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1、THE FUTURE OF INDUSTRIALIZATIONIN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD2022INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT REPORT THE FUTURE OF INDUSTRIALIZATIONIN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLDINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2022Copyright 2021 United Nations Industrial Development OrganizationThe designations employed and the presentation of materia
2、l in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Designations such as “developed,” “indu
3、strialized” and “developing” are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgment about the state reached by a particular country or area in the development process.The mention of firm names or commercial products does not imply endorsement by UNIDO.Material in this pub
4、lication may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgement is requested, together with a copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint.For reference and citation, please use: United Nations Industrial Development Organization, 2021. Industrial Development Report 2022. The Future o
5、f Industrialization in a Post-Pandemic World. Vienna.UNIDO ID/450 Sales Number: E.22.II.B.1 ISBN: 978-92-1-106457-5 eISBN: 978-92-1-001150-1iiiContents Page xi Foreword xiii Acknowledgements xv Technical notes and abbreviations xvi Glossary 1 Overview The future of industrialization inapost-pandemic
6、 world 2 COVID-19 and the importance of industrialization 7 Who were the most affected? 11 Why did some countries do better? 18 What can we expect for the future? 24 How can we build a better future? 30 NotesPart A The future of industrialization in a post-pandemic world 33 Chapter 1 Resilience in t
7、he time of COVID-19: The role of industry 33 Introduction 33 From epidemic to global recession and beyond 42 Mapping the crisis 53 Why did some countries do better? Factors shaping socioeconomic resilience 65 An urgent need for international policy coordination to tackle global divides 67 Notes 69 C
8、hapter 2 Dealing with the pandemic: Responses from firms and governments 69 Introduction 71 The pandemic crisis and socioeconomic resilience: Fromcountries to firms 73 Robustness: Resisting the pandemic crisis 85 Readiness: Responding and adapting to a new normal 94 Supporting resilience: An industr
9、ial policy response 101 Shaping the future of industrialization today: Capabilities and industrial policy 103 NotesivContents Page 105 Chapter 3 COVID-19 and the megatrends shaping the future of industrial development 105 Introduction 106 The pandemics stamp on the global industrial landscape 107 On
10、going megatrends of industrial development 119 Key drivers of post-pandemic industrialization 125 Industrial capabilities: Key to resilience in a post-pandemic world 126 Notes 129 Chapter 4 Building back better: The need to improve industrial policies and enhance international coordination 129 Intro
11、duction 129 Building back better: A path towards SDG-friendly industrial policies post-pandemic 140 Enhancing industrial policy coordination across national boundaries 147 A call for action to the international community 149 NotesPart B The impact of the pandemic on industrial development indicators
12、 153 Chapter 5 What statistical indicators reveal about manufacturing during the pandemic 153 A detailed look at how the global manufacturing sector weathered the COVID-19 crisis 157 Is there a link between industrial competitiveness and the severity of COVID-19 impacts? 164 Will COVID-19 lead to a
13、significant shift in statistical activities related to manufacturing? 167 NotesAnnexes 171 A.1 UNIDO COVID-19 firm-level survey 179 A.2 UNIDO COVID-19 policy-level survey 181 B Countries and economies by level of industrial competitiveness 183 C Country and economy groups 185 ReferencesvContents Pag
14、eBoxes 37 1.1 Containing the virus: The experience of the Republic of Korea 40 1.2 The global pharmaceutical industry and COVID-19 vaccines 42 1.3 Challenges for Small Island Developing States 53 1.4 Promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment in SME clusters in India 59 1.5 UNIDOs C
15、ompetitive Industrial Performance (CIP) Index 66 1.6 Building readiness capabilities: The case of the Brazilian Oswaldo Cruz Foundation 83 2.1 Advanced digital production technologies: A new technological wave transforming the industrial landscape 85 2.2 Leveraging quality standards and digital tech
16、nologies for a more inclusive industrial development: Theapplication of traceability solutions in the case of Sri Lankan spices 89 2.3 Industrial repurposing as an effective response to the COVID-19 crisis in Africa 96 2.4 Relief and support measures to tackle the COVID-19 crisis: The case of Indone
17、sia 120 3.1 Public procurement in the Republic of Korea during the COVID-19 pandemic 121 3.2 Development of a medical devices industry in Costa Rica 124 3.3 Industrial greening in the fashion industry 130 4.1 Recommendations for SDG-oriented industrial policy approaches post-pandemic 132 4.2 UNIDOs
18、COVID-19 Industrial Recovery Programme 134 4.3 Developing laboratory infrastructure: Helpingtoensure efficient, resilient and sustainable production in Colombia 135 4.4 Fostering the transition towards a sustainable and digital industrial development: The case of Turkey 139 4.5 Recommendations for g
19、endered industrial policies 143 4.6 Development finance to address economic, environmental and resilience outcomes in developing countries 144 4.7 A forum to enable industrial policy coordination among BRICS 146 4.8 Regional cooperation to fight the pandemic: TheAfrica Medical Supply Platform 147 4.
