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5、?)?*+,+?,?,+#-./,+?,+0120?!?#?$%&?(?)?!?*?+,-?.?/01234?.5?67?8?.9?:;?A?.B?C&D?.?EFG8HIJKL?21?!?#$%?&?()*?+,-.?/01?2?3?45?$67?()68?9:?;?A?B*?P118?6-1?!?#$GDP%&?(?!#)*+,-./0122?2001-2004?%?23?4+56?789:;?A?B=7CDDEFCDDG:H+56?I&JKLM+CDDG:NOLMPQR?ST?UVW+XYZ?I?&7CDDG:_abQcEdefgh+ij?klmJno?pqr?2004-2007?23?
6、CDE?()FGHIJK?LMNOPQDLRST?UVRWXL*?Y?LMZ?LRK_ab?cde?C?fVRWXL?!?gh?2?67XL68*?ijabkl?c?VRWXL67$mVRWno?p?qrst/uvwCx?yz?$?67?XL68*?24?2001-2004?%?23?4+7CDDEFCDDG:H+st!56?XYZ#u4&v+|?XL?DLR-?LM?9?VRWXL?LR?8?-?$?“LR?”*?m?2=8?LR?RWZ?;?C?%?e?“RWXL”*?e?26?23?4+56=?j?#Y?+?XYZ?7?#Y?+?=?R?J?#Y?+?YZ?*?7a?Q?0?QYZA?.
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8、?cd-?vvr?RWXL?L?!?31?2004?!#$%&()(?*?+?,-./0?1?&,)2#?345678?56.8%/?9:;?2004?2#/?!#$%&?(?32?CDDd:?OCDD:ED?+?r?J?e?+?b?$%+?+CDD:eV?;?NOJKLM?K3+?-+PCDD?CDD:?#Y?4?+?YZ)*?J?e?j?-:?CDD?e:;?#Y?B=+CDD?:j?+?YZ#?#)*2?JK.?33!?#?fkl?45$?2?67?LR?VRWno?/?LR?*?C?cd?$?LR?*1.?2.?34?2?+CDDG:XYZZ#?=?+IZ#?G?i?=?#+IE?r?
9、Z#I?C?+mJd?d?i?%?J?#Y?WL?3?j?“?”1+?“?u!$#”?$?+CDDG:?XYZ?Z#?%3HZ#?!?#35?2?+CDDG:?56?&?#Y?4+IiYZ#?i?=&(#)*?+)*+,YIiYZ#?E?-=|./?Y+I?r?#I56YZ#?C+70?1?$?+CDDG:?YZA%3HZ#?+?YZ23=?4?!?$56?7?%8?=+9:?r?;i?AQZ#B?$%?#36$?%&?Y?2_L?cdG?Cj?()?XL?()XLN?67?F?k6-2P+?7?f*?23?4+?=?eCD?b?E?F+89:;?1978-2007:?30:jJ24:1?E7
10、35%3?G2002:OH+I:740%3?+NOJPQ50%?+89:;?71978-2007:?30:jJ22:1?Eb?#E?KLM?=+?N?OQ?#P?QR?8?#YSQT37$?%&?flk?C?UOCDD:?Z#)*%3?+?Z#I.PCD?&v?V+?W#B?$?XY$Z?_?:N+?EFCDDD:!CDD?FCDD:+?=?Z#?I&a?:N?=?:N+?CDDEFCDDG:+?W#B?b?38?L?cd?j?-:?CDD?u4efgh9d-iKP?ij+#Ej#?6?Iu4e?kl?&v?EmEDDF?nopE?39?6-2?ABCD?EF(D?-.GHI6?EF/?!#$
11、%&(?40?41?+?K?Kc?K?9/?2?f?c?a?f?c?K?2?f42?K$?2?+?2?T?7?aK*?.?$?/?F?rP?Fno?o?”?P?t?=?*?q+“?r?”s?tu?j%v?w?%?x?K$+?/?K?K?U?ST?f?C?ak?-8?#$?a*43?/!?aK.?#$x?m%?&()*+,?6-./?0123?456?,?aK78Q?9“?:?;?G?AAB?*?y?z96?+?),1,(udtdpprrrwyfPMepm=?44),1,(udtdpprrrwyfPMepm=?!#M$?%&?()*+,P$-./0,M/P$1234%&5%&?67)*+,y$6
12、789:;?A,w$B3CDE?89?#FEG3C?89HI89?J,rm$)*?KL8MN,rp$OP?KL8MN,re$?Q?KL8MN,1/pdp/dt$.RSKL=TNU-V?C?KL8MN,u$!WXY2Z%&)*?45?,?aK7eC7“no?D?8Q?|w?g1?7?+?%?),1,(udtdpprrryfPMepm=),1,(udtdpprrrwyfPMepm=?yw7g?+?e?:+M?4v?+y?+w?1?46?K$?+?/?+Ex?FG?HFG?=?*?YZ?*?j?Y+sYZ?*!st5?S?A?YZ#?4v?=?e?jt+i?9?=?4v?K3+?4v?=?+?$?4
