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1、International Trade*主要参考书1、国际贸易、国际贸易 海闻海闻 上海人民出版社上海人民出版社2、国际经济学、国际经济学 保罗保罗 克鲁格曼克鲁格曼 中国人民大中国人民大学学（国际贸易部分）（国际贸易部分）3、*Chapter 1 Introductionn1.1 Brief History of International Traden1.2 International Trade Fundamentalsn1.3 Introduction to International Trade Theories*1.1 Brief History of International
2、Trade1.”International”+”Trade”2.Brief History3.New development in international trade 4.International trade and economy growth*1.2 International Trade FundamentalsnValue of trade 贸易额（贸易值）Vsquantum of trade(贸易量)nRatio of Dependence On Foreign Trade(贸易依存度贸易依存度)*我国外贸依存度变化我国外贸依存度变化年年 份份1975 1980 1982 19
3、97 2000依存度依存度5.4%15.3%8.2%40%43.9%*balance of trade (BT)贸易差额贸易差额nDefinition：BT=ex im na favorable balance of trade,excess of export 贸易顺差nan unfavorable balance of trade,excess of import,deficit,overimport 贸易逆差nIs huge trade surplus good or bad for a country?*ncomposition of trade贸易商品结构ntrade by regi
4、on贸易地理结构nvisible/Tangible tradeninvisible/Intangible tradenGeneral trade，总贸易nSpecial trade,专门贸易nTerms of Trade(TOT)贸易条件n=Px/Pm*100*1.3 Introduction to International Trade Theoriesn1.Free Trade Vs.Trade Protectionismn2.Brief Introduction to Trade Theories*TRADE THEORIESEarly Trade TheoriesThe Classic
5、al Theory of Trade 1.Absolute Advantage and the Smith Model2.Comparative Advantage and the Ricardian Model Neoclassical Trade Theory 3.Factor Endowment and the Basic Heckscher-Ohlin Model 4.Extensions and Implications of the H-O Model 5.Specific Factor Model Modern Trade Theories6.Imperfect Competit
6、ion and Economies of Scale7.Product Cycle8.Demand-side Theories9.New Development in International Economics*THEORETICAL ISSUES:Why do countries trade?Gain from tradeWhat are the bases for trade?Price differences Supply side(cost):TechnologyFactor endowmentProduction scale Demand side:IncomePreferenc
7、eWhat are the impacts of trade?On price,production,consumption,and welfareWhat are the changes in trade pattern?Explaining the dynamic changes in trade pattern*Mercantilism Time period:1500-1750Main ideas:Nations Wealth=Countrys holdings of precious metalsExport is a gain(gain precious metals);impor
8、t is a loss(lose precious metals)Trade is a“Zero-sum Game”:one country gain is a loss of another countryPolicies:Build up the power of a nation-state:strong army,strong navy,and merchant marineMaintain a positive trade balance:export importnPromote export and restrict import*Davis Hume:the Price-Spe
9、cie-Flow Mechanism Given sufficient time,an automatic trade balance adjustment would take place between a trade surplus country and a trade deficit country by means of the following steps:*THE SMITH MODELnBasic Assumptionsn One input:Labor(L)nTwo outputs:e.g.Wheat(QW)and Cloth(QC)nTwo Countries:e.g.
