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1、XXX 项目项目投资评估报告 子公司或集团名称，2010年 x 月 x 号1目录1.项目摘要和背景项目摘要和背景2.战略考量和主要假设战略考量和主要假设3.项目参数和选择项目参数和选择4.资本和运营费用开支资本和运营费用开支5.环保、健康和安全（只适用于专项）环保、健康和安全（只适用于专项）6.项目实施计划项目实施计划7.风险分析和管理风险分析和管理8.经济和投资分析经济和投资分析21.项目摘要和背景项目摘要项目摘要 包括具体建议和申请 背景背景描述投资机会和现状有无任何承诺已经作出32.战略考量和主要假设战略考量战略考量 要结合3年战略规划来谈 主要假设主要假设包括经济、市场、运营、基建、环
2、境和财务方面等43.项目参数和选择项目参数和选择项目参数和选择项目/事业部所在位置市场分析，如竞争者和客户分析，定价机制等产品组合，运营范围（如上下游加工的程度，自制/内协/外协）技术和工艺方法与行业关系投资者结构（合作/合资，自建/租赁）基建52010(Total=351KT)NorthAmerica130 KTAsia54 KTOther28 KTEurope139 KTOther34 KTEurope158 KTAsia109 KTNorthAmerica142 KTRest AsiaAero15KTChinaGE8KTChinaAero12KTRest AsiaGE19KTChina
3、GE41KTChina Aero25KTRest Asia GE26KTRest Asia Aero17KT例子：整体市场50%of 2010-2016 World HT plate market growth will occur in ChinaWorld HT Plate Market Evolution2016(Total=442KT)2010(Total=54KT)2016(Total=109KT)Asia HT Plate Market EvolutionReduced import of machinery from Europe and US to China,substitu
4、ted by local manufacturingFocus of World growth of semi-conductor equipment in China,and displacement of 30%of current US manufacturing of this equipment to ChinaIncreased production of blow-molds in China,driven by increased consumption of plastic-bottle beveragesIncreased outsourcing by Airbus to
5、China in a bid to reduce manufacturing costs and acquire favorable position relative to Chinese airlinesRamp-up of Chinese manufactured aircraftWorld:2%/yEU:1%/yNA:1%/y Asia:7%/y China GE:18%/yAero:8%/yRest AsiaGE:4%/yAero:1%/y6UnprofitableMarket EVA($/T)AdvantagedADCB-800-4000400800-6%-3%0%3%6%Mark
6、et Volume Growth2010-2016GE HT PlateAeroHT PlateTMI NHT PlatesTMI ShatesVolume:50 ktWide CoilsAero SheetsTread ShatesHT PlatesOtherXxx is the World co-leader of the 2$B heat treated1(HT)plate market,with a market share of 31%HT plate market can be sub-divided in two key application-segments:Aerospac
7、eGeneral Engineering.例子：产品组合Aerospace and general engineering HT plate are the two most attractive segments in the business portfolio7Potential sources of extra capacity in ChinaFactors affecting ability to move to China soonDomestic Chinese producersChalco is increasing HT plate capacity(from 10KT
8、in 2010 to 65KT in 2016)Further capacity increase unlikely to occur before 2016:Need to focus on producing and selling 65KT:at present,lack skills to produce quality GE plate and are not internationally qualified for aero plateOther growth paths are being pursuedHas just invested$500m in XXX market,
9、attention is focused on successExisting owned Chinese mills are designed to produce foil and can stock are not cost effective to enter GE plate market but could do it on opportunistic approachCapex on this scale difficult given recent emergence from bankruptcyOwns McCook equipment.Signed JV with Chi
10、nese partnerPotential entrant no evidence of intent to date,but could go for a technology agreement or minority shareAbility to move soon?Western producers例子：目前和潜在的竞争进入者 ABC is likely to be the first mover if it moves nowRisk of other Chinese players(Alnan/Nanning)?89Delivered cost=production cost+S
11、G&A+R&D+freight+duties at$/rate of 1.44,Rmb/$of 6.75 and RUR/$at 36.Import duties:6%in China,7.5%in Europe and 3.3%in USA.EuropeChinaUSAGE Plate Delivered Cost*2016($/T)3000290019001000-15025502800190014001250-130030002400195012001100-1300European millsUS millsRussian millsChinese millsABC China mil
12、lProduct SourceDestination 例子：竞争优势 ABC China will have a competitive advantage both in domestic and export markets,producing at Western quality levels with the lowest cost position Worldwide910Airbus subcontracts production of A320 wing boxes(+1.5KT)and structural parts for A350(+4.1KT)Limited growt