13、7?T+,?I?R?JK01o?L#Y?MNOPB?Q?R?K?/#$xS=?=?T?#MzU?:=V?2?*?5+?4vs?23?rQ?“?”?50?C_?Q?a?9?b?2cd?#M+e*?2?fB?Q?_?*?Q?_gh?2?i?j?*?iH?7?+4v?l?7?“L+?$+4v?ox?+4v$?j?4v?5H?fi?+fl(?+m$OE?J?51?k?c?l?mno)pq?#Y?rjs?t?Y?_nuQgh?noY?_hvf?+?*?Q7?+4v$?5H?fi?4vs?mafl+?i?l!i?s?%a?Q7?+3AW?4v?”?4vs?t+?“m.?”e=+?”?4vs?jxN?t+?
14、”?N?t?52?!?g+G?4+*?4v?z9?UVW+y?3“?!?+?W|Q%4v?)i?!YZ23?+?%4v?l?l+7*?4v?z9:+23cd4v9?+?gq?kl?E4v?l?+?%OEl?5?53c?a?8w/?f?9VQPM=aYQ=aVYPM=?Q?Q?!?P?#$V?%&?()?*&+,-.?a?/?0a=?!?1Y?Y?GDP-54?23?4?56?789):?eaaVVPPYYMM+=c?a?8w/?f?;2?)?ABCD9E-?FM/M?G?)HI/FY/Y?JKHI/FP/P?L#3M/FV/V?*&+,?/Fa/a?/?/-e?NO?PQRNSTUV82?)W
15、X-55?6-3?Y1994-2003Z)?9ED?!#$?%&#$?(?%56?6-3?4v?xE?3?-?+s?j?Y$?5!?xE?&1?xE?2&?-i?fgh&xE?E?fgh?j9FEDD?4v?fgh?fgh?E#?+?i$?/?0+&?eKP?hEC?Jfl?ZO?op?%?4v?op&v|?4v?op&vJ-9d+?4v?op&v2,?EDD1+c-i?ET57?J?6?L?6?+VVaaYYMMPP?+?+?4v?xE?l%4v?xE?x?%4v?|?E?ab?aa%4v?|3“4v?%4v?1+?4?!?+s?hh?r?+?=Z?23g4v?x%?l?T58?!?#$?%
16、&?O?EFCDD?:H?4v?$?fgh?xE#?FG1+o?l?+g?5H?o?l?5?+?%?o?w?g?)?Fd?)?+?!fgh?xE?D?:?;?ABCD?E7FGHIJKLEMNHOPM7N?QR?o?po?l?+)?F?59?!?#$?%&?2?+9?CN:+?xE$fghxE5H=?l?+s?xE=fghxE?kl+?fghxE.=?xE?kl?9?EN:+?xE$fghxE5H=?l?+sfghxE=?xE?kl+?xE.=fghxE?kl?:STUVWX?YZC_abcdefgQh?HiUVWX?YZjkQR?dK4?)?=?3?4v?7?xj?o”+?J4v?“?”+j
17、?x?lm60?!?#$%&()*+,-./01,-.234567?GDPM2M1M0?GDPM2M1M0?no61?6-5 1979-2003?M1?M2?GDP?1.868258-5.204010*?c?t?M22.483703-4.311198*?c?t?M11.928470-3.254579*?c?t?YD.WT?(c,t,k)?c,t?k?!*?#$%&(10%5%1%)*+,-.!?P128?M1?M2?ADF?T?62/0GDP?123?45ADF Test Statistic-3.254579 1%Critical Value*-4.4415 5%Critical Value-
18、3.6330 10%Critical Value-3.2535*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test EquationDependent Variable:D(GDP)Method:Least SquaresDate:10/25/09 Time:11:39Sample(adjusted):1982 2003Included observations:22 after adjusting endpointsVariableCoefficie
19、ntStd.Errort-StatisticProb.GDP(-1)-0.7686240.236167-3.2545790.0047D(GDP(-1)0.4843520.1943122.4926490.0233D(GDP(-2)-0.0095310.212672-0.0448160.9648C9.0253712.6668663.3842610.0035TREND(1979)-0.1105350.078377-1.4103000.1765R-squared0.521230 Mean dependent var0.186364Adjusted R-squared0.408578 S.D.depen