10、US and ChinanDifferent technologies different productivity of labornFull Employment,Perfect Competition,and Constant return to Scale*Basis for Trade Difference in TechnologyProductivity Production cost Commodity priceMeasurements of absolute advantage:*A numerical example*Measurements of Absolute Ad
11、vantageIn Terms of Productivity:(Q/L)Cloth WheatChina 1.00.5U.S.0.81.0In Terms of Production Cost:(L/Q)ClothWheatChina1.02.0U.S1.251.0In this case,China has an absolute advantage in producing cloth and the US has an absolute advantage in growing wheat.*Gains from TradeClothWheatChina5025U.S.40 50In
12、Autarky(Assumption)Free Trade(Assumption)ClothWheatChina 100(50+)0U.S.0100(50+)5050+25+10*Pattern of Production&Trade n-each country should specialize in and export the Product in which it has an absolute advantagenIn this case,China should be specialized in production of cloth and US should produce
13、 wheat.China should export cloth and import wheat.US should import cloth and export wheat*Limitation In this case,the US has the absolute advantage in both goods(it is very common for a developed country to have absolute advantages in most sectors).According to the Smith theory,there will be no trad
14、e.？*Comparative Advantage*THE RICARDIAN MODEL Basic Assumptions The same as the Smith ModelBasis for Trade DifferencesinTechnologies(inrelativeterm)RelativeproductivityRelativeproductioncostRelativecommodityprice*Measurements of Comparative Advantage:*Effects of Trade：Generalequilibriumanalysis:auta
15、rky(self-sufficient)equilibriumtradeequilibrium*-trade triangle 贸易三角贸易三角-Welfare:gains from allocation(配配置所得置所得)*trade gains from exchange 交换所得交换所得 *trade gains from specification 分工分工所得所得*Pattern of Production and Trade-eachcountryshouldspecializeinandexporttheProductinwhichithasacomparativeadvanta
16、ge*Solution for Smith Models PuzzleChinaU.S.Cloth100150Wheat50100InTermsofRelativeLaborProductivityofCloth(QC/QW)China=100/50 (QC/QW)U.S =150/100*ExceptionChinaU.S.Cloth100 Wheat50100200150*Comparative Advantage with Many Goods or Many CountriesMany Countries and Two Goods-Setting up the model:list
17、relative costs by order*-Deriving the relative supply-Determining the relative price-Determining the comparative advantages*Many Goods and Two Countries n-Setting up the model:list relative productivity by ordern-Deriving the relative demand for labor-Determining the relative wage-Determining the co
18、mparative advantages*Heckscher-Ohlin theorynIn the real world,while trade is partly explained by differences in labor productivity,it also reflects differences in countries resources.nThe Heckscher-Ohlin theory:nEmphasizes resource differences as the only source of tradenShows that comparative advan
19、tage is influenced by:nRelative factor abundance(refers to countries)nRelative factor intensity(refers to goods)nIs also referred to as the factor-proportions theory*Heckscher-Ohlin Theory of Trade A country will export products that use relatively intensively those production factors found relative
20、ly abundantly in the country,and import products that use relatively intensively those production factors that are relatively scarce in the country.H-O comparative advantage is actually a triple comparison:nacross countriesnacross productsnacross factors of production*n生产要素禀赋（factor factor endowment
21、endowment）：生产要素在一个地区中的天然供给状况。n要素丰裕度（factor factor abundanceabundance）不同国家或地区几种要素拥有总量的相对比例。*factor intensity要素密集度n生产某产品投入不同要素的相对密集程度（针对产品而言）则则X为劳动密集型产品，为劳动密集型产品，Y为资本密集型产品为资本密集型产品The H-O Model nThe Basic H-O ModelnGeneral Equilibrium AnalysisnPartial Equilibrium AnalysisnLeontiefs Paradox(里昂惕夫之谜)*The
22、Basic H-O ModelnBasic AssumptionsnTwo inputs(factors):Labor(L)and Capital(K)nTwo outputs:Rice(R)and Steel(S)nTwo Countries,e.g.US and ChinaDifferent proportion of factor endowment:(K/L)US (K/L)ChinanInvariable factor Endowments&PPCnSame TechnologynUS is a capital-abundant country and China is a labo
23、r-abundant countrynFull Employment,Perfect Competition and Constant return to Scale*Basis for Trade Differentrelativefactorendowments(differentproportion)differentrelativefactorpricesdifferentrelative production costs differentrelativepricesofproductsComparative advantage in producing exporttheprodu
