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1、TRADING IN THE ZONE交易心理分析Trading in the zone : master the market with confidence, discipline, and a winning attitude / by Mark Douglas,交易心理分析用自信、纪律和赢家的态度来掌握市场/作者：马克道格拉斯DEDICATION献词This book is dedicated to all of the traders I have had the pleasure of working with over the last 18 years as a trading
2、 coach. Each of you in your own unique way is a part of the insight and guidance this book will provide to those who choose to trade from a confident, disciplined, and consistent state of mind.本书献给过去 18 年来我所认识的所有交易者，作为交易教练，我和他们在一起很快乐。你们中的每一个人用自己独特的方式，为本书提供见解和指导，引导那些用自信、纪律和持续一致思想交易的人们。TABLE OF CONTEN
3、TS目录FOREWORD4序言4PREFACE5引子5ATTITUDE SURVEY8态度调查表8CHAPTER 1 THE ROAD TO SUCCESS: FUNDAMENTAL, TECHNICAL, OR MENTAL ANALYSIS? 13第 01 章 成功之路：基本面，技术面或思想分析面？13IN THE BEGINNING: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS13开始：基本面分析13THE SHIFT TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS14转到技术分析14THE SHIFT TO MENTAL ANALYSIS15转到思想分析15CHAPTER 2 THE LUR
4、E (AND THE DANGERS) OF TRADING25第 02 章 交易的诱惑（和危险）25THE ATTRACTION26吸引26THE DANGERS29危险29THE SAFEGUARDS33安全措施33PROBLEM: The unwillingness to Create Rules35问题：不愿意制定原则35PROBLEM: Failure to Take Responsibility36问题：不负责任36180PROBLEM: Addiction to Random Rewards38问题：对随机的回报上瘾38PROBLEM: External versus Inter
5、nal Control39问题：外部控制对抗内部控制39CHAPTER 3 TAKING RESPONSIBILITY40第 03 章 自己承担责任40SHAPING YOUR MENTAL ENVIRONMENT40塑造你的思想环境40REACTING TO LOSS44对亏损的反应44WINNERS, LOSERS, BOOMERS, AND BUSTERS54赢家，输家，暴发户和亏损者54CHAPTER 4 CONSISTENCY: A STATE OF MIND60第 04 章 持续一致性：一种思想状态60THINKING ABOUT TRADING61考虑交易61REALLY UND
6、ERSTANDING RISK63完全明白风险63ALIGNING YOUR MENTAL ENVIRONMENT67让你的思想持续一致67CHAPTER 5 THE DYNAMICS OF PERCEPTION70第 05 章 认知的动力70DEBUGGING YOUR MENTAL SOFTWARE71为你的思想软件找茬71PERCEPTION AND LEARNING74认知和学习74PERCEPTION AND RISK79认知和风险79THE POWER OF ASSOCIATION79联想的力量79CHAPTER 6 THE MARKETS PERSPECTIVE85第 06 章
7、市场的角度85THE “UNCERTAINTY” PRINCIPLE85“不确定”原则85MARKETS MOST FUNDAMENTAL CHARACTERISTIC (IT CAN EXPRESS ITSELF IN AN ALMOST INFINITE COMBINATION OF WAYS )90市场最基本的特征（它几乎可以用任何组合方式来表达自己）90CHAPTER 7 THE TRADERS EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES96第 07 章 交易者的优势：考虑概率96PROBABILITIES PARADOX: RANDOM OUTCOME, CONS
8、ISTENT RESULTS96概率的似非而是：随机的结果，持续一致的收入96TRADING IN THE MOMENT100有机会就交易100MANAGING EXPECTATIONS106管理期望106ELIMINATING THE EMOTIONAL RISK112消灭情绪风险112CHAPTER 8 WORKING WITH YOUR BELIEFS115第 08 章 和信念一起工作115DEFINING THE PROBLEM116给问题下定义116DEFINING THE TERMS118对几个说法下定义118HOW THE FUNDAMENTAL TRUTHS RELATE TO
9、 THE SKILLS120这些基本事实和技术如何联系起来120MOVING TOWARD “THE ZONE”123进入这个“状态”123CHAPTER 9 THE NATURE OF BELIEFS.124第 09 章 信念的天性124THE ORIGINS OF A BELIEF126信念的来源126BELIEFS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR LIVES128信念和信念对我们生活的影响128BELIEFS VS. THE TRUTH133信念对抗事实133CHAPTER 10 THE IMPACT OF BELIEFS ON TRADING135第 10 章 信念对交
10、易的影响135THE PRIMARY CHARACTERISTICS OF A BELIEF136信念的基本特点136SELF EVALUATION AND TRADING148自我评估和交易148CHAPTER 11 THINKING LIKE A TRADER150第 11 章 像交易者一样思考150THE MECHANICAL STAGE.152机械阶段152THE ROLE OF SELF-DISCIPLINE157自律的作用157CREATING A BELIEF IN CONSISTENCY162创造一个相信持续一致性的信念162EXERCISE: LEARNING TO TRAD
11、E AN EDGE LIKE A CASINO165练习：向赌场学习利用优势交易165A FINAL NOTE176最后的提醒176ATTITUDE SURVEY176态度调查176INDEX错误！未定义书签。英语索引（张轶略去）错误！未定义书签。FOREWORD序言The great bull market in stocks has led to an equally great bull market in the number of books published on the subject of how to make money trading the markets. Many
12、 ideas abound, some good, some not, some original, some just a repackaging of earlier works. Occasionally, though, a writer comes forward with something that really sets him or her apart from the pack, something special. One such writer is Mark Douglas.大牛市导致出版社出了很多书，这些书都是谈如何通过交易赚钱。有很多思想，有些很好，有些则不行，有