20、9 Mission Innovation to foster environmental sustainabilityFigures 2 1 Estimate of world output loss due to COVID-19 by 2021 3 2 Estimated output losses due to COVID-19 by 2021, across economy groups 4 3 Impact of COVID-19 on economic activity by 2021 and relative size of the manufacturing sector be
21、fore the pandemic, across economy groups 5 4 The role of manufacturing industries in strengthening socioeconomic resilience 6 5 From industrial production to the UN Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development 7 6 The framework: Connecting the COVID-19 outbreak to industrial production 8 7 Impact of COVI
22、D-19 on industrial production and the speed of recovery across economy groups, 2019Q42021 Q2 9 8 Typology of global industries according to the observed impact of COVID-19 and the speed of recovery, 2019 Q42021 Q2viContents Page 10 9 Impact of COVID-19 on firms: Drop in sales, profits and employment
23、 by firm category, 20192021 11 10 Elasticity of employment: The gender gap, 20192021 12 11 Country-level, sector-level and firm-level factors shaping manufacturing firms resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic 13 12 Determinants of COVID-19 impact on economic activity by 2021: The role of industrial
24、 capabilities 14 13 Determinants of COVID-19 impact on manufacturing firms: The role of industrial capabilities 15 14 Digitalization and firms robustness: Drop in sales, profits and employment by digitally advanced and non-digitally advanced firm type, 20192021 16 15 How digitalization can facilitat
25、e the introduction of response strategies to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis 17 16 Digitalization and firms readiness: Share of firms that experienced a transformational change by digitally advanced and non-digitally advanced firm type, 20202021 18 17 Most-applied policy measures to help firms deal wit
26、h the emergency, 20202021 20 18 Three megatrend shaping the future of industrial development 21 19 Digitalization among manufacturing firms due to the pandemic in selected DEIEs, by region, 2021 21 20 Diffusion of ADP technologies among manufacturing firms in selected DEIEs, byregion,2021 23 21 Manu
27、facturing firms expecting to increase post-pandemic investments in selected DEIEs, byregion, 2021 23 22 Adoption of environmentally friendly practices due to COVID-19 in selected DEIEs, by region, 2021 35 1.1 Severity of the COVID-19 pandemic and stringency of containment measures across geographica
28、l regions, January 2020September 2021 36 1.2 Estimate of world output loss due to COVID-19 by 2021 36 1.3 Estimated output losses due to COVID-19 by 2021, across economy groups 38 1.4 Level of stringency of containment measures and estimated output losses by 2021, across economy groups 39 1.5 COVID-
29、19 vaccine rollout and the lifting of containment measures, October 2021 41 1.6 Severity, stringency and economic impact: Where different economy groups stand, October 2021 43 1.7 Impact of COVID-19 on economic activity by 2021 and relative size of the manufacturing sector before the pandemic, acros
30、s economy groups 43 1.8 Impact of COVID-19 on jobs during 2020 and relative size of the manufacturing sector before the pandemic, across economy groups 44 1.9 The role of manufacturing industries in strengthening socioeconomic resilience 44 1.10 Impact of COVID-19 on industrial production and the sp
31、eed of recovery across economy groups, 2019Q42021 Q2 45 1.11 The framework: Connecting the COVID-19 outbreak to industrial production (domestic channels)viiContents Page 46 1.12 The framework: Connecting the COVID-19 outbreak to industrial production (domestic and global channels) 48 1.13 Channels o
32、f impact and evidence from selected DEIEs 48 1.14 Top five most important challenges faced by manufacturing firms in selected DEIEs since the start of the pandemic, across regions and firm types 50 1.15 From industrial production to the UN Agenda 2030 for sustainable development 51 1.16 Drop in empl
33、oyment: Temporary and permanent workers, by gender 52 1.17 Estimated reduction in industrial CO2 emissions and contribution to total reductions across economy groups, 2020 54 1.18 Evolution of monthly index of world industrial production for selected industries: Differences in initial impact and pos
34、t-recovery dynamism, December 2019June 2021 55 1.19 Typology of global industries according to the observed impact of COVID-19 and the speed of recovery, 2019 Q42021 Q2 57 1.20 Impact of COVID-19 on economic activity by 2021 and share of COVID-19-vulnerable industries before the pandemic, across eco
