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1、JANUARY 2021ISSUE 380INVESTMENTTRENDS MONITOREMBARGO24 JANUARY 2021,18:00 GMT(13:00 New York, 19:00 Geneva)GLOBAL FDI FLOWS DOWN 42% IN 2020Further weakness expected in 2021, risking sustainable recoveryG H L I G H T S A Global foreign direct investment (FDI) collapsed in 2020, falling by 42% to an
2、estimated $859 billion, from $t5 trillion in 2019 (figure 1). FDI finished 2020 more than 30% below the trough after the global financial crisis in 2009. The decline was concentrated in developed countries, where FDI flows fell by 69% to an estimated $229 billion. Flows to Europe dried up completely
3、 to -4 billion (including large negative flows in several countries). A sharp decrease was also recorded in the United States (-49%) to $134 billion. The decline in developing economies was relatively measured at -12% to an estimated $616 billion. The share of developing economies in global FDI reac
4、hed 72% - the highest share on record. China topped the ranking of the largest FDI recipients. The fall In FDI flows across developing regions was uneven, with -37% in Latin America and the Caribbean, -18% in Africa and -4% in developing Asia. East Asia was the largest host region, accounting for on
5、e-third of global FDI in 2020. FDI to the transition economies declined by 77% to $13 billion.Figure 1. FDI inflows: global and by group of economies, 2007-2020* (Billions of US dollars)Transition economies -Developed economies -Developing economies World total2500 -：* Preliminary estimates.$13-77%T
6、his report can be freely cited provided appropriate acknowledgement is given to UNCTAD. This publication has not been formally edited.Figure S. Value of announced cross-border M&As, 2019 01 2020 04 (Billions of US dollars)Source: UNCTAD based on Refinitiv SA.Lola. Announced M&A deal values, which ar
7、e on a gross basis, are not comparable with the data on completed deals reported in the earlier sections (net cross border M&As)Acquiring firms are mostly based in devel叩ed economies (80%), with European companies significantly increasing M&A activity. A few MNEs from developing countries are active
8、 buyers. In the healthcare industry South African investors plan to acquire stakes in healthcare providers across Africa and Asia. This includes hospital Advanced Healths announcements targeting four healthcare providers in Australia. In the technology industry, firms based in developing Asia announ
9、ced several deals. Chinese acquirers are maintaining the same level of activity as in 2019. However, Indian IT companies (Wipro, Tech Mahindra, Mastek) announced an increase in acquisitions by 30%, targeting European and other markets for IT services, and Korean (Samsung SK Hynix) and Taiwanese (Hon
10、 Hai, MediaTeK) MNEs are also increasing M&A activity in the semiconductor market.10JANUARY 2021JANUARY 2021ISSUE 38Trends In selected economies:o FDI in China, where the early phase of the pandemic caused steep drops in capital expenditures, ended the year with a small increase (+4%).oFDI in India
11、rose by 13% boosted by investments in the digital sector.oFDI in ASEAN - an engine of FDI growth throughout the last decade - was down 31 %.o The halving of FDI inflows to the United States was due to sharp drops in both greenfield investment and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As).o FDI in
12、 the EU fell by two thirds, with major declines in all the largest recipients; flows to the United Kingdom fell to zero. Looking ahead, the FDI trend is expected to remain weak in 2O2t Data on an announcement basis, an indicator of forward trends, provides a mixed picture and point at continued down
13、ward pressure:o Sharply lower greenfield project announcements (-35% in 2020) suggest a turnaround in industrial sectors is not yet in sighto Upticks in the fourth quarter of 2020 dampened earlier declines in newly announced international project finance deals (-2% for the full year). International
14、investment in infrastructure sectors could thus prove stronger, also buoyed by economic support packages in developed countries.o Similarly, the 2020 decline in cross-border M&As (-10%) was cushioned by higher values in the last part of the year. Looking at M&A announcements, strong deal activity in
15、 technology and pharmaceutical industries is expected to push M&A-driven FDI flows higher. For developing countries, the trends in greenfield and project finance announcements are a major concern. Although overall FDI flows in developing economies appear relatively resilient, greenfield announcement
16、s fell by 46% (-63% in Africa; -51% in Latin America and the Caribbean, and -38% in Asia) and international project finance by 7% (-40% in Africa), These investment types are crucial for productive capacity and infrastructure development and thus for sustainable recovery prospects. Risks related to