13、些是原创的，有些只是把以前的作品再重新包装一下而已。偶尔，一些作者会脱颖而出，写出特殊的作品。其中一个作者就是马克道格拉斯。Mark Douglas, in Trading in the Zone, has written a book that is the accumulation of years of thought and research - the work of a lifetime - and for those of us who view trading as a profession, he has produced a gem.在马克道格拉斯的书交易心理分析中，展示了
14、他多年的思想和研究一生的心血对于我们把交易当作职业的人来说，他给我们的是一块宝石。Trading in the Zone is an in-depth look at the challenges that we face when we take up the challenge of trading. To the novice, the only challenge appears to be to find a way to make money. Once the novice learns that tips, brokers advice, and other ways to j
15、ustify buying or selling do not work consistently, he discovers that he either needs to develop a reliable trading strategy or purchase one. After that, trading should be easy, right? All you have to do is follow the rules, and the money will fall into your lap.我们在交易时会遇到挑战，交易心理分析则对这些挑战提供了深刻的见解。对于新手来
16、说，唯一的挑战似乎就是找到赚钱的方法。当新手明白消息，经纪公司的建议和其它买卖方法都不能持续一致赢利时，他发现要么自己设计一个可靠的交易系统，要么去买一个。完成了这个任务，交易就简单了，对不？你要做的就是遵守原则，这样钱就来了。At this point, if not before, novices discover that trading can turn into one of the most frustrating experiences they will ever face. This experience leads to the oft-started statistic
17、that 95 percent of futures traders lose all of their money within the first year of trading. Stock traders generally experience the same results, which is why pundits always point to the fact that most stock traders fail to outperform a simple buy and hold investment scenario.这时，如果新手以前没有体验过的话，现在就会发现
18、交易进入了前所未有的艰难阶段。统计的结果表明，95%的期货交易者会在第一年把钱亏光，而新手就要体验这样的事。股票交易者通常也会体验同样的结果，这就是为什么权威人士说大部分股票交易者的表现还不如买入并持有的投资策略。So, why do people, the majority of whom are extremely successful in other occupations, fail so miserably as traders? Are successful traders born and not made? Mark Douglas says no. Whats necess
19、ary, he says, is that the individual acquire the traders mindset. It sounds easy, but the fact is, this mindset is very foreign when compared with the way our life experiences teach us to think about the world.那么，为什么大部分人在做其它职业时超级成功，做交易时就输的这么惨呢？成功的交易者是天生的吗？马克道格拉斯说不是的。他说需要有交易者的思想。这听起来很简单，但事实上，交易者的思想和生
20、活中我们看待世界的方法完全不同。That 95-percent failure rate makes sense when you consider how most of us experience life, using skills learnedas we grow. When it comes to trading, however, it turns out that the skills we learn to earn high marks in school, advance our careers, and create relationships with other p
21、eople, the skills we are taught that should carry us through life, turn out to be inappropriate for trading. Traders, we find out, must learn to think in terms of probabilities and to surrender all of the skills we have acquired to achieve in virtually every other aspect of our lives. In Trading in
22、the Zone, Mark Douglas teaches us how. He has put together a very valuable book. His sources are his own personal experiences as a trader, a traders coach in Chicago, author, and lecturer in his field of trading psychology.当你想想大部分人在生活中是如何思考的，如何在成长中学习技术的，你就明白 95%的失败率是合理的。我们在学校努力得高分，在职业生涯中往上爬，和别人建立友好关
23、系，这些都是我们在成长中学习的技术技巧，然而对于交易来说，这些技术技巧都是不合适的。交易者必须学习概率，并放弃我们生活中学到的方方面面的技术技巧。马克道格拉斯会在交易心理分析中告诉我们如何做到。这本书很有价值。他自己是交易者、芝加哥的交易教练、作家、交易心理分析演讲家，这些经验是本书的源泉。My recommendation? Enjoy Douglass Trading in the Zone and, in doing so, develop a traders mindset.我有什么推荐？我建议你阅读马克道格拉斯的交易心理分析并形成交易者的思想。Thorn Hartle索恩哈特尔PRE
24、FACE引子The goal of any trader is to turn profits on a regular basis, yet so few people ever really make consistent money as traders. What accounts for the small percentage of traders who are consistently successful? To me, the determining factor is psychological - the consistent winners think differe
