance7B.Caribbean growth performance and prospects8C.Unemployment10II.Fiscal and debt performance11A.Fiscal11B.Debt12C.Debt Service Payments1
10、3III.Monetary Policy15A.Interest Rates15B.Money supply and credit17C.Inflation18IV.External sector developments21A.Tourism arrivals21B.Current account23C.Foreign direct investment24V.COVID-19 focus27A.Lockdown measures27B.Tourism impacts28C.Energy impacts30VI.Conclusion33Bibliography35ECLAC - Studie
11、s and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 99Economic Survey of the Caribbean.4Annex37Annex 138Studies and Perspectives-The Caribbean Series: issues published.71TablesTable 1Global economic performance and prospects, 2018-20208Table 2Caribbean GDP growth rates, 2019-20209Table 3Fiscal balances 2014
12、- 201912Table 4Debt service payment ratios for the Caribbean14Table 5Monetary aggregates and domestic credit to the privateand public sector, 2018-201917Table 6Summary of the COVID-19 impact on the energy sector31FiguresFigure 1Unemployment rates, 2014-201910Figure 2Total public debt, 201913Figure 3
13、Lending rate and deposit rate 201916Figure 4Caribbean Inflation rates , 2014-201919Figure 5Year-on-year growth in tourism stay-over arrivals, 2019-202022Figure 6Year-on-year growth in cruise ship arrivals, 2019-202022Figure 7Current account balance, 201924Figure 8Foreign Direct Investment, 201925Fig
14、ure 9Government response stringency index in the Caribbean,13 March to 30 September 202028Figure 10Loss of direct GDP growth29Figure 11Stayover and cruise tourism expenditure losses by economy, 202030ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 99Economic Survey of the Caribbean.5Abstra
15、ctThis survey examines the economic performance of economies of the Caribbean in 2019 and the first half of 2020 and comprises six chapters. The first chapter gives an overview of global, regional and subregional economic performance in the Caribbean. The second provides an analysis of the subregion
16、s fiscal performance and debt burden. The third looks at monetary policy and their imapcts. The fourth is focused on the external sector. The fifth chapter focuses on the COVID-19 lockdown measures implemented globally as well as in Caribbean countries and their impact on the tourism and energy sect
17、ors, while the sixth chapter concludes. The annex includes individual country briefs which give an overview of the economic situation for the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago and a subregional assessment of the countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Unio
18、n.ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 99Economic Survey of the Caribbean.7I. Global and subregional performanceA. Global analysis and performanceIn 2019 global economic growth was 2.9% (see table 1) and it represented one of the weakest economic performances in a decade. This s
19、lowdown was attribuable to myriad economic factors, which included trade tensions, a downturn in manufacturing as well as global trade and financial market uncertainty. was Contractions in large emerging market economies such as Brazil, India, Mexico and Russia, along with geopolitical tensions in I
20、ran and social unrest in Venezuela, Libya and Yemen also contributed to this weakening of economic activity (IMF 2020a).At the start of the year, the global economy was projected to grow by 3.3% in 2020 (IMF 2020a). Since the rapid global spread of COVID-19 in 2020, uncertainty in economic markets h
21、as risen while projected growth rates have fallen. In April, earlier in the spread of COVID-19, the global economy projection was at -3.0% (IMF2020b). By June, a few more months into the pandemic, the global economy was projected at -4.9% (IMF 2020c), with the growth of advanced economies as well as
22、 emerging and developing countries expected to contract by -8.0% and -3.0%, respectively.The projected decline in growth is set to be realized across both the advanced, and emerging and developing econmies. In the euro area, France, Spain, Italy and United Kingdom are all expected to shrink by 12.5%
23、, 12.8%, 12.8% and 10.2%, respectively. Other major reductions among the advanced economies are expected by the United States of America (8%) and Canada (8.4%). In the emerging and developing group of economies, reduced growth is expected in Brazil, Mexico and South Africa by 9.2%, 9.0% and 8.0%, re
24、spectively. Only China is anticipated to have marginal positive growth of 1.0%.Following this negative performance in 2020, the global economy is projected to grow by 5.4% in 2021. This increase is expected to be led by the contribution towards growth by emerging and developing markets of 5.9%. Adva
25、nced economies are also expected to grow by 4.8% in 2021. Improvements in the world trade in goods and services are expected to make significant contribution to the global economy. World trade in goods and services growth are projected to be 7.2% and 9.4% in advanced and emerging and development eco
26、nomies, respectively.ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 99Economic Survey of the Caribbean.8The region of Latin America and the Caribbean was expected to grow by 1.3% in 2020 (ECLAC 2019). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, has now significantly reduced this project
27、ion to -9.1%. A major contributory factor to decline in this growth rate, for the region, is the projected performances of the larger economies. Mexicos growth is expected to contract by 9.0% primarily due to falling oil prices among other macro-economic issues. Argentina is expected to shrink by 10
