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1、02外盘豆类资料0304050607080911/12 Argentine Crop Economics01011/12 Argentine Crop Margins (Owned Land)01111/12 Argentine Crop Margins (Rented Land)012Argentine Storage Capacity Increased Use of Silo Bags013Brazilian Balance Sheet01411/12 Brazilian Production01511/12 Brazilian Crop Economics016Brazilian Cr
2、ushCrush Share by State017Brazilian Biodiesel018Inland Freight Santos/TubaraoContinued strength in the real, expansion of MT crush and rapid increases of interior freight (rail/truck) to Santos/Tubarao will lead to a reduction in availability of MT beans.Will create more competition for exports from
3、 the south (PGUA & RGDE) & the north (Aratu & PDM).019CBOT in USD & REAIS3/7/2008 - 13/12/2010 (GMT)Line; QSc1; Trade Price(Last)29/10/2010; 20,851Line; QSc1; Trade Price(Last)29/10/2010; 1226PriceBRLBsh.1231616,51717,51818,51919,52020,52121,52222,52323,52424,52525,5PriceUScBsh1/88008408809209601000
4、10401080112011601200124012801320136014001440148015201560agosetoutnovdezjanfevmarabrmaijunjulagosetoutnovdezjanfevmarabrmaijunjulagosetoutnovdezQ3 2008Q4 2008Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2009Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2010USDREAIS020Non Commercial Length vs. Prices021Monthly Bean Exports to ChinaYTD US Sales
5、 19.5mmtYTD US Shipments 9.36mmt022World Bean and Meal Demand023World Bean and Meal Demand HighlightsChina Steady expansion of crush & healthy meal incorporation into poultry and hog rations lead to a projected MEQ yoy increase of 2.5mmt.EuropeBean crush continues to increase but a return to a norma
6、lized European grain crop sees MEQ demand down 1.8mmt yoy; the reduction coming in the form of reduced meal imports.Middle East/North AfricaIncreased bean crush in Saudi Arabia, Syria & NAF as well as higher overall meal demand sees MEQ growth up 200kmt yoy (in the form of bean imports).SE Asia - Ch
7、inaNew crush capacity in Vietnam as well as steady growth in demand sees MEQ growth up 900kmt.024World Meal Equivalent Demand (Beans & Meal)025World Oil Trade026Global Dry Bulk Seaborne Trade by Cargos027Importance of Chinese Drybulk demand: Corn+Coal (high substitution potential + shift in tonmile)
8、 will take relay of Beans & Iron Ore028Yard Deliveries performing well as forward still above marginal cost Yen/USD risk thoughFewer cancellations (financing is available / market above marginal cost)More slippage particularly at cape/pmax yards (China/Korea)Watch out continuously strong contracting
9、 (2010 likely above 2008) could postpone real market recovery029Freight S & D Long Term Oversupply030Freight OutlookBleak macro outlook but no double dip OECD austerity amidst unemployment AND slowing CHINAWe discard demand crisis scenario that “breaks” the market below marginal costLack of strong m
10、ineral demand momentum beyond seasonal pre-winter restocking needsBackhaul business remains extremely scarce and has opened up recurrent full china ballast executionThis is recurrently priced in nearby carry and redundant risk of over-covering through short period fixturesMARKET IS STRUCTURALLY OVER
11、TONNAGED FOR AT LEAST 12-18 MONTHSPMAX MARKET IS RANGEBOUND (18K 24K) AND MORE INSULATED FROM CAPES WILD MOVESMARKET CYCLES ARE INCREASINGLY SHORT 2-3 DAYS PUSHESEXECUTION VOLATILITY IS GREATER THAN IN 03-08 . ON AVERAGE 2.4% DAILY MOVES ON SPOTSPOT MARKET REMAINS RANGEBOUND (15K-20K) THROUGHOUT 201
12、1:USG-NPRC $47-55 RANGE OR SANTOS-NPRC $41-48 OR UP+BB-NPRC $47-54NEARBY CURVES RECURRENTLY DEVELOPS INTO CARRY WHILE BACK END INVERSE NARROWS BUT STILL ALWAYS ABOVE SPOT MARGINAL REPLACEMENT (13K/14K FOR NEWBUILD) WHICH WILL POSTPONE MARKET RECOVER FURTHER AS WE DONT SEE MAJOR SCRAPPING CAMPAIGN AND ORDERBOOK CONTRACTING CONTINUES . DOOMED TO BE RANGEBOUNDFRONTHAUL PREMIUM WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%SMAX WILL INCREASINGLY PRICE IN PMAX BUSINESS