24、ctthatusesitsabundantrecourseintensively(lowerrelativecost)*Pattern of Production and TradenA country should produce more and export the product that uses its abundant recourse intensively,and import the product that uses its scarce recourse intensively.In this case,US should export steel and China
25、should export rice.*General Equilibrium Analysis:n Determination of the free trade relative prices(Terms of Trade,TOT)nEffects on domestic production,consumption,relative price of goods*Gain from trade:measured by changes in CIC(social welfare level)*Partial Equilibrium Analysis:Determination of the
26、 free trade price*Effects on domestic production,consumption,and the price of goods nWelfare changes in producers and consumers:measured by changes inProducer Surplus(PS，生产者剩余)and Consumer Surplus(CS，消费者剩余)nGain from trade:measured by the net national gain(loss)*Import Industry-SteelSmall country vs
27、 large countryPrice Production consumption*Export Industry-Rice*Test for the HO Theory-Leontiefs paradoxnWassily W.Leontief:the input-output analysis nExpect to prove:1.The HO Theory is correct;2.As we know,USA is the most capital abundant country in the world by any criterion and should export capi
28、tal-intensive commodities while import labor-intensive commodities.nResult:Paradoxial*nLeontief found that U.S.exports were less capital-intensive than U.S.imports,even though the U.S.is the most capital-abundant country in the world.*nLeontiefs Second Test 学者 数据年份(Kx/Lx)/(Km/Lm)=(H-O预测:1)Whitney，19
29、6818991.12Leontiev，195419470.77Leontinv，19561947/510.94(或不包括自然资源行业，1.14)Baldwin，19711958/620.79(或不包括自然资源行业，0.96)19721.05(或不包括自然资源行业，1.08)Trade Patterns of Other Countries nJAPAN nCANADA nINDIA*Explanations for the LP nFactor Intensity Reversal(生产要素密集型逆转)nTrade BarriersnSkills and human capital（人力资本）
30、nNatural resources*Chapter 4 Neo-Classical Trade Model:Extensions&Applicationsn4.1 International trade and returns to factors（生产要素收益）n4.1.1 Effects of Trade on Factor Prices in Each Country nThe Stolper-Samuelson(S-S)TheoremnMagnification Effect(放大效应)nEffects of Trade on Factor Prices in Both Countr
31、ies nThe Factor Price Equalization Theorem n4.2 Economy growth and trade*4.1.1 Effects of Trade on Factor Prices in Each CountrynShort-Run(nofactorsaremobileamongsectors)Returntofactors:W=P*MPL,R=P*MPkReturnstofactoraredeterminedbychangesinProductPriceNochangesinmarginalproductivityoffactorPrice of
32、export product,both factors in the exportsectorgainPriceofimport-competingproduct,bothfactorsintheimport-competingloss*Long-Run(all factors are able to move among sectors)nThe Stolper-Samuelson(S-S)Theorem Free trade raises the return to the factor used intensively in the rising-price sector(export
33、sector)and lowers the return to factor used intensively in the falling-price(import competing sector)nMagnification Effect Changes in returns to factors are greater than the changes in product prices*The Factor Price Equalization Theorem nUnder the assumptions of H-O model,free trade will equalize n
34、ot only commodity prices but also factor prices.All labors will earn the same wage rate and all units of capital(or land)will earn the same profit(or rental returns)in both countries regardless of the factor supplies or the demand patterns in the two countries.*International Factor PriceEqualization
35、With the shift to free trade:For each factor,its rate of return becomes more similar between countries.Under ideal conditions,its real rate of return is the same in different countries.Example:Labor.*International Factor PriceEqualizationWith no trade,the wage rate is high in the labor-scarce countr
36、y.The wage rate is low in the labor-abundant country.With free trade,the import of labor-intensive products pushes the wage-rate down in the labor-scarce country.The export of labor-intensive products pulls the wage rate up in the labor-abundant country.*Economic Growth:nIs economic growth in other
