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1、Ericsson Mobility ReportJune mobility-reportEricsson Mobility Report | June 20222IntroductionLetter from the publisherResilient networks are the foundation for continued digitalization of societies and industries. Continuous network modernization and coverage build-out has led to several hundred mil
2、lion people becoming new mobile broadband subscribers every year. 5G is scaling faster than any previous mobile generation and we expect 5G subscriptions to reach 1 billion by the end of 2022. In several regions, deployment of 5G standalone networks is also picking up pace, as communications service
3、 providers prepare for innovation to address the business opportunities beyond enhanced mobile broadband. A solid digital network infrastructure underpins enterprises digital transformation plans, and their new capabilities can be turned into new customer services. As exemplified in this edition, se
4、rvice providers are looking to expand out of pure connectivity into service enablement platforms.At the crossroads of changeContentsExecutive Editor: Peter JonssonProject Manager: Anette Lundvall Forecasts: Richard MllerWriter Editors: Stephen Carson, Steven Davies Collaborators: Katja Kalliorinne (
5、Telia), Staffan Thorsell (Telia), Amith Maharaj (MTN Group),Emmanuel Lartey (MTN Group),Farhan Khan (MTN Group) Contributors: Harald Baur, Greger Blennerud, Fredrik Burstedt, Warren Chaisatien, Mikko Karikyt, Anna-Maria Kstedt, Per Lindberg, Michael Martinsson, Rhys Hemi Mataira, Leena Mattila, Amar
6、deep Mehta, Frank Mller, Ravi Shekhar Pandey, Lars SandstrmGlobal mobile network data traffic has doubled in the last two years, driven by continuing growth in smartphone usage, mobile broadband and now the digitalization of societies and industries. But traffic is not the only thing that grows. The
7、 ongoing war in Europe, as well as increased geopolitical tension in the world, leads to a range of global threats economic as well as social that must be navigated. And in our field of networking, the threat landscape calls for constant diligence in keeping ahead with security. You can read more ab
8、out security in this edition.Managing the continued strong traffic growth while reducing energy consumption is also a top priority. Older technologies are being replaced by continuous build-out of 4G and 5G networks, substantially improving network performance and energy efficiency with each generat
9、ion. 5G technologies play a key role in modernization, providing multiples of capacity while becoming more energy efficient. Innovative network technologies enable service providers to introduce new services that in turn support societies and enterprises to reduce their carbon emission footprint. In
10、 this edition, we share some examples of how 4G and 5G technologies make it possible to unleash the power of IoT connectivity to enhance both enterprises business performance and sustainability. We hope you find the report engaging and useful!Fredrik Jejdling Executive Vice President and Head of Bus
11、iness Area NetworksForecastsArticles04 5G mobile subscriptions to surpass 1 billion in 202206 Region-specific factors impact subscription adoption patterns08 Indias 5G future: A closer look10 Over 100 million FWA connections in 202212 Mid-tier smartphones take 5G into the mainstream13 Massive IoT sh
12、ows strong growth in 202114 Enhanced communication services from VoLTE to VoNR15 Mobile network traffic doubled in last two years16 5G share of mobile data traffic growing18 5G offerings picking up speed20 5G SA deployment: Moving beyond eMBB22 One-quarter of the worlds population now covered by 5G2
13、4 Unleashing the power of IoT connectivity27 The evolution of MTNs connectivity platform30 Enabling demanding use cases with CSP edge computing 33 Securing 5G networks in an evolving threat landscape36 Methodology37 Glossary38 Global and regional key figures3Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2022Forec
14、astsForecastsTaking a wide view, subscription and traffic trends are following the expected patterns in our forecasts 5G and the associated new technologies are trending upwards, as older generations begin to slow or decline. If we go down a layer, differences between the regions and countries becom
15、e clear due to their unique circumstances. For example, while 5G dominates the stories in our forecasts, its also notable that earlier-generation technologies still play an important role in closing the digital divide in many regions, by connecting the unconnected.5G mobile subscriptions will surpas
16、s 1 billion in 2022. 1bnThe monthly average usage per smartphone is expected to pass 15GB in 2022. 15GBOver 100 million FWA connections are forecast by the end of 2022. 100mOver 20 service providers had launched public 5G standalone networks by the end of 2021, and this number is expected to double
17、in 2022. 2x4Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2022Forecasts5G mobile subscriptions to surpass 1 billion in 2022 By the end of 2027, 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 4.4 billion.Service providers continue to switch on 5G and more than 210 have launched commercial 5G services globally.1 Deployment