17、the latest wave of the pandemic, the pace of the roll-out of vaccination programmes and economic support packages, fragile macroeconomic situations in major emerging markets, and uncertainty about the global policy environment for investment will all continue to affect FDI in 2021.UNCTADs GITM: Firs
18、t full-year estimates for 2020 FDI flows 153 economies included 111 national official sources verified end- year estimates 98% of global FDI flows coveredGlobal FDI inflows, The trend monitor is based on FDI inflows fori 53 economies for which data are available for at least part of 2020, as of 21 J
19、anuary 2020. These economies account for 98% of global FDI flows. Annual figures are estimated based on available partial-year data, in most cases up to the third quarter of 2020. The proportion of inflows from these economies in total inflows to their respective region in 2019 is used to extrapolat
20、e 2020 regional and global data. Quarterly FDI data are based on the directional principle. For a few countries FDI data follow the asset/liability principle. excluding Caribbean offshore financial centers, fell by 42% in 2020, reaching an estimated $859 billion, in line with the forecast in the Wor
21、ld Investment Report 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic affected all types of investment greenfield investment project announcements (-35%), cross- border M&As (-10%) and new international project finance deals (-2%).By region, falling flows to Europe (by more than 100%) and North America (- 46%) contribut
22、ed most to the global decline. FDI flows fell by only 4% in developing Asia (figure 2), As a result of these regional differences, the share of developing economies increased to 72% of the world total.Figure 2. FDI inflows by region, 2019 and 2020* (Billions of US dollars)WorldWorldDeveoped economie
23、s229730859Per cent-42-6SEurope344North America-46Developing economies616I 702-12n2020,2019AfricaAfrica3846Latin America and the CaribbeanLatin America and the Caribbean101160-37Developing AsiaDeveloping Asia476495Transition economiesTransition economies13I 58-77-24-8EE 413Sou a: UNCTAD* Preliminary
24、estimates.Looking at top FDI Lost economies, China became the largest recipient, attracting an estimated $163 billion in inflows, followed by the United States with $134 billion. The dramatic impact of COVID-19 on FDI inflows in major economies is illustrated most clearly by the trends in the top re
25、cipients before the pandemic. Figure 3 shows the percentage change in the largest economies in the 2019 top 20 (as reported annually in the World Investment Report), In relative terms, flows declined most strongly in the United Kingdom, Italy, Russian Federation, Germany, Brazil and United States. I
26、ndia and China bucked the trend.Figure 3. Changes in 2020 FDI inflows for selected top 2019 recipient economies (Per cent)United KingdomItalyRussian FederationGermanyBrazilUnited StatesAustraliaFranceCanadaIndonesiaMexicoChinaIndiaSourcO: UNCTADFDI flows to developed economies plummetedFDI flows to
27、developed countries fell drastically by 69% to values last seen almost 25 years ago. Of the global decline of $630 billion, almost 80% was accounted for by developed economies. At an estimated $229 billion, inflows in developed economies were only one third of the low point after the global financia
28、l crisis in 2009 (at $714 billion). Multinational enterprises (MNEs) significantly reduced new equity investments. In combination with lower M&A activity this resulted in a marked decline in the equity component of FDI (to near-zero), Intra-company loans turned negative (-$134 billion) as parent fir
29、ms withdrew or were paid back loans from their affiliates, strengthening their balance sheets at home. Contrary to earlier expectations and despite significantly lower profit levels, reinvested earnings in foreign affiliates remained relatively stable, declining by only 6% (figure 4).Inflows to Euro
30、pe dropped into negative territory (-$4 billion) mainly due to sharply negative FDI in countries with significant conduit flows, such as the Netherlands and Switzerland. Flows to the Netherlands fell to an estimated -$150 billion in 2020 due to large equity divestments and negative intra-company loa
31、ns (-$125 billion and -$102 billion, respectively), The value of cross-border M&As in the country reached almost $100 billion due to a corporate reconfiguration registered as a merger of Unilever (United Kingdom) with Unilever (Netherlands) for $81 billion. FDI to Switzerland remained negative at -$
32、88 billion, due in part to large equity divestments (to an estimated - $155 billion).FDI to the EU27 fell by 71% to an estimated $110 billion from $373 billion in 2019. Among EU members, 17 saw their FDI decline. Germany posted a large decrease (from a revised $58 billion in 2019 to $23 billion) des
33、pite a jump in cross-border M&As. Flows fell strongly to Italy and Austria due to large divestments; in Italy the mobile tower assets of Vodafone (United Kingdom) were sold to Telecom Italia SpA for $5,8 billion, while in Austria Mubadala Investment Co PJSC (United Arab Emirates) divested 36% of Bor
