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1、合合肥肥三三洋洋DCFDREAVG.#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!Growth rate0%10-year treasurary yield3.68%tax rate#DIV/0!NOPM#DIV/0!Rev./Asset#DIV/0!Equity Risk Permium(%)5%RE growth%2%0.000.00Growth rate10-year treasurary yieldtax rateNOPMRev./AssetEquity Risk Permium(%)RE growth%0.000.00Growth rate10-year treasurar
2、y yieldtax rateNOPMRev./AssetEquity Risk Permium(%)RE growth%0.000.00Growth rate10-year treasurary yieldtax rateNOPMRev./AssetEquity Risk Permium(%)RE growth%Average Stock Value#DIV/0!Safety index()#DIV/0!合合肥肥三三洋洋Intrinsic Stock Value by DRE#DIV/0!Quantitative grade#DIV/0!Company TickerHFSYIntrinsic
3、 Stock Value by DCF#DIV/0!Excess Return Period(years)10.00Depreciation Rate(%of Rev.)#DIV/0!Rev.(mil.)0.00Investment Rate(%of Rev.)#DIV/0!Growth Rate(%)0.00%Working Capital(%of Rev.)#DIV/0!Net Operating Profit Margin(%)#DIV/0!Short-Term Assets(mil.)1,814.02Tax Rate(%)#DIV/0!Short-Term Liabilities(mi
4、l.)1,421.39Stock Price19.26Equity Risk Permium(%)5.00%Shares Outstanding(mil.)333.00Company Beta()10-year Treasury Yield(%)3.68%Standard DeviationBond Spread to Treasury(%)Company WACC(%)#DIV/0!Perferred Stock Yield(%)Value of Pref.Stock Out(mil.)Value of Debt out(mil.)Cost of Common Equity10-year T
5、reasury Bond Yield(%)3.68%Company Specific Beta0.00Equity Risk Premium(%)5.00%Cost of Common Equity3.68%Market Capitalization and After Tax Weighted Average Cost of CapitalCurrent YieldAfter Tax YieldMarket Value%CapitalizationWACC YieldLong-Term Debt#DIV/0!0.000.00%#DIV/0!Perferred Stock0.00%0.000.
6、00%0.00%Common Stock3.68%3.68%6,413.58100.00%3.68%6,413.58100.00%#DIV/0!Comparason with industryTRREPS Growth%Dividend Ratio%P/EEPS/EP/A#DIV/0!青青岛岛海海尔尔1.2030.00%0.68%25.6412.14%4.56小小天天鹅鹅A A0.9035.69%0.00%39.4612.00%4.54合合肥肥三三洋洋0.9027.00%0.67%30.8816.18%7.29EPS growth indexYear2009200820072006EPS0.6
7、20.350.200.15E2.391.951.731.62EPS/E25.94%17.95%11.56%9.26%EPS Growth%77.14%75.00%33.33%EPS/E AVG.16.18%EPS CAGR42.59%QuarterlyQ4Q3Q2Q1Q409Q3EPS growth%46%52%77%91%Sales growth indexYearly2009200820072006Sales2,021.731,082.73634.66510.78Growth%87%71%24%CAGR41%QuarterlyQ4Q3Q2Q1Q409Q3Sales growth%83%90
8、%87%80%RES growth indexYearly2009200820072006Retained Earnings345.91201.22127.5892.90Shares outstanding333.00333.00333.00333.00RES1.040.600.380.28Growth%72%58%37%CAGR38.91%QuarterlyQ4Q3Q2Q1Q409Q3Retained Earnings471.94427.40345.91294.26Shares outstanding333.00333.00333.00333.00RES#DIV/0!#DIV/0!1.421
9、.281.040.88Growth%90%122%74%78%Q2Q1Q409Q399.0583.10483.10462.441372.90344.29262.81231.82471.94427.40345.91294.26333.00333.00333.00333.001.421.281.040.88P/CE/AOM/SMShare outstanding8.5728.02%25.77%1,338.5212.5142.64%20.62%547.6618.6337.89%33.36%333.00Q2Q179%55%Q2Q172%72%Q2Q1Q408Q3Q2Q1248.52192.81199.