18、 of 5G standalone (SA) networks is also increasing, with more than 20 commercial launches at the end of 2021. The most common 5G services that service providers have launched for consumers are enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB), fixed wireless access (FWA), gaming and AR/VR-based services. When it com
19、es to 5G offerings for enterprises, the most common segments targeted are manufacturing (smart factories), transport, smart cities and ports.A weaker global economy and the uncertainties caused by Russias invasion of Ukraine have impacted our global estimate for 2022 by around 100 million, and the f
20、orecast has been adjusted accordingly. faster than for 4G, as well as Chinas large, early 5G deployments. 5G will become the dominant mobile access technology by subscriptions in 2027. Subscriptions for 4G continue to increase, growing by 70 million during the quarter to around to 4.9 billion. The t
21、echnology is now projected to peak at 5 billion this year, then decline to around 3.5 billion by the end of 2027 as subscribers migrate to 5G. 3G subscriptions declined by 49 million, while GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions dropped by 59 million during the quarter and other technologies3 decreased by abou
22、t 5 million.During the quarter, China had the most net additions (+16 million), followed by the US (+4 million) and Bangladesh (+3 million).Strong 5G subscription growth5G subscriptions2 grew by 70 million during the first quarter to around 620 million, and that number is expected to surpass 1 billi
23、on by the end of this year. Currently, North America and North East Asia have the highest 5G subscription penetration, followed by the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Western Europe. In 2027, it is projected that North America will have the highest 5G penetration at 90 percent.By the end of 2
24、027, we forecast 4.4 billion 5G subscriptions globally, accounting for 48 percent of all mobile subscriptions. 5G subscription uptake is faster than that of 4G following its launch in 2009, reaching 1 billion subscriptions 2 years sooner than 4G did. Key factors include the timely availability of de
25、vices from several vendors, with prices falling Figure 1: Mobile subscriptions by technology (billion)1 GSA (May 2022). 2 A 5G subscription is counted as such when associated with a device that supports New Radio (NR), as specified in 3GPP Release 15, and is connected to a 5G-enabled network. 3 Main
26、ly CDMA2000 EVDO, TD-SCDMA and Mobile WiMAX. 5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 4.4 billion in 2027. 4.4bn1073962845120162019202220252017202020232026201820212024202705GLTE (4G)WCDMA/HSPA (3G)GSM/EDGE-only (2G)TD-SCDMA (3G)CDMA-only (2G/3G)8.2billion9.1billion5Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2022
27、ForecastsMobile broadband dominates mobile subscriptions At the end of 2021, there were around 8.2 billion mobile subscriptions, and we project this figure will increase to around 9.1 billion by the end of 2027. During the same time, the share of mobile broadband subscriptions will increase from 84
28、to 93 percent. The number of unique mobile subscribers is projected to grow from 6.1 billion at the end of 2021 to 6.7 billion by the end of the forecast period. Subscriptions associated with smartphones continue to rise. At the end of 2021 there were 6.3 billion, accounting for about 77 percent of
29、all mobile phone subscriptions. This is forecast to reach 7.8 billion in 2027, accounting for around 87 percent of all mobile subscriptions at that time.Subscriptions for fixed broadband are expected to grow around 4 percent annually through 2027.4 FWA connections are anticipated to show strong grow
30、th of 17 percent annually through 2027. Subscriptions for mobile PCs and tablets are expected to show moderate growth, reaching around 540 million in 2027. Figure 3: Subscriptions and subscribers (billion)Figure 2: Comparison of 5G and 4G subscription uptake in the first years of deployment (billion
31、)4 The number of fixed broadband users is at least three times the number of fixed broadband connections due to shared subscriptions in households, enterprises and public access spots. It is the opposite for mobile phones, where subscription numbers exceed user numbers.4.51093.571.534.083.061.022.04
32、2.550.5100Mobile subscriptionsMobile broadband subscriptionsSmartphone subscriptionsMobile subscribersFixed broadband subscriptionsMobile PC and tablet subscriptions5G (20182027)4G (20092018)5G subscription uptake is faster than for 4G.02016202020242018202220262017202120252019202320274Years since fi
33、rst deployment261537896Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2022ForecastsRegion-specific factors impact subscription adoption patternsNorth America and North East Asia regions reached similar 5G subscription penetration in 2021.Sub-Saharan Africa Demand for mobile voice and data services continues to gro
