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1、www.XiYuS锡育软件Because I usually take the role of trying to explain to peoplehow wonderful the new technologies that are coming alongare going to be,and I thought that,since I was amongfriends here,由于我经常 向人们解释 即将到来的新科技 将会多么的美妙 我想既然我跟各位朋友们一起在这00:12I would tell you what I really think and try to look ba
2、ck andtry to understand what is really going on here with theseamazing jumps in technology that seem so fast that we canbarely keep on top of it.就让我来说说我真正的想法 并试着回顾和理解 这到底是如何发生的 有了这些科技上的惊人进步。科技的进步似乎快到我们根本无法赶上它的脚步。00:25So Im going to start out by showing just one very boringtechnology slide.让我先从这开始 一页
3、很无趣的科技幻灯片。00:42And then,so if you can just turn on the slide thats on.然后可以开始放幻灯片了。（对工作人员说）00:47This is just a random slide that I picked out of my file.这只是我从我的文件中 随机挑选出的一张。00:53What I want to show you is not so much the details of theslide,but the general form of it.我想要你们看的并不是它的细节，而是它的总体形式。00:57This
4、 happens to be a slide of some analysis that we weredoing about the power of RISC microprocessors versus thepower of local area networks.这个是我们做的 关于RISC微处理器功率 与本地网路功率分析的幻灯片。01:02And the interesting thing about it is that this slide,like somany technology slides that were used to,is a sort of astraigh
5、t line on a semi-log curve.有趣的是 这页幻灯片 就像很多我们所熟悉的幻灯片一样，是半对数曲线图 上的一条直线。01:11start out:出发;着手进行 microprocessors:n.计微处理器(microprocessor的复数);计微处理机 versus:prep.对；与.相对；对抗 semi-log:adj.半对数的In other words,every step here represents an order ofmagnitude in performance scale.也就是这里的每一层，代表了性能程度 大小的一级。01:22And thi
6、s is a new thing that we talk about technology onsemi-log curves.在半对数曲线图上 讨论科技，这很新鲜。01:28Something really weird is going on here.这其中有点奇特。01:34And thats basically what Im going to be talking about.这基本上是我接下来要说的。01:36So,if you could bring up the lights.（对工作人员）麻烦开一下灯。01:39If you could bring up the light
7、s higher,because Im justgoing to use a piece of paper here.请把灯开亮点，因为我要用张纸。01:44Now why do we draw technology curves in semi-log curves?为什么我们要用对数曲线 描绘科技曲线呢？01:49Well the answer is,if I drew it on a normal curve where,letssay,this is years,this is time of some sort,and this is whatevermeasure of the t
8、echnology that Im trying to graph,thegraphs look sort of silly.嗯，答案是，如果我用普通曲线画，我们说，这是年份，这是某个时间，这是我准备画的 科技的某种测量值，这图看起来有点傻。01:53They sort of go like this.就有点像是这样。02:09And they dont tell us much.而且并没有提供什么资讯。02:12Now if I graph,for instance,some other technology,saytransportation technology,on a semi-lo
9、g curve,it would lookvery stupid,it would look like a flat line.现在，如果我画，比如说，另一种技术，像是交通运输，在半对数曲线上，它看起来很蠢，会像条很平的线。02:15magnitude:n.大小;量级;地震震级;重要;光度 curves:n.数曲线;弯曲状(curve的复数形式)/v.弯曲;使弯曲(curve的第三人称单数)bring up:提出;教育;养育;呕出;(船等)停下 graphs:n.数图形,图表;曲线图(graph的复数)/v.把绘入图;用图表表示;描绘(graph的第三人称单数)But when somethi
10、ng like this happens,things arequalitatively changing.但是如果出现像这种 质变的情况。02:25So if transportation technology was moving along as fast asmicroprocessor technology,then the day after tomorrow,如果交通运输技术 进步地像微处理器业一样快的话，那，后天02:29I would be able to get in a taxi cab and be in Tokyo in 30seconds.我就能搭一辆出租车 然后在
