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1、会计学1曼昆经济学原理第三宏观分册原中英文双曼昆经济学原理第三宏观分册原中英文双语语Five Debates over Macroeconomic PolicyFive Debates over Macroeconomic Policy1.Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy?2.Should monetary policy be made by rule rather than by discretion?3.Should the central bank aim for zero infla
2、tion?4.Should the government balance its budget?5.Should the tax laws be reformed to encourage saving?第1页/共59页宏观经济政策的五个争论问题宏观经济政策的五个争论问题宏观经济政策的五个争论问题宏观经济政策的五个争论问题1.货币与财政决策者应该努力稳定经济吗？2.货币政策应该按规则还是相机抉择?3.中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标吗?4.财政决策者应该减少政府债务吗？5.应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法吗?第2页/共59页1.1.Should monetary and fiscal policym
3、akers Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy?try to stabilize the economy?货币与财政决策者应该努力稳定经济吗？第3页/共59页Pro:Policymakers should try to stabilize the economyn nThe economy is inherently unstable,and left on its own will fluctuate.n nPolicy can manage aggregate demand in orde
4、r to offset this inherent instability and reduce the severity of economic fluctuations.第4页/共59页赞成：决策者应该努力稳定经济赞成：决策者应该努力稳定经济n n经济是本质上不稳定的，如果放任不管，经济就倾向于发生波动。n n政策可以管理总需求，目的是抵消这种内在的不稳定，降低经济波动的严重性。第5页/共59页Pro:Policymakers should try to stabilize the economyn nThere is no reason for society to suffer thr
5、ough the booms and busts of the business cycle.n nMonetary and fiscal policy can stabilize aggregate demand and,thereby,production and employment.第6页/共59页赞成：决策者应该努力稳赞成：决策者应该努力稳定经济定经济n n没有理由使社会受到经济周期高涨与低落的折磨。n n货币与财政政策可以稳定总需求，从而稳定生产和就业。第7页/共59页Con:Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economyn
6、 nMonetary policy affects the economy with long and unpredictable lags between the need to act and the time that it takes for these policies to work.n nMany studies indicate that changes in monetary policy have little effect on aggregate demand until about six months after the change is made.第8页/共59
7、页反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济济n n在需要采取行动到货币政策能发挥作用之间，货币政策对经济的作用要有一个相当长而且不可预见的时滞。n n许多研究表明，在作出货币政策变动的6个月之内，这种变动对总需求的影响很小。第9页/共59页Con:Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economyn nFiscal policy works with a lag because of the long political process that governs changes in spending and taxes.
8、n nIt can take years to propose,pass,and implement a major change in fiscal policy.第10页/共59页反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济济n n财政政策的作用有时滞，是因为政府改变支出与税收是一个漫长的政治过程。n n提出、通过和实施一项重要的财政政策变动需要好几年的时间。第11页/共59页Con:Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economyn nAll too often policymakers can inadvertent
9、ly exacerbate rather than mitigate the magnitude of economic fluctuations.n nIt might be desirable if policy makers could eliminate all economic fluctuations,but this is not a realistic goal.第12页/共59页反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济济n n决策者经常是无意中扩大了而不是缩小了经济波动的程度。n n如果决策者可以消除所有经济波动，这样做是合意的。第13页/共59页2.2.S
10、hould monetary policy be made by rule rather than by discretion?货币政策应该按规则还是相机抉择货币政策应该按规则还是相机抉择?第14页/共59页Pro:Monetary policy should be made by rulePro:Monetary policy should be made by rulen nDiscretionary monetary policy can suffer from incompetence and abuse of power.n nTo the extent that central b
11、ankers ally themselves with politicians,discretionary policy can lead to economic fluctuations that reflect the electoral calendarthe political business cycle.第15页/共59页赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定n n相机抉择货币政策会受无能和滥用权利之苦。n n在某种程度上，中央银行领导人与政治家结盟，相机抉择政策就会引起大选日期的经济波动政治性商业周期。第1
