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1、【精品文档】如有侵权，请联系网站删除，仅供学习与交流交易心理分析中英对照第二版word.精品文档.（张轶注：以下是封面的文字）TRADING IN THE ZONEMASTER THE MARKET WITH CONFIDENCE, DISCIPLINE AND A WINNING ATTITUDE交易心理分析用自信、纪律和赢家的态度来掌握市场MARK DOUGLAS马克道格拉斯Foreword by Thorn Hartle索恩哈特尔作序张轶翻译。2009年7月31日第二版。2278279本翻译内容仅供投资者学习用，不可用于任何商业目的，张轶不负任何法律责任。（张轶注：以上是封面的文字）（张
2、轶注：以下是折手的文字）也许你非常了解市场，也许你知道谁是主要的玩家，你知道何时买入，你知道何时卖出，你还知道哪些股票可能有行情。但是你对自己的了解程度如何？即使是最聪明，最机敏，最有目标，基础牢靠的交易者也会被反面的思想影响，做出了糟糕的决定，导致交易错误。他们没有能力保持客观，或者缺乏必要的信心去执行交易。或者是他们被矛盾的心理困扰着，对交易有错误的概念，或者是市场在控制他们如何选股。结果如何？大部分交易者在交易的第一年会把大部分资金亏掉，甚至亏光。马克道格拉斯是交易行为动力公司的总裁，他为华尔街著名的人物或公司做交易教练，过去20年他一直致力于帮助交易者形成自信、纪律和赢家态度以掌握市场
3、。对于道格拉斯来说，成功的关键就是提高交易者的思想状态。殚思极虑的市场分析或最新的“系统”并不是成功的关键。他教交易者们用概率思考问题并采用“赢家的思维”这个核心信念。“进入状态”的交易者不必知道也不关心市场下一步会如何。他们知道自己下一步要怎么办，这就是他们和别人的不同之处。道格拉斯在交易心理分析中揭露了交易者不能持续一致赚钱的原因并帮助他们克服根深蒂固的曾经让他们亏钱的心理习惯。道格拉斯一步一步地揭开市场的神秘之处并教交易者们看透随机的结果，搞懂风险的真实含义，并轻松地采用“不确定性原则”指导所有的股票投机。交易心理分析用新的思维让你掌握市场的优势。再结合交易“状态”这个有力的杠杆获得前所
4、未有的利润。关于作者：（张轶注：此处略去了作者的照片）马克道格拉斯是纽约金融学院出版的有纪律的交易者形成赢家态度的作者。他是一位活跃的交易者，也是交易行为动力公司的总裁，这家公司为经纪公司、银行、基金经理以及很多专业机构提供交易心理方面的研讨会和培训。他经常到欧洲和远东的道琼斯研讨会以及美国的各种投资会议上发表演讲。目前他居住在亚利桑纳州的斯科茨代尔市，你去通过网站找到他。索恩哈特尔是华尔街奇才公司的副总裁，这家公司为交易者出版专业级的学习课程；他还是网站的编辑，这家网站为喜欢技术分析的交易者和投资者提供学习内容；他曾经有9年是股票和商品技术分析的编辑。（张轶注：以上是折手的文字）（张轶注：以
5、下是封底的文字）“交易心理分析很畅销。它强调了要想成为有竞争力的持续一致的交易者就必须拥有正确的心理态度。本书一开始解释了为何要定义问题，最后表明要想在心理层面实现自信的交易必须做什么，我毫无保留地推荐次书。”罗伯特克劳兹，总裁斐波那契交易者公司“你的朋友是否曾经给过你这样的礼物，礼物表面上看起来普普通通，但是当你仔细看时，却发现它有极大的价值？我收到了这样的礼物，那就是交易心理分析。我强烈推荐每个人都把这本书当作礼物送给自己。”韦尔斯韦尔德，总裁趋势研究“要想成为成功的交易者，交易的心理部分恐怕是最重要的因素。马克道格拉斯是这方面最优秀的老师。”约翰希尔，总裁期货真相“当我阅读道格拉斯的交易
6、心理分析时，我忍不住对自己说哇他说到点子上了！因为马克是最早的思考者，他在书中讲到了无价的真知灼见，你在其它地方是找不到这些知识的。我应该说马克才是最早的深度思考者。”艾迪关，总编T“马克道格拉斯拥有独特的能力，他的作品非常明确，他的思想能轻松地应用到交易上，也可以应用到人际关系方面等等。长期以来，市场一直在提供无穷的机会。当那些交易机会到来时拥有正确的思维是非常关键的。这本书和市场奇才中描述的成功交易者的故事不同。这本书谈的是你，谈的是你的问题，谈的是你如何拥有正确的思维以成为持续一致的成功交易者。建议购买这本书并把这本书一直带在身边，直到本书中讲的内容溶于你的性格为止。”乔科威尔，总裁巴台
7、农神殿期货管理公司“交易心理分析目前是马克最好的著作。任何交易者的桌面上都应该有两本书，这是其中一本。”吉姆特温迪曼，首席交易员CQG公司（张轶注：以上是封底的文字）NEW YORK INSTITUTE OF FINANCE纽约金融学院Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data议会图书馆出版物分类数据Douglas, Mark (Mark J.)马克道格拉斯Trading in the zone : master the market with confidence, discipline, and a winning attitude
8、 / by Mark Douglas, p. cm.交易心理分析用自信、纪律和赢家的态度来掌握市场/作者：马克道格拉斯ISBN 0-7352-0144-7 (cloth)国际标准图书编号 0-7352-0144-7（布封面）1. Stocks. 2. Speculation. I. Title.本书类别：1.股票。 2.投机。HG6041 .D59 2001332.64 - dc21 00 045251 2000 by Prentice Hall普林蒂斯霍尔出版公司2000年版权All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduce
9、d in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher.如果没有出版社的书面许可，本书任何部分都不可以用任何形式复制。Printed in the United States of America印刷地：美国10 9876 5 4321This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold
