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1、Global Equity Research16 March 2022Global Online TakeawayFood Fatigue - Plenty of headwinds short term but structural growth opportunity intact + M&A optionality.European Media & InternetMarcus Diebel AC(44 20) 7742-J.P. Morgan Securities plcKarin So(44-20) 3493-J.P. Morgan Securities plcU.S. Intern
2、etDoug Anmuth AC(1-212) 622-J.P. Morgan Securities LLCChina Internet & New MediaAlex Yao AC(852) 2800-J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) LimitedAndre Chang, CFA(86-21) 6106 SAC Registration Number: S1730520080002J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company Limit
3、edSouth Africa TMTJonathan D Kennedy-Good AC(27-11) 507-0355jonathan.kennedy-J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd.International InternetAnkur Rudra, CFA AC(91-22) 6157-J.P. Morgan India Private LimitedHaruka Mori AC(81-3) 6736-JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.Ranjan Sharma, CFA AC(65) 6882-
4、J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedStanley Yang AC(82-2) 758-J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul BranchSee page 170 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
5、its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.As we publish the 4th edition of our Global O
6、nline Takeaway report, the space is facing the perfect storm 1) COVID-19 related tailwinds are over and H1 faces particularly tough comps with a rather toxic mix of slowing top line growth combined with rising investments; 2) increasingly challenged consumer budgets are likely to cause downgrades; 3
7、) rising costs from wage inflation (both rider costs and tech employees) impact margins; and 4) rising rates drive a continued rotation out of this long duration, unprofitable (for most) sector. However, we would argue, a lot is now is reflected in valuations (the space has de-rated by 55% since Nov
8、ember) and with clear signs of industry rationalization, the long-term structural growth opportunity (driven by still a low online share, rising frequency, and new ancillary products) remains intact to us. M&A may be the only short-term catalyst within a difficult backdrop but looking forward, the p
9、rofitability improvement starting in H2 this year will bring the sector back into focus, in our view. We provide our annual deep dive into the Online Takeaway industry and focus on the current discussion points in the industry: 1) the level of competition in key markets and latest developments in te
10、rms of industry rationalization; 2) recent developments in unit economics and the long-term margin potential of (rapidly rising) delivery orders; 3) further revenue opportunities from new verticals such as online grocery and B2B; and 4) potential M&A scenarios on now reset valuations. Meaningful imp
11、rovements in unit economics/a clear path towards profitability is key to the investment case. The share of delivery orders is increasing rapidly (now 50%/41% vs. 17%/0% in 2018 for DH/JET UK) and stands at 100%/100%/67% for DASH/Uber/Meituan. We point to already profitable players (DASH/Meituan) and
12、 reassess unit economics we expect positive profit contribution to come in the next 6-12m for most players and see avg. EBITDA margins of 4% of GMV in the mid-term. M&A is the wild card and a potential near-term catalyst. Prosus (we calculate c.$12bn of firepower) stated in the past its willingness
13、to deploy further capital into the industry. In a rather difficult backdrop, we focus on names that present 1) a strong competitive position; 2) healthy balance sheets at low cash burn; and 3) scope for M&A. For Europe, we like JET/DROO (both OW) while we downgrade Delivery Hero from OW to N (and ta
14、ke it off the AFL, link) given limited visibility in regards to the companys plan to refinance. We also like Zomato (OW) and non-pure-plays such as Uber (OW), while we are cautious on Meituan (UW) and Alibaba (UW).We flag our (virtual) Euro Internet Seminars on March 21-24thwith key players such as
