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1、关于宏观经济政策的五个争论问题关于宏观经济政策的五个争论问题Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy4.政府应该平衡其预算吗？Should the government balance its budget?5.应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法吗？Should the tax laws be reformed to encourage saving?第1页/共36页1.货币与财政政策决策者应该努货币与财政政策决策者应该努力稳定经济吗？力稳定经济吗？Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try to Stabilize th
2、e Economy?第2页/共36页赞成：决策者应该努力稳定经济赞成：决策者应该努力稳定经济Pro:Policymakers should try to stabilize the economyu经济天生是不稳定的，如果放任不管，经济就倾向于发生波动。The economy is inherently unstable,and left on its own will fluctuate.u政策能调节总需求以便抵消天生的不稳定性，并减轻经济波动的严重性。Policy can manage aggregate demand in order to offset this inherent in
3、stability and reduce the severity of economic fluctuations.第3页/共36页赞成：决策者应该努力稳定经济赞成：决策者应该努力稳定经济Pro:Policymakers should try to stabilize the economyu没有理由让社会受到经济周期高涨与低落的折磨。There is no reason for society to suffer through the booms and busts of the business cycle.u货币与财政政策可以稳定总需求，从而稳定生产和就业。Monetary and
4、fiscal policy can stabilize aggregate demand and,thereby,production and employment.第4页/共36页反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济Con:Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economyu货币与财政 政策并不能立即影响经济，而是其作用要有一个相当长的无法预知的时滞。Monetary policy affects the economy with long and unpredictable lags between the ne
5、ed to act and the time that it takes for these policies to work.u许多研究表明，在作出货币政策变动的6个月之内，这种变动对总需求的影响很小。Many studies indicate that changes in monetary policy have little effect on aggregate demand until about six months after the change is made.第5页/共36页反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济Con:Policymakers sh
6、ould not try to stabilize the economyu财政政策的作用存在时滞源于政府改变支出与税收的漫长政治程序。Fiscal policy works with a lag because of the long political process that governs changes in spending and taxes.u提出、通过和实施一项重要的财政政策需要好几年的时间。It can take years to propose,pass,and implement a major change in fiscal policy.第6页/共36页反对：决策
7、者不应该努力稳定经济反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济Con:Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economyu通常，决策者可能无形中扩大了而不是缩小了经济波动的程度。All too often policymakers can inadvertently exacerbate rather than mitigate the magnitude of economic fluctuations.u如果决策者能够消除所有经济波动，这样做是合意的，但这是一个不现实的目标。It might be desirable if policy maker
8、s could eliminate all economic fluctuations,but this is not a realistic goal.第7页/共36页2.货币政策应该按规则还是相机抉货币政策应该按规则还是相机抉择择Should Monetary Policy Be Made by Rule Rather Than by Discretion?第8页/共36页赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定Pro:Monetary policy should be made by ruleu相机抉择的货币政策导致权力的无能与滥用。Discretionary monet
9、ary policy can suffer from incompetence and abuse of power.u中央银行领导人与政治家在多大程度上结盟，相机抉择政策就会引起反映大选日期的经济波动，这种波动称为政治性经济周期。To the extent that central bankers ally themselves with politicians,discretionary policy can lead to economic fluctuations that reflect the electoral calendar the political business cy
10、cle.第9页/共36页赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定Pro:Monetary policy should be made by ruleu 决策者说他们要做什么和实际作了什么之间存在不一致性，这就是政策的时间不一致性。There may be a discrepancy between what policymakers say they will do and what they actually do called time inconsistency of policy.u因为决策者经常出现这种时间不一致性，当中央银行领导人宣布他们打算降低通货膨胀率时，人们表
11、示怀疑。Because policymakers are so often time inconsistent,people are skeptical when central bankers announce their intentions to reduce the rate of inflation.第10页/共36页赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定Pro:Monetary policy should be made by ruleu美联储保持货币供应的适度与稳定的增长，将能限制无能，权力的滥用和时间的不一致性。Committing the Fed to a
12、moderate and steady growth of the money supply would limit incompetence,abuse of power,and time inconsistency.第11页/共36页反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定Con:Monetary policy should not be made by rule u相机抉择一个最重要的优点是灵活性。An important advantage of discretionary monetary policy is its flexibility.u固定的政策将会限
13、定决策者根据经济的变动周期作出反应的能力。Inflexible policies will limit the ability of policymakers to respond to changing economic circumstances.第12页/共36页反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定Con:Monetary policy should not be made by ruleu所谓的相机抉择问题主要是假想的。The alleged problems with discretion and abuse of power are largely hy
