《国际货币基金组织在欧债危机的作用及局限.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《国际货币基金组织在欧债危机的作用及局限.ppt（29页珍藏版）》请在taowenge.com淘文阁网|工程机械CAD图纸|机械工程制图|CAD装配图下载|SolidWorks_CaTia_CAD_UG_PROE_设计图分享下载上搜索。
1、国际货币基金组织在欧国际货币基金组织在欧债危机中的作用及局限债危机中的作用及局限一、希腊债务危机新闻报道一、希腊债务危机新闻报道 希腊援助谈判紧锣密鼓僵局待破 外界违约担忧加剧 2015年06月26日 07:45来源：经济参考报王婧 欧元区财长会和欧盟峰会25日均在布鲁塞尔举行，但欧元区财长会之前希腊和国际债权方（国际货币基金组织、欧洲央行和欧盟）仍未能达成援助协议递交会议进行审核。希腊总理齐普拉斯25日仍在布鲁塞尔与国际债权方展开艰难的援助谈判。希腊正试图在最后时刻与国际债权方达成一致，以避免下个星期出现债务违约，甚至导致其面临退出欧元区的威胁。希腊援助谈判僵局已经持续了五个月，24日的谈判
2、尽管延续至深夜，双方仍然没有达成一致。齐普拉斯25日清晨与国际货币基金组织（IMF）主席拉加德、欧洲央行行长德拉吉、欧元集团主席杰伦以及欧盟委员会主席容克再次重启了援助谈判。但在25日上午的欧元区财长会之前，谈判双方仍未能达成协议，这意味着财长会将无法审核协议内容，从而为欧盟峰会批准协议作准备。25日晚间欧盟领导人峰会将举行，一旦之前希腊和国际债权方达成任何协议，料将都会获得欧盟的支持。双方谈判分歧出现扩大迹象，有分析认为，谈判很可能会拖至周末。德国财长朔伊布勒25日在欧元区财长会前表示，希腊在谈判中没有向前迈进反而在倒退，双方的分歧没有减少反而增加。希腊最新提出的改革提案包括进一步削减开支，
3、增加对商业和富裕阶层的征税，选择性的增加增值税，以及抑制提早退休的改革措施等。但据媒体报道，国际援助方认为增税和减支幅度均达不到预期，尤其是IMF不愿意接受希腊提出的改革方案。希腊政府25日拒绝了国际债权方23日提出的改革要求，称这些要求是在试图“胁迫”希腊政府。据希腊媒体报道，希腊目前已经答应国际债权方削减80亿欧元的开支，但是国际债权方要求其再多削减23亿欧元。国际债权方还希望通过增值税增加希腊政府的收入，要求将餐饮业的增值税由目前的13%提高到23%，但希腊政府不愿意再更多削减开支，也担心提高增值税会影响对经济来说至关重要的旅游业。欧盟委员会主管经济事务的委员皮埃尔莫斯科维奇在24日磋商
4、前还对于达成一致信心满满，表示“只要有解决的意愿，就会有解决的方法”。但是在深夜的两个小时磋商之后，希腊政府的立场依然坚定。希腊劳工部长帕诺斯斯库尔莱蒂斯表示，如果不涉及债务改革和促进经济增长的方案，就无法达成协议，希腊也不接受削减薪资和养老金。据英国卫报报道，希腊政府内部人士透露，目前政府正在考虑所有可能的结果。希腊媒体25日报道称，最终与欧洲决裂也是可能的结果之一。即使达成协议递交欧元区财长会和欧盟峰会通过后，援助协议还需递交希腊国以及其他欧元区政府投票通过。一些批评人士认为，希腊改革方案的一些内容可能会被认为是违背了希腊新政府当初终结紧缩的承诺，因此协议获得国会通过也将成为一大挑战。希腊
5、30日需偿还国际货币基金组织16亿欧元的到期贷款，否则就面临违约。一旦出现违约，希腊还可能面临退出欧元区的威胁，进而可能会对欧洲甚至全球经济造成重大影响。因此，希腊迫切需要与国际贷款方达成援助协议，以获得第二轮援助中最后一批72亿欧元的贷款。由于担忧希腊可能出现债务违约，欧元25日略微上涨后逐步走低，英国和法国的股市开盘均出现下滑，亚太地区主要股指大多走低。希腊股市25日开盘下跌，一度跌幅超过2%，但随后市场乐观情绪回升，转而上涨。25日开始的欧盟领导人峰会中，除了希腊问题，移民危机问题也将是主要议题之一，英国首相卡梅伦还将公布其对于欧盟改革要求的大纲。（记者 王婧）The The Greek
6、 Greek aid aid talks talks deadlock deadlock wildly wildly beating beating gongs gongs and and drums drums to to be be brokenbroken，Outside Outside default default fears fears intensified.intensified.Euro Euro zone zone finance finance ministers ministers will will and and the the European European
7、Union Union summit summit 25 25 daily daily in in Brussels,Brussels,but but eurozone eurozone finance finance ministers ministers before before Greek Greek and and international international creditors creditors(the(the International International Monetary Monetary Fund Fund and and the the European
8、 European Central Central Bank Bank and and the the European European Union)Union)still still failed failed to to reach reach a a assistance assistance agreement agreement submitted submitted to to the the meeting meeting for for review.Greek review.Greek Prime Prime Minister Minister Tsipras Tsipra
9、s 25 25 is is still still in in Brussels Brussels with with the the international international creditor creditor to to launch launch a a difficult difficult aid aid negotiations.negotiations.Greece Greece is is trying trying to to reach reach an an agreement agreement with with the the internationa
10、l international creditors creditors at at the the final final moment moment to to avoid avoid a a debt debt default default next next week,week,and and even even lead lead to to a a threat threat to to the the euro zoneuro zon.Greek Greek aid aid to to the the deadlock deadlock has has lasted lasted