20、dent var2.980300S.E.of regression2.291968 Akaike info criterion4.693415Sum squared resid89.30301 Schwarz criterion4.941379Log likelihood-46.62757 F-statistic4.626914Durbin-Watson stat1.928470 Prob(F-statistic)0.01037363/0M1?123?45ADF Test Statistic-4.311198 1%Critical Value*-4.4415 5%Critical Value-
21、3.6330 10%Critical Value-3.2535*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test EquationDependent Variable:D(M1)Method:Least SquaresDate:10/25/09 Time:12:40Sample(adjusted):1982 2003Included observations:22 after adjusting endpointsVariableCoefficien
22、tStd.Errort-StatisticProb.M1(-1)-1.2605660.292393-4.3111980.0005D(M1(-1)0.4185020.2290251.8273230.0853D(M1(-2)0.4135090.1636152.5273320.0217C38.141729.4144074.0514200.0008TREND(1979)-0.7302510.303390-2.4069680.0277R-squared0.565172 Mean dependent var0.072727Adjusted R-squared0.462859 S.D.dependent v
23、ar10.68422S.E.of regression7.830454 Akaike info criterion7.150634Sum squared resid1042.372 Schwarz criterion7.398599Log likelihood-73.65698 F-statistic5.523972Durbin-Watson stat2.483703 Prob(F-statistic)0.00489164/0M2?123?45ADF Test Statistic-5.204010 1%Critical Value*-4.4415 5%Critical Value-3.6330
24、 10%Critical Value-3.2535*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test EquationDependent Variable:D(M2)Method:Least SquaresDate:10/25/09 Time:11:36Sample(adjusted):1982 2003Included observations:22 after adjusting endpointsVariableCoefficientStd.E
25、rrort-StatisticProb.M2(-1)-0.9000030.172944-5.2040100.0001D(M2(-1)0.3294570.1623492.0293060.0584D(M2(-2)0.5441820.1383143.9343840.0011C29.789165.7226335.2054990.0001TREND(1979)-0.5672920.166695-3.4031700.0034R-squared0.635610 Mean dependent var0.054545Adjusted R-squared0.549871 S.D.dependent var6.36
26、8204S.E.of regression4.272531 Akaike info criterion5.939006Sum squared resid310.3269 Schwarz criterion6.186971Log likelihood-60.32907 F-statistic7.413336Durbin-Watson stat1.868258 Prob(F-statistic)0.001201no65?!?#$?0.044484.56890GDP?M2?0.771030.086921M2?GDP?0.725950.32605GDP?M1?0.021964.75619?M1?GDP