14、pothetical.u并且，政治性经济周期的实际中要性很不明显。Also,the importance of the political business cycle is far from clear.第13页/共36页3.中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标吗？目标吗？Should The Central Bank Aim for Zero Inflation?第14页/共36页赞成：中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目赞成：中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标标Pro:The central bank should aim for zero inflationu通货膨胀并
15、没有给社会带来什么好处，但引起了一些实际成本。Inflation confers no benefit to society,but it imposes several real costs.u皮鞋成本 Shoeleather costsu菜单成本 Menu costsu相对价格变动性提高 Increased variability of relative pricesu税收负担不合意的变动 Unintended changes in tax liabilitiesu混乱与不方便 Confusion and inconvenienceu财富任意再分配 Arbitrary redistribu
16、tion of wealth第15页/共36页赞成：中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目赞成：中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标标Pro:The central bank should aim for zero inflationu降低通货膨胀是一项暂时有成本而长期有好处的政策。Reducing inflation is a policy with temporary costs and permanent benefits.u一旦反通货膨胀的衰退过去，零通货膨胀的好处就会持续到未来。Once the disinflationary recession is over,the benefits of
17、zero inflation would persist.第16页/共36页反对：中央银不应该把零通货膨胀作为目反对：中央银不应该把零通货膨胀作为目标标Con:The central bank should not aim for zero inflationu零通货膨胀是不太可能做到的，它是以产量、失业和较高的社会成本为代价的。Zero inflation is probably unattainable,and to get there involves output,unemployment,and social costs that are too high.u决策者可以实际上并不降低
18、通货膨胀而较少许多通货膨胀的成本。Policymakers can reduce many of the costs of inflation without actually reducing inflation.第17页/共36页4.财政决策者应该减少政府债务吗财政决策者应该减少政府债务吗？Should Fiscal Policymakers reduce the Government Debt?第18页/共36页赞成：政府应该平衡其预算赞成：政府应该平衡其预算Pro:The government should balance its budgetu预算赤字对后代产生了不合理的影响，提高了
19、他们的税收负担，减少了他们的收入。Budget deficits impose an unjustifiable burden on future generations by raising their taxes and lowering their incomes.u当债务和累积的利息到期后，未来的纳税人将面临一个困难的选择：When the debts and accumulated interest come due,future taxpayers will face a difficult choice:u他们要纳更高的税，享有较少的政府支出，或两者都有。They can pay
20、 higher taxes,enjoy less government spending,or both.第19页/共36页赞成：政府应该平衡其预算赞成：政府应该平衡其预算Pro:The government should balance its budgetu把当前政府享有好处的成本转移到下一代，这明显对未来的纳税人不公正。By shifting the cost of current government benefits to future generations,there is a bias against future taxpayers.u赤字减少了国民储蓄，导致资本存量的减少，
21、这又降低了生产率和增长。Deficits reduce national saving,leading to a smaller stock of capital,which reduces productivity and growth.第20页/共36页反对：政府不应该平衡其预算反对：政府不应该平衡其预算Con:The government should not balance its budgetu政府赤字问题往往被夸大了。The problem with the deficit is often exaggerated.u债务转移到未来是正确的，因为政府购买创造的一些好处将会延伸到未来
22、。The transfer of debt to the future may be justified because some government purchases produce benefits well into the future.第21页/共36页反对：政府不应该平衡其预算反对：政府不应该平衡其预算Con:The government should not balance its budgetu政府债务能继续增加，因为人口的增加和技术的进步提高了政府偿还债务利息的能力。The government debt can continue to rise because popu
23、lation growth and technological progress increase the nations ability to pay the interest on the debt.第22页/共36页5.应该修改税法来鼓励储蓄吗？应该修改税法来鼓励储蓄吗？Should The Tax Laws Be Reformed to Encourage Saving?第23页/共36页赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税法赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税法Pro:Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savingu一国的储蓄率是其长期经济繁荣的关键决
24、定因素。A nations saving rate is a key determinant of its long-run economic prosperity.u一国的生产能力又主要由它为未来储蓄和投资了多少而决定。A nations productive capability is determined largely by how much it saves and invests for the future.u当储蓄率较高时，更多的资源用于新工厂和设备的投资。When the saving rate is higher,more resources are available f
25、or investment in new plant and equipment.第24页/共36页赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税法赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税法Pro:Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savingu美国税制用各种方式抑制储蓄，例如对来自资本的收入征收重税，降低了有大量累积财富那些人的利益等。The U.S.tax system discourages saving in many ways,such as by heavily taxing the income from capital and by reducing bene