10、 with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional service. If legal advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.本出版物的设计完全按照作者的主题展开。本书的销售不代表出版社会提供任何法律、财务或其它专业服务。如果你需要法律建议或
11、专家服务，请联系有实力的专业人士。 From the Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers and Associations.以上来自美国条形码委员会和美国出版社联合委员会的联合宣言。ATTENTION: CORPORATIONS AND SCHOOLS注意：公司和学校Prentice Hall books are available at quantity discounts with bulk
12、 purchase for educational, business, or sales promotional use. For information, please write to: Prentice Hall, Special Sales, 240 Frisch Court, Paramus, NJ 07652. Please supply: title of book, ISBN, quantity, how the book will be used, date needed.如果是教育机构，公司或促销时大量采购，可以得到普林蒂斯霍尔出版公司的打折价。需要信息，请写到：邮编07
13、652，新泽西州，帕拉莫斯，弗里希院240号，促销部，普林蒂斯霍尔出版公司。请提供：书名，ISBN号，书的作用，需要的日期。NEW YORK INSTITUTE OF FINANCE纽约金融学院An Imprint of Prentice Hall Press普林蒂斯霍尔出版公司印刷Paramus, NJ 07652NYIF and NEW YORK INSTITUTE OF FINANCE are trademarks of Executive Tax Reports, Inc. used under license by Prentice Hall Direct, Inc.纽约金融学院是普
14、林蒂斯霍尔出版公司注册的纳税公司的注册商标。DEDICATION献词This book is dedicated to all of the traders I have had the pleasure of working with over the last 18 years as a trading coach. Each of you in your own unique way is a part of the insight and guidance this book will provide to those who choose to trade from a confid
15、ent, disciplined, and consistent state of mind.本书献给过去18年来我作为交易教练时所认识的所有交易者，我和他们在一起很快乐。你们中的每一个人用自己独特的方式为本书提供见解和指导，引导那些选择用自信、纪律和持续一致思想交易的人们。TABLE OF CONTENTS目录FOREWORD8序言8PREFACE10引子10ATTITUDE SURVEY13态度调查表13CHAPTER 1 THE ROAD TO SUCCESS: FUNDAMENTAL, TECHNICAL, OR MENTAL ANALYSIS?19第01 章 成功之路：基本面、技术面
16、或思维分析面？19IN THE BEGINNING: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS19先谈：基本面分析19THE SHIFT TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS21再谈技术分析21THE SHIFT TO MENTAL ANALYSIS23再谈心理分析23CHAPTER 2 THE LURE (AND THE DANGERS) OF TRADING37第02章 交易的诱惑（和危险）37THE ATTRACTION37交易的吸引力37THE DANGERS41交易的危险之处41THE SAFEGUARDS47交易的安全措施47PROBLEM: The unwillingnes
17、s to Create Rules49问题：不愿意制定原则49PROBLEM: Failure to Take Responsibility51问题：不负责任51PROBLEM: Addiction to Random Rewards53问题：对随机回报感到上瘾53PROBLEM: External versus Internal Control55问题：外部控制和内部控制55CHAPTER 3 TAKING RESPONSIBILITY56第03章 自己承担责任56SHAPING YOUR MENTAL ENVIRONMENT57塑造你的心理环境57REACTING TO LOSS62对亏损
18、的反应62WINNERS, LOSERS, BOOMERS, AND BUSTERS76赢家，输家，暴发户和亏损者76CHAPTER 4 CONSISTENCY: A STATE OF MIND84第04章 持续一致性：一种思想状态84THINKING ABOUT TRADING85思考交易85REALLY UNDERSTANDING RISK89完全明白风险89ALIGNING YOUR MENTAL ENVIRONMENT93让你的心理环境保持一致93CHAPTER 5 THE DYNAMICS OF PERCEPTION97第05章 认知的动力97DEBUGGING YOUR MENTA
19、L SOFTWARE99为你的心理软件找错99PERCEPTION AND LEARNING103认知和学习103PERCEPTION AND RISK110认知和风险110THE POWER OF ASSOCIATION110联想的力量110CHAPTER 6 THE MARKETS PERSPECTIVE119第06章 市场的角度119THE “UNCERTAINTY” PRINCIPLE120“不确定”原则120MARKETS MOST FUNDAMENTAL CHARACTERISTIC (IT CAN EXPRESS ITSELF IN AN ALMOST INFINITE COMB