11、 for for five five months,months,24 24 days days of of negotiations negotiations continued continued until until late late at at night,night,the the two two sides sides still still did did not not reach reach a a consensus.consensus.Alexis Alexis tsipras tsipras 25 25 early early in in the the morni
12、ng,morning,and and the the International International Monetary Monetary Fund Fund(IMF),(IMF),Christine Christine Lagarde,Lagarde,the the European European Central Central Bank Bank(ECB(ECB president president Mario Mario Draghi,Draghi,the the euro euro group group chairman chairman Jay Jay and and
13、the the European European Commission Commission Chairman Chairman Juncker Juncker again again to to restart restart the the aid aid talks.talks.But But before before the the 25 25 morning morning of of the the euro euro zone zone finance finance ministers ministers meeting,meeting,the the two two si
14、des sides still still failed failed to to reach reach the the agreement,agreement,which which means means that that the the finance finance ministers ministers will will not not be be able able to to review review the the agreement,agreement,so so as as to to prepare prepare for for the the EU EU su
15、mmit summit agreement.agreement.25 25 evening evening the the European European Union Union summit summit will will be be held,held,once once Greece Greece and and the the international international creditor creditor Fang Fang Dacheng Dacheng any any agreement,agreement,expected expected to to rece
16、ive receive the the EUs support.EUs support.There There are are signs signs of of expansion expansion of of the the two two sides sides of of the the negotiations,negotiations,there there are are analysis,analysis,negotiations negotiations are are likely likely to to drag drag to to the the end end
17、of of the the week.week.German German finance finance minister minister Schauble Schauble 25 25 in in the the euro euro zone zone finance finance ministers ministers before before the the meeting,meeting,Greece Greece in in the the negotiations negotiations did did not not move move forward forward
18、but but in in the the back,back,the the two two sides sides did did not not reduce reduce the the differences differences but increased.but increased.Greeces Greeces latest latest reform reform proposals proposals include include further further cuts cuts in in spending,spending,increasing increasin
19、g taxes taxes on on businesses businesses and and the the rich,rich,increasing increasing VAT,VAT,and and inhibiting inhibiting early early retirement.retirement.However,However,according according to to media media reports,reports,the the international international aid aid party party believes bel
20、ieves that that tax tax increases increases and and the the reduction reduction of of the the magnitude magnitude of of the the expected,expected,in in particular,particular,IMF IMF is is not not willing willing to accept the reform program proposed by greece.to accept the reform program proposed by