26、fits for those who have accumulated wealth.第25页/共36页赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税法赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税法Pro:Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savingu资本收入的重税政策带来的后果是储蓄减少、资本积累减少、劳动生产率降低以及经济增长减少。uThe consequences of high capital income tax policies are reduced saving,reduced capital accumulation,lower labor productiv
27、ity,and reduced economic growth.第26页/共36页赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税法赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税法Pro:Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savingu对于目前的税收政策的一种可供选择的方法，许多经济学家都支持用消费税。An alternative to current tax policies advocated by many economists is a consumption tax.u根据消费税，家庭根据它的支出而不是收入进行征税。With a consumption tax,a hous
28、ehold pays taxes based on what it spends not on what it earns.u用于储蓄的授予在以后提取并用于消费品支持之前免税。Income that is saved is exempt from taxation until the saving is later withdrawn and spent on consumption goods.第27页/共36页反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法Con:Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage savingu为
29、促进储蓄而产生的税法变动主要有利于富人。Many of the changes in tax laws to stimulate saving would primarily benefit the wealthy.u高收入家庭储蓄占收入的比例高于低收入家庭。High-income households save a higher fraction of their income than low-income households.u任何有利于进行储蓄的人的税收变动也倾向于有利于高收入的人。Any tax change that favors people who save will als
30、o tend to favor people with high incomes.第28页/共36页反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法Con:Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage savingu减轻富人的税收负担将引起一个更不平等的社会。Reducing the tax burden on the wealthy would lead to a less egalitarian society.u这些做法也迫使政府增加穷人的税收负担。This would also force the government t
31、o raise the tax burden on the poor.第29页/共36页反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法Con:Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage savingu通过减少政府预算赤字而提高公共储蓄提供了一种增加国民储蓄的直接而且公平的方法。Raising public saving by eliminating the governments budget deficit would provide a more direct and equitable way to increase n
32、ational saving.第30页/共36页总结总结Summaryu积极货币与财政政策的支持者认为，经济本质上是不稳定的，并相信货币与财政政策能被用来抵消这种内在的不稳定性。Advocates of active monetary and fiscal policy view the economy as inherently unstable and believe policy can be used to offset this inherent instability.u积极政策的批评者强调，政策对经济的影响存在时滞，而且我们预期未来经济状况的能力是很差的，这导致了经济的不稳定。C
33、ritics of active policy emphasize that policy affects the economy with a lag and our ability to forecast future economic conditions is poor,both of which can lead to policy being destabilizing.第31页/共36页总结总结Summaryu货币政策规则的支持者认为，相机抉择的政策会饱受无能、滥用权力与时间不一致性之苦。Advocates of rules for monetary policy argue t
34、hat discretionary policy can suffer from incompetence,abuse of power,and time inconsistency.u货币政策规则的批评者认为，相机抉择的政策在对变化着的经济环境作出反应时较为灵活。Critics of rules for monetary policy argue that discretionary policy is more flexible in responding to economic circumstances.第32页/共36页总结总结Summaryu零通货膨胀目标的支持者强调，通货膨胀有许
35、多成本，而且即使有好处也很少。Advocates of a zero-inflation target emphasize that inflation has many costs and few if any benefits.u零通货膨胀目标额达批评者声称，温和的通货膨胀给社会只带来微不足道的成本，而降低通货膨胀所必需的衰退则代价高昂。Critics of a zero-inflation target claim that moderate inflation imposes only small costs on society,whereas the recession neces
36、sary to reduce inflation is quite costly.第33页/共36页总结总结Summaryu平衡政府预算的支持者认为，预算赤字通过增加子孙后代的税收并减少他们的收入而不公正地把负担加在他们身上。Advocates of reducing the government debt argue that the debt imposes a burden on future generations by raising their taxes and lowering their incomes.u平衡政府预算的批评者认为，赤字只是财政政策的一小部分。Critics
37、of reducing the government debt argue that the debt is only one small piece of fiscal policy.第34页/共36页总结总结Summaryu税收激励储蓄的支持者指出，我们的社会用许多方法抑制储蓄，例如对资本收入征收重税和减少那些积累了财富的人的利益。Advocates of tax incentives for saving point out that our society discourages saving in many ways such as taxing income from capita
38、l and reducing benefits for those who have accumulated wealth.u税收激励储蓄的反对者认为，所提出的许多刺激储蓄的变动主要有利于富人，对私人储蓄只有微不足道的影响。Critics of tax incentives argue that many proposed changes to stimulate saving would primarily benefit the wealthy and also might have only a small effect on private saving.第35页/共36页感谢您的欣赏！第36页/共36页