20、INATION OF WAYS )126市场最基本的特征（它几乎可以用任何组合方式来表达自己）126CHAPTER 7 THE TRADERS EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES134第07章 交易者的优势：用概率思考134PROBABILITIES PARADOX: RANDOM OUTCOME, CONSISTENT RESULTS135概率的似非而是：随机的结果，持续一致的收入135TRADING IN THE MOMENT141有机会就交易141MANAGING EXPECTATIONS149管理期望149ELIMINATING THE EMOTIONAL
21、RISK157消灭情绪风险157CHAPTER 8 WORKING WITH YOUR BELIEFS162第08章 和你的信念一起工作162DEFINING THE PROBLEM162给问题下定义162DEFINING THE TERMS166对几个术语下定义166HOW THE FUNDAMENTAL TRUTHS RELATE TO THE SKILLS168这些基本事实和技术如何联系起来168MOVING TOWARD “THE ZONE”173逐渐进入“这个状态”173CHAPTER 9 THE NATURE OF BELIEFS174第09章 信念的本质174THE ORIGIN
22、S OF A BELIEF176信念的来源176BELIEFS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR LIVES180信念和它们对我们生活的影响180BELIEFS VS. THE TRUTH186信念和事实186CHAPTER 10 THE IMPACT OF BELIEFS ON TRADING189第10章 信念对交易的影响189THE PRIMARY CHARACTERISTICS OF A BELIEF191信念的基本特点191SELF EVALUATION AND TRADING208自我评估和交易208CHAPTER 11 THINKING LIKE A TRADER2
23、11第11章 像交易者一样思考211THE MECHANICAL STAGE213机械交易阶段213THE ROLE OF SELF-DISCIPLINE220自律的作用220CREATING A BELIEF IN CONSISTENCY227创造一个相信持续一致性的信念227EXERCISE: LEARNING TO TRADE AN EDGE LIKE A CASINO232练习：向赌场学习利用优势交易232A FINAL NOTE246最后的提醒246ATTITUDE SURVEY246态度调查246FOREWORD序言The great bull market in stocks h
24、as led to an equally great bull market in the number of books published on the subject of how to make money trading the markets. Many ideas abound, some good, some not, some original, some just a repackaging of earlier works. Occasionally, though, a writer comes forward with something that really se
25、ts him or her apart from the pack, something special. One such writer is Mark Douglas.大牛市导致出版社出了很多书，这些书的主题都是如何通过交易赚钱。书中有很多思维，有些很好，有些则不行，有些是原创的，有些只是把以前的作品再重新包装一下而已。偶尔有一些作者会脱颖而出，写出特殊的作品，其中一个这样的作者就是马克道格拉斯。Mark Douglas, in Trading in the Zone, has written a book that is the accumulation of years of thou
26、ght and research - the work of a lifetime - and for those of us who view trading as a profession, he has produced a gem.马克道格拉斯在交易心理分析一书中展示了多年的思考和研究成果这几乎是他一生的心血对于我们把交易当作职业的人来说，他给了我们一块宝石。Trading in the Zone is an in-depth look at the challenges that we face when we take up the challenge of trading. To
27、 the novice, the only challenge appears to be to find a way to make money. Once the novice learns that tips, brokers advice, and other ways to justify buying or selling do not work consistently, he discovers that he either needs to develop a reliable trading strategy or purchase one. After that, tra
28、ding should be easy, right? All you have to do is follow the rules, and the money will fall into your lap.我们在交易时会遇到挑战，交易心理分析则对这些挑战提供了深刻的见解。对于新手来说，唯一的挑战似乎就是找到赚钱的方法。一旦新手明白了消息、经纪公司的建议和其它买卖方法都不能持续一致赢利时，他发现要么自己开发一个可靠的交易系统，要么去买一个。完成了这个任务，交易就简单了，对不？你所要做的就是遵守原则，这样钱就来了。At this point, if not before, novices d
