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1、Multinational Financial Management（跨国公司财务管理）ch06 Analyzing Country RiskPART I.THE MEASUREMENT OF POLITICAL RISKI.MEASURING POLITICAL RISKA.Country-specific perspectiveTHE MEASUREMENT OF POLITICAL RISKB.Political Stability 1.Measured by:a.Frequency of government changesb.Level of violencec.Number of
2、armed insurrectionsd.Conflict with other statesTHE MEASUREMENT OF POLITICAL RISKC.Economic Factors1.Indicators of political unresta.Rampant inflationb.Balance of payment deficitsc.Slowed growth of per capita GDPTHE MEASUREMENT OF POLITICAL RISKD.Subjective Factors1.Profit Opportunity Recommendation
3、2.Political Risk and Uncertain Property RightsPART II.ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORSII.Economic and Political FactorsPrimary focus:How well is the country doing economically?A.Fiscal Irresponsibility-high government deficitsB.Monetary InstabilityC.Controlled Exchange Rate System-currency usually ove
4、rvaluedD.Wasteful Government Spending-inability to service foreign debtECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORSD.Resource Base-lack of strong work ethicE.Country Risk and Adjustment to External Shocks1.What are the impacts of external shocks:-how well a nation responds variesECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORS2.Ke
5、y Indicators of Country Riska.Relative size of government debtb.Money expansionc.Existence of government-imposed barriers to market forcesECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORS2.Key Indicators of Country Risk(cont)d.Level of tax ratese.Amount of government-owned firmsf.Political and fiscal responsibilityg.A
6、mount and extent of corruptionECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORS3.Key indicators of economic healtha.Structural incentivesb.Legal structurec.Clear incentives to saved.Open economye.Stable macroeconomic policiesPART III.COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS IN INTERNATIONAL BANKINGI.Country Risk and the Terms of TradeII
7、.What ultimately determines a nations ability to repay foreign loans?III.-the speed of adjustmentIV.COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS IN INTERNATIONAL BANKINGII.The Governments Cost/Benefit CalculusIII.-debt to wealth ratioIV.-cost of defaultV.-fluctuations in the terms of tradeCOUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS IN INTERNATIONAL BANKINGIII.Lessons from the International Debt Crisis of 1982Economic reforms that work:Strong head of stateViable economic planCompetent economic teamSupport“at the top”Sell the program to all levels of society