13、h of Boeing aluminium sub-contracting to China driven by focus on composites for 787 parts Embraer/Bombardier will subcontract part of their new regional jet production in China(vs.Japan historically)Chinese growth demand is driven by ramp-up of ARJ21 to 27 deliveries annually(85T/aircraft)Limited g
14、rowth in Japan and Korea is due to Boeing focus on composites and Airbus subcontracting focus on China(vs.Japan/Korea)Post-2017 Chinese demand will continue to grow with continued sub-contracting by Western OEMs to China and by ramp-up of domestic programs(Chinese single-aisle as well as ARJ-21)assu
15、mption of CAGR of 10%Post-2017 Rest of Asia CAGR=0%2010-16 Aero Plate Demand Evolution by OEMKT2006-16 Growth2006Growth Drivers9%1%CAGRAirbusBoeingEmb/BomDomesticAirbusBoeingEmb/BomDomesticChinaRest of Asia(Japan/Korea)例子：产品细分市场 Growth is focused in China and is driven by Airbus and domestic OEMsChi
16、naRest of AsiaEU,NA,ROW2010-16 Aero Plate Demand Evolution by RegionKT2,0102017*Aero Plate Sales by Supplier AsiaKTChinaJapan&KoreaAsian market is split between three suppliers:ABC:37%Chalco:30%Alcoa:22%World market share:ABC:38%Alcoa:36%Chalco:5%Proprietary alloys leadership,plant in China and hist
17、orical customer relationships will provide ABC with a unique position with Western aircraft manufacturers in China50%share of Airbus China vs.40-45%in ROWChinese mills will dominate domestic OEMs,though ABC position in proprietary alloys will enable capture of some share of Chinese civil programsAlc
18、oa Russia will benefit from Alcoas strong position at Boeing and Bombardier in Japan例子：市场份额分布Combination of proprietary alloys,plant in China and historical customer relationships will provide ABC with a 50%share of Western OEMs in China(vs.35-45%in ROW)11World GEP Capacity Utilization vs.Asian*GEP
19、Spreads例子：销售价格 ABC ChinaChalcoSual/Alcoa BelayaHuletAvailable GEP Capacity/Delivered Costs*to Asia*-2012Delivered Cost($/t)Cumulative Available 6XXX GEP Capacity(kt)Asian*GEP 6XXX DemandAssumed 6XXX Price PointAlcoa DavenportABC RavenswoodAsian 6XXX spread is projected to drop by 30%in 2011/12 as Ch
20、inese and Russian mills set price at a level preventing higher cost competitors from entering the market124.资本和运营费用开支（单位：0.1百万元人民币）资本开支（分项明细，按年度或月度）资本开支（分项明细，按年度或月度）运营费用开支（分项明细，按年度或月度）运营费用开支（分项明细，按年度或月度）135.环保、健康和安全（只适用于专项）环境和社会评估环境和社会评估（对环境、本地社区和其他外部单位的影响进行评估）健康和安全健康和安全（对职业健康和安全的重大影响进行评估）146.项目实施计划
21、项目时间表、主要里程碑项目时间表、主要里程碑 采购策略采购策略（利用集团供应链等资源）项目团队和组织项目团队和组织 157.风险分析和管理主要风险主要风险管理对策和计划管理对策和计划-168.经济和投资分析主要驱动要素的分析主要驱动要素的分析 估值：回收期(要求20%）经济和财务指标：收入、净利润和经营现金流复合增长，净资产回报率，与三年战略规划比较与三年战略规划比较敏感性不同项目情形的分析（scenario,最坏、最好和最有可能)与上一投资分析版本的差异 附件：附件：有关分析的详细有关分析的详细excel文件文件17例子：主要指标Total ProjectProject cost$410MI
22、RR14.2%NPV(including terminal value)$500 M(TV=$319 M)Undiscounted Payback11 years2016 Volumes114KT2016 Sales$437M2016 Spread(%of 2016 Sales)$174M(40%of Sales)2016 EBITDA(%of 2016 Sales)$102M(23%of Sales)2016 Net Income(%of 2016 Sales)$65M(15%of Sales)2016 Net Free Cash Flow$74 M2016 Capital Employed
23、$257 M2016 Working Capital$58 M2016 CFOA$74 M2016 RONA20%2016 Head-count700 FTE2007-2019 Net Free Cash Flow($M)China project requires$410M investment for a NPV of$500M and an IRR of 14.2%18例子：敏感性分析 Gap毛利毛利 2019NPVIRRPayback(in years)LME+100$/t0-4-0,1%0,0EUR/$10%21-0,2%0,1$/RMB10%0-17-0,4%0,2Electric
24、ity10%-1-6-0,1%0,0Gas10%-1-7-0,1%0,0Chinese purchases10%-3-21-0,2%0,1Salary10%-1-10-0,1%0,1Capex10%-32-0,7%0,4WACC18%-2110,0%0,0Perpetual growth rate33%-42-0,2%0,0Volumes10%-16-109-1,1%0,7Prices10%-45-341-3,8%3,1From 2%to 1.5%41$M increaseFrom 10%to 12%Sales price decreaseSales volume decreaseSensitivity Assumption40%discount instead of 50%on 80%of total purchasesAll salaries except expatriates1960-2060$/t1,44-1,5856,75-6,07595-105$/MWh50-55$/MWhSensitivity is primarily driven by prices and volumes19