27、?no66?!?#$?Pairwise Granger Causality TestsDate:10/25/09 Time:12:54Sample:1979 2003Lags:2 Null Hypothesis:ObsF-StatisticProbability M1 does not Granger Cause GDP23 4.75619 0.02196 GDP does not Granger Cause M1 0.32605 0.7259567?!?#$?Pairwise Granger Causality TestsDate:10/25/09 Time:12:59Sample:1979
28、 2003Lags:1 Null Hypothesis:ObsF-StatisticProbability GDP does not Granger Cause M224 4.56890 0.04448 M2 does not Granger Cause GDP 0.08692 0.77103no68?69?!#$%&?(?)*%?+,-./012?34?70?#$15?6789:;%?ABCDEFRaymond William GoldsmithG?ABCDEHIJK?LMN?OP?QR?ST?RUVW9-.34?X?!#?$?%?&()*+,-?$.?%?&/0?1?(234-5678(2
29、?9:;571?1969Y%ABCDE)Z?M_?ab?c?*defaghijk?34?Jlma?naopqrst8%iuvwxy%qz?6Y?|(1962-1968)?pfys%ABCDE?n%?35?200Y?*d?,-.?#$?72?ABCDE?!#$?1.?ABCDEFIRFGHIJ?KLM?9NOP(234?CD5QR6?#S?J(?TUPVWTU?BX?YZ?S?J(?(2_?ab?c?5?p9qrs?turvw?xy1Hz|?FIR?H?GDP?Q2.?de?fgUhG?deiO?jklmnop?qrst3.?de?guUhG?9NO?vl?deiO?vwguxyzjguxy?q
30、rst4.S?J(?TUvl?|UAn?R673?ABCDE?!#$?5.?DGR?|U?9NO?C?#S?J(?|U?56.?AB?G?vl?de?Z?Z?9?delo?guqo?q?5?AB?vl?de?J?aWM?57.?TU?BXCDG6w“?q?R6?1?CDR6?Y?q?58.figu?fg?E)*FPflg?E?Y?F?jN?9YN:;?C5lm74?!?!#$!?%&()?*+?,-.#$!?!?!?/012)345/67?586?7?809:;?AB5/6?586?5C6?5D6?5E6?5F6?GHB 5.IJK6C0L4?AB 5.IJK6GHB 5.IJK6MMno75
31、?!?#$%&?(?)*+$!?,-./&012,34?5263?4?56-789?:;?2,3?263?2A3?2B3?2C3?2D3?EF 2+GHI3A-J1=?2+GHI3EF 2+GHI3KKno76?F?G?)?#$?cq?ABCDE(?!#$?ABXCD?gu?9?O?de?fgUh?L?9?guUh?ABX?77?w(”.?TU?+,?_?lop?TUG?J?1?TUG?TU5?9A#V?9?ABCDC?.?;?de?m?ab?|U?g?9iO?C?P?|U?#?ab578?TUG.?L?d?(?TU5?I?ABCD?;?de?m?ab?|U?mW5?|U?c?M?_?!)*D
32、?DC?CD?fl?Y?p?579?TUGmn?M?.?d?(?TU5?ABCD?E?.xy?F?9?V?9?N?!?;?de?9NO?gq?O?de?c?L?!?CD?|U?#?c?vl?|U?c?L?580?$?$?.?ABD?R6?_?9TUR65?$?(?9N?ABD?L?5?ABDE?9NO?F?.!L?!?L?.?.?$?!?0#?$%?.?!&5?.?!L?!?L?.?$.?!?0#?$%?$?!&581?%?%?j%?=?“-a?p?RU?fifl?|%?RU?%?*ds?”?i?82?$?)%?RU?()(f*+?,?()(;?5?;-iO?9NO?$!*.iO/?0?9NO
