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1、中国蔬菜农产品出口贸易影响因素研究基于引力模型的实证分析AbstractDistance and economic scale between trading countries promote or restrain the trade flow of bilateral agricultural products. It is generally believed that the potential supply of exporting countries and the potential demand of importing countries are the main fact
2、ors affecting trade flows. On the one hand, distance refers to the transportation costs caused by the geographical distance between two trading countries, and also includes the costs of obtaining information and communicating with each. The farther the distance between trading countries is, the high
3、er the cost of various trade will be, and more unfavorable the trade of agricultural products. Based on the vegetable trade flow data of 30 countries and regions, the gravitate model of vegetable trade flow in China was constructed by gradually adding cultivated land area, population and exchange ra
4、te. The relationship between the export trade flow of vegetable and agricultural products in China and the economic scale, per capita cultivated land area, total population, distance between the two countries and the exchange rate of China were discussed. The results indicate that the export trade f
5、low of vegetable products in China is positively correlated with the economic scale, per capital cultivated land area and exchange rate of the trading countries, and negatively correlated with the distance between the two countries and the total population. Countermeasures and suggestions are provid
6、ed to enhance Chinas international competitiveness of vegetable products and promote the further development of Chinas vegetable products trade.Key Words: vegetables production trade; influencing factors; gravity model1. Introduction1.1 Research Background and Significance1.1.1 Research BackgroundSi
7、nce Chinas reform and opening up, the export volume of vegetable and agricultural products has been increasing. In the early 1990s, the export volume of vegetable agricultural products was at a low level. From 2001 to 2010, the export trade of vegetables and agricultural products ushered in a decade
8、 of rapid growth, from 1.485 billion US dollars to 6.031 billion US dollars, with an average annual growth rate of 15.05%. Since 2010, the growth rate of vegetable export trade has slowed down significantly, and the trade flow in 2012 dropped from 6.518 billion US dollars in 2011 to 5.728 billion US
9、 dollars, but in the following years, it has been rising steadily, and the total export volume in 2017 is 76.08 billion US dollars. The average annual growth rate is 2.23%. With the continuous development of science and technology to promote the continuous improvement of logistics technology, in rec
10、ent years, the terms of trade of vegetable agricultural products exports have become more and more comprehensive. However, since 2011, the growth rate of Chinas vegetable export trade has dropped dramatically, and even the total trade volume has dropped dramatically in 2012, which has attracted more
11、 attention.What factors and ways affect the trade flow of Chinese vegetable and agricultural products? How to improve the competitive advantage of Chinese vegetable and agricultural products? Under the increasingly fierce competition of international vegetable and agricultural products market, how s
12、hould China develop its comparative advantage, resist the risks from international markets and safeguard its own interests as far as possible on the basis of mutual benefit? It will become a topic of urgent concern. In this paper, the gravitational model is used for empirical analysis to provide mor
13、e possibilities for reference.1.1.2 Research SignificanceIn recent years, with the continuous growth of population and the acceleration of urbanization, the per capita cultivated land area has decreased year by year, and the trade pattern of vegetable and agricultural products in China has also unde
14、rgone tremendous changes. As an agricultural and populous country, how to organize the import and export trade of vegetable and agricultural products as a whole, give full play to the comparative advantages of Chinese vegetable and agricultural products, and improve the competitiveness of Chinese ve
15、getable and agricultural products export, has a far-reaching impact on improving farmersincome level, promoting the export of vegetable and agricultural products and increasing the diversity of commodities in the international market. In this paper, the current situation of Chinas export trade of ve
16、getable and agricultural products since 2005 is taken as the research object. The factors affecting the trade flow of vegetable and agricultural products are regarded as the main content of the study, and the gravity model is used as the main method to carry out the analysis.Nowadays, Chinas develop