25、ntly from everyone else.每个交易者的目标都是稳定赚钱，但是只有极少数的交易者实现了持续一致地赚钱。他们是如何实现持续一致赚钱的？对我来说，决定因素是心理持续一致的赢家和别人想的不一样。I started trading in 1978. At the time, I was managing a commercial casualty insurance agency in the suburbs of Detroit, Michigan. I had a very successful career and thought I could easily transfe
26、r that success into trading. Unfortunately, I found that was not the case. By 1981, I was thoroughly disgusted with my inability to trade effectively while holding another job, so I moved to Chicago and got a job as a broker with Merrill Lynch at the Chicago Board of Trade. How did I do? Well, withi
27、n nine months of moving to Chicago, I had lost nearly everything I owned. My losses were the result of both my trading activities and my exorbitant life style, which demanded that I make a lot of money as a trader.我 1978 年开始交易。当时，我在密歇根州底特律城郊管理一个商业的伤残保险分公司。我的职业生涯非常成功，我想我可以把我的成功移植到交易中。很不幸，我失败了。到了 1981
28、 年，我对自己一方面要工作，一方又交易不顺而彻底苦恼。于是我搬到芝加哥，在芝加哥交易所美林证券经纪公司找了一份工作，做经纪人。我是怎么做的？嗯，搬到芝加哥 9 个月后，我几乎失去了一切。我本想做交易赚很多钱，但是我的交易行为和昂贵的交易风格让我几乎失去了一切。From these early experiences as a trader, I learned an enormous amount about myself, and about the role of psychology in trading. As a result, in 1982, I started working
29、on my first book, The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes. When I began this project I had no concept of how difficult it was to write a book or explain something that I understood for myself in a manner and form that would be useful to other people. I thought it was going to take me be
30、tween six and nine months to get the job done. It took seven and a half years and was finally published by Prentice Hall in 1990.通过早期的交易，我对自己和交易心理扮演的角色有了很多了解。结果，我在 1982 年开始写我的第一本书有纪律的交易者形成赢家态度。当我开始写书时，我才知道把自己的思想写成对别人有用的东西是多么难。我以为 69 个月可以完成此书。结果写了 7 年半，于 1990 年由普林蒂斯霍尔出版公司出版。In 1983, I left Merrill Ly
31、nch to start a consulting firm, Trading Behavior Dynamics, where I presently develop and conduct seminars on trading psychology and act in the capacity of what is commonly referred to as a trading coach. Ive done countless presentations for trading companies, clearing firms, brokerage houses, banks,
32、 and investment conferences all over the world. Ive worked at a personal level, one on one, with virtually every type of trader in the business, including some of the biggest floor traders, hedgers, option specialists, and CTAs, as well as neophytes.1983 年我离开了美林，办了一个顾问公司叫“交易行为动力”，我设计了一个研讨会，我自己做交易教练，
33、教别人交易心理。我为全世界无数的交易公司、清算公司、经纪公司、银行、投资会议做演讲。我采用一对一的方式，几乎和每种类型的交易者都接触过，包括最大的场内交易者、对冲者、期权专家、商品交易顾问和新手。As of this writing, I have spent the last seventeen years dissecting the psychological dynamics behind trading so that I could develop effective methods for teaching the proper principles of success. Wh
34、at Ive discovered is that, at the most fundamental level, there is a problem with the way we think. There is something inherent in the way our minds work that doesnt fit very well with the characteristics shown by the markets.当我写到这里时，我应经用了 17 年时间剖析交易心理，所以我可以形成有效的方法教别人成功的原则。我发现，从最基本的方面说，我们的思想方式有问题。我们
35、天生的思想模式和市场特点是不搭配的。Those traders who have confidence in their own trades, who trust themselves to do what needs to be done without hesitation, are the ones who become successful. They no longer fear the erratic behavior of the market. They learn to focus on the information that helps them spot opport
36、unities to make a profit, rather than focusing on the information that reinforces their fears.对自己的交易有自信，知道怎么做，不犹豫的交易者会成功。他们不害怕市场飘忽不定的行为。他们关注能赚钱的信息，而不是关注会增加他们害怕感的信息。While this may sound complicated, it all boils down to learning to believe that: (1) you dont need to know whats going to happen next to