29、iscover that trading can turn into one of the most frustrating experiences they will ever face. This experience leads to the oft-started statistic that 95 percent of futures traders lose all of their money within the first year of trading. Stock traders generally experience the same results, which i
30、s why pundits always point to the fact that most stock traders fail to outperform a simple buy and hold investment scenario.如果新手们以前没有经历过的话，那么现在他们就会发现自己的交易进入了前所未有的艰难阶段。统计的结果表明，95%的期货交易者会在第一年把钱亏光，而新手就要经历这样的事。股票交易者通常也会体验同样的结果，这就是为什么专家说大部分股票交易者的业绩还不如买入并持有的投资策略。So, why do people, the majority of whom are
31、 extremely successful in other occupations, fail so miserably as traders? Are successful traders born and not made? Mark Douglas says no. Whats necessary, he says, is that the individual acquire the traders mindset. It sounds easy, but the fact is, this mindset is very foreign when compared with the
32、 way our life experiences teach us to think about the world.那么，为什么大部分人在做其它职业时超级成功，做交易时就输的这么惨呢？成功的交易者是天生的吗？马克道格拉斯说不是的，他说每个人必须有交易者的思维才行。这听起来很简单，但事实上，交易者的思维和生活中我们看待世界的方法完全不同。That 95-percent failure rate makes sense when you consider how most of us experience life, using skills learned as we grow. When
33、it comes to trading, however, it turns out that the skills we learn to earn high marks in school, advance our careers, and create relationships with other people, the skills we are taught that should carry us through life, turn out to be inappropriate for trading. Traders, we find out, must learn to
34、 think in terms of probabilities and to surrender all of the skills we have acquired to achieve in virtually every other aspect of our lives. In Trading in the Zone, Mark Douglas teaches us how. He has put together a very valuable book. His sources are his own personal experiences as a trader, a tra
35、ders coach in Chicago, author, and lecturer in his field of trading psychology.当你想想大部分人是如何经历生活的，如何使用成长中学到的技术的，你就明白95%的失败率是合理的。我们在学校努力得高分，在职业生涯中往上爬，和别人建立友好关系，这些都是我们在成长中学习的技术技巧，然而对于交易来说，这些技术技巧都是不合适的。我们发现交易者必须学习概率，并放弃我们在生活的方方面面学到的技术技巧。马克道格拉斯会在交易心理分析中告诉我们如何做到这点，他把这些认知溶于了这本很有价值的书。他自己是交易者、芝加哥的交易教练、作家、交易心理
36、老师，这些经验是本书的源泉。My recommendation? Enjoy DouglassTrading in the Zone and, in doing so, develop a traders mindset.我有什么推荐？我建议你阅读马克道格拉斯的交易心理分析并形成交易者的思维。Thorn Hartle索恩哈特尔PREFACE引子The goal of any trader is to turn profits on a regular basis, yet so few people ever really make consistent money as traders. W
37、hat accounts for the small percentage of traders who are consistently successful? To me, the determining factor is psychological - the consistent winners think differently from everyone else.每个交易者的目标都是稳定赚钱，但是只有极少数的交易者做到了持续一致地赚钱。他们是如何实现持续一致地赚钱的？对我来说，决定因素是心理上的持续一致的赢家和别人想的不一样。I started trading in 1978.