17、ment has attracted worldwide attention, and more and more scholars have begun to pay attention to Chinas agricultural trade issues, using gravity model and other means to study Chinas agricultural trade flows, and according to the corresponding influencing factors, make suggestions for Chinas trade
18、policy and the future development prospects of agricultural products. However, due to Chinas large territory and its trading partners all over the world, the statistics of agricultural products are different, and different scholars often choose different objects and variables to get different result
19、s. Therefore, it is of great significance in theory and practice to provide policy recommendations for the development of Chinas agricultural trade from different dimensions. It is of great significance to adjust Chinas existing trade policies, actively respond to changes in the international market
20、, improve export competitiveness and promote Chinas agricultural development by absorbing and adopting guidance and suggestions from different aspects.Research Background1.2Research IdeasResearch ideasSignificance and InnovationResearch on Trade Gravity ModelJournals reviewedInfluencing Factors of T
21、rade FlowAnalysis of Influencing FactorsTheoretical analysisCONCLUSIONS AND POLICY SUGGESTIONSEmpirical Study Based on Gravity Model1-1 Research Thinking Framework1.3 Possible Innovations and DeficienciesBased on the export trade of vegetable agricultural products and gravity model, this paper adds
22、population, arable land area, exchange rate and other factors to carry out empirical research. At the same time, the research content is more detailed, which is more conducive to putting forward targeted policy recommendations. In addition, this paper uses panel data from 2005 to 2016 to study count
23、ries all over the world, and the level of national development varies. It fully guarantees the diversity and timeliness of samples, which has practical significance for the future development of Chinas vegetable and agricultural export trade.Because the per capita arable land area in 2017 can not be
24、 obtained, the empirical research data only until 2016, to a certain extent, did not get the latest research results. In addition, due to the lack of research on export trade of vegetable agricultural products and the limited literature available before, there are not comprehensive problems in the d
25、iscussion of related issues, which is the shortage of this article.2. Journals reviewed2.1 Research on the Influencing Factors of Trade FlowJason and Dayton (2005) analyzed the relationship between agricultural products and regional economic organizations based on gravity model, EU, NAFTA, CER and o
26、ther eight economic organizations. Through empirical research, it is found that bilateral trade flows have increased with the promotion of regional economic organizations. At the same time, Scott L. Baier C (2005) believes that trade policy is closely related to bilateral trade. By selecting panel d
27、ata from 1990 to 2006, this paper explores the impact of free trade agreements as an endogenous variable on bilateral trade. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the two and conclude that bilateral trade flows will double in the 10 years after the signing of the
28、FTA. Jaime E. Malaga, etal. (2006) In the course of studying bilateral trade between the United States and Mexico, five kinds of vegetables, which account for 80% of the total vegetable trade between the two countries, were collected and sorted out. The exchange rate, real salary growth level, veget
29、able production technology level and whether to sign the North American Free Trade Agreement between the United States and Mexico were studied and concluded by gravity model. The impact of bilateral vegetable trade is greater than that of trade system. Assem Abu Hahab et al. (2014) used the panel mo
30、del from 1994 to 2008 to analyze the influencing factors of Egyptian agricultural trade through gravitational model. The results show that although the total export volume of Egypt is negatively correlated with the GDP growth of Egypt, every 1% increase in GDP will increase the export volume of agri
31、cultural products by 5.42%. This is due to the increase in domestic demand stimulated by the growth of total economic volume, and at the same time, the devaluation of Egyptian national currency is beneficial to the export trade of agricultural products compared with the devaluation of the currency o
32、f the exporting countries.At present, many scholars in China regard the study of trade flows between China and other countries as a research topic. Luo Liangwen and Ban University (2011) found in the empirical study that cultural differences have a significant positive correlation with Chinas trade
33、flows, while the square of the explanatory variable is negatively correlated with Chinas trade flows. Yao Mingyue (2014) analyzed the impact of inter-port route distance on Chinas trade. By collecting panel data of countries and European countries, it was found that opening the Northeast Route would
