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1、Analyzing Country Risk CHAPTER 6第一页，共十六页。PART I. THE MEASUREMENT OF POLITICAL RISKI. MEASURING POLITICAL RISKA.Country-specific perspective第二页，共十六页。THE MEASUREMENT OF POLITICAL RISKB. Political Stability 1. Measured by:a.Frequency of government changesb.Level of violencec.Number of armed insurrectio
2、nsd.Conflict with other states第三页，共十六页。THE MEASUREMENT OF POLITICAL RISKC.Economic Factors1.Indicators of political unresta.Rampant inflationb.Balance of payment deficitsc.Slowed growth of per capita GDP第四页，共十六页。THE MEASUREMENT OF POLITICAL RISKD.Subjective Factors1.Profit Opportunity Recommendation
3、 2.Political Risk and Uncertain Property Rights第五页，共十六页。THE MEASUREMENT OF POLITICAL RISK3. Capital Flighta.Definition:the export of savings by a nations citizens because of safety-of-capital fears.b.Measurement: use the balance-of- payment account第六页，共十六页。THE MEASUREMENT OF POLITICAL RISKc.Causes o
4、f capital flight1.)Inappropriate economic policies2.)Expectation of devaluation3.)High political risk第七页，共十六页。PART II. ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORSII.Economic and Political FactorsPrimary focus: How well is the country doing economically?A. Fiscal Irresponsibility-high government deficitsB. Moneta
5、ry InstabilityC. Controlled Exchange Rate System-currency usually overvaluedD. Wasteful Government Spending-inability to service foreign debt第八页，共十六页。ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORSD. Resource Base-lack of strong work ethicE. Country Risk and Adjustment to External Shocks1.What are the impacts of ext
6、ernal shocks:-how well a nation responds varies第九页，共十六页。ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORS2. Key Indicators of Country Riska.Relative size of government debtb.Money expansionc.Existence of government-imposed barriers to market forces第十页，共十六页。ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORS2.Key Indicators of Country Risk
7、 (cont)d.Level of tax ratese.Amount of government-owned firmsf.Political and fiscal responsibilityg.Amount and extent of corruption第十一页，共十六页。ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORS3. Key indicators of economic healtha. Structural incentivesb.Legal structurec.Clear incentives to saved.Open economye.Stable mac
8、roeconomic policies第十二页，共十六页。PART III. COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS IN INTERNATIONAL BANKINGI.Country Risk and the Terms of TradeWhat ultimately determines a nations ability to repay foreign loans?- the speed of adjustment第十三页，共十六页。COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS IN INTERNATIONAL BANKINGII.The Governments Cost/Benef
9、it Calculus- debt to wealth ratio- cost of default- fluctuations in the terms of trade第十四页，共十六页。COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS IN INTERNATIONAL BANKINGIII. Lessons from the International Debt Crisis of 1982Economic reforms that work:Strong head of stateViable economic planCompetent economic teamSupport “at the top”Sell the program to all levels of society第十五页，共十六页。内容(nirng)总结Analyzing Country Risk。1. Profit Opportunity Recommendation。safety-of-capital fears.。1.)Inappropriate economic policies。d.Open economy。e.Stable macroeconomic policies第十六页，共十六页。