12、6页/共59页Pro:Monetary policy should be made by rulePro:Monetary policy should be made by rulen nThere may be a discrepancy between what policymakers say they will do and what they actually docalled time inconsistency of policy.n nBecause policymakers are so often time inconsistent,people are skeptical
13、 when central bankers announce their intentions to reduce the rate of inflation.第17页/共59页赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定n n也会存在决策者说他们要做什么和实际上做了什么之间的不一致性，这种不一致性被称为政策的时间不一致性。n n由于决策者经常有这种时间不一致性，当中央银行领导人宣布他们打算降低通货膨胀时，人们往往表示怀疑。第18页/共59页Pro:Monetary policy should be made by ruleP
14、ro:Monetary policy should be made by rule赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定n nCommitting the Fed to a moderate and steady growth of the money supply would limit incompetence,abuse of power,and time inconsistency.让美联储实行稳健的货币增长政策会限制无能、滥用权利和时间不一致性。第19页/共59页Con:Monetary policy shou
15、ld not be made by rule n nAn important advantage of discretionary monetary policy is its flexibility.n nInflexible policies will limit the ability of policymakers to respond to changing economic circumstances.第20页/共59页反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定 n n相机抉择货币政策的一个重要优
16、点是灵活性。n n不灵活的政策将限制决策者对变化着的经济环境作出反应的能力。第21页/共59页Con:Monetary policy should not be made by rulen nThe alleged problems with discretion and abuse of power are largely hypothetical.n nAlso,the importance of the political business cycle is far from clear.第22页/共59页反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定反对：货币政策不应
17、该根据规则制定反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定n n所谓的时间不一致性和滥用权利的问题主要是想象出来的。n n而且，政治性商业周期的重要性也很不明显。第23页/共59页3.3.Should the central bank aim for zero inflation?中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标吗？第24页/共59页Pro:The central bank should aim for zero inflationPro:The central bank should aim for zero inflationn nInflation confers no benefit to soc
18、iety,but it imposes several real costs.n nShoeleather costsShoeleather costsn nMenu costsMenu costsn nIncreased variability of relative pricesIncreased variability of relative pricesn nUnintended changes in tax liabilitiesUnintended changes in tax liabilitiesn nConfusion and inconvenienceConfusion a
19、nd inconveniencen nArbitrary redistribution of wealthArbitrary redistribution of wealth第25页/共59页赞成：中央银行应该以零通货膨胀作为目标赞成：中央银行应该以零通货膨胀作为目标赞成：中央银行应该以零通货膨胀作为目标赞成：中央银行应该以零通货膨胀作为目标n n通货膨胀并没有给社会带来什么好处，但引起了一些实际成本。n n皮鞋成本皮鞋成本n n菜单成本菜单成本n n相对价格变动性提高相对价格变动性提高n n税收负担不合意的变动税收负担不合意的变动n n混乱与不方便混乱与不方便n n财富任意再分配财富任意再分
20、配第26页/共59页Pro:The central bank should aim for zero inflationPro:The central bank should aim for zero inflationn n降低通货膨胀是一项暂时有成本而长期有好处的政策。n n一旦反通货膨胀带来的衰退过去，零通货膨胀的好处就会持续到来。第27页/共59页Con:The central bank should not aim for zero inflationn nZero inflation is probably unattainable,and to get there involve
21、s output,unemployment,and social costs that are too high.n nPolicymakers can reduce many of the costs of inflation without actually reducing inflation.第28页/共59页反对：中央银行不应该把零通货膨胀作为目标反对：中央银行不应该把零通货膨胀作为目标反对：中央银行不应该把零通货膨胀作为目标反对：中央银行不应该把零通货膨胀作为目标n n零通货膨胀可能实现不了，而且为了实现零通货膨胀要付出的产量、失业和社会成本也太高。n n决策者可以实际上并不降低通
22、货膨胀而减少许多通货膨胀的成本。第29页/共59页4.4.Should fiscal policymakers reduce the government debt?财政决策者应该减少政府债务吗？财政决策者应该减少政府债务吗？第30页/共59页Pro:The government should balance its budgetn nBudget deficits impose an unjustifiable burden on future generations by raising their taxes and lowering their incomes.n nWhen the
23、debts and accumulated interest come due,future taxpayers will face a difficult choice:n nThey can pay higher taxes,enjoy They can pay higher taxes,enjoy less government spending,or both.less government spending,or both.第31页/共59页赞成：决策者应该减少政赞成：决策者应该减少政府债务府债务n n预算赤字通过增加子孙后代的税收并减少他们的收入而把不合理的负担加在他们身上。n n