28、.5% because of extended quarantine practices as well as falling external demand and commodity prices. High levels of uncertainty will cause Brazils growth rates to fall by 9.2%. Another contributing factor to this expected reduction in growth within the region comes from the current impact of COVID-
29、19 on the Caribbeans tourism and commodities market. The Caribbeans tourism market is linked to the economic performances of the advanced economies in Europe and the North America. As these economies remain in recession, there is likely to be contraction in the tourism sector throughout the Caribbea
30、n. Although borders are gradually reopening in the region, regularized tourist arrivals are expected to occur over time. In addition to tourist-based economies, commodity exporters in the region will also experience negative growth rates because of contraction in in exports and fiscal revenues.It is
31、 anticipatedthat the health situation will improve, and this will result in an expected recovery for 2021. With health improvement alongside macro-economic policies tailored to fuel recovery, the region is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2021.Table 1Global economic performance and prospects, 2018-2020(P
32、ercentages)201820192020European Union1.91.3-10.2Advanced Economies2.21.7-8.0United States2.92.3-8.0Latin America and the Caribbean1.10.1-9.1Emerging market and Developing countries4.53.7-3.0World3.62.9-4.9Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, June 2020, Economic Commi
33、ssion forLatin America and the Caribbean, 2020b.Note: Projections for 2020.B. Caribbean growth performance and prospectsThe Caribbean economies grew by 1.0% in 2019, down from 1.4% in the previous year. Growth among the goods producing economies1 was 0.6%, while the service producers grew by 1.4%.Th
34、e goods producers were constrained by a contraction of 0.4% in their largest member, Trinidad and Tobago. This contraction, which marked the fourth straight year of negative growth for the country, was mainly due to weak energy sector performance caused by the closure of the Petrotrin refinery in la
35、te 2018 as well as lower yield from mature energy fields. Guyana had the highest growth rate in this group (5.4%) as energy sector investments flowed in, in advance of its commencement of oil production in 2020.1 The goods producing economies are Belize, Guyana, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago. The
36、 service producing economies are Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 99Economic Survey of the Caribbean.9Among the servic
37、e producing economies, the ECCU group outperformed the average, with growth of 2.8%. Dominica posted growth of 5.7%, the highest in the subregion, while Anguilla grew by 5.4%. The other service producing economies of The Bahamas, Barbados and Jamaica all exhibited sluggish performance. The Bahamas a
38、nd Jamaica grew by 1.8% and 0.9 % respectively, while Barbados shrank by 0.1%.In 2020 contractions are expected in all Caribbean economies except Guyana, which is expected to grow by 37.8%. While this is still tremendous growth and the highest forecasted in the world, it is down from pre-pandemic es
39、timates of 85.6%. The remaining goods producers economies will shrink by 7.5%, while the service producers will fall by 8.1%. The largest contraction is estimated in Belize, at 14%. The service producing economies will be more adversely affected by the COVID-19 restrictions, given their greater depe
40、ndence on travel and tourism; four of these economies (Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Saint Lucia) are expected to post double-digit contractions.Table 2Caribbean GDP growth rates, 2019-2020(Percentages)20192020aAnguilla5.4-25.5Antigua and Barbuda4.5-13.8Bahamas
41、1.8-10.5Barbados-0.1-8.8Belize0.3-14.0Dominica5.7-8.7Grenada3.1-12.4Guyana5.437.8Jamaica0.9-5.3Monserrat4.5-4.0Saint Kitts and Nevis2.5-15.1Saint Lucia1.5-18.1Saint Vincent and the Grenadines0.3-6.3Suriname2.1-7.0Trinidad and Tobago-0.4-7.1Caribbeanb1.0-6.0Goods Producers0.6-2.9Service Producers1.4-
42、8.6Caribbean excluding Guyana0.8-8.1Goods producers excluding Guyana0.1-7.5Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official data.a Forecast.b Aggregates are weighted averages.ECLAC - Studies and Perspectives series-The Caribbean No. 99Economic Survey
43、of the Caribbean.10C. UnemploymentAverage unemployment rates in the Caribbean in 2019 remained unchanged from 2018 at 11.7%, but there were improvements in several countries (see figure 1). Both the Bahamas and Barbados maintained their 2018 rates of 10.7% and 10.1% respectively while unemployment d
44、ecreased in Belize, Grenada, Jamaica and Saint Lucia. The largest declines were seen in the ECCU countries (with available data) of Grenada (5.4 percentage points) and Saint Lucia (3.1 percentage points). Unemployment has been trending downward in this subregion due to the pick-up in economic activi
45、ty and implementation of targeted training-based employment creation programmes2.Given the high depenence on tourism among most Caribbean economies, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on emplyment will be severe. Early estimates by ECLAC (2020) indicate that total employment will be reduced by nine percentage points in the Caribbean, compared to two percentage points in Latin America. Saint Lucia, The Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda and Saint Kitts and Nevis will experience the largest declines in employment, all at over 13 percentage poi