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1、IpsosNovember 2018Black Friday:Shifting its centre of gravityy Tim DenisonGAME CHANGERSIn 2018, Black Friday falls on 23rd November, the earliest since 2012. Tim Denison takes us on a tour of the history of this prominent date in the retail calendar, identifies some successes (and failures) along th
2、e way, and offers some thoughts as to what the next few years might bring.Black Friday: its heritageFrom humble beginnings in Philadelphia some 50 years ago/BlackFridayhasbecomeaglobalretailphenomenon thanks largely to the internet and the media. The Sales extravaganza was originally conceived as a
3、one-day bargain bonanza in shops, to be held on the day after Thanksgiving Day in America, designed to kick-start the Christmas shopping season.In actual fact, it only became a national US fixture in the 1990s and only surpassed the Saturday before Christmas Day as the busiest shopping day of the ye
4、ar there in 2005. But since then it hasnt looked back. In 2011 Walmart controversially opened its stores on the evening of Thanksgiving Day, breaking the midnight curfew for the first time. Today it is no longer a 24-hour national sprint, but a multi-day international marathon loved by the media awe
5、struck by the speed and spread of its advance. Black Friday is no longer a store-based event with Cyber Monday now following on its tail as its online counter-part. Such is the omni-channel nature of retailing today that the promotional period has melded into one.Black Friday is no longer a store-ba
6、sed event with Cyber Monday following on its tail as its online counter-part.Stepping outBlack Friday found its way across its first country border in 2009, with American retailers launching it in Canada, despite their own Thanksgiving Day being held a month earlier than in the United States. That s
7、ame crusading approach has served American retailers very well since. In 2010 Amazon introduced it to the UK. The following year the likes of Apple, J Crew and Bloomingdales took it into Australia. And in 2014 Macys and American Apparel Inc took up the pioneering challenge in China via Alipay.Americ
8、an retailers had learnt quickly that they could benefit from introducing the event in markets in which they had no physical presence. It just required a viable online channel and competitive shipping rates. The global march continued into2015. Then, e-Bay gotthe“Black” ball rolling in India, despite
9、 the fact that the festive season of Diwali is already over by the end of November. Over the years it has morphed from being purely a bricks-and-mortar occasion, to an omni-channel one.Retailers in their home territories have generally joined the action when the Americans have led it, but in other c
10、ountries they have taken the initiative first. A group of Russian and Austrian entrepreneurs were the first to bring Black Friday into Russia, attracting hundreds of prominent online retailers to take part in their promotional *000 Black Friday5 website. In 2013 a weather white-out accompanied e-tai
11、ler CDON5s introduction of Black Friday into Sweden. In 2014 the domestic grocery retailer, Checkers, initiated South African shoppers to the world of Black Friday.It is now a global phenomenon. From Spain to Senegal, from Israelto Iceland, shoppers aroundtheglobe nowenjoy the November bargain-fest.
12、 In 2017 global sales onthe day were 6 times greater than a regular Friday, according to Black Friday Global, headed by shoppers in Pakistan who spent in excess of 100 times as much. By comparison, US shoppers spent 20 times theirtypical Friday expenses and British shoppers 15 times as much.However,
13、 it is not a total whitewash. The jury is out in countries where discounting is heavily regulated, such as France. There, footfall on “Le Black Friday”fell by 16.1 % last year compared to the year before.Black Friday: A timeline1960s: Term first used in Philadelphia, in the wake of the post-Thanksgi
14、ving traffic jams1980s: Black Friday is used to describe the point in the year when the retailers start to make a profit1990s: By this time, its a national fixture in the United States2005: Black Friday overtakes the Saturday before Christmas Day as the busiest shopping day of the year in the US2009
15、: American retailers export the concept over the border to CanadaBlack Friday comes to the UK2010: Australia joins the partyUnscrupulous e-tailers offer phony sales in Brazil2011: Online entrepreneurs launch Black Friday in RussiaScuffles break out in UK stores as shoppers rush to take advantage2014
16、: Checkers introduces Black Friday in South Africa2014: Black Friday loses its place as busiest US shopping day of the year - a trend which continued in 20152012: eBay introduces Black Friday to IndiaFirst time Black Friday takings in the US from mobile devices exceeded $lbn on a single day2016: Ali
