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1、COVID-19,CYCLONES,AND FOREST FIRES:WHAT MAKES A CRISIS 2019新冠病毒病、旋风和森林火灾：是什么造成了危机？Arnold M.Howitt,Ph.D.阿诺德 M 豪威特博士 Co-Director,Program on Crisis Leadership 哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院危机领导力项目 联合主任 Senior Adviser,Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation Harvard Kennedy chool 艾什民主治理与创新中心 高级顾问 Johnson and Jo
2、hnson Chair in Leadership Schwarzman College Tsinghua University 清华大学苏世民书院强生公司领导力访问讲席教授 The Continuum 连续过程连续过程 2 NORMAL OPERATIONS 正常运作正常运作 MINOR OPERATING PROBLEMS 运作中出运作中出现小问题现小问题 EMERGENCIES 突发事件突发事件 ROUTINE EMERGENCIES 常规突发事件常规突发事件 CRISES 危机危机 Copyright 2012 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch
3、 Leonard.All rights reserved.What are the Characteristics of Routine Emergencies?常规突发事件的特征是什么？Characteristics 特征:Sudden,unplanned 突如其来、无计划的 High stakes 高风险 Urgent 紧急的 Outcomes will vary depending on plans/decisions/actions 后果根据计划/决定/行动不同而有所不同 Copyright 2018 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leon
4、ard.All rights reserved.Routine emergencies can be anticipated in terms of general characteristics,if not in timing and place 即使无法预见其时间或地点，常规突发事件可以预见其一般特征 What Constitutes Excellence in Routine Emergencies?我们针对常规突发事件做出卓越的应对有哪些要素？Preparedness 备灾工作:Robust set of contingency plans 强有力的应急计划 Clarity of g
5、oals and priorities 目标和优先事项明确 People 人员:Training 培训 Skills 技能 Exercises/Practice 演练 Real operational experience 实操经验 4 Response 应对:High situational awareness;responders know what to look for情境感知高；响应者知道应寻找什么 Confidence in purposes and capabilities 对目的和能力的信心 Executable checklist of SOPs to match/adapt
6、 to the situation 可执行的标准操作程序检查清单，能够匹配/适应所面临的情况 Copyright 2014 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.What Constitutes Excellence in Routine Emergencies?(2)我们针对常规突发事件做出卓越的应对有哪些要素？Leadership领导力:Expertise-driven 取决于专业知识 Leaders chosen for skills,effectiveness in prior experie
7、nces 领导者被选择是因其在以往经验中展示出的技能和效能 High authority and compliance 高权威性和服从性 Centralized responsibility and accountability 集中化的责任制和问责制 5 Hierarchical Decision-making and Command 等级化的等级化的决策和指挥决策和指挥 Copyright 2014 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.What is different about crises
8、?危机有何不同之处？Crisis Characteristics 危机的特征 Sudden,unplanned 突如其来、无计划的 High stakes 高风险 Urgent 紧急的 Outcomes will vary depending on plans/decisions/actions 后果因计划/决定/行动不同而有所不同 Significant elements of NOVELTY 新颖性的重要元素 7 CRISES Copyright 2014 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.N
9、ovelty Makes Crises Different from Routine Emergencies!新颖性使危机与常规突发事件有所不同！Characteristics特征:Sudden,unplanned 突如其来、无计划的 High stakes 高风险 Urgent 紧急的 Outcomes will vary depending on decisions/actions 后果因计划/决定/行动不同而有所不同 Significant elements of NOVELTY 新颖性的重要元素 Great uncertainty,low situational awareness 很
10、大的不确定性，情境感知低 No one is an expert on all aspects 没有人是全方面专家 Fear&high stress恐惧和高压 8 Lack of control 不受控制 Beyond usual operational capacities 超出正常的运作能力 No comprehensive plan 没有全面方案 No executable checklist of SOPs 没有可执行的标准操作程序检查清单 Predetermined actions may be insufficient or counter-productive 预定行动可能不够充
11、分，甚至会适得其反 Goals and priorities may not be clear;need to sort out 目标和优先事项可能不明确；需要梳理 Potential for political conflict 可能出现政治冲突 CRISES Copyright 2014 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.Two Forms of Crises 两种形式的危机 9 NORMAL OPERATIONS 正常运作 MINOR OPERATING PROBLEMS 运作中出现小问题
12、EMERGENCIES 突发事件 ROUTINE EMERGENCIES 常规突发事件 CRISES 危机 Copyright 2012 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.Two types of crisis 两种形式的危机 Type 1:Sudden Crises 类型1：突发性危机 10 NORMAL OPERATIONS 正常运作 MINOR OPERATING PROBLEMS 运作中出现小问题 EMERGENCIES 突发事件 ROUTINE EMERGENCIES 常规突发事件 CR
13、ISES 危机 Copyright 2012 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.Type 1:Sudden Crises 类型1：突发性危机 3.11 In Japan 日本日本3.11事件事件 Type 2:Emergent Crises 类型2：渐发性危机 11 NORMAL OPERATIONS 正常运作 MINOR OPERATING PROBLEMS 运作中出现小问题 EMERGENCIES 突发事件 ROUTINE EMERGENCIES 常规突发事件 CRISES 危机 Copyri
14、ght 2012 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.Type 2:Emergent Crises 类型2：渐发性危机 Three Mile Island Nuclear Plant in USA美美国三国三英英里岛核里岛核电站电站 Sudden Crisis 突发突发性危机性危机 12 Emergent Crisis 渐发性危机渐发性危机 Routine Emergency常规突发常规突发事件事件 Normal Operations 正常运作正常运作 Sudden vs.Emergent Cris