38、 At the time, I was managing a commercial casualty insurance agency in the suburbs of Detroit, Michigan. I had a very successful career and thought I could easily transfer that success into trading. Unfortunately, I found that was not the case. By 1981, I was thoroughly disgusted with my inability t
39、o trade effectively while holding another job, so I moved to Chicago and got a job as a broker with Merrill Lynch at the Chicago Board of Trade. How did I do? Well, within nine months of moving to Chicago, I had lost nearly everything I owned. My losses were the result of both my trading activities
40、and my exorbitant life style, which demanded that I make a lot of money as a trader.我1978年开始交易，当时我在密歇根州底特律市城郊管理一个商业的伤残保险分公司。我的职业生涯非常成功，我想我可以把我的成功移植到交易中。很不幸，我失败了。到了1981年，我对自己一方面要工作，一方面又交易不顺而彻底苦恼。于是我搬到芝加哥，在芝加哥交易所美林证券经纪公司找了一份工作，做经纪人。我做的如何？嗯，搬到芝加哥9个月后，我几乎失去了一切。我的生活作风比较奢侈，这本来就要求我作为交易者要多赚钱才行，可惜我的交易也不行，最终导
41、致我几乎一无所有。From these early experiences as a trader, I learned an enormous amount about myself, and about the role of psychology in trading. As a result, in 1982, I started working on my first book, The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes. When I began this project I had no concept of how
42、 difficult it was to write a book or explain something that I understood for myself in a manner and form that would be useful to other people. I thought it was going to take me between six and nine months to get the job done. It took seven and a half years and was finally published by Prentice Hall
43、in 1990. 通过早期的交易经历，我对自己和交易心理扮演的角色有了很多了解。于是，我在1982年开始写我的第一本书有纪律的交易者形成赢家态度。当我开始写书时，我才知道把自己的思想写成对别人有用的东西是多么地难。我本以为6到9个月就可以完成此书，结果我写了7年半，于1990年由普林蒂斯霍尔出版公司出版。In 1983, I left Merrill Lynch to start a consulting firm, Trading Behavior Dynamics, where I presently develop and conduct seminars on trading psyc
44、hology and act in the capacity of what is commonly referred to as a trading coach. Ive done countless presentations for trading companies, clearing firms, brokerage houses, banks, and investment conferences all over the world. Ive worked at a personal level, one on one, with virtually every type of
45、trader in the business, including some of the biggest floor traders, hedgers, option specialists, and CTAs, as well as neophytes.我在1983年离开了美林公司并创建了一个叫“交易行为动力”的咨询公司，我设计并主持研讨会，主要是讲交易心理方面的内容，我当时扮演的角色就是交易教练。我无数次地为全世界的交易公司、清算公司、经纪公司、银行、投资会议做演讲。我采用一对一的方式几乎和每种类型的交易者都接触过，这些交易者包括最大的场内交易者、避险者、期权专家、商品交易顾问和新手。A
46、s of this writing, I have spent the last seventeen years dissecting the psychological dynamics behind trading so that I could develop effective methods for teaching the proper principles of success. What Ive discovered is that, at the most fundamental level, there is a problem with the way we think.
47、 There is something inherent in the way our minds work that doesnt fit very well with the characteristics shown by the markets.当我写到这里时，我已经用了17年的时间剖析交易心理，所以我可以形成有效的方法把适当的成功原则传授给别人。我发现，从最基本的方面说，我们的思维方式有问题。我们天生的思维模式和市场特点是不搭配的。Those traders who have confidence in their own trades, who trust themselves to do what needs to be done without hesitation, are the ones who become successful. They no longer fear the erratic behavior of the market. They lear