34、w in the region. Investment in telecom infrastructure accelerated during 20202021 in the wake of COVID-19, including mobile coverage and fixed wireless access (FWA) build-out, enabling service providers to address additional subscriber segments with mobile broadband. In 2021, the number of 4G subscr
35、iptions grew by 26 percent, and strong growth is expected to continue during 2022. Migration towards 4G devices continues to be an important driver for 4G subscription uptake, which in turn drives the growth of mobile data traffic. 3G mobile data traffic is still increasing, but the majority of traf
36、fic growth is expected to be in 4G. Over the forecast period, total mobile broadband2 subscriptions are predicted to increase, reaching 78 percent of mobile subscriptions.10 million in 2021, and the region is forecast to reach nearly 200 million 5G subscriptions in 2027.Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC
37、) In the GCC countries that are major travel destinations, tourism has begun to return to pre-pandemic levels, giving rise to seasonal, mostly pre-paid mobile subscriptions. 5G saw strong growth in 2021, adding 5 million subscriptions, while 4G grew by less than 1 million subscriptions. From 2022 on
38、wards, 5G will be the only growing subscription type. It is expected to reach over 65 million, representing 80 percent of total subscriptions in 2027. Monetization through growing both traditional and IoT mobile connections remains a key short-term priority for service providers.Regulatory initiativ
39、es are being taken to make more spectrum available in key markets across Africa. This will enable access to mobile services for a larger part of the population, especially in rural areas that have traditionally been underserved.Middle East and North Africa Mobile subscription growth in the region is
40、 predominantly driven by the uptake of 4G services in less mature markets. In 2021, 4G subscriptions increased by about 54 million, while 2G and 3G declined. Digitalization is a high priority in some countries as a means for transforming economies and societies. Service providers are motivated to un
41、dertake extensive network modernization and expansion to improve network performance, which stimulates further subscription growth. 5G subscriptions grew to around 1 All Middle East and North Africa figures include GCC countries. 2 Mobile broadband includes radio access technologies HSPA (3G), LTE (
42、4G), 5G, CDMA2000 EV-DO, TD-SCDMA and Mobile WiMAX.Figure 4: Mobile subscriptions by region and technology (percent) India, Nepal and BhutanSub-Saharan AfricaMiddle East and North Africa1Central andEastern EuropeLatin AmericaSouth East Asia and OceaniaNorth East AsiaGulf Cooperation CouncilWestern E
43、uropeNorth America202120275GLTE (4G)WCDMA/HSPA (3G)GSM/EDGE-only (2G)TD-SCDMA (3G)CDMA-only (2G/3G)20212027202120272021202720212027202120272021202720212027202120272021202719%10%37%36%23%61%68%39%55%27%66%24%50%48%46%19%75%74%9%6%80%80%82%20%90%9%74%17%80%15%24%47%37%35%33%63%32%28%53%43%7Ericsson Mo
44、bility Report | June 2022ForecastsAnother focus is extracting value from network investments through partnerships with regulators, solution providers, and vendors. Service providers are also exploring new types of service offerings, for example at mega-events such as the 2022 international football
45、tournament in Qatar.GCC service providers are targeting a range of services beyond mobile broadband to monetize 5G, including IoT, financial services, video services and cloud gaming. All these have the potential to increase mobile subscriptions, data consumption and service revenues. As demand for
46、high-speed connectivity increases, FWA will also drive growth in broadband subscriptions. Demand for dedicated networks is also expected to grow as 5G use cases emerge.Central and Eastern Europe Technology adoption and subscription uptake are typically slower in this region than in Western Europe. T
47、his is due in part to slower spectrum allocation processes, as well as consumers being reluctant to upgrade to more expensive subscriptions. 4G is the dominant technology, accounting for 61 percent of all subscriptions at the end of 2021. Mobile subscription growth has flattened, and is expected to
48、be virtually zero in the coming years. However, migration from 2G/3G to 4G continues to look strong up to 2024, from which time 5G is expected to add the most subscriptions. During the forecast period, there will continue to be a significant decline in 3G subscriptions, from 32 percent of mobile sub
49、scriptions to 3 percent. Latin America 4G is currently the dominant radio access technology in the region, accounting for two-thirds of all subscriptions at the end of 2021. 4G subscription growth is strong, with more than 70 million added in 2021, and growth is expected to continue during 2022. How
50、ever, 3G subscriptions are steeply declining as users migrate to 4G and 5G. Many service providers will sunset 3G networks in the next two years to enable the reuse of valuable radio spectrum for 4G deployments. Commercial 5G has been launched in seven countries, and trials are ongoing in six other