35、nomy groups 58 1.21 Impact of COVID-19 on economic activity by 2021 and relative size of domestic demand, across economy groups 60 1.22 Comparison between the average impact of COVID-19 on economic activity by 2021 on countries with similar structural characteristics and different levels of industri
36、al capabilities 61 1.23 Determinants of COVID-19 impact on economic activity by 2021: The role of industrial capabilities 71 2.1 Country-level, industry-level, and firm-level factors shaping manufacturing firms resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic 74 2.2 Firm closures: Share of businesses tempora
37、rily and permanently closed by firm category, 2020 75 2.3 Impact of COVID-19 on firms: Share of firms that experienced a decrease, increase or no change on capacity utilization, sales, profits and worker layoffs by firm category, 20192021 76 2.4 Impact of COVID-19 on firms: Level of capacity utiliza
38、tion by firm category, 20192021 78 2.5 Impact of COVID-19 on firms: Drop in sales, profits and employment by firm category, 20192021 79 2.6 Elasticity of employment: The gender gap, 20192021 81 2.7 Industrial capabilities, firms survival and changes in employment, 20202021 81 2.8 Determinants of COV
39、ID-19 impact on manufacturing firms: The role of industrial capabilities 84 2.9 Digitalization and firms robustness: Drop in sales, profits and employment by digitally advanced and non-digitally advanced firm type, 20192021 91 2.10 A snapshot of firm-level readiness: Share of firms that experienced
40、a transformational change by firm category, 20202021 92 2.11 How digitalization can facilitate the introduction of response strategies to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis 93 2.12 Digitalization and firms readiness: Percent of firms that experienced a transformational change by digitally advanced and non
41、-digitally advanced firm type, 20202021viiiContents Page 94 2.13 Drivers of firm readiness: The effect of adopting ADP technologies on transformational changes 95 2.14 Changes in policymaking: The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis on policymaking process, 20202021 95 2.15 Most important problem
42、s faced by policymakers in selected DEIEs, by region, 20202021 96 2.16 Most-applied policy measures to help firms deal with the emergency, 20202021 97 2.17 Most effective policy responses to deal with the crisis: A mismatch of perceptions between firms and policymakers, 20202021 109 3.1 Global indus
43、trial robot density, 20002020, and share in total stocks of industrial robots, 2010 vs. 2020 110 3.2 Diffusion of ADP technologies among manufacturing firms in selected DEIEs in Africa, Asia and Latin America, 2021 110 3.3 Digitalization among manufacturing firms due to the pandemic in selected DEIE
44、s, by region, 2021 111 3.4 Share in world manufacturing value added, by economy group and geographical region, 19902020 112 3.5 Manufacturing labour productivity of DEIEs relative to IEs, selected regions, 20002019 112 3.6 Share of suppliers for all G750 manufacturing companies, by region of origin,
45、 20132019 113 3.7 Change in Asian share of total suppliers for all G750 manufacturing companies, byindustry, 20132019 113 3.8 Change in Asian share of total suppliers for all G750 manufacturing companies, byindustry, 20192020 114 3.9 Manufacturing firms expecting to increase investments in selected
46、DEIEs post-pandemic, byregion, 2021 116 3.10 Manufacturing CO2 emissions per unit of value added, by economy group, 20002018 117 3.11 Estimated 2020 daily change in global CO2 emissions relative to 2019 mean level, by sector 117 3.12 Adoption of environmentally friendly practices due to COVID-19 in
47、selected DEIEs, by region, 2021 118 3.13 Interrelationship between industrialization megatrends 154 5.1 Industrial production by economy group: Quarterlygrowth rates compared to prior year, 2018 Q12021 Q2 155 5.2 Monthly evolution of industrial production since the first pandemic-related drop, by ec
48、onomy group 155 5.3 Annual growth rates of total manufacturing exports, by economy groups, 2013-2020 156 5.4 Annual growth rates of merchandise exports by economy groups for selected products, 2015-2020 157 5.5 Manufacturing employment by economy group: Quarterly growth compared to prior year, 2018Q
49、12020 Q4 158 5.6 Industrial production by region: Quarterly growth rates compared to prior year, 2019 Q12021 Q2 159 5.7 Industrial production according to technological intensity by economy group: Quarterly growth rates compared to prior year, 2018 Q22021 Q2 160 5.8 Evolution of world industrial pro
50、duction in selected industries, 2018 Q12021 Q2ixContents Page 161 5.9 World industrial production: Quarterly growth rates compared to prior year, 2006 Q12020 Q4 161 5.10 World manufacturing exports: Annual growth rates compared to prior year, 20062020 161 5.11 World manufacturing employment: Quarter