34、 greatly promote the development of Sino-European trade. Wang Yong, Yuan Qigang, Zhu Xuechang and Li Xiaoliang (2015) added financial development indicators as new explanatory variables into the expanded gravitational model to analyze Chinas export trade potential to other countries from two dimensi
35、ons of total trade and different industries.。2.2 Study on the Influencing Factors of Chinas Agricultural Trade FlowAccording to the choice of different explanatory variables and research objects, the results of each scholars research are also different. Shen Haicheng and Zeng Guoping (2008) used gra
36、vity model to add regional organizations such as APEC as dummy variables, increase exchange rate explanatory variables, and analyze Chinas agricultural import and export trade flows. The results show that dummy variables such as regional organizations have a positive effect on Chinas agricultural tr
37、ade flows, while factors such as exchange rate and distance hinder them. Obstacles, while the impact of economic and population size is not significant. Liu Lu and Li Huihui (2008) selected panel data from 2000 to 2005, and based on the gravity model, analyzed the influence factors of agricultural t
38、rade between China and ASEAN, and found that bilateral trade flows had less impact on per capita GDP, compared with GDP, which had a higher impact; at the same time, distance and early harvest calculation. There is a negative correlation between trade volume and GDP per capita, while there is a posi
39、tive correlation between the two countries. Dong Guicai (2009) collected panel data in 2006 based on gravity model. Taking 30 countries and regions as subjects, he studied Chinas foreign trade in agricultural products. It was found that the explanatory variable of Chinas agricultural trade flow and
40、per capita cultivated land area of traders was not significant. Zhang Haisen and Xie Jie (2011) found that although distance is an obstacle, there is still much room for trade between China and Africa to rise, which is attributed to the promotion of bilateral trade in terms of economic scale, total
41、population and market demand. Wang Liping and Wang Rui (2012) selected 17 major agricultural products countries that trade with China. After Chinas accession to the WTO, the total trade rose sharply and accompanied by the emergence of a trade deficit. It is pointed out that the distance between the
42、two countries, the national income gap and the outbreak of financial crisis have a negative impact on the flow of agricultural trade, while the size of national economy, the number of population and whether or not China joins WTO have a positive impact on it.With the continuous progress of urbanizat
43、ion in China, the per capita arable land area has decreased from 0.094 hectares in 2000 to 0.077 hectares in 2014. Although it rebounded to 0.087 hectares in 2015, it is still far below the world average of 0.194 hectares. How to balance the process of urbanization with the basic livelihood security
44、 of the people will also receive more and more attention. How China will make use of its existing land, make use of modern science and technology to meet domestic demand, and at the same time develop its comparative advantage to develop export trade is also worth further discussion.2.3 Research on T
45、rade Gravity ModelGravitation model is different from the development of general theory. It is named for its similar form to Newtons formula of gravitation. The concept of gravitational model originated from Newtons law of gravitation in physics, that is, between two objects, the size of gravitation
46、 is inversely proportional to the distance between two objects, but directly proportional to the size of mass. In trade research, Tinbergen (1962) first used gravity model. He found that the size of trade flows between two trading countries is positively related to the economic scale of the two coun
47、tries, but inversely related to the distance between the two countries. In the 1960s, gravitational models were further developed. Bergstand (1989) replaced population size with per capita income on the basis of previous scholarsresearch, making the gravity model more perfect. Deardorff (1995) deduc
48、ed the H-O model of international trade theory, and deduced the gravitational model with strong operability. These theories provide strong theoretical support for the gravitational model of trade, and help to solve the long-term lack of theoretical support for the discussion of gravitational model.
49、Nowadays, although the gravity model has not been perfectly explained, it still has a strong application in bilateral trade impact analysis.Compared with Western scholars, Chinese scholars mostly choose the most influential factors among different trading bodies for empirical analysis according to the characteristics of gravity model or research object, and the theory of gravity model itself has less expansion. Jin Zhesong (2000) selected the