10、22165.23145.30162.36333.00333.00333.00333.00333.00333.000.750.580.600.500.440.4971%19%Q2Q1Q408Q3Q2Q162.44162.44162.44150.9550.9550.95186.08130.37136.78114.2994.35111.41248.52192.81199.22165.23145.30162.36333.00333.00333.00333.00333.00333.000.750.580.600.500.440.49Latest Year200920082007Revenue(mil)G
11、rowth#DIV/0!#DIV/0!CAGR#DIV/0!Est.growth rate10 years growth forecastYearReve.Rev.growthGrowth rate%20090.0020100.000.0020110.000.0020120.000.0020130.000.0020140.000.0020150.000.0020160.000.0020170.000.0020180.000.0020190.000.003years ROA recordYearRev.AssetRev./Asset20090.00#DIV/0!20080.00#DIV/0!20
12、070.00#DIV/0!AVG.#DIV/0!3years Equity/Asset recordYearE/A200920082007AVG.0.00%10 years growth forecastYearReve.Rev./AssetAssetE/AEquity20090.0020100.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%#DIV/0!20110.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%#DIV/0!20120.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%#DIV/0!20130.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%#DIV/0!20140.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0
13、!0.00%#DIV/0!20150.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%#DIV/0!20160.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%#DIV/0!20170.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%#DIV/0!20180.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%#DIV/0!20190.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%#DIV/0!3years NOPM recordYearReve.CGSSGAR&DNOPNOPM20090.000.00#DIV/0!20080.000.00#DIV/0!20070.000.00#DIV/0!Avg.NOPM#DIV/0!10
14、 years growth forecastYearReve.NOPMNOP est.20090.0020100.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20110.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20120.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20130.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20140.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20150.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20160.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20170.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20180.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20190.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!Tax rate record in the pastYe
15、arRev.before taxtaxtax rate2009#DIV/0!2008#DIV/0!2007#DIV/0!Avg.#DIV/0!10 years growth forecastYearNOPTax rateTaxNOPAT20090.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2010#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2011#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2012#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2013#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2014#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!
16、#DIV/0!2015#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2016#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2017#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2018#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2019#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!10 years RE forecastShares Outstanding(mil.)333.00YearNOPATCost of Common EquityEquityRERE/Share2009#DIV/0!3.68%0.002010#DIV/0!3.68%#
17、DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2011#DIV/0!3.68%#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2012#DIV/0!3.68%#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2013#DIV/0!3.68%#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2014#DIV/0!3.68%#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2015#DIV/0!3.68%#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2016#DIV/0!3.68%#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2017#DIV/0!3.68%#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2018#DIV/0!3.68%#DIV/
18、0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2019#DIV/0!3.68%#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!3year invest&depreciation recordYearRev.InvestInvest%Depre.Depre.%Net invest20090.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.0020080.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.0020070.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00Avg.#DIV/0!#DIV/0!10 years growth forecastYearRev.InvestDepre.Net invest200920100.00#DIV/0!#D
19、IV/0!#DIV/0!20110.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20120.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20130.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20140.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20150.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20160.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20170.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20180.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20190.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!Working capital record in t
20、he pastYearRev.Acc.Rece.InventoryAcc.Pay.Working Cap.Wor.Cap.%20090.000.00#DIV/0!20080.000.00#DIV/0!20070.000.00#DIV/0!Avg.#DIV/0!10 years growth forecastYearReve.Rev.growthWor.Cap.20090.0020100.000.00#DIV/0!20110.000.00#DIV/0!20120.000.00#DIV/0!20130.000.00#DIV/0!20140.000.00#DIV/0!20150.000.00#DIV
21、/0!20160.000.00#DIV/0!20170.000.00#DIV/0!20180.000.00#DIV/0!20190.000.00#DIV/0!Disc.Eccess Return Period FCFF#DIV/0!Disc.Residual Value#DIV/0!Short-Term Assets1,814.02Total Corporate Value#DIV/0!RE growth2%Total Corporate Value#DIV/0!Less Debt0.00Less Perferred Stocks0.00Less Short-Term Liabilities1
22、,421.39Total Value to Common Equity#DIV/0!Intrinsic Stock Value assessed by DCF#DIV/0!10 years growth forecastYearReve.NOPATNet investWor.Cap.FCFF20090.0020100.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20110.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20120.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20130.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20
23、140.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20150.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20160.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20170.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20180.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20190.00#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20200.00#DIV/0!00#DIV/0!Intrinsic Stock Value assessed by DRECost of Common Equity3.68
24、%YearEquity/shareRE/shareDiscount FactorDiscounted RE20090.002010#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2011#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2012#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2013#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2014#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2015#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2016#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2017#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2018#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2019#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!Intrinsic Stock Value assessed by DRE#DIV/0!Discount FactorDiscounted FCFF#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!