17、babas Singles7 Day knocks Black Friday off the perch as the worlds most popular promotional event.2017/18: Amazon Prime Day 2018 outstripped Amazon sales between Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2017A great American export?There are many great things to have come out of America, but is Black Friday one
18、 ofthem?Most shoppers will invariably be advocates, enjoying the opportunity to buy sought-after goods at knockdown prices. Whetherthey are for Christmas gifts orfortheirown consumption, everyonelovesabargain.Yetwehaveseena darker side to Black Friday. Thousands of households were defrauded by unscr
19、upulous e-tailers in Brazil offering phony sales on “Black Fraud Day，2012. Inthe UK, bedlam broke out in stores across the country as overzealous shoppers fought for prized booty on the infamous uBlack and Blue Friday” in 2014.For retailers, the event has its disciples and its critics. Some argue th
20、at Black Friday does little more than pull forward festive sales and threaten margins rather than grow the size and value of the whole cake. They argue that it risks undermining consumers5 willingness to pay full prices, just when they are gearing up to loosen their purse-strings for a Christmassplu
21、rge. Richpickingsforshoppers patently can come at a cost for retailers.Others see Black Friday as a potent tool to boost seasonal sales artificially, with the potential to also grab market share from competitors. They argue that consumers have really connected with the concept of Black Friday and so
22、, played correctly, it can make a significant contribution to a retailers coffers.Whatever their perspective, it is generally acknowledged by retailers that Black Friday, once introduced into a market, soon becomes an established fixture in their promotions5 calendar, and w川 remain so at least for t
23、he short term. As John Lewis5 MD Andy Street put it in January 2015 I dont think we can put the genie back in the bottle.nEl Buen FinDescripcion GraficaInspired by Black Friday, Mexicos El Buen Fin (The Good Weekend) takes place in mid-November, to coincide with the national holiday commemorating th
24、e Mexican RevolutionBlack Friday has become a global retail phenomenon in less than 10years and sales continue to grow year-on-year.Five steps to successEvery year there are new lessons to be learnt from Black Friday. Getting it wrong can have serious consequences for a retailer, given its size and
25、its profile with the media. Our top five steps to a successful campaign are as follows:1 . When it comes to Black Friday, there is no such thing as over-planning. Determine well in advance what to promote, when to promote and how to deliver in a proactive, managed way. And work hand-in-hand with sup
26、pliers to avoid nasty surprises and knee-jerk reactions.2 Agility is key. Black Friday is a disruptive event where demand is impossible to predict. Social media has the capability to spread news (good or bad) with alarming speed. It can mobilise the shopping masses to descend on the best offers like
27、 plagues of locusts sweeping through fields of crops.3 Manage shopper numbers entering stores. Overcrowding invariably damages the customer experience and risks grabbing the news headlines for all the wrong reasons.4 Stress-test logistics, capacity and end-to-end execution. The short window of heavy
28、 discounting can create unprecedented demand and all too easily overwhelm the normal running of operations. As online shopping has an intrinsically more important contribution to make to Black Friday ifs notjust building headroom into stock, fulfilment and payments facilities, but resilience and cap
29、acity into website search and content services.5 Prepare to put crisis management into practice. Operational failures and brutal media exposure can risk damaging reputations ifthey are not dealt with speedily and effectively.Survive or prosper? Its evolution in the USABlackFridayhasbecomeaglobal ret
30、ailphenomenon in less than 10 years. In most markets Black Friday sales continue to grow year-on-year as its reputation with consumers and its participation among retailers become stronger.However, the story is very different in its country of origin, the United States. There, Black Friday relinquis
31、hed its title as the busiest shopping day of the year in 2014 and receded further in 2015. It is no longerthe centre of gravity for sales in the holiday season.There are a number of good reasons as to why Black Friday is losing its relevance in its home country: Thesingledayevent,asoriginally concei
32、ved, has bled into a multi-dayonez which has taken the edge off the special excitement it used to generate. Its demise arguably began when retailerspulleditforwardto begin on Thanksgiving Day. The likes of Mac/s continue to open its doors from 5pm, after the turkey has disappeared, but retailers are
33、 increasingly questioning the wisdom of doing so. This year over 100 national and regional retailers, including CostCo, Home Depot, Lowes Nordstrom and TJX will not be opening their shop doors on Turkey Day”. They all express their family-oriented values as the prime reason for staying shut. Typical