33、?!5?vo?1?-?9NO?!?*.iO?9NO?!583?2?(;?3?4?0?h?.?;-iO?9NO?.?!5?9NO?6?!*.iO?9NO?6!5?.?0?#?-478?9x.?:“;”?AB?C?|UiO?9NO?CDL?5?CDE5.?$?0=tF?GH5lm84?6-7?7.8145.7 123.8 84402.3104498.512299319989.3134.4 115.2 78973.090995.310612719977.6154.1 133.7 89677.1119897.9138232199910.0117.7 106.9 71176.676094.9837411
34、99610.9109.4 99.9 60793.760750.56650819953.8105.5 81.9 18667.815293.419687199013.573.9 54.2 9016.04884.36666.319857.857.7 40.5 4545.61842.92624.319807.653.2 35.9 4062.61458.12162.61979?%?%?M2/GDP (%)GDP?M2?“?”?!“#”$%&85?6-7?10.4199.8163.1 183217.5298755.7366109.6200510.1199.8158.9 159878.3254107.031
35、9404.6200410.0206.1162.9 135822.8221222.8279863.7200311.6215.0163.1 211923.5345603.6455690.7200611.9161.7 249529.9403442.220079.1160.4 153.7 120332.7185007.0192968.220028.3157.0 144.4 109655.2158301.9172160.920018.4154.5 135.7 99214.6134610.41533122000?%?%?M2/GDP (%)GDP?M2?6-8?M2?GDP?2008 no86?6-8?1
36、.024.6711.1283.181255.9 574613682.7102308.312299319981.025.9412.9480.101406.2 821417881.0110724.813823219990.643.428.9287.01538.3 28677468.872867.08374119960.734.99.0885.28772.7 52049640.290510.01061271997003.1896.82176.65370.455471984?%?0.681.418.589.41453.3 9385655.459461.76650819950.7905.9593.261
37、55.8 1170.718360.61968719900.3903.6395.9825.7242.26398.46666.319850001002162.62162.6197987?6-8?1.35 2.90 13.25 82.50 4932.0 1063148503.6302043366109.620051.35 3.66 12.73 82.26 4318.0 1168940657.6262740319404.620041.586.4718.0973.863054.0 12484.634910.0142520.5192968.220021.394.7113.4080.513880.4 131
38、7937491.0225313.3 279863.720037036.0 93064454267.820071.24 5.49 13.13 80.15 5640.0 2500459816.6365230.1455690.72006?%?1.238.4014.6175.762109.4 1446325161.1130427.4172160.920011.0410.4912.8975.571598.0 1608819766.5115861.51533122000?“?”?!?no88?”?%?RU?6?*?6?GPIJ_W?KLAB?I?PwW_?MNO?PNQWO?AB?wW_?PNQWO?P“
39、RK”AB?S%?9?CT?D?.?wUqK?VW?.?21?(IJ_W?KL?z“RK”?3?W?KL?XY?wW_?MNO?PNQWO?589?”?%?RU?6?*?Z?G?|U?J?(?H(?*+?l?|U?_?,ab?J?cdH?|U?;-?*+?e?a?wUqK590?”?%?RU?6?*?G?|U?YJd?#e?3,?IJ?PN?f?-?l(?|U?(?9NO?CD?jg?|U?flh?;-?9NO?C?591?”?%?RU?6?*?0G?yfi?i?4?flh4?j?4?4Ak?M?|U?9NO?CD?1?-?*+?l?9NO?ab$d?(_m?“no_”sp5?92?!#$%&()*?+?,-./012?345(6789:)*;=93?(?)*+,-./012345678?!?%?1978-1985?1996?“?9-19?”?!#$?%?&?2008?“?9-18?()*”?!#+?no