21、 greece.The The Greek Greek government government on on the the 25 25 day day of of the the 23 23 day day of of the the international international creditors creditors rejected rejected the the reform reform requirements,requirements,saying saying that that these these requirements requirements are
22、are trying trying to to stress stress the the Greek Greek government.government.According According to to Greek Greek media media reports,reports,Greece Greece has has promised promised to to reduce reduce the the cost cost of of 8000000000 8000000000 euros euros of of international international cr
23、editors,creditors,but but the the international international creditors creditors request request to to cut cut it it more more than than 2300000000 2300000000 euros.euros.International International creditors creditors also also hope hope that that through through the the VAT VAT increase increase
24、the the Greek Greek government government income,income,the the requirements requirements of of the the food food and and beverage beverage industry industry value-added value-added tax tax from from the the current current 13%13%to to 23%,23%,but but the the Greek Greek government government is is
25、not not willing willing to to more more spending spending cuts,cuts,also also worried worried about about the the increase increase in in value-added value-added tax tax will will impact on the economy the vital tourism industry.impact on the economy the vital tourism industry.The The European Europ
26、ean Commission Commission is is in in charge charge of of economic economic affairs,affairs,a a member member of of Pierre Pierre Moscovici Moscovici before before 24 24 consultation consultation is is to to reach reach a a consistent consistent confidence,confidence,said said as as long long as as
27、there there is is a a willingness willingness to to solve,solve,there there will will be be a a solution.solution.But But after after two two hours hours of of negotiations negotiations in in the the night,night,the the Greek Greek governments position is still strong.governments position is still s
28、trong.The The Greek Greek Minister Minister of of labour labour Panos Panos Skulletis Skulletis said said if if does does not not involve involve debt debt reform reform and and promoting promoting economic economic growth,growth,was was unable unable to to reach reach agreement,agreement,Greece Gre
29、ece does does not not accept accept cuts cuts in in wages wages and and pensions.pensions.According According to to the the British British Guardian Guardian reported reported that that the the Greek Greek government government insiders,insiders,the the current current government government is is co
30、nsidering considering all all the the possible possible results.results.Greek Greek media media reported reported 25,25,one one of of the the final final rupture rupture is is possible possible and and results in europe.results in europe.Even Even if if the the agreement agreement is is to to be be