34、ealis to OMV AG for $4.7 billion. France also saw its FDI decline by 39% to $21 billion due in part to lower M&A sales which fell from $18 billion to $5.1 billion.Figure 4. Developed economies: FDI inflows by components 2005-2020*(Billions of US dollars)Intra-company loansEquityReinvested earnings1
35、2002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*Source. UNCTAD.* Preliminary estimates.FDI flows to the United Kingdom were -$1.3 billion (from $45 billion in 2019) mainly due to large negative intracompany loans and some equity divestments (for example, Swiss Re d
36、ivested its ReAssure Group to Phoenix Group Holding for $4.2 billion). Reinvested earnings turned positive to an estimated $27 billion from -$5 billion in 2019.There were a few European countries that saw their FDI increase despite the crisis. FDI to Sweden doubled from $12 billion to $29 billion, a
37、s United States MNEs injected loans in their affiliates in the country. FDI to Spain rose 52% due to several acquisitions (for example a group of private equities from the United States (Cinven, KKR and Providence), acquired 86% of Masmovil for $2,8 billion).FDI flows to North America fell by 46% to
38、 $166 billion with cross-border M&As dropping by 43%, Announced greenfield investment projects also fell by 29% and project finance deals by 2%, FDI to the United States halved (- 49%) to an estimated $134 billion. Investments in the United States by MNEs from the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan d
39、eclined significantly. The decline took place in wholesale trade, financial services and manufacturing. Cross-border M&A sales of United States assets to foreign investors fell by 41 % mostly in the primary sector. FDI in Canada decreased by 34% to $32 billion, as MNEs from the United States halved
40、new investment in the country.Among other developed economies, flows to Australia fell (-46% to $22billion), while those to Israel increased (from $18 billion to $26 billion), as did those to Japan (from $15 billion to $17 billion), In Israel M&As sales in computer related industries rose by 31 % to
41、 $7,3 billion (for example Nvidia (United States) acquired Mellanox for $6,9 billion).Developing economies now account for more than 70% of global FDIFDI flows to developing economies decreased by 12% (to an estimated $616 billion). The decline was reflected across all types of investment: the value
42、 of announced greenfield projects (-46%), the number of cross-border project finance deals (-7%) and the value of cross-border M&As sales (-4%).FDI in developing Asia fell by 4% to an estimated $476 billion in 2020, the mildest FDI contraction among all regions. FDI in East Asia actually grew 12% to
43、 $283 billion. This was due in part to a rebound of financial flows to Hong Kong, China (+40%) after unrests resulted in exceptionally low values in 2019. FDI flows to China rose by 4% to $163 billion, making the country the largest recipient in 2020. A return to positive GDP growth (+2.3%) and the
44、Governments targeted investment facilitation programme helped stabilize investment after the early lockdown. FDI in high tech industries was up by 11 % in 2020. Cross-border M&As rose by 54% mostly in ICT and pharmaceutical industries. A notable deal was the acquisition of BeiGene by Amgen (United S
45、tates) for $4.9 billion. In the Republic of Korea. FDI fell by 42% to $6 billion, with a significant decline in cross-border M&As.FDI in South-East Asia contracted by 31 % to $107 billion due to a decline in investment to the largest recipients in the subregion: inflows in Singapore fell by 37% to $
46、58 billion, Indonesia by 24% to $18 billion, Viet Nam by 10% to $14 billion and Malaysia by 68% to $2.5 billion. In Singapore, through which investments in the subregion are often tunneled, cross-border M&As contracted by 86%, reflecting a significant slowdown of foreign acquisitions in the subregio
47、n. In Thailand, FDI contracted 50% to $1.5 billion, mainly due to a large divestment (Tesco (United Kingdom) sold its stores to a Thai investor group for $9.9 billion). FDI flows in the Philippines, bucking the trend, rose by 29% to $6,4 billion. The strength of South-East Asia as an FDI engine rema
48、ined evident; announced greenfield investment contracted more moderately (-14%) than in other developing regions. South- East Asia registered more than $70 billion in new greenfield investment projects, the largest volume among developing regions. An uptick in the number of projects in Q3 in Singapo
49、re could signal an impending FDI recovery in the region. In addition, the signing of RCEP could help renew FDI growth (see GITM37 Special Issue on RCEP).FDI in South Asia rose by 10% to $65 billion. India saw FDI rising by 13% to $57 billion as investment in the digital economy continued, particularly through acquis