34、 of the sentiments expressed is this from CostCo: uAs an appreciation of all the hard work our employees do over the course of the year, we have always closed on Thanksgiving to give our employees a chance to relax and enjoy time with their families.55 This viewpoint appears to be in line with the A
35、merican people, of whom only a quarter favour stores opening on Thanksgiving Day. Black Frida/s inevitable transformation into an omnichannel eventhasdiluted its physical presence and its sense of theatre and occasion. Everyday promotions and the rise of the discounters have robbed Black Friday deal
36、s of their exclusivityThe allure of Amazon5s Prime Day, targeting relevant offers to its most valued customers, directly and personally, is gaining resonance and appeal compared to the blunderbuss mass-market approach of BlackFriday. Despite suffering a webs计e crash early in the day, Amazons sales d
37、uring Prime Day 20185s 36-hour extravaganza exceeded those between Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2017. Some leading brands, such as Apple, have begun to turn their backs on Black Friday store promotions. Ifthis trend gains momentum, it will have a huge impact on the lasting popularity of the day.The
38、 future of Black Friday1 尸“ 1:RI DABLACKIn order to be sustainable, Black Friday must become an event that is healthier for retailers rather than bigger for consumers. By extending the duration of the event from one day to four, then five, and now-in some cases- ten, retailers are playing into the h
39、ands of the likes of Amazon, making it a race to the bottom by slashing prices and diluting margins. It isestimatedthatdiscounts across global markets reached 55% in last year5s event. Extending the event longer only serves to intensify the pain for retailers tasked with delivering a profit each yea
40、r.Retailers need to wake up to the fact that Amazons business model is different to their own, and so they should not try to compete in the same way. Interestingly Amazon increased their Prime membership fee by 20% this year, with seemingly little resistance from its clientele. It also reportedlyadd
41、edtensofmillionsof Prime members globally to its platform over the Prime Day period.Value growth has to feature in the future of Black Friday. This means taking a more nuanced approach, looking to discount limited lines and targeted reductions while enticing customers to explore the fuller range. Am
42、azon has signposted how it has learned from the ills of Black Friday and now presents an evolved approach to its Prime Day“ event: offering the best and most relevant deals to itsThere is little or no incentive for retailers to make greater efforts if they are purely diluting margins without expandi
43、ng sales.Prime customers directly and personally. It aims to deliver everything that its customers cherish: offers that people engage with, didnt know they needed and are tempted by, unrepeatable value and a pain-free shopping experience. This year on Prime Day it expanded its private label offering
44、, broadened its categories on promotion and offered lower prices than Black Friday 2017 - all of which provide a clear signpost of its plans for Black Friday 2018.To survive it must become a smooth and sophisticated showcase event that demonstrates the best of a retailers omni-channel capabilities t
45、o enrapture shoppers and provide well-founded reasons to spend in November - without diminishing the gifting appetite over the rest of the festive period. Perhaps this is the means of differentiation: the Black Friday event is targeted at spending on oneself, as opposed to the festive campaign where
46、 the spirit of shopping is directed towards buying for others. UPTO卷卷E32017 vs20f6J XT 二7,，口 -3.5% +0.9% +10.23 -2.1% -1.7% -16.1%Source: Ipsos Retail PerformanceEvery year there is evidence of its evolution. Mirroring the purchasing behaviour of shoppers, it is as much an online event as an in-stor
47、e one now. In the UK last year 24% of people surveyed by Black Friday Global said that they shopped exclusively in store fortheir Black Friday bargains.This year that proportion is expected to halve. Some 64% of shoppers say they will go online as well as in-store this year. So further evolution is
48、a necessity.Nothing in retailing is guaranteed for long. The rise and rise of Singles5 Day, Alibabas promotional escapade, is already 4 times bigger than Black Friday weekend. Last year it topped $25bn of sales, smashing previous records for the worlds largest retail event. It teamed with offers tha
49、t were innovative and novel. 33 shoppers had the opportunity to buy a lifetime supply of baijiu - a Chinese spirit - for just 1,111 yuan, a price symbolic of the date of Singles5 Day (11th November). It has become more than simply a retail event with its showbiz gala launch, cleverly re-positioning it away from discounting towards celebration and a reason to spend.Retailing is a fast moving, highly