15、es 突发性危机 vs.渐发性危机 事件严重程度 时间 Critical Challenges of Novelty(1)新颖性的关键挑战（1）Recognizing novelty/developing situational awareness 认识到新颖性/发展出情境感知 Novelty is difficult to see if you dont know what to look for 如果你不知道要找什么，则很难看到新颖性 Many people know a little,so the problem is aggregating,analyzing,and sense-ma
16、king 很多人都知道一点，所以问题在于整合、分析、理解 Novelty conflicts with our current understanding and is thus easy to explain away 新颖事物与我们目前的理解相冲突，因此很容易敷衍地解释 13 CRISES Copyright 2012 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.Critical Challenges of Novelty(2)新颖性的关键挑战(2)Designing an effective resp
17、onse 设计有效的应对 What do we do when no one knows what to do?当没有人知道该做什么的时候，我们该怎么办？No one is an expert on all aspects of the problem 没有人是这个问题的全方面专家 Requires collaboration,not hierarchical command 需要合作，而不是等级化的命令 Requires group inquiry,not advocacy 需要合作开展调查，而不是宣传倡导 Situation demands improvisation,invention,
18、innovation 情境需要即兴发挥、创造、创新 14 CRISES Copyright 2012 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.Critical Challenges of Novelty(3)新颖性的关键挑战(3)Implementing the response 执行应对 No one has trained or practiced the improvised,untried solution 对于那些临时的、未经试验的解决方案，没有人受过培训或者实操过 Likely to req
19、uire collaboration among organizations that may never before have worked together 可能需要以前从未合作过的组织之间开展相互协作 Reasonable performance standard:best effort,not precision 合理的表现标准：尽力而为，无需精准 15 CRISES Copyright 2012 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.Two Distinct Modes of Operat
20、ions and Leadership 两种不同的两种不同的运转运转和领导模式和领导模式 For Routine Emergencies 对于常规突发事件:Development of contingency plans for different threats 制定针对不同威胁的应急计划 Professionalization of personnel through education,training,exercising 通过教育、培训、演练使人员专业化 Standardization of procedures and practices(SOPs)标准操作程序和实践(SOPs)L
21、eadership:based on authority and expertise 领导力：基于权威和专业知识 Hierarchical command structure 等级化的指挥结构 Precision execution 精准执行 For Crises 对于危机:Limited“scripts”;plans must be substantially adapted as the crisis develops 有限的“脚本”；随着危机的发展，计划必须进行重大调整 Incompletely specified skill sets;no one is an expert 未完全明确
22、的技能集；没有人是专家 Improvisation and invention required,not implementation of SOPs 需要即兴发挥和创造，而不是执行标准操作程序 Leadership:based on ability to cope with the unexpected 领导力：基于应对“意外”的能力 Variable command structure:collaborative to gather information,more directive for implementation 可变的指挥结构：协同收集信息，执行时更有指令性 Fault-tol
23、erant execution 能够容忍错误的执行 As a result,the demands of effective leadership and response in “crises”differ substantially from what is required for“routine emergencies”因此，“危机”中所需要的有效领导和应对，与“常规突发事件”的要求大不相同 17 A Bias Toward Preparing for Routine Emergencies 偏向于为常规突发事件做准备 In many ways,our thinking about o
24、perating in all emergency situations is captive to our experience and success in dealing with routine emergencies.从许多方面来说，我们在所有紧急情况下运作的思维方式，都取决于我们处理常规突发事件的经历与成功经验。Our techniques of preparedness are skewed in this direction,as exemplified by 我们的备灾方法会向这个方向倾斜，例如:Risk assessment known dangers 已知危险的风险评估
25、Contingency planning for identified risks 已确定风险的应急计划 Scenario-and plan-based training and exercises 基于情景和计划的培训和演练 After-action reports and adjustments for“lessons learned”from past experience 事后报告和针对过去经验中的“经验教训”做出调整 But these do not sufficiently consider the possibility of novel occurrences 但这些都没有充分
26、考虑新颖事物发生的可能性 18 Copyright 2018 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.Response organizations need to operate effectively in two modes 应急机构在两种模式下都需要有效运作：19 In“routine emergencies”(which represent 98%of what they do)在在“常规突发事件常规突发事件”中中（占据占据其其工作的工作的9898%）and in the far less co
27、mmon(but critical)true“crises”也在不太常见（却非常关键）的也在不太常见（却非常关键）的真正的危机中（运作）真正的危机中（运作）Xie xie/Thank you!Arnold M.Howitt,Ph.D.阿诺德阿诺德 M豪威特博士豪威特博士 Faculty Co-Director,Program on Crisis Leadership;Senior Adviser,Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation Harvard Kennedy School 哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院危机领导力项目联合主任危机领导力项目联合主任，艾什民主治理与创艾什民主治理与创新中心新中心 高级顾问高级顾问 Johnson and Johnson Chair in Leadership and Distinguished Visiting Professor Schwarzman College Tsinghua University 清华大学苏世民书院强生公司领导力清华大学苏世民书院强生公司领导力访问访问讲席教授讲席教授 Arnold_Howitthks.Harvard.edu www.hks.harvard.edu/programs/crisisleadership