31、delivered delivered to to the the euro euro zone zone finance finance ministers ministers and and the the European European Union Union summit,summit,the the aid aid agreement agreement is is required required to to submit submit to to Greece Greece and and other other euro euro zone zone government
32、s.governments.Some Some critics critics believe believe that that Greeces Greeces reform reform program program some some content content may may is is considered considered to to be be against against the the new new Greek Greek government government at at the the beginning beginning of of the the
33、end end of of the the promised promised austerity,austerity,so so the the protocol protocol obtained obtained through through Congress Congress will will also become a major challenge.also become a major challenge.Greece Greece 30 30 days days to to repay repay the the International International Mo
34、netary Monetary Fund Fund 1600000000 1600000000 euros euros of of maturity maturity loans,loans,otherwise otherwise it it is is a a breach breach of of contract.contract.In In the the event event of of a a breach breach of of contract,contract,Greece Greece may may also also face face the the threat
35、 threat of of exit exit from from the the euro euro zone,zone,which which may may have have a a significant significant impact impact on on Europe Europe and and even even global global economy.economy.Therefore,Therefore,Greece Greece is is in in urgent urgent need need of of assistance assistance
36、agreement agreement with with international international lenders lenders to to obtain obtain the the final final batch batch of of 7200000000 7200000000 euros euros of of loans loans for for the the second second round round of of aid.aid.Fears Fears that that Greece Greece may may default default
37、on on the the debt,debt,the the euro euro 25 25 days days after after a a slight slight rise rise in in the the gradual gradual decline,decline,the the stock stock market market opened opened in in the the UK UK and and France France have have declined,declined,the the Asia Asia Pacific Pacific regi
38、ons regions major major indexes indexes are are lower.lower.The The Greek Greek stock stock market market fell fell 25,25,once once the the decline decline in in more more than than 2%,2%,but but then then the market sentiment rebounded,turn up.the market sentiment rebounded,turn up.In In the the be
39、ginning beginning of of the the 25th 25th summit summit of of EU EU leaders,leaders,in in addition addition to to Greece,Greece,immigration immigration crisis crisis will will also also be be one one of of the the main main topics,topics,British British Prime Prime Minister Minister David David Came
40、ron Cameron will will be be released released for for the the requirements requirements of of the the EU EU reform reform outline.outline.(reporte(reported byd by Wang Jing)Wang Jing)二、国际货币基金组织（二、国际货币基金组织（IMFIMF）的作用及局）的作用及局限限 国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund，简称:IMF)是根据1944年7月在布雷顿森林会议签订的国际货币基金协定，