11、30秒内到东京。02:36TED演讲者：Danny Hillis|丹尼.希利斯演讲标题：Danny Hillis:Back to the future(of 1994)|回到未来（1994）内容概要：Inventor,scientist,author,engineer-over his broad career,Danny Hillis has turnedhis ever-searching brain on an array of subjects,with surprising results.从那被放在TED很后面的档案库里，丹尼.希利斯借着将生命本身的演化和科技变化的脚步是如何且为什
12、么看似不断的加速这两点展开，然后简单地论述了这个耐人寻味的看法。他所呈现的演说技巧或许看起来过时，但想法却是相当切题且有意义的。Its not moving like that.但它并没有进步得那么快。02:40And theres nothing precedented in the history oftechnology development of this kind of self-feeding growthwhere you go by orders of magnitude every few years.在科技发展历史中 也没有任何 这种自给自足，每几年程度翻倍增长的先例。0
13、2:42Now the question that Id like to ask is,if you look at theseexponential curves,they dont go on forever.现在我想要问的是，如果你观察这些指数曲线，他们并非永远的持续下去。02:51Things just cant possibly keep changing as fast as they are.事物不可能一直 改变得那么快。03:00One of two things is going to happen.两件事会发生，03:05Either its going to turn i
14、nto a sort of classical S-curve likethis,until something totally different comes along,or maybeits going to do this.要么它会变成像这样典型的S曲线 直到完全不同的情况出现。或是会变成这样。03:08qualitatively:adv.定性地;从品质上讲 microprocessor:n.计微处理器 go by:经过;顺便走访;凭判断 exponential:adj.指数的/n.指数 turn into:v.变成;进入Thats about all it can do.这就是所有可
15、能。03:18Now Im an optimist,so I sort of think its probably going todo something like that.现在我是个乐观主义者，所以我觉得它很有可能就会变成这样。03:20If so,that means that what were in the middle of right now isa transition.如果是这样，意味着我们目前所在的 是过渡阶段。03:25Were sort of on this line in a transition from the way theworld used to be t
16、o some new way that the world is.我们似乎在这条线上，在世界从过去 到将来的转变中。03:30And so what Im trying to ask,what Ive been asking myself,is whats this new way that the world is?所有我要问的，我一直在问自己的，就是这世界未来道路在哪？03:37Whats that new state that the world is heading toward?它趋向的新时代是什么样的？03:43Because the transition seems very,v
17、ery confusing when wereright in the middle of it.由于这个变化似乎非常，非常迷惑人，当我们正处于其中时。03:46Now when I was a kid growing up,the future was kind of theyear 2000,and people used to talk about what wouldhappen in the year 2000.我小时候，长大过程中 未来就像是20000年，人们都在讨论2000年将会发生什么。03:51Now heres a conference in which people ta
18、lk about thefuture,and you notice that the future is still at about the year2000.现在这个会议上，大家在讨论未来，而且你能发现这未来指的还是那个“2000年”。04:01Its about as far as we go out.这就是我们能达到的程度。04:08So in other words,the future has kind of been shrinking oneyear per year for my whole lifetime.换句话说，未来正在缩水，一生中 每年缩短一年。04:10optim
19、ist:n.乐观主义者;乐天派 conference:n.会议;讨论;协商;联盟;(正式)讨论会;工会,工党用语(每年的)大会/vi.举行或参加(系列)会议 shrinking:adj.畏缩的;犹豫不决的/v.萎缩(shrink的ing形式);收缩;退缩Now I think that the reason is because we all feel thatsomethings happening there.我想原因是 我们都感觉到 正在发生些什么。04:19That transition is happening.We can all sense it.变化正在发生。我们都能察觉到。0
20、4:25And we know that it just doesnt make too much sense tothink out 30,50 years because everythings going to be sodifferent that a simple extrapolation of what were doingjust doesnt make any sense at all.我们知道去考虑那未来的三、五十年 已经没什么意义了，因为每件事都将如此不同 以至于推测将来 不再有意义。04:27So what I would like to talk about is w