24、当这些债务和累积的利息到期时，未来的纳税人就将面临一个困难的选择：n n他们要纳更高的税，享有较少他们要纳更高的税，享有较少的政府支出，或者二者都有。的政府支出，或者二者都有。第32页/共59页Pro:The government should balance its budgetn nBy shifting the cost of current government benefits to future generations,there is a bias against future taxpayers.n nDeficits reduce national saving,leadin
25、g to a smaller stock of capital,which reduces productivity and growth.第33页/共59页赞成：决策者应该减少政赞成：决策者应该减少政府债务府债务n n把现任政府所获利益的成本转嫁给子孙后代，这是对未来纳税人的歧视。n n赤字减少了国民储蓄，引起一定时期内资本存量减少，从而降低了生产率和增长。第34页/共59页Con:The government should not balance its budgetn nThe problem with the deficit is often exaggerated.n nThe tr
26、ansfer of debt to the future may be justified because some government purchases produce benefits well into the future.第35页/共59页反对：决策者不应该减少反对：决策者不应该减少政府债务政府债务n n预算赤字的问题往往被夸大了。n n将债务传给子孙后代也许是正当的，因为一些政府购买会给子孙后代带来很好的利益。第36页/共59页Con:The government should not balance its budgetCon:The government should no
27、t balance its budget反对：决策者不应该减少政府债务反对：决策者不应该减少政府债务反对：决策者不应该减少政府债务反对：决策者不应该减少政府债务n nThe government debt can continue to rise because population growth and technological progress increase the nations ability to pay the interest on the debt.政府债务可以继续增加，因为人口增长和技术进步增强了国家偿付债务利息的能力。第37页/共59页5.5.Should the t
28、ax laws be reformed to encourage saving?应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法吗？应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法吗？第38页/共59页Pro:Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savingn nA nations saving rate is a key determinant of its long-run economic prosperity.n nA nations productive capability is determined largely by how much it saves and invest
29、s for the future.n nWhen the saving rate is higher,more resources are available for investment in new plant and equipment.第39页/共59页赞成：应该为了鼓励储蓄赞成：应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法而修改税法n n一国的储蓄率是其长期经济繁荣的关键决定因素。n n一个国家的生产能力主要取决于它为将来储蓄和投资了多少。n n当储蓄率较高时，更多的资源用于新工厂和设备的投资。第40页/共59页Pro:Tax laws should be reformed to encourage
30、savingn nThe U.S.tax system discourages saving in many ways,such as by heavily taxing the income from capital and by reducing benefits for those who have accumulated wealth.n nThe consequences of high capital income tax policies are reduced saving,reduced capital accumulation,lower labor productivit
31、y,and reduced economic growth.第41页/共59页赞成：应该为了鼓励储蓄赞成：应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法而修改税法n n美国税制以许多方式抑制储蓄，例如，对资本收入征收重税和减少那些积累了财富的人的利益。n n高资本收入税政策的结果是降低了储蓄、资本积累、劳动生产率和经济增长。第42页/共59页Pro:Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savingn nAn alternative to current tax policies advocated by many economists is a consumption
32、 tax.n nWith a consumption tax,a household pays taxes based on what it spends not on what it earns.n nIncome that is saved is exempt from Income that is saved is exempt from taxation until the saving is later taxation until the saving is later withdrawn and spent on withdrawn and spent on consumptio
33、n goods.consumption goods.第43页/共59页赞成：应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改赞成：应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法税法n n许多经济学家支持用消费税代替目前的税制。n n如果是征收消费税，家庭只是根据他们的支出纳税，而不是根据他们的收入纳税。n n储蓄起来的收入是不用纳税的，储蓄起来的收入是不用纳税的，直到以后提取出来用于支付消直到以后提取出来用于支付消费品。费品。第44页/共59页Con:Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage savingn nMany of the changes in tax laws to stimul