41、于1945年12月27日在华盛顿成立的。与世界银行同时成立、并列为世界两大金融机构之一，其职责是监察货币汇率和各国贸易情况，提供技术和资金协助，确保全球金融制度运作正常。其总部设在华盛顿。国际货币基金、国际清算银行（BIS）及世界银行，被称为“布雷顿森林机构”。几乎所有实行市场经济的国家，其金融政策均受这三家机构影响。国际货币基金组织的资金来源于各成员认缴的份额。成员享有提款权，即按所缴份额的一定比例借用外汇。1969年又创设“特别提款权”的货币（记账）单位，作为国际流通手段的一个补充，以缓解某些成员的国际收入逆差。成员有义务提供经济资料，并在外汇政策和管理方面接受该组织的监督，在国际货币体系
42、中起着枢纽和核心作用。IMF主要业务活动有：向成员提供货款，在货币问题上促进国际合作，研究国际货币制度改革的有关问题，研究扩大基金组织的作用，提供技术援助和加强同其它国际机构的联系。促进国际货币的磋商与合作；促进国际贸易的均衡发展；促进各国汇率的稳定；为经常性交易建立多边支付和汇兑制度；为会员国融通资金提供便利；争取减少各成员国国际收支的不平衡。国际货币基金主要的角色是核数师，工作是记录各国之间的贸易数字，和各国间的债务，并主持制定国际货币经济政策。至于世界银行，则主要提供长期贷款。由于IMF不是银行，它不会放款。然而，国际货币基金有储备金，供国家借用，以在短时间内稳定货币；做法类似在往来户口
43、中透支。所借款项必须于5年内清还。IMF的议事规则很有特点，执行加权投票表决制。投票权由两部分组成，每个成员国都有250票基本投票权，以及根据各国所缴份额所得到的加权投票权。由于基本票数各国一样，因此在实际决策中起决定作用的是加权投票权。加权投票权与各国所缴份额成正比，而份额又是根据一国的国民收入总值、经济发展程度、战前国际贸易幅度等多种因素确定的。目前IMF的投票权主要掌握在美国、欧盟和日本手中，中国的份额甚至不如比利时与荷兰的总和。美国是IMF的最大股东，具有17.69%的份额，中国仅占4%，显然不能准确反映中国在世界经济中日益增加的重要性。IMF这种以经济实力划分成员国发言权和表决权的做
44、法与传统国际法的基本原则显然是背离的，引起了不少国家尤其是发展中国家的不满。基金组织的最高权力机构为理理事事会会，由各成员国派正、副理事各一名组成，一般由各国的财政部长或中央银行行长担任。每年9月举行一次会议，各理事会单独行使本国的投票权（各国投票权的大小由其所缴基金份额的多少决定）；执行董事会负责日常工作，行使理事会委托的一切权力，由24名执行董事组成，其中8名由基金份额最大的5个国家（美、日、德、法、英）和另外3个国家（中、俄、沙）任命。其余16名执行董事由其他成员国分别组成16个选区选举产生；中国为单独选区，亦有一席。中国是该组织创始国之一。1980年4月17日，国际货币基金组织正式恢复
45、中国的代表权。中国在该组织中的份额为亿特别提款权，占总份额的4%，2010年11月6日国际货币基金组织通过改革方案，中国投票权份额占比升至6.39%。据统计，基本投票权曾经超过IMF所有投票权的15%，但由于IMF的扩大，现在只占总数的2%。2010年中国的份额将由目前的3.65%升至6.19%，超越德、法、英，位列美国和日本之后。不过，改革后拥有17.67%份额的美国依旧拥有“否决权”。冷战后期以来，布雷顿森林机构的角色一直引起争议。有批评指出，基金偏袒与欧美公司有良好关系的资本主义军事独裁者。有经济学家批评，国际货币基金的经济援助都是“有条件地”批出：受援助国需要实行基金建议的经济改革。经
46、济学家认为，这样做会影响国家的社会稳定，实际上适得其反。大部分反对经济全球化的组织，例如ATTAC，认为IMF加深了贫穷问题，也增加了第三世界国家和发展中国家的债务负担。阿根廷因采用布雷顿森林机构提出的经济政策，而被IMF推崇为模范国家。然而，2001年，该国出现灾难性的金融危机，不少人相信是由IMF倡议的紧缩财政预算和私有化重要资源开发项目所致。紧缩的预算削弱了政府维持基础建设、福利、教育服务的能力。阿根廷的金融危机加深了南美洲国家对IMF的怨恨，他们指责基金要为南美地区的经济问题负责1。受到阿根廷经济危机影响，现时南美地区的政府渐走中间偏左的路线，并致力摆脱商业企业对经济政策的压力。另一个
47、引起争议的国家是肯尼亚。原本肯尼亚的中央银行控制了该国货币的流动，IMF提出协助后，要求放宽货币政策。调整后不但外商投资大减，在贪污官员的腐蚀下，Kamlesh Manusuklal Damji Pattni 亏空了数以十亿计的肯尼亚先令（是为 Goldenberg scandal），肯尼亚的财政状况比之前更差。国际货币基金亡羊补牢的行动影响了它的声誉：往往当国家已深受经济打击，IMF才伸手援助。其实，这些国家出现经济问题，通常是数十年管理不善的结果，而不为外界所知。管理不善导致国家陷入多年的经济困境，IMF通常于这时提供协助，人们于是把经济崩溃与IMF的介入连系起来。犯政客善于转移视线，利用
48、民族主义和人们对IMF的坏印象，以IMF作自己的代罪羔羊。尽管西方社会对国际货币基金毁誉参半，研究中心的调查显示，超过60%的亚洲人和70%的非洲人认为，IMF和世界银行对他们的国家有“正面”的影响。近期，欧债危机被一系列突发事件捆绑，紧张空气持续酝酿，危机前景愈发扑朔迷离。为缓解投资者的担忧情绪，欧洲央行频频干预债市，但效果并不理想。正当各方人士为是否推出欧洲共同债券而绞尽脑汁之时，国际货币基金组织（IMF）批准了其60年来历史上最为灵活的新贷款机制，旨在更好地帮助有需要的国家应对危机。IMF官方公告显示，新改革以灵活度更大的预防性和流动性安排（PLL）取代以前的预防性信贷安排（PCL）。新
49、的工具可用于包括应对未来市场振荡的风险和短期流动性窗口等。根据规定，新的流动性额度将会为经济政策相对较好的国家提供6个月贷款，最高可达成员国出资额的5倍，且几乎无附加条款。同时，新设定的预留和流动性额度也可以用于一年至两年的较长期贷款项目，最高可达成员国利得财富的10倍，此规定有较多附带条件，并将受到IMF理事会审核。而IMF当前的紧急援助工具（自然灾害紧急援助和战乱后紧急援助）则并入新的快速融资工具（RFI），可用于为各种紧急国际收支需要提供支持，包括外生冲击带来的国际收支需要。快速融资工具一经批准，可立即向成员国提供资金，年度限额为成员国份额的50%，累计限额为份额的100%。IMF总裁拉
50、加德也指出，新工具将使基金组织更迅速和有效地应对危机，这有利于所有成员，也是朝着建设全球金融安全网的目标又进了一步。此消息有效提振了市场信心，令欧元区的压力得到一定缓解，欧元兑美元在纽约交易时段小幅下跌之后略有回升。中国银行国际金融研究所高级分析师王家强、中国银河证券首席经济学家潘向东均认为，对小型经济体以及债务负担适度的经济体来说，此举可以有效避免流动性危机和债务违约风险，但对意大利、西班牙等债务沉重的经济体而言，则更多是象征意义，很难取得实质性效果。“当然，此次推出扩大贷款规模的规定，目的在于稳定信心，撬动更多的私人资本和国际资金参与危机救援。”王家强表示。即使扩大贷款规模至储备额度的10