21、hat that could be,whatthat transition could be that were going through.所以我要聊聊 那会是怎样，我们正在经历的转变会是怎样。04:39Now in order to do that Im going to have to talk about abunch of stuff that really has nothing to do with technologyand computers.为达到这个目的，我得介绍一堆东西 它们与 科技和电脑完全无关。04:46Because I think the only way to
22、 understand this is to reallystep back and take a long time scale look at things.因为我决定理解这个的唯一方法 就是回顾过去 拉长时间轴去看。04:55So the time scale that I would like to look at this on is thetime scale of life on Earth.而我所要看的时间轴 是以地球上生命的时间尺来看。05:01So I think this picture makes sense if you look at it a fewbillion
23、 years at a time.我想这幅图合理了 如果你一次从几十亿年来看。05:10extrapolation:n.数外推法;推断 a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆 step back:后退,退后;无意义 at a time:一次;每次;在某时So if you go back about two and a half billion years,the Earthwas this big,sterile hunk of rock with a lot of chemicalsfloating around on it.如果回溯/所以如果你回溯个 大概25亿年，地球这么大，贫瘠的大块
24、石头 上面浮着些化学物质。05:16And if you look at the way that the chemicals got organized,we begin to get a pretty good idea of how they do it.要是观察 这些化学物质怎样组合的，我们开始弄明白它们怎么形成的。05:26And I think that theres theories that are beginning tounderstand about how it started with RNA,but Im going totell a sort of simple
25、story of it,which is that,at that time,我想有些理论是从理解 生命怎样从核糖核酸演变开始，但是我想讲一个生命简单的故事，就是，在那个时候，有一滴滴的油四处浮动，里面有各种不同化学成分组合。05:33tell a sort of simple story of it,which is that,at that time,there were little drops of oil floating around with all kinds ofdifferent recipes of chemicals in them.种不同化学成分组合。05:33www
26、.XiYuS锡育软件And some of those drops of oil had a particular combinationof chemicals in them which caused them to incorporatechemicals from the outside and grow the drops of oil.有些油滴 里面含有特殊的化学构成 这导致它们可以从外界聚集化学物质 并慢慢变大。05:49And those that were like that started to split and divide.像这样的油滴 又开始分化，分离。05:59A
27、nd those were the most primitive forms of cells in a sense,those little drops of oil.最原始的那些在某种程度上形成了细胞，这些小小的油滴。06:03sterile:adj.不育的;无菌的;贫瘠的;不毛的;枯燥乏味的 hunk:n.大块,大片;厚块;(俚语)强壮/adj.好的;行的 recipes:食谱/方法incorporate:vt.包含,吸收;体现;把合并/vi.合并;混合;组成公司/adj.合并的;一体化的;组成公司的 in a sense:在某种意义上But now those drops of oil
28、 werent really alive,as we say itnow,because every one of them was a little random recipe ofchemicals.但目前为止这些油滴不是真的活的，在我们现在看来，因为每一个 都是化学物质的随机合成。06:08And every time it divided,they got sort of unequal divisionof the chemicals within them.每分裂一次，都不是平均分布 内部的化学物。06:15And so every drop was a little bit di
29、fferent.所以每个油滴都有点不同。06:22In fact,the drops that were different in a way that causedthem to be better at incorporating chemicals around them,grew more and incorporated more chemicals and dividedmore.实际上，油滴不同的方式 是让它们能更好地 集成周围的化合物，长得更大，吸收更多，分裂更多。06:25So those tended to live longer,get expressed more.所以
30、它们会活得更长，表现得更多。06:34Now thats sort of just a very simple chemical form of life,butwhen things got interesting was when these drops learned atrick about abstraction.这就有点像个很简单的 生命的化学形式，但过程变得有趣 是当这些油滴 学会了一个提供资讯的技巧时。06:39Somehow by ways that we dont quite understand,theselittle drops learned to write dow