15、Delivery Hero, Jahez, Deliveroo, Just Eat Takeaway, Getir, Gorillas, Oda and Olo participating. Please reach out to your J.P. Morgan Sales contact to register for the event (detailed agenda in note).2Global Equity Research16 March 2022Marcus Diebel(44 20) 7742-Equity Ratings and Price TargetsMkt Cap
16、PriceRatingPrice TargetCompanyTicker($ mn)CCYPriceCurPrevCurEnd DatePrev End DateDeliverooROO LN1,885.32GBp108OWn/c163Dec-23201n/cDelivery Hero SEDHER GR10,759.89EUR37.99NOW53.20Dec-23107.00n/cJust Eat T NVJET LN5,889.43GBp2,465OWn/c3,391Dec-235,099n/cDoorDashDASH US30,668.73USD79.77Nn/c162.00Dec-22
17、n/cn/cUber TechnologiesUBER US59,766.61USD29.80OWn/c65.00Dec-22n/cn/cMeituan (3690)3690 HK74,337HKD106.00UWn/c90.00Dec-22n/cn/cAlibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)BABA US201,380USD76.76UWn/c65.00Dec-22n/cn/cGrab Holdings LimitedGRAB US11,966USD3.03Nn/c3.60Dec-22n/cn/cCoupangCPNG US23,798.22USD15.45N
18、n/c25.00Dec-22n/cn/cZomatoZOMATO IN8,020INR76.60OWn/c130.00Mar-23n/cn/cProsusPRX NA65,460.50EUR42.15Nn/c47.00Jun-23n/cn/cProsus (PRX SJ)PRX SJ67,404.21ZAc71,820Nn/c83,500Jun-23n/cn/cNaspers LtdNPN SJ21,268.91ZAc149,370Nn/c181,800Jun-23n/cn/cSource: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan e
19、stimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 15 Mar 22.3Global Equity Research16 March 2022Marcus Diebel(44 20) 7742-Table of ContentsExecutive Summary .8Valuation.11The Global Online Takeaway space a field of only a few large players .21Certainly more to come on the M&A front what are likely scenari
20、os? .25Unit economics are key to the investment case.28Growth OpportunitiesThe key growth drivers for the space are intact.41Dark stores / Ultrafast Grocery.46Dark kitchens are also evolving fast.53Subscriptions help drive unit economics .55Advertising revenues.57Current HeadwindsConsumer budgets ar
21、e under pressure from inflation.59From an ESG perspectiveESG Perspective: Rider Regulation.62ESG Perspective: Environment.64Local Market InsightsUK.66Continental Europe .71United States.72Brazil.75Latin America (ex-Brazil) .79China .80Hong Kong SAR.82Taiwan.84India.874Global Equity Research16 March
22、2022Marcus Diebel(44 20) 7742-Japan.90Korea.99Southeast Asia.101Company Section Deliveroo.103Delivery Hero SE.110Just Eat T NV.121DoorDash.129Uber Technologies.133Meituan (3690).137Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA).141Grab Holdings Limited.145Coupang.150Zomato .154Prosus .158Prosus (PRX SJ).162Na
23、spers Ltd.1665Global Equity Research16 March 2022Marcus Diebel(44 20) 7742-Table 1: Summary of recommendations and stock views StockInvestment thesisDeliveroo(OW)Deliveroo has recently shown strong momentum in new restaurant sign-ups. As highlighted in our web-scrape analysis in Nov21 (link here), t
24、he company is gaining strong traction (in terms of restaurant partners) in Tier 2 cities in the UK and even more importantly also in rural areas - we believe the fast roll-out of services in Tier 3+ cities is still underappreciated by the market.Credit card data suggests that Deliveroo Plus (the com
25、panys subscription model) has increased significantly as a % of total UK orders in H2 2021 both in London and in the rest of UK, driven by the Amazon Prime partnership which we believe allows for better customer acquisition and retention in times of tightening consumer budgets. While top-line moment
26、um should reflect solid market positions in UK, HK and France going forward, we believe it is critical for the investment case that management provides 2022 EBITDA guidance and a detailed bridge for the companys medium-term guidance of 8.0% gross profit as a % of GTV in order for the stock to re-rat
