《北美航空与交通运输业：全球贸易更新.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《北美航空与交通运输业：全球贸易更新.docx（116页珍藏版）》请在taowenge.com淘文阁网|工程机械CAD图纸|机械工程制图|CAD装配图下载|SolidWorks_CaTia_CAD_UG_PROE_设计图分享下载上搜索。
1、CORE一工。SEOodL &ONI90-O SBQ爱 一工。Z 寸rON Z.ZO Z.T8s Total US Import Growth China GrowthSource: US Census; Barclays ResearchFIGURE 16. Global Import Levels of Third Round Goods Also Appear to Be Increasingsepc-18 Aug18 c_-18 crh -18May.18 API-18 Mac -18 Feb. .18 Jam -18 sept.18 Aug -18CL -18 crh -18May.
2、18 Apr.18 Mac -18 Feb.18 Jam -18 sept.18 Aug，-18 3_ -18 crL -18Mas -18Apr，-18Mar. -18Feb.18Jan -18sepr-18Aug。18cL-18Jurr -18May.18 Apr,18 Mac -18 FeF-18Source: US Census; Barclays Research126 November 2018Barclays | North America Airline&TransportationThe next section is provided by Ryan Preclaw, wi
3、th Barclays Investment Sciences team.The Inverse Relationship Between Price and Volume Appears to Remain Statistically SignificantWhat can thefirst round of China tariffs tell us about what is likely to happen as the larger set of tariffs starts to take hold?To geta clear idea, we condensed the list
4、 of commodities to make the evaluation more straightforward. We filtered the data to only include imports from China to the US and then further restricted it to commodities that had at least some trade volume in every month since May of 2016We looked at changes in volumes (by weight) for airand vess
5、el-carried cargo at the 8-digit HS code level. We split commodities between those that were affected by the first round of tariffs and those that werent. Figure 17 shows the median growth among each ofthose categories. Our observations include: The flows of commodities covered by the Round 1 tariffs
6、 were actually growing a bit more robustly than the others, priorto the tariff announcement. As weve seen in the past, there was a small spike in volumes before the tariffs went into effect, consistent with importers and exporters stuffing more volume into the channel ahead of the new rules. Volumes
7、 fell in the months after the implementation, swinging from median yoy growth in the 10-20% range before the tariffs to -23% yoy in September.FIGURE 17Volumes of CommoditiesSubjectto the Round 1 Tariffs (Implement in July 2018) HaveStarted to Fall Year Over Year, Even as Other Commodities Saw Growth-23%NoRound IT