31、n information.不知怎么用我们不能完全理解的方式，这些小油滴学会了记录资讯。06:52unequal:adj.不平等的;不规则的;不胜任的/n.不等同的事物 in a way:在某种程度上;有点儿;十分激动 incorporating:adj.合并的/v.合并(incorporate的ing形式)incorporated:adj.合并的;组成法人组织的/v.合并;包含;组成公司(incorporate的过去分词)tended:vi.趋向,倾向;照料,照顾/vt.照料,照管 expressed:v.表达(express的过去式和过去分词);(用符号等)表示;榨;(如在说话,写作或绘画
32、中)表达(自己)的意见 abstraction:n.抽象;提取;抽象概念;空想;心不在焉 write down:写下;减低帐面价值;把描写成They learned to record the information that was the recipe ofthe cell onto a particular kind of chemical called DNA.它们学会把 细胞形成的秘诀 记录到一种特殊物质上，叫做去氧核糖核酸。06:58So in other words,they worked out,in this mindless sort ofevolutionary way,
33、a form of writing that let them write downwhat they were,so that that way of writing it down could getcopied.也就是说，它们想出了，以这种随性的进化方式，可以写下它们是什么的记录方式，以便这种记录方式能被复制。07:06The amazing thing is that that way of writing seems to havestayed steady since it evolved two and a half billion yearsago.惊奇的是这种记录方式 似乎可
34、以保持稳定 由于它25亿年前演化出来的。07:17In fact the recipe for us,our genes,is exactly that same codeand that same way of writing.实际上我们，我们的基因的组成 就是完全一样的代码，一样的记录方式。07:24In fact,every living creature is written in exactly the same setof letters and the same code.实际上，任何生物都是 用完全一样的字母和代码记录下来的。07:30In fact,one of the th
35、ings that I did just for amusementpurposes is we can now write things in this code.实际上，我所做的 仅是为了娱乐效果的一件事 就是我们能用这个代码记录事件。07:35And Ive got here a little 100 micrograms of white powder,which I try not to let the security people see at airports.我这有100微克的白粉，我尽力不让机场安检人员发现它们。07:41(Laughter)But this has in
36、it-what I did is I took this code-the code has standard letters that we use for symbolizing it-and I wrote my business card onto a piece of DNA andamplified it 10 to the 22 times.（笑声）不过这里面有代码 我所做的是我拿着这代码 它里面有我们用来标记它的标准字母，然后我把我的名片写到一条去氧核糖核酸上 再放大10到22倍。07:51mindless:adj.愚蠢的;不小心的;不需要动脑筋的;不顾虑的 evolution
37、ary:adj.进化的;发展的;渐进的 micrograms:n.微克;微观图,显微照片 airports:n.航机场;航航空港(airport的复数形式)symbolizing:象征,作为的象征/用符号表示(symbolize的现在分词)So if anyone would like a hundred million copies of mybusiness card,I have plenty for everyone in the room,and,infact,everyone in the world,and its right here.所以如果有人需要数百万我的名片，我有足够多
38、分给在座每个人，甚至是全世界每个人，就在这。08:06(Laughter)If I had really been a egotist,I would have put itinto a virus and released it in the room.（笑声）要是我是个自大的人，我就会把它放到病毒里散布到屋子中。08:16(Laughter)So what was the next step?（笑声）所以下一步是什么？08:28Writing down the DNA was an interesting step.记录去氧核糖核酸是有趣的一步。08:38And that caused t
39、hese cells-that kept them happy foranother billion years.它导致了细胞的形成 让它们又高兴了几十亿年。08:40But then there was another really interesting step wherethings became completely different,which is these cellsstarted exchanging and communicating information,so thatthey began to get communities of cells.不过还有个很有趣的环
40、节 事情开始变得完全不同，那就是这些细胞开始交换和交流资讯，从而形成细胞团体。08:44I dont know if you know this,but bacteria can actuallyexchange DNA.我不知道你们是否知道这个，细菌实际上就可以交换去氧核糖核酸。08:54Now thats why,for instance,antibiotic resistance hasevolved.这就是为什么，比如，演变出抗菌免疫。08:58Some bacteria figured out how to stay away from penicillin,and it went