27、e.A potential change to rider regulation has been a key driver of recent share price under-performance (next to rotation and weakening consumer budgets) but a likely stable UK regulatory setup (riders have been ruled as freelancers) and a small impact on France (we expect 4% of GMV in the mid-term.3
28、. How cyclical are Online Takeaway businesses? Clearly, the Online Takeaway space is driven by structural growth (due to rising online penetration and rising order frequency + average order value). While the space has never faced a recession and an environment of tightening consumer budgets, we see
29、factors that mitigate potential impacts: Consumers may save on other expenses such as holidays / other luxury goods in a downturn while “treating” themselves with a takeaway order we flag that Pay TV operator Sky experienced strong growth in subscribers in the last downturn. Also, Delivery Heros Tur
30、key business is a good indication with a strong performance throughout 2018/2019 when MENA orders rose by +56%/57% despite a significant macro backdrop. Clearly, short-term comps look rather challenging for many players but we believe rising order frequency, more restaurants on the platforms post lo
31、ckdown (which is likely to stay) and additional services (ultrafast grocery, dark kitchen, B2B, white label, and ad tech) should allow for additional revenue growth going forward.4.The elephant in the room what are the next M&A scenarios? Given that running the most efficient delivery operation is k
32、ey to gaining market share, we believe acquiring assets/customer lists is less of a theme going forward. Instead, we would expect bigger deals. U.S. deals (Postmates/Uber and also Jet/Grubhub) have been announced and Delivery Hero also made larger-scale acquisitions in Spain (Glovo). Prosus is likel
33、y to play an important role in this context given its aspiration to increase its exposure to Online Takeaway and its strong balance sheet. In the M&A section we scan for countries with a high overlap of players.5. We flag our (virtual) Online Takeaway Seminars on March 21st-24th. Speakers include ma
34、nagement from Delivery Hero, Jahez, Gorillas, Deliveroo, Getir, Just Eat T, Zomato, Oda, and Olo. Please contact your J.P. Morgan Sales contact to register for the event.Table 3: European Internet Seminars Agenda Monday, March 21stFood DeliveryTuesday, March 22ndFood Delivery /OtherWednesday, March
35、23rdOnline Classifieds Thursday, March 24thOther E-com/ Internet10:00 - 10:50 GMT06:00 - 06:50 ESTAdevintaAntoine Jouteau, Head of Leboncoin, France12:00 - 12:50 GMT08:00 - 08:50 ESTDelivery HeroNiklas stberg, CEO and Co-FounderZomatoAkshant Goyal, CFO13:00 - 13:50 GMT09:00 - 09:50 ESTJahezHeni Jall
36、ouli, CFORightmoveAlison Dolan, CFOSchibstedChristian Printzell Halvorsen, EVP Nordic Marketplaces14:00 - 14:50 GMT10:00 - 10:50 ESTGorillasKaan Smer, CEO and Co-FounderOdaKarl Munthe-Kaas, Co-Founder & CEO-McKinsey & COThomas Schumacher, Partner and Strategic Advisor Online Classifieds15:00 - 15:50
37、 GMT11:00 - 11:50 ESTDeliverooWill Shu, CEO and Co-FounderDavid Hancock, Head of IRScout24Dr Dirk Schmelzer, CFO Thomas Schroeter, Chief Product OfficerABOUT YOUTarek Mller, , CEO for Marketing and BrandsMcMaklerBenedikt Manigold, CFO16:00 - 16:50 GMT12:00 - 12:50 ESTGetirNazim Salur, FounderMoonpig
38、Nickyl Raithatha, CEO Andy MacKinnon, CFOThe AIM GroupJonathan Turpin, PrincipleConsultant Online ClassifiedsOloNoah Glass, CEO and FounderPeter Benevides, CFO17:00 - 17:50 GMT13:00 - 13:50 ESTJust Eat TJitse Groen, CEOAuto1Markus Boser, CFOSource: J.P. MorganFigure 3: Online Food Delivery: 2023E EB
39、ITDA as a % of GTVSource: J.P. Morgan estimates. *JET includes iFood and Meituan and Uber Eats are food delivery business only.Figure 4: Online Food Delivery: 2024E EBITDA as a % of GTVSource: J.P. Morgan estimates. *Meituan and Uber Eats are food delivery business only.1.6%1.6%1.2%0.2%-0.3%-0.3%-0.