37、 make money; (2) anything can happen; and (3) every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience. The trade either works or it doesnt. In any case, you wait for the next edge to appear and go through the process again and again. With this approach you will learn in a
38、 methodical, non-random fashion what works and what doesnt. And, just as important, you will build a sense of self-trust so that you wont damage yourself in an environment that has the unlimited qualities the markets have.这听起来也许复杂，总结下来就是你要学习并相信：（1）你不必知道下一步会如何也能赚钱；（2）任何事都会发生；（3）任何时刻都是独特的，这意味着每个优势，每个结
39、果都是独特的体验。交易不是成功就是失败。在每笔交易中，你等待优势的到来，然后一次又一次地重复这个过程。用这种方法，你就会知道什么有用，什么没用。还有重要的一点，你要自己建立自信，以防止市场无数的特点毁了你。Most traders dont believe that their trading problems are the result of the way they think about trading or, more specifically, how they are thinking while they are trading. In my first book, The D
40、isciplined Trader, I identified the problems confronting the trader from a mental perspective and then built a philosophical framework for understanding the nature of these problems and why they exist. I had five major objectives in mind in writing Trading in the Zone:大部分交易者不相信他们的交易问题来自他们的思想，更具体地说，是
41、他们的交易思想。在我的第一本书有纪律的交易者中，我用精神的角度来确定交易者的问题，用哲学的框架来解释这些问题的自然性，以及原因。我在写交易心理分析时有 5 个重要的目标：To prove to the trader that more or better market analysis is not the solution to his trading difficulties or lack of consistent results.向交易者证明更多更好的市场分析不能解决交易问题，不能实现持续一致赢利。To convince the trader that its his attitud
42、e and “state of mind” that determine his results.让交易者相信他的态度和思想状态决定他的结果。To provide the trader with the specific beliefs and attitudes that are necessary to build a winners mindset, which means learning how to think in probabilities.向交易者提供明确的信念和态度，也就是赢家思想必须的，这意味着如何用概率思考。To address the many conflicts,
43、contradictions, and paradoxes in thinking that cause the typical trader to assume that he already does think in probabilities, when he really doesnt.说明很多冲突的、矛盾的、似是而非的想法，这些想法让交易者以为他在思考概率，其实他没有。To take the trader through a process that integrates this thinking strategy into his mental system at a func
44、tional level.带领交易者走过这个过程，把他的思考策略和思想系统结合起来，且具有可操作性。(Note: Until recently, most traders were men, but I recognize that more and more women are joining the ranks. In an effort to avoid confusion and awkward phrasing, I have consistently used the pronoun “he” throughout this book in describing traders.
45、This certainly does not reflect any bias on my part.)（注意：目前，大部分交易者是男性，但我注意到越来越多的女性开始交易。为了避免混乱和表达的不方便，我在本书中一直用“他”来描述交易者。这肯定不代表我有偏见。）Trading in the Zone presents a serious psychological approach to becoming a consistent winner in your trading. I do not offer a trading system; I am more interested in s
46、howing you how to think in the way necessary to become a profitable trader. I assume that you already have your own system, your own edge. You must learn to trust your edge. The edge means there is a higher probability of one outcome than another. The greater your confidence, the easier it will be t
47、o execute your trades. This book is designed to give you the insight and understanding you need about yourself and the nature of trading, so that actually doing it becomes as easy, simple, and stressfree as when youre just watching the market and thinking about doing it.交易心理分析提供了认真的心理方法，让你成为持续一致的赢家。
48、我没有提供交易系统，我更大的兴趣是告诉你如何思考，以成为赢利的交易者。我相信你已经有了自己的系统，有了自己的优势。你必须努力地去相信你的优势。优势意味着比较高的概率。你越自信，你越容易进行交易。本书帮助你深刻认识你自己和交易的本性，这样当你实际操作时，你看着市场，思考交易时，行动就容易了，简单了，压力也小了。In order to determine how well you “think like a trader,” take the following Attitude Survey. There are no right or wrong answers. Your answers are an indication of how consistent y