34、ate saving would primarily benefit the wealthy.n nHigh-income households save a High-income households save a higher fraction of their income than higher fraction of their income than low-income households.low-income households.n nAny tax change that favors people Any tax change that favors people w
35、ho save will also tend to favor who save will also tend to favor people with high incomes.people with high incomes.第45页/共59页反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法n n许多刺激储蓄的税法变动主要有利于富人许多刺激储蓄的税法变动主要有利于富人。n n高收入家庭中储蓄的比例高于低收入家庭。高收入家庭中储蓄的比例高于低收入家庭。n n任何有利于进行储蓄的人的税收变动也倾向于有利任何
36、有利于进行储蓄的人的税收变动也倾向于有利于高收入的人。于高收入的人。第46页/共59页Con:Tax laws should not be reformed to Con:Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage savingencourage savingn nReducing the tax burden on the Reducing the tax burden on the wealthy would lead to a less egalitarian wealthy would lead to a less egalitarian
37、society.society.n nThis would also force the government This would also force the government to raise the tax burden on the poor.to raise the tax burden on the poor.n nRaising public saving by eliminating Raising public saving by eliminating the governments budget deficit would the governments budge
38、t deficit would provide a more direct and equitable provide a more direct and equitable way to increase national saving.way to increase national saving.第47页/共59页反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法n n降低富人的税收负担会引起一个更不平等的社会。n n这将迫使政府增加穷人的税收负担。n n通过消除政府预算赤字提高公共储蓄，也许提供了一种
39、直更接、更平等地增加国民储蓄的方法。第48页/共59页Summaryn nAdvocates of active monetary and fiscal policy view the economy as inherently unstable and believe policy can be used to offset this inherent instability.n nCritics of active policy emphasize that policy affects the economy with a lag and our ability to forecast
40、future economic conditions is poor,both of which can lead to policy being destabilizing.第49页/共59页小结小结n n积极货币与财政政策的支持者认为经济本质上是不稳定的，并相信政策可以用来抵消这种内在的不稳定性。n n积极货币与财政政策的批评者强调，政策对经济的影响有时滞，而且我们预期未来经济状况的能力是很差的，这两个原因可能导致政策反而使经济不稳定。第50页/共59页Summaryn nAdvocates of rules for monetary policy argue that discretio
41、nary policy can suffer from incompetence,abuse of power,and time inconsistency.n nCritics of rules for monetary policy argue that discretionary policy is more flexible in responding to economic circumstances.第51页/共59页小结小结n n货币政策规则的支持者认为，相机抉择的政策会受无能、滥用权利和时间不一致性之苦。n n货币政策规则的批评者认为，相机抉择的政策在对变化着的经济环境作出反应
42、时较为灵活。第52页/共59页Summaryn nAdvocates of a zero-inflation target emphasize that inflation has many costs and few if any benefits.n nCritics of a zero-inflation target claim that moderate inflation imposes only small costs on society,whereas the recession necessary to reduce inflation is quite costly.第5
43、3页/共59页小结小结n n零通货膨胀目标的支持者强调，通货膨胀有许多成本，而且即使有好处也很少。n n零通货膨胀目标的批评者认为，温和的通货膨胀给社会只带来微不足道的成本，而降低通货膨胀所必需的衰退则是代价高昂的。第54页/共59页Summaryn nAdvocates of reducing the government debt argue that the debt imposes a burden on future generations by raising their taxes and lowering their incomes.n nCritics of reducing
44、 the government debt argue that the debt is only one small piece of fiscal policy.第55页/共59页小结小结n n减少政府债务的支持者认为，债务通过增加子孙后代的税收并减少他们的收入而把债务负担加在他们身上。n n减少政府债务的批评者认为，债务只是财政政策的一小部分。第56页/共59页Summaryn nAdvocates of tax incentives for saving point out that our society discourages saving in many ways such as
45、taxing income from capital and reducing benefits for those who have accumulated wealth.n nCritics of tax incentives argue that many proposed changes to stimulate saving would primarily benefit the wealthy and also might have only a small effect on private saving.第57页/共59页小结小结n n税收激励储蓄的支持者指出，我们的社会用许多方法抑制储蓄，例如，对资本收入征收重税和减少那些积累了财富的人的利益。n n税收激励储蓄的批评者认为，所提出的许多刺激储蓄的变动主要有利于富人，而且也许对私人储蓄只有微不足道的影响。第58页/共59页