40、5%-1.4%DoorDashMeituanUber EatsJETZomatoDeliverooDelivery HeroGrab2.4%2.0%1.9% 1.8%1.0%1.0%0.8%DoorDashMeituanUber EatsZomatoDeliverooDelivery HeroJET10Global Equity Research16 March 2022Marcus Diebel(44 20) 7742-Part 1: Valuation11Global Equity Research16 March 2022Marcus Diebel(44 20) 7742-Valuati
41、onThe Global Online Takeaway space has materially underperformed LTMAfter a stellar outperformance in 2020 and a strong Q1 2021 with COVID-19 benefits accelerating, the Global Online Takeaway space has seen a substantial underperformance in the last 12 months driven by (1) rotation out of unprofitab
42、le tech names, (2) rising investment levels and (3) rising geopolitical risk and weakening consumer budgets. Looking specifically at the European names, the Online Takeaway sector has seen significant underperformance against other sectors and MSCI indices.Figure 5: Global Online Takeaway/ Internet
43、companies LTM (or since listed) share price performance versus indexSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P Finance. Priced at cob on March 15th2022.Figure 6: European Online Takeaway LTM share price performance vs. other sectorsSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Priced at cob on March 15th2022.+13%+7%+2%+1%-45%-
44、51%-55%-56%-64%-66%-67%-68%-70%-72%-77%European MediaMSCI EuropeMSCIZomatoDoorDashUberProsusNaspersDelivery HeroJust Eat TakeawayMeituanAlibabaCoupangDeliverooGrab 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Just Eat TakeawayDelivery HeroD
45、eliverooEuropean Capital GoodsEuropean MediaEuropean Consumer StaplesEuropean Consumer RetailMSCI Europe12Global Equity Research16 March 2022Marcus Diebel(44 20) 7742-The space is characterized by a wide range of valuations and financial profilesValuations of the Global Online Takeaway players diffe
46、r widely, partly driven by accounting differences. Below we provide a detailed overview of the major Online Takeaway pure plays and the key metrics to focus on.Table 4: Valuation of Global Online Takeaway companies (pure-plays only)Company2022E2023E2024E2025EEV / GTVDeliveroo0.1x0.1x0.1x0.1xDelivery
47、 Hero0.2x0.1x0.1x0.1xDoorDash0.5x0.4x0.4x0.3xJust Eat Takeaway0.2x0.2x0.2x0.1xZomato2.8x1.8x1.4x1.1xEV / SalesDeliveroo0.4x0.4x0.3x0.3xDelivery Hero0.7x0.6x0.4x0.4xDoorDash4.2x3.4x2.8x2.4xJust Eat Takeaway1.0 x0.9x0.8x0.7xZomato14.0 x8.9x6.2x4.7xEV / Gross ProfitDeliveroo1.5x1.3x1.1x1.0 xDelivery He
48、ro4.3x3.2x2.5x2.1xDoorDash8.2x6.3x5.0 x4.1xJust Eat Takeaway2.7x2.2x1.8x1.6xZomato16.1x10.1x7.2x5.5xEV / EBITDADeliveroon/an/a9.5x5.6xDelivery Heron/an/a11.3x4.9xDoorDash66.8x27.2x15.5x10.4xJust Eat Takeawayn/a169.0 x21.6x9.9xZomaton/an/a75.0 x25.6xP / EDeliveroon/an/a104.6x27.3xDelivery Heron/an/a3
49、2.0 x8.7xDoorDash157.1x42.4x22.5x16.7xJust Eat Takeawayn/an/an/an/aZomaton/an/a154.2x32.5xEV / FCFDeliveroon/an/a9.6x6.6xDelivery Heron/an/a36.5x8.8xDoorDash54.7x34.1x18.1x13.9xJust Eat Takeawayn/an/a26.8x11.9xZomaton/an/a558.4x46.5xSource: J.P. Morgan estimates, JET includes iFood. Note accounting
50、differences among players refer to link. Priced at cob on March 15th2022.Table 5: Financials for Global Online Takeaway companies (or relevant food delivery segments) (1/3)Company (or segment)Orders 22-24E CAGRGTV 22-24E CAGRSales 22-24E CAGREBITDA 22-24E CAGRDeliveroo+13%+13%+17%n/aDelivery Hero+21