41、around sort of creating its little DNA informationwith other bacteria,and now we have a lot of bacteria thatare resistant to penicillin,because bacteria communicate.有些细菌知道怎么远离青霉素，然后它创造它这点去氧核糖核酸资讯，并在别的细菌中到处游走，现在我们有很多对青霉素免疫的细菌了，因为细菌会交流资讯。09:02egotist:n.自高自大者;言必称“我”者(形容词egotistic,副词egotistically)exchan
42、ging:v.交换;交流(exchange的ing形式);兑换/adj.交换的 bacteria:n.微细菌 antibiotic:adj.抗生的;抗菌的/n.抗生素,抗菌素 penicillin:n.盘尼西林(青霉素)Now what this communication allowed was communities toform that,in some sense,were in the same boat together;they were synergistic.这样，这些交流致使 群落的形成，在某种意义上，它们在同一条船上了；它们是协作的。09:15So they surviv
43、ed or they failed together,which means that ifa community was very successful,all the individuals in thatcommunity were repeated more and they were favored byevolution.因此它们一起幸存下来 或者一起死去，也就是说如果一个群落成功了，所有群落里的个体 都能复制更多，在进化更有利。09:23Now the transition point happened when these communitiesgot so close tha
44、t,in fact,they got together and decided towrite down the whole recipe for the community together onone string of DNA.于是，转换点到了，当这些族群很亲近时，事实上，它们聚集到一起 并决定在一起在一条去氧核糖核酸上 写下整个族群的成分谱。09:36And so the next stage thats interesting in life took aboutanother billion years.生命中下一个有趣的阶段 又要几十亿年。09:48And at that sta
45、ge,we have multi-cellular communities,communities of lots of different types of cells,workingtogether as a single organism.在这个时期，有多细胞族群，就是有很多种不同细胞的群落，作为有机体一起合作。09:52And in fact,were such a multi-cellular community.实际上，我们就是这样的多细胞族群。10:00We have lots of cells that are not out for themselves anymore.我们
46、有很多细胞，它们不再是只为自己存活。10:03Your skin cell is really useless without a heart cell,muscle cell,a brain cell and so on.皮肤细胞根本没用，要是没有心脏细胞，肌肉细胞，脑细胞等等。10:07in the same boat:处境相同;面临同样的危险 synergistic:adj.协同的;协作的,协同作用的 favored:adj.有利的;受到优待的;受到喜爱的/v.赞成;宠爱;帮助(favor的过去分词);给以恩惠So these communities began to evolve so
47、 that the interestinglevel on which evolution was taking place was no longer acell,but a community which we call an organism.所以这些族群开始进化 这样发生有趣的进化的 不再仅仅是单一细胞。而是我们称为机体的族群。10:14Now the next step that happened is within thesecommunities.接下来发生 就是在这些族群中。10:25These communities of cells,again,began to abstr
48、actinformation.这些细胞群落，再次，开始提取资讯。10:29And they began building very special structures that didnothing but process information within the community.它们开始构建非常特别的 专门处理群落内资讯的结构。10:33And those are the neural structures.这些就是神经结构。10:39So neurons are the information processing apparatus thatthose communities
49、of cells built up.所以神经元是 这些细胞群建立的资讯处理仪器。10:41And in fact,they began to get specialists in the communityand special structures that were responsible for recording,understanding,learning information.实际上，群落里开始出现专家 以及特殊结构 负责记录，理解，学习资讯。10:47And that was the brains and the nervous system of thosecommuniti
50、es.这就是这些细胞群的 大脑和神经系统。10:56And that gave them an evolutionary advantage.这给了它们进化的有利条件。11:00Because at that point,an individual-learning could happenwithin the time span of a single organism,instead of over thisevolutionary time span.因为这样的话，对每个个体 学习可以发生在单个机体的时间范围内，而不是整个进化时间跨度。11:02neural:adj.神经的;神经系统的;