37、countries good or bad for our nation?nIt may be good for our nation because it means larger markets for our exports.nIt may mean increased competition for our exporters.nIs growth in a country more or less valuable when that nation is part of a closely integrated world economy?nIt should be more val
38、uable when a country can sell some of its increased production to the world market.nIt is less valuable when the benefits of growth are passed on to foreigners rather than retained at home*nGrowth and the Production Possibility FrontiernEconomic growth implies an outward shift of a countrys producti
39、on possibility frontier(TT).nBiased growthnTakes place when TT shifts out more in one direction than in the othernCan occur for two reasons:nTechnological progress in one sector of the economy nIncrease in a countrys supply of a factor of production*TT1TT1TT2TT2Cloth production,QCFood production,QF(
40、a)Growth biased toward clothCloth production,QCFood production,QF(b)Growth biased toward food*Growth and Trade nDefinition of Growth and Types of Growth nIncreases in factor endowments vs.Factor-saving technological progressnBiased economic growth（不平衡增长）（不平衡增长）:Export Expanding(EE，出口扩张型)Growth vs.Im
41、port Replacing(IR，进口替代型)Growth nLarge countries Vs small countries*nExport-biased growthnDisproportionately expands a countrys production possibilities in the direction of the good it exportsnWorsens a growing countrys terms of trade,to the benefit of the rest of the worldnImport-biased growthnDispr
42、oportionately expands a countrys production possibilities in the direction of the good it importsnImproves a growing countrys terms of trade at the rest of the words expense*IR Growth-a Small Country TOT,Production,Trade,Welfare*IR Growth-a Large Country(TOT,Production,Trade,Welfare)*EE Growth-a Sma
43、ll Country TOT,Production,Trade,Welfare*Cases:Dutch Disease(荷兰病)nCause?nNew Economy in U.S.*EE Growth-a Large Country(TOT,Production,Consumption,Trade,Welfare)*a special case:“Immiserizing Growth”福利恶化型增长*Small countryLarge countryIRTOTTOTProduction:Import Sector Export SectorProduction:Import Sector
44、 Export SectorTrade:TradeWelfare:Welfare:EETOTTOTProduction:Import Sector Export SectorProduction:Import Sector Export SectorTrade:TradeWelfare:Welfare:Rybczyski Theorem and Dutch DiseaseImmiserizing Growth*The Specific Factor Model(特定要素模型)nBasic AssumptionsnThree inputs(factors):nMobile factor:Labo
45、r(L)nSpecific Factors:Capital(K)and Land(T)nTwo outputs:nManufacture(QM)n Food(QF)*Chapt.5 Modern Trade Theoriesn5.1 Modern Trade Facts5.1.1RiseofIntra-industryTrade（产业内贸易）-Intra-industrialTrade(IIT)IndexWhenthereisaperfectIntra-industrialTrade,IIT=1;Whenthereisnotrade,IIT=0.5.1.2 Increase in Trade
46、between developedcountries5.1.3ChangesinIndustrialLeadership(产业领先地位)*ChangesinIndustrialLeadershipnTextilesnTVnCarnSteelnSemiconductor*5.2 Imperfect Competition and International Trade nThe Theory of Imperfect Competition:A Brief Review nImperfect Competition and Price Discrimination（价格歧视/价格差异）Price
47、 DiscriminationAssumption:imperfect competitive firm or monopolistic competitive firm;two markets totally divided;different demand in two markets.*nDumping and International Trade nReciprocal Dumping and Intra-industrial Trade*ExampleDomestic Market1000 Units P=20$To increase 1 unit in sale,P 1 cent
48、19.99*1001-1000*20=9.99MRd=9.99$Foreign Market100 Units P=15$14.99*101-15*100=13.99MRf=13.99$*5.3 Economy of Scale 规模规模经济经济and International Trade*Economy of ScalenEconomies of Scale:n External外部规模经济nInternal 内部规模经济*5.4 Product Cycle*Chapt.6 INTERNATIONAL FACTOR MOVEMENTS n6.1 INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENT
49、 OF LABOR nGeneral SituationnType of International Labor MovementnContract Worker 外籍劳工nImmigration 移民nWelfare Effects on Firms,Workers,and the Whole Economy*6.3 MultinationalsnTheory of MultinationalsnLocation Resources,transportation costs,trade barriersnInternalization Technology transfer,vertical
50、 integration,etc*nDevelopment of Multinationals Virtually all of international trade in manufactures and services is done via multinationals.1/3 is done within a firm,1/3 is done at arms length in which both sides are MNCs and 1/3 is done at arms length in which one side is an MNC*nRole of multinati