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1、新概念英语第四册第14课:The Butterfly EffectLesson 14 The Butterfly Effect蝴蝶效应First listen and then answer the following question.听录音，然后回答以下问题。Why do small errors make it impossible to predict the weather system with a high degree of accuracy?Beyond two or three days, the world s best weather forecasts are spe
2、culative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.世界上最好的两三天以上的天气预报具有很强的猜测性，如果超过六七天，天气预报就没有了任何价值。The Butterfly Effect is the reason. For small pieces of weather - and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards - any prediction deteriorates rapidly. Errors and uncertainties
3、multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.原因是蝴蝶效应。对于小片的恶劣天气 - 对一个全球性的气象预报员来说，“小”可以意味着雷暴雨和暴风雪 - 任何预测的质量会很快下降。错误和不可靠性上升，接踵而来的是一系列湍流的徵状，从小尘暴和暴风发展到只有卫星上可以看到的席卷整块大陆的旋涡。The modern weather models w
4、ork with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere. But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of t
5、he atmosphere. Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want. Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 1202, then 12
6、.03.现代气象模型以一个坐标图来显示，图中每个点大约是间隔60英里。既使是这样，有些开始时的资料也不得不依靠推测，因为地面工作站和卫星不可能看到地球上 的每一个地方。假设地球上可以布满传感器，每个相隔1英尺，并按1英尺的间隔从地面一直排列到大气层的顶端。再假定每个传感器都极极端准确地读出了温度、 气压、温度和气象学家需要的任何其他数据。在正午时分，一个功能巨大的计算机搜集了所有的资料，并算出在每一个点上12：01、12：02、12：03时 可能出现的情况。The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New J
7、ersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away. At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average. By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away. Soon the errors will have mu
8、ltiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.计算机无法推断出1个月以后的某一天，新泽西州的普林斯顿究竟是晴天还是雨天。正午时分，传感器之间的距离会掩盖计算机无法知道的波动、任何偏平均值的变 化。到12：01时，那些波动就已经会在1英尺远的地方造成偏差。很快这种偏差会增加到尺10英的范围，如此等等，一直到全球的范围。New words and expressions 生词和短语forecastn. 预报speculativeadj. 推测的blizzardn. 暴风雪deterioratev. 变坏m
9、ultiplyv. 增加cascadev. 瀑布似地落下turbulentadj. 狂暴的dust devil小尘暴，尘旋风squalln. 暴风eddyn. 旋涡gridn. 坐标方格sensorn. 传感器humidityn. 温度meteorologistn. 气象学家Princetonn. 普林斯顿（美国城市名）New Jerseyn. 新泽西（美国州名）fluctuationn. 起伏，波动deviationn. 偏差Notes on the text课文注释1 beyond two or three days , 超过两三天。2 of the order of , 大约。Lesso
10、n 14 课后练习和答案Exercises and Answer新概念英语第四册第20课:Snake poison Lesson 20 Snake poison蛇毒 First listen and then answer the following question. 新概念英语第四册第33课:Education Lesson 33 Education教育 First listen and then answer the following question. 听 新概念英语第四册第44课:Patterns of cultu Lesson 44 Patterns of culture文化的模式 First listen and then answer the followi 新概念英语第四册第34课:Adolescence Lesson 34 Adolescence青春期 First listen